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The editors are pleased to announce that the winner of the best paper prize for 2023 is Addis Yimer for his paper titled, 'The effects of FDI on economic growth in Africa', published in volume 32, issue 1, pages 2–36. We congratulate Dr. Yımer, who will receive a prize of 500 pounds. [Extracted from the article]

This paper empirically examines how exports respond to exchange rate movements (exchange rate and exchange rate volatility) at the micro and macro levels using Turkey’s bilateral export data with 65 partner countries. Panel data contaninig 65 cross-sectional dimensions and 60 monthly time series dimensions from 2018:01 to 2022:12 are used. The empirical results of the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique show that the negative effect of exchange rate volatility on micro export flows is amplified. Moreover, the potential positive effect of the exchange rate on micro export flows is weaker. Our findings are robust against the alternative method of exchange rate volatility and nominal exchange rate volatility. Our results are also intact under alternative robustness tests. The paper provides notable policy implications. Policymakers should be aware of the potential structural differences between micro and macro exports. Therefore, policymakers should also consider other aspects such as cross-border e-commerce when formulating economic policies on microexports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the database of China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2011 to 2018, this paper explores the impact of trade openness on migrants’ marriage, and reveals that trade openness increases migrants’ divorce rate significantly. The potential mechanism analysis finds that trade openness affects migrants’ divorce rate through the channel of their marriage value. Besides, the heterogeneity test indicates that the impacts of trade openness on migrants’ marriage are heterogeneous across different regions, social and cultural environments, gender groups, and migration circles. Furthermore, the moderating effect analysis reveals that Confucian culture can weaken the impact of trade openness on migrants’ divorce rate, which has a negative moderating effect on the relation between trade openness and migrants’ divorce rate. Finally, this paper provides supporting evidence for the fact that trade openness does affect migrants’ marriage and thus offers a possible explanation for the continuously increasing divorce rate in China from the perspective of trade openness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital finance is reshaping trade credit. This study investigates the influence of digital finance on trade credit among A-share listed companies in China from 2011 to 2020. The paper matches this data with city-level digital finance index (DFI) data. Empirical results indicate that digital finance significantly benefits trade credit. This impact occurs through bank competition, regulatory penalties, and disclosure quality channels. Different levels of digital finance development and financing constraints of companies have a varying impact on trade credit. This paper provides a new perspective on trade credit in the firm's supply chain that enriches theoretical research on digital finance. The research results can help the country to implement digital finance development strategy better and offer relevant guidance and reference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much effort has been devoted to understanding how trade openness is linked to technological progress. Less documented is the effect on green technology, which is particularly important as it is green technological progress that alleviates environmental degradation while improving economic growth. To fill the void, this paper empirically examines whether trade openness drives green technology development and whether the effect depends on the extent of trade openness and environmental policy stringency. In a sample covering both advanced and developing countries, the paper finds that green technology first decreases and then rises with increased trade openness, meaning that a sufficient level of trade openness is required for green technological progress. Tighter environmental policy is also found to weaken the beneficial effect of trade openness on green technological progress, implying that lax environmental policy creates a better environment for more open countries to develop green technology. However, these effects vary across countries, depending on the origin and destination of trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production and consumption activities are cross-border and therefore, it is important to understand the role of Global Value Chains (GVCs) in fulfilling a country’s specific climate commitments. This study examines the causal relationship between selected GVC indices and CO2 emissions. We use the GVC position index, considered robust in comparison to the frequently used GVC participation index, for determining the impact on emissions. The forward and backward participation indices are considered in the analysis. The paper presents an analysis of 62 developing and developed economies from 1995 to –2018 using the Juodis A., Y. Karavias, and V. Sarafidis [2021. “A Homogeneous Approach to Testing for Granger non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels.” Empirical Economics 60 (1): 93–112] approach, which is an improvement over the traditional approaches to analysing causality. The results show that the overall position in GVCs positively affects CO2 emissions for developing countries but a causal relationship does not exist for the developed countries. The developed countries attain a higher participation index but a lower position index. On the other hand, developing countries with fewer stringent environmental regulations may opt for an upstream position (more export-oriented) and by design specialize in more pollution-intensive industries. Noteworthy, production-based emissions in developed countries are reduced because of an increase in imports of emission-intensive products from developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on analysing the effects of sector orientation and the origin of FDI on the types of corruption. The GMM technique and the IV-2SLS on a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries were used. Globally, we find that FDI increases political corruption in SSA. Moreover, the study shows that sector orientation and the origin of FDI have significant effects on each type of corruption. Primary sector FDI enhances public sector corruption and reduces judicial corruption. Secondary sector FDI increases executive, public, and judicial