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This paper estimates the effects of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) on trade, sales of foreign affiliates of multinational enterprises, and total bilateral commerce (aggregate of both trade ands sales of foreign affiliates) in the manufacturing sector. The empirical investigation is carried out over a panel dataset covering the US bilateral transactions with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for the period 1983-1998. The empirical specification is guided by a gravity-based model that accounts for trade and the operation of foreign affiliates as alternative modes of accessing foreign markets. The results show that the CUSFTA induced an increase in inward and outward trade between the US and Canada, but also led to a significant reduction in sales of their foreign affiliates in the corresponding CUSFTA partner country. This outcome implies that the trade-generating effect of the CUSFTA is overstated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since McCallum's (1995) finding of surprisingly high border effects on trade between the US and Canada, there have been a number of studies on other parts of the world, and improvements made to the gravity model to measure this effect accurately. This paper suggests some other modifications to the model, and applies it to a region of the world that presents a distinctly interesting case. Changes in border effects of formerly socialist countries in Central and East Europe, and countries in the former Soviet Union are analyzed during 1976-2002 at country and sectoral levels, and also with respect to blocs of countries. A discussion on cross-country variations in border effects follows the computations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]