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The authors report a cross-sectional analysis of the effects of shelf position and space on sales for a frequently purchased, branded grocery product. As is the case in most cross-sectional studies of the effects of shelf policy variables, they are apt to be confounded with store, container size and brand differences in sales. This investigation illustrates the use of several procedures for mitigating the effects of these confounding variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author's stochastic evolutionary adoption model (STEAM) is briefly described. Methods for estimating its parameters from panel data covering the first part of the introductory period are outlined. A method by which the future purchase history of each panel household can be simulated and the results projected into a total market forecast is reported. Results obtained by applying the model and simulation procedure to live data for a new product are shown and compared with the product's actual sales during the years after its introduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article a normative theory of market segmentation is developed that takes account of major implementation problems. The theory is presented as a multistage mathematical model of the full range of segmentation possibilities from the perfectly discriminating monopolist to the mass marketer. The theory's major implications for the philosophy and application of the market segmentation strategy are discussed in detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents comments on A. S. C. Ehrenberg's article, "An Appraisal of Markov Brand-Switching Models," that raises questions about stochastic brand-switching models and Markov models in general. The authors discuss Markov vs. Vokram probabilities, whether Vokrams have managerial significance, Ehrenberg's test for stationarity, and the value of steady-state brand shares. The authors agree that Markov processes do not fill all brand-switching situations, yet they would not abandon Markov processes altogether, nor would they dismiss the Vokram approach.

The data generated by continuous consumer panels represents a large "mine" of information for analyzing customer behavior regarding frequently purchased food and household products. Despite the value of this information, little has been done to make it accessible. Aware of this difficulty, the authors describe a system of computer programs for the IBM 7090; this greatly facilitates the process required to convert the raw data into a useful form. The resulting time series and cross-sectional summary measures are applicable to a wide range of marketing problems. The programming system is flexible enough to generate many additional measures with relatively minor modification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Media strategies aimed at penetrating the heavy half are frequently based on matching socioeconomic and demographic profiles of the media under consideration to those believed representative of the target group. This assumes that socioeconomic and demographic variables are correlated with product consumption. The authors evaluate the validity of this assumption by analyzing the relationship between socioeconomic-demographic variables and consumption for each of 57 grocery products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retailer-placed newspaper advertising is often an important component of a manufacturer's promotional mix. This article examines the relation between the size of a manufacturer's advertising allowance and the response of retail advertisers. The brand's market share and the time since the last ad for the brand by the store are treated as intervening variables. The product studied is a food item that is often used to stimulate total store traffic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In analyzing continuous consumer panels for making marketing decisions, one must make some assumptions about how accurately the panel represents the total population of consumers. Yet very little work has been published on the representativeness of consumer panels. This article deals with a limited aspect of the problem: the effect of the length of time consumers have been in the panel on their purchasing characteristics. Tentative hypotheses are formulated on the basis of some empirical data and suggestions for future studies are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most empirical work on Markov processes for brand choice has been based on aggregative data. This article explores the validity of the crucial assumption that underlies such analyses, i.e., that all the families in the sample follow a Markov process with the same or similar transition probability matrices. The results show that there is a great deal of diversity among families' switching processes, and that many of them are of zero rather than first order. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sample estimates of predictive power in N-way discriminant analysis are likely to be subject to a strong upward bias. This bias occurs because the discriminant technique tends to fit the sample data in ways that are systematically better than would be expected by chance, even if the underlying populations are identical (i.e., no predictive power truly exists). Sample tests of predictive power against chance models are often invalid, and no simple methods of adjusting for the bias are available, as in the analogous case of multiple regression. The nature and causes of sample bias are discussed and two validation procedures are presented and illustrated that can be used to obtain realistic estimates of predictive power in discriminant analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in relative price and dealing activity are likely to affect different segments of the market in different ways. A distributed lag