corruption. In the tertiary sector, executive and public corruption are enhanced while judiciary corruption is reduced. Regarding the origin, FDI from France increases public sector corruption whereas FDI from China and the USA reduces it. Executive corruption is reduced by FDI, regardless of its origin. FDI from France and the USA discourages judiciary corruption while FDI from China increases it. FDI from China reduces legislative corruption, while FDI from the USA tends to increase it. Furthermore, the analysis of the transmission channels shows education and development levels as important channels through which FDI could reduce corruption in SSA. Relevant policy implications derived from this study include the necessity for policy-makers to combat all types of corruption and mostly public corruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the way that intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection as a moderator variable affects firm-level productivity gains through innovation (filing patents) and diffusion (importing goods). Applying the estimation method of conditional average treatment effect by Lee, Okui, and Whang (2017) to Chinese firm data, I show the graphic representation of the non-linearity that characterizes the heterogeneous average treatment effects of patenting and importing activities on firm productivity. The graphic results suggest that the productivity effect of patenting is positively influenced by local IPRs protection, while that of importing is initially negatively and subsequently positively affected by IPRs protection. I also find that overstrict protection of IPRs may diminish the productivity impact of both channels, and private-owned firms rely more on IPRs protection to enhance productivity through filing patents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the effect of export diversification on income inequality in Central Africa through the employment channel. The sample consists of 9 countries over the period 2000–2019. A quadratic regression is applied to a panel data model using the random effect and the two stages least squares methods. The results show that export diversification increases income inequality in Central Africa. However, this effect is non-linear with the form of an inverted U. Increasing the number of wage workers reduces the marginal effect of export diversification on income inequality while increasing the number of unpaid workers increases this effect. Moreover, diversification is less likely to reduce income inequality when it increases male employment than when it increases female employment. The effect of diversification on income inequality remains non-linear in an inverted U-shape for CEMAC countries' members (CEMAC: Economic and Monetary Community of Central African States) and oil-producing countries, while it is non-linear in a U-shape for non-CEMAC countries and non-oil-producing countries. We recommend that Central African countries promote the diversification of exports while encouraging new productive activities to generate more paid jobs and to favor female employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how firm heterogeneity plays a role in trade deflection effects when exporters exit trading partners' markets with trade-restrictive measures and deflect exports toward third markets with less stringent ones. We develop a Cournot-type three-country theoretical framework that highlights the role of firm productivity in trade deflection effects of trade-restrictive measures and empirically examine research hypotheses using a firm–product–destination level panel data of Korean exporting firms during the 1996–2010 period. We find that highly productive firms facing higher tariffs are more likely to deflect export to new third-country markets with lower tariffs as alternatives. However, once they enter the third destination, the positive effect of tariffs on the deflection of trade volume is less prominent for highly productive firms due to a lower trade destruction effect for them. Our results imply that the magnitude of trade deflection at both the intensive and extensive margins can be heterogeneous across firm productivity and multi-destination status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2012, sales tax was replaced in China with value-added tax (VAT). This study evaluates the effect of this change on service exports. VAT reform was introduced across provinces and service sectors at different times. Hence, our paper identifies the impacts of VAT reform on firms' export behavior by utilizing a difference-in-difference (DID) estimation methodology and finds that VAT reform significantly increases service exports in intensive and extensive margins. The export-enhancing effects are larger for non-state-owned enterprises and firms of larger scale and higher productivity levels. VAT reform alleviates tax magnification and double taxation and effectively promotes the competitiveness of China's service exports. With the complete implementation of VAT reform, alongside the full refund of VAT on exported products, China's service exports would increase by approximately two-and-a-half times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the digital age, digital services not only provide important intermediate inputs for manufacturing but they also affect the availability of other potentially ICT-enabled high-quality services as intermediate inputs. Therefore, it is particularly important and meaningful to explore the relationship between the liberalization of trade in digital services and manufacturing exports. This paper uses a panel dataset of bilateral exports of 15 manufacturing sectors in 54 countries, from 2014 to 2018, to examine the impact of digital services trade policy restrictions on exports of manufactured goods. The main results suggest that the impact of trade policy restrictions on manufacturing exports is mixed but mainly negative. Moreover, regulatory differences in digital services industries between bilateral country pairs also have a significant negative impact on the export performance of manufacturing industries. In addition, we further examine the heterogeneity of this impact mechanism across different policy areas, manufacturing sectors, and bilateral country-pair groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs a depth index of the regional trade agreement (RTA) digital trade terms based on text data from 2000–2021 in the TAPED database and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission data from the Eora database since 2000. We construct a gravity model between the depth index of digital trade terms and carbon CO2 emissions to analyze the impact of digital trade terms in RTAs on the CO2 emissions of member countries. The results