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This paper assesses the genealogy of competitive indices in international trade and theoretically develops a measure of export threat which estimates direct competition in vertical market segments. We identify the assumption of homogeneity in these export threat measures as a weakness that undermines accuracy. Hence, we develop a new measure of export threat, the direct intra-market threat (DIMT), which incorporates relative vertical and market share changes over time to accurately estimate a country’s direct threat to other exporters in a third market. We argue that the market segmentation method applied in complement to the DIMT estimate provides an all-encompassing methodology in the estimation of export threat, which we argue is superior to the Dynamic Index of Competitive Threat (DICT) and Direct Threat methodologies. The paper uses the case of China and India (CHINDIA) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) to assess the empirical estimates of the DIMT relative to DICT and Direct Threat over the period 2000–2021. Our study is motivated by a research gap in the estimation of the competitive threat posed by a large, diversified exporter on Small Island Developing States (SIDS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For developing economies, exporting broadens the horizon for facilitating effective integration into the global economy and improving overall competitiveness. While small developing states are particularly at high risk given their fundamental characteristics, the expected impact of these exogenous shocks on small resource dependent economies are amplified given the high possibility of lower levels of diversification. This paper therefore assesses the determinants of exports and exporting potential of SIDS (small island developing states) with a focus on Caribbean resource-based countries. Using non resource exports, in an aggregate and disaggregate form, as the dependent variable, the traditional gravity model was augmented to include a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index, the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the exporter and the export sophistication (EXPY) index. The main findings indicate that an appreciation of the REER has an inverse impact on exports of non-resource commodities and that trade according to comparative advantage and differences in export sophistication occurs mainly in the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of structural transformation with respect to the CARICOM region’s export sophistication and diversification dynamics. Trends in the data indicate that CARICOM, in relation to other country groups, has the lowest number of active export lines. The region also has a low number of commodities with comparative advantage, and an almost negligible number of highly sophisticated exports. The factors affecting export diversification were also evaluated in relation to resource and factor endowments, the regulatory environment and the degree of technical progress. The overall results, from a global perspective, indicate that countries which are technically advanced tend to have a higher degree of export diversification while resource reliant economies are shown to be less diversified. In terms of CARICOM, structural factors and technical progress significantly explain diversification, however as the ease of doing business improves, these countries tend to become more specialized therefore highlighting the tendency to focus on sectors in which they are relatively strong given their factor endowments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the extent to which having Spanish as a second language influences trade in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T). Our study is motivated by the inflow of Venezuelan migrants into T&T on account of political and economic tensions in Venezuela. This influx of immigrants can positively impact the T&T economy using the Rybczynski theorem. This is necessary given that the country faces an aging population and a decline in trade with traditional trade partners. Gravity modelling including Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects Model, Random Effects Model and the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method are used to examine whether language affects T&T's extra-regional trade with Spanish speaking countries. It is determined that language is a significant factor in promoting trade in T&T, increasing bilateral trade and exports. The impact of Spanish immigrants on the T&T economy reduces the loss of exports as compared to if Spanish immigrants were absent. We suggest an intensification of the adoption of Spanish as a second language in T&T in order to promote trade with other Spanish speaking countries as it would reduce communication costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]