show that the depth of digital trade clauses in RTAs significantly reduces the CO2 emissions of member countries. Still, the impact of different clause depth indexes on CO2 emissions is different on the supply and consumption sides. The results of the heterogeneity analysis based on the types of trade agreements show that the depth of RTAs has the most significant impact on the CO2 emissions among members of South–North trade agreements. The analysis of results based on industry heterogeneity shows that digital trade terms significantly impact manufacturing CO2 emissions. The article proposes that more attention be paid to the negotiation of digital trade rules in RTAs, the construction of South–North trade agreements, and the impact of digital trade on the CO2 emissions of different industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between digital economy and signal information on firms‘ markup has been overlooked and not well explained, especially in the emerging economies. When there is information asymmetry or too much information, the export decisions of firms are not completed independently, but the result of the comprehensive trade-off of the export signals issued by the 'neighbors'. This paper discusses the impact of the development of digital economy on the markup of export firms by distinguishing two perspectives of export signal, namely herd behavior and peer effect. We find that the digital economy has a positive impact on firm markup. There is substitution effect in digital economy and export signals, and digital economy acts price bonus by influencing export signals. The growing popularity of market signals could offset some of the advantages of the digital economy on export markup for companies. In addition, our paper finds that foreign-owned firms, large-scale firms, highly competitive industries and non-digital economy industries adjust their markups more significantly when they were affected by export signals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a quantitative trade model, this paper evaluates the trade and welfare effects of deep trade agreements in an application to China joining the RCEP and CPTPP. By feeding trade cost shocks from the changes in RTA deepness into the model, we find substantial gains from incorporating legal enforceability and dispute settlement provisions in both agreements. With the CPTPP being deeper than the RCEP, our counterfactual exercise of China joining the CPTPP shows that 69% of its welfare gains come from deepening RCEP provisions to the CPTPP level. For the RCEP members, the gains from deepening non-tariff-related core provisions are quantitatively important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper builds an open country theoretical model to analyse the spillover impact of the US monetary policy tightening shock on China's economy. GVAR empirical model is employed combined with 22 countries and obtain three main results. First, the US monetary tightening shock causes the rise of the international risk index and the bilateral real exchange rate (the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the RMB). Second, both China's current account and China's capital outflow show the increased trends combined with the weighted role of foreign economies. Third, as the negative effect of China's capital outflow is higher than the positive effect of China's current account, China's real output declines caused by the US monetary tightening shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on the impact of financial inclusion on the instability of household consumption remains controversial. In this article, we considered the possibility that countries follow different regimes of household consumption instability and tested the hypothesis of whether financial inclusion is countercyclical or procyclical to a country's regime of consumption instability. Thus, relying on recent works that used the finite mixture regression method, we identify the different regimes of household consumption instability. Drawing on a sample of 28 developing countries over the period 2011–2020, the paper highlights that the impact of financial inclusion on consumption instability differs across classes and a three-class model best describes the sample. Specifically, we show that financial inclusion is positively associated with consumption instability in the first class, while financial inclusion significantly reduces consumption instability in the second class. Financial inclusion does not have a significant impact on the third class. Furthermore, exploring the potential role of democracy in determining class affiliation, the results emphasize that developing countries would fully benefit from financial inclusion by undertaking strong reforms to improve democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs a unique dataset of Chinese firm-level bilateral cross-border e-commerce exports using the back-end online logistics database of a famous Chinese logistics platform to study the impact of destination country’s institutional quality on Chinese cross-border e-commerce export. Our results show that the institutional quality of destination countries significantly boosts China’s cross-border e-commerce exports. Institutional quality has a more significant effect on the extensive margin than the intensive margin. Mechanism analysis shows that institutional quality significantly stimulates export entry, export survival, and continuous exports. Furthermore, destination country’s institutional quality has a greater impact on cross-border e-commerce export than on traditional export. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Export product diversification accelerates economic growth by helping the nations to escape the commodity dependence trap, reducing the volatility of terms of trade, and stabilizing export revenues. Creative industries are the emerging and evolving industrial sectors that affect the export basket's composition of nations and its growth effects. In this paper, for the first time, we calculated the diversification level of creative products’ export basket using three measures including Theil and GINI inequality indices and Herfindahl–Hirschman concentration index for the top ten exporters including China, the US, France, Italy, the UK, Germany, India, Switzerland, Singapore, and the Netherlands. In addition, we analyzed the effects of diversification of creative products’ export basket on the economic growth of the countries over the period 2002–2020. Our results indicate the diversification level of the creative products’ basket in Switzerland, the US, France, and China decreased over the period, while for Germany and the Netherlands, it increased over recent years. For other countries, the indexes do not show significant fluctuations. By estimating a Barro-type growth regression model and also panel Granger non-causality test, we found creative products’ diversification acts as a pro-growth factor in the countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of English as a lingua franca on FDI by using the bilateral FDI data between China and 36 OECD countries. We find that English as a lingua franca significantly promotes FDI between China and OECD countries; the impact of English proficiency on outward FDI is greater than that on inward FDI in China; the improvement of English proficiency is more conducive to promoting China's FDI with non-English-speaking countries than with English-speaking countries. Our findings suggest that English can be an effective lingua franca to remove language barriers in FDI for developing countries, especially when the investing partners are high-income and non-English-speaking countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of official visits by U.S. Presidents and Secretaries of State on foreign direct investment inflows. The key difficulty in determining a causal effect is the issue of endogeneity. To address potential endogeneity, we use the Endogenous Treatment model (ETM). The estimation results provide evidence that the official visits of U.S. Presidents have a statistically significant positive effect on both foreign investment inflows from the U.S. and on total foreign direct investment inflows. This is robust even after the inclusion of other control variables identified by the literature as confounding factors for foreign direct investment. When we examine the effect of different types of visits, the results show that bilateral meetings during the official visits of U.S. Presidents have a statistically significant positive effect on both foreign investment inflows from the U.S. and total foreign direct investment. These results imply that the visits of U.S. Presidents offer a signal of the confidence of American administrations in the host country, which may in turn encourage American and non-American firms to invest in that country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine how foreign direct investment inflows in agriculture affect the agricultural exports of developing countries. The main objective of our analysis is to identify and quantify the export effects of foreign direct investment in the sector, as well as the effects of other relevant export determinants, and to explore the possible long-run relationship between the variables. Using panel data on 80 developing countries observed in the period 2005-2017, we employ the system-generalised method of moments and the method of quasi-maximum likelihood to estimate a dynamic agricultural exports model. Additionally, we test for the cointegration between exports and foreign direct investment using the Pedroni and Kao approaches. We find that foreign direct investment inflows have a positive impact on agricultural exports in the analysed countries in both the short run and the long run. Thereby, we identified the significance of both direct and spillover export effects. This implies that the liberalisation and promotion of foreign investment in agriculture could alleviate the problems of capital scarcity and constraints in developing countries and increase their agricultural export competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For developing economies, exporting broadens the horizon for facilitating effective integration into the global economy and improving overall competitiveness. While small developing states are particularly at high risk given their fundamental characteristics, the expected impact of these exogenous shocks on small resource dependent economies are amplified given the high possibility of lower levels of diversification. This paper therefore assesses the determinants of exports and exporting potential of SIDS (small island developing states) with a focus on Caribbean resource-based countries. Using non resource exports, in an aggregate and disaggregate form, as the dependent variable, the traditional gravity model was augmented to include a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index, the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the exporter and the export sophistication (EXPY) index. The main findings indicate that an appreciation of the REER has an inverse impact on exports of non-resource commodities and that trade according to comparative advantage and differences in export sophistication occurs mainly in the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is aimed at investigating the influence of the institutional quality of the host country on China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from a binary margin perspective. The quality of the host country's system is assumed to have a positive impact on the extensive margin of OFDI in terms of political stability (PS), regulatory quality (RQ), the rule of law (RL), and the control of corruption (CC); however, such system quality inhibits the growth of the intensive margin via RQ, voice and accountability (VA). We further find that institutional differences and the extensive margin of OFDI have a negative relationship. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the host country's institutional quality significantly contributes to the extensive margin of investment when the host country is a non-low-income country, the investment is nongreenfield investment, and the industry invested in is the real estate industry. There is a moderating effect of investment motives on the relationship between host country institutional quality and OFDI where host country institutional quality positively affects the extent of investment when the investment motive is market seeking and negatively affects the extent of investment when the investment motive is natural resource seeking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the data from CHIP and IPUMS, this paper examines the impact of export servitization of Chinese cities on individuals’ marriage and childbearing performance. The results show that the deepening of export servitization may lead to a decline in the odds of getting married and having babies, resulting in a decrease in marriage and fertility levels. The heterogeneity analysis finds that the negative effect of increased export servitization leading to a decrease in individuals’ marriage and childbearing behaviors is more pronounced for individuals in eastern and central cities with more prosperous economies and better development of service and education, as well as individuals with lower income and education, females, women aged 20–34 and men aged 22–36, the Han ethnicity, and individuals of rural hukou. Furthermore, we investigate the channels through which export servitization affects individuals’ marriage and childbearing performance, and the results confirm that export servitization promotes income growth and the improvement of economic conditions reduces the demand for marriage and children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pilot free trade zones (PFTZs) is a significant result of China's institutional innovation. The analysis examines the role of PFTZs in narrowing economic gap in China using provincial data from 2000 to 2019. This paper firstly measures the current situation and trend of economic development gap in China, and sorts out the mechanism of the institutional innovation on narrowing the economic gap. Secondly, the empirical test is conducted by difference in differences method and finds as follows. (1) PFTZs have positive effect on narrowing the economic gap. (2) PFTZs have more significant effect on the northern provinces and provinces with better business environment. (3)PFTZs narrow the economic gap by saving transaction costs. Based on the results of this test, this study proposes corresponding countermeasures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between international linkages (i.e. exporting, importing, and foreign direct investment) and the share of skilled, unskilled, and total female workers employed in Indonesian manufacturing plants. We utilize plant-level panel data and estimation procedures that account for endogeneity and selection issues to achieve the study objective. Our analysis suggests that foreign ownership and exporting activities lead to a higher share of both skilled and unskilled female employment. However, these effects are more substantial for skilled female workers than for unskilled female workers. The results are robust to the use of different econometric methods and empirical specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examines the determinants of ICT-enabled service trade, in particular, the relative importance of human and physical capital. The analysis is carried out for 45 major service trading countries as well as for separate country groups classified based on ICT-service trade balance. It is found that mobile connectivity, foreign investment, world demand, growing manufacturing sector, and more favourable business environment are important determinants of net ICT-enabled service exports. The result is in contrast with traditional services like travel and transportation. Broadband connection, as well as mobile, has a significant impact on net export of travel and transportation. Better human capital is favourable for services overall whereas, travel-transport sector engages low-skilled workers. The results have important policy implications for developing countries constrained by the availability of human and physical capital. The service sector, especially ICT-enabled services, can play a critical role in the post-pandemic recovery by generating employment opportunities and ensuring stable foreign exchange earnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper theoretically examines the effect of an expansionary monetary policy on export quality and its ramifications on the aggregate employment of the unskilled workers in a competitive general equilibrium framework of a small open economy. Monetary policies are often pursued by the central bank of an economy to manage exchange rate fluctuations under a managed float regime, which may have adverse consequences for export-quality choices and thereby for export growth given the growing preference of buyers in richer nations for higher qualities of imports. Under optimal allocation of wealth over a portfolio of cash, domestic assets and foreign assets, we show that an increase in the domestic money supply affects the choice of export-quality through larger investment, capital formation and consequent endowment effect and through changes in the nominal exchange rate. Under less price-elastic demand for a non-traded good, export quality is upgraded when quality upgrading is relatively capital (than skill) intensive. The expansionary monetary policy may raise aggregate employment of unskilled workers due to larger investment and capital formation, but may lower it through changes in the quality of the export good. The overall effect is thus ambiguous. A larger initial size of bequests has a similar effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between financial development and FDI and between financial development and trade openness in boosting domestic investment. Initially, this paper examined this issue for panel data sample of 161 countries over 1995–2018. Considering the issue of aggregation bias due to heterogeneous nature of countries in the sample, this complementarity or substitutability effect between financial development and FDI as well as financial development and trade openness have further been re-examined by using 129 developing country samples. Using panel fixed effects (FE) and two-step system GMM estimation technique, the empirical results demonstrate the substitutability between financial development and FDI as well as a substitutability relationship between financial development and trade openness in driving domestic investment. The results hold for both the samples and also in alternative measures of financial development and extended specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that the economic upgrading of suppliers in global value chains (GVCs) is influenced by the prevailing governance structures in supplier-lead firm relationships. Using a novel governance index for Philippine and Thai manufacturers, this paper tests if tight effective control received by suppliers can be detrimental to higher-order GVC upgrading. The unique 2012 Survey on Adjustments of Establishments to Globalization was used to calculate the index for Philippine manufacturers, while the World Bank’s Productivity and Investment Climate Study 2006–2007 was used for Thailand. The econometric results confirm that tight governance negatively affects upgrading in both countries. Specifically, the Philippine estimates show that tight governance has no impact on process upgrading given that: (1) all GVCs benefit from efficient suppliers, regardless of governance structures; and (2) process upgrading has relatively simpler technological requirements than higher-order upgrading. Tight governance significantly reduces the probability of achieving more sophisticated product, functional, and intersectoral upgrading, especially when this encroaches on the lead firm’s core functions. But since governance and control are necessary for efficient GVC operations, suppliers must conscientiously build capabilities and networks to move up the upgrading ladder. For weak-capability suppliers, innovation networks are important external sources of technology and knowledge spillovers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several econometric studies, some undertaken for industrialised countries and some for emerging economies, have found that export participation by industrial enterprises tends to lower their energy intensity and CO2 emissions intensity. Similar studies undertaken for Indian manufacturing firms using firm-level data have also reached the same conclusion. This paper uses plant-level data for 2008–2015 to examine the impact of export intensity on the energy intensity of Indian manufacturing. The use of plant-level data has the advantage of incorporating location-specific differences into the analysis, such as the contribution of renewable energy sources (solar, wind, etc.) to the power supply in the state in which the plant is located. The paper finds a significant negative effect of export intensity on energy intensity, confirming earlier findings. Also, on a relative scale, the energy-efficiency-enhancing effect of exporting is larger for relatively more energy-intensive industries. Further, increases in the share of renewable energy in the power supply make industries more energy efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the effect of anti-dumping investigations on export firm innovation performance using Chinese firm-level patent filings data and anti-dumping case from 2000 to 2013. By employing the staggered difference-in-differences strategy, our empirical evidence shows that anti-dumping investigations imposed on firms lead to an improvement in innovation rather than suppression. Further examination identifies that the trade diversion effect is a crucial mechanism through which anti-dumping investigations affect firm innovation. We find that firms are experiencing a significant increase in exports of investigated products to non-involved countries, while also expanding their export destinations and diversifying the range of exported products. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that anti-dumping charges significantly promote innovation in high-productivity firms and multi-product exporting enterprises, while financial constraints are identified as a crucial factor restricting innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effect of trade with China on the European Union's industrial and regional employment. Built on a canonical multi-country Ricardian model, we identify and estimate the employment reallocation effect across fifteen EU countries with specific discussions on three channels: import penetration, direct export, and third-market competition vis-à-vis China. Data suggest that the adverse effects stemming from the import penetration and the third-market competition quantitatively dominate the positive effect from the export channel for the effect on the EU. In particular, the third-market competition channel is a key channel for understanding the impact of China trade shock on the EU market, accounting for about 46% and 36% of the total negative effect at the industry level and region level, respectively. Moreover, the third-market competition channel particularly influenced the relative employment growth of the worst-affected industries in the European market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the literature on the drivers of export diversification by tackling an issue that has received scant attention in this literature, that is, the effect of women empowerment on export product diversification in developing countries. The analysis focuses on a sample of 106 developing countries covering the period 2002–2018. The results suggest that women's political empowerment and gender parity in secondary school enrolment have a positive effect on export diversification. On the contrary, gender vulnerable employment inequality and gender wage inequality have a negative effect on diversification. These findings suggest that policies targeting SDG 5 – gender parity and women empowerment – can potentially improve trade performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs the WITS-SMART model to analyze the potential impacts of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on specific industries in Malaysia and China. By modifying the Armington elasticity and the parameter ‘a’ in the Swiss formula, five distinct scenarios are established to simulate the effects of various tariff reduction schemes. The analysis reveals positive and significant overall trade effects. In a scenario of complete tariff elimination, Malaysia experiences higher trade and welfare effects compared to China, addressing the longstanding trade deficit between the two countries. Finally, recommendations are made to gradually reduce tariffs in stages and sectors, prioritize tariff reduction on specific goods, implement zero tariffs in China first, focus on products with international competitiveness, and address potential asymmetric industrial output effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between trade openness and inflation for ECOWAS countries for the period 1970–2020. Using alternative openness measures and estimation methods, it was found that there is a significant positive long-run relationship between trade openness and inflation for ECOWAS countries. The implication of this result is that, if ECOWAS countries continue to import consumption products outside the region rather than capital goods that can increase domestic production, it will be very difficult for member countries to meet the convergence criteria, specifically low inflation required for the proposed monetary unification. In the short run, the results show that there is a negative relationship between trade openness and inflation for ECOWAS countries. This result is specific to a determined period and as the economy gets more open, it becomes more exposed to a higher rate of inflation. Therefore, to meet low inflation criteria, member countries should take it as a matter of urgency to fully implement the ECOWAS trade liberalization scheme to improve intra-regional trade. This would reduce excessive dependence on external imports which makes ECOWAS countries vulnerable to international price volatility, currency depreciation and a high rate of inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalisation on the rural labour force in China, with a particular focus on labour mobility and off-farm employment. The analysis utilises micro data from the National Fixed Point Survey and Chinese manufacturing firms. The identification strategy relies on combining information on the initial province labour and product market structure with the exogenous tariff reduction schedule over WTO accession and distinguishes between output markets and intermediate input tariffs. The results are as follows: First, the reduction of output tariffs does not promote rural labour mobility, whereas the reduction of input tariffs has a positive impact on mobility. Additionally, output tariffs reduce off-farm employment income and time, while input tariffs increase them. This conclusion is applicable only to low-skilled labour. Second, the tariff reduction significantly affects total wages and the number of employees in firms, as supported by macro data. This suggests that tariff cuts have implications for firm employment and, consequently, rural employment. Third, tariff cuts have a more pronounced effect on young individuals, those with lower levels of education, and the female workforce. Therefore, the interests of these groups should be fully considered in the process of further import liberalisation and tariff reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the case where multiple tariff schemes (e.g. general and preferential schemes) are available between trading countries. We incorporate these tariffs into gravity equations and estimate them by the Pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood technique. The results show that omitting either tariff type leads to significant estimates biases. If fixed effects to control other tariffs are not included in the model, both preferential and general tariffs are to be introduced in the gravity equation. Indeed, some estimation results for precision metals show that reducing both types of tariffs contributes to significantly increasing trade values. However, reducing general tariffs does not always have a trade-enhancing effect. In leather products, for example, its impact was insignificant. Nevertheless, the reduction of preferential tariffs was again found to increase trade values significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the direction of causality between income inequality and growth, income inequality and debt, and debt and growth for 11 selected countries in SSA countries (Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia). The panel bootstrap causality approach is applied to these countries from 1980 to 2018. Inequality is represented using Gini coefficient, Palma ratio, and Theil index. The findings show that there is at least a one-way causal relationship between public debt and inequality in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda, between inequality and growth in Botswana, Lesotho, Nigeria, and South Africa and between growth and debt in Botswana, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda. Empirical results imply that the relations between the relevant variables in the Sub-Saharan African countries may vary according to the specific characteristics of these countries. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to analyse the impact of these three macroeconomic variables together. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What determines Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows remains a primary concern of economists and policy makers; yet the uncertainty surrounding FDI theories and empirical approaches has created ambiguity regarding the determinants of FDI. This paper applies Leamer's (1983, 1985) traditional Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) as well as the Sala-I-Martin modified form of EBA to identify the robust determinants of FDI using cross-sectional data (averaged for the period of 1985-2016) covering 103 emerging and developing countries. We consider 33 potential economic, political and institutional determinants. To address concerns about multicollinearity, the VIF restriction specifies that only estimates with VIF below five are reported. The results show that all variables of interest are fragile determinants of FDI when using traditional EBA. Yet, when applying the Sala-i-Martin EBA, nine robust variables are revealed. Some policy implications are discussed. Highlights What determines Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows remains a primary concern of economists and policy makers; yet the uncertainty surrounding FDI theories and empirical approaches has created ambiguity regarding the determinants of FDI. It is a common practice in the fields of economics and finance to report the most 'appealing' or convenient regression or regressions after an extensive search and data mining, given that the 'true' model is unknown. This paper applies traditional Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) as well as the Sala-i-Martin modified form of EBA to identify the robust determinants of FDI. We demonstrate that what is important is not the significance or otherwise according to one regression equation but rather the robustness or fragility of the variables in the sense that the sign and significance do not change over a large number of regressions selected according to a predetermined procedure. Policy makers would be able to understand the importance of the major determinants of FDI mentioned in the paper and take steps to formulate policies that encourage and attract more FDI. Such determinants could include market size, making regulations more international trade friendly and investing in the nation's human capital. Further, research and development facilities could be developed to provide a basis for technological advancements which would attract more FDI inflows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces political competition into a vertical model with successive duopolies. The upstream consists of a home state-owned enterprise (SOE) and foreign private intermediate-input producer while the downstream consists of home and foreign private final-good producers. The SOE manager lobbies for a better weight configuration comprised of profits and sales, the downstream domestic firm lobbies for more subsidies to enhance its profits and industrial policy, and the policymaker, as one agency, maximizes a weighted sum of the lobbyists' contributions and social welfare, sets policies for the two firms. The paper shows that it is in the interest of the SOE's manager to promote sales at the expense of profits. The upshot on the effects of lobbying is that the government will set too high a weight on sales for the SOE and will confer excessive subsidy to the downstream firm beyond the respective social optimal levels. Lobbying is therefore socially harmful. This paper further shows that if only one lobbyist contributes, which results in lower social welfare than when only its rival contributes, it must be that the lobbyist contributes more than its rival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human capital and trade liberalization are playing a central role in growth theories. However, the link between human capital, trade liberalization, and economic growth remains a challenging question due to the inconclusive results of the previous studies. Paper contributes to this debate through asymmetric links among human capital, trade liberalization, and economic growth by incorporating labor and capital for Pakistan's economy by applying the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. Results suggest that the positive and negative asymmetric impact of trade liberalization and human capital on growth substantially vary in the short and long run. In the long run, the increased trade liberalization hurts economic growth, while increased human capital has a minimal positive impact on economic growth in the short and long run. The implications of this paper are for economists and policymakers to strengthen the role of human capital and trade liberalization for Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gravity variables such as distance, adjacency, colony, free trade agreements or language are used to capture the effects of trade costs in empirical studies. By using actual data on trade costs, this paper decomposes the overall effects of such variables on trade into those through three gravity channels: duties/tariffs (DC), transportation-costs (TC), and dyadic-preferences (PC). As opposed to the existing literature where gravity variables act like supply shifters (through DC and TC), this paper empirically shows that they act like demand shifters (through PC). Regarding policy, it is implied that welfare-improving globalization cannot be achieved only through reductions in direct costs such as duties/tariffs or transportation costs; it is rather the globalization itself that should be promoted in order to shift the preferences of destination countries toward international products and thus reduce indirect trade costs. The results are further connected to several existing discussions in the literature, such as welfare gains from trade and the distance puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the role of local human capital in facilitating the export diversification improvement effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) in African countries. To this end, we use a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model which is able to deal with the heterogeneity issue associated with the cross-country data. Based on a sample of 30 African countries over the period 1996–2019, the results show that there is a minimum threshold of human capital beyond which the export diversification enhancing effect of FDI is unlocked in African countries. In other words, only countries located above a certain threshold of human capital benefit from the positive effect of FDI on export diversification. These results suggest that policymakers in African countries should focus on improving the conditions for acquiring local human capital (education and health) in order to extract economic gains from FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's structural changes have brought new challenges to its regional employment structures, entailing labour redistribution. Until now, Chinese migration research with a forward-looking perspective and on bilateral longitudinal determinants at the prefecture city level is almost non-existent. This paper investigates the effects of job prospects on individual migration decisions across prefecture boundaries. To this end, we created proxy variables for wage and employment prospects, introduced reference-dependence to a dynamic discrete choice model, and estimated corresponding empirical specifications with a unique quasi-panel of 66,427 individuals from 283 cities during 1997–2017. To address multilateral resistance to migration resulting from the future attractiveness, we exploited various monadic and dyadic fixed effects. Multilevel logit models and two-step system GMM estimation were adopted for the robustness check. Our primary findings are that a 10% increase in the ratio of sector-based employment prospects in cities of destination to cities of origin raises the probability of migration by 1.281–2.185 percentage points, and the effects tend to be stronger when the scale of the ratio is larger. Having a family migration network causes an increase of approximately 6 percentage points in migratory probabilities. Further, labour migrants are more likely to be male, unmarried, younger, or more educated. Our results suggest that the ongoing industrial reform in China influences labour mobility between cities, providing important insights for regional policymakers to prevent brain drain and to attract relevant talent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the impact of manufacturing global value chain (GVC) participation on industrial upgrading in developing countries. After constructing a novel manufacturing GVC dataset for 37 countries from 2001 to 2017, we apply panel fixed-effect estimation to evaluate whether value chain integration could lead to industrial upgrading. Our findings show that increasing participation in manufacturing GVC has led to structural change in the industrial sector. In the baseline model, we find a percentage rise in manufacturing GVC corresponds to 0.35–0.43% increase in the share of high-tech sector. Further analysis reveals that the upgrading channel is primarily derived from forward linkages, while backward linkages contribute in diminishing low-tech manufacturing activities. Our findings are robust under alternative estimation techniques. This linear transformation confirms earlier studies and thus highlights the critical role of GVC in promoting industrial upgrading in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike most extant research that uses production-based CO2 emissions to examine the links between exports/imports and CO2 emissions, in this paper we use consumption-based CO2 emissions to examine the impact of the 2008 global financial crises on the stated relationship for a select sample of countries arranged by income levels. Using the common correlated effects estimator methodology and annual data over the 1990–2019 period, we examine the impact of the 2008 crisis on the stated relationship for a group of high-income, upper middle-income, and lower middle-income countries. Our results suggest that the global financial crisis significantly altered the high-income and lower middle-income countries in terms of the relationship between exports and pollution. The crisis also impacted the lower middle-income countries in terms of the imports/pollution relationship. These findings suggest that a country's income level is important when considering the relationship between exports/imports and pollution following a crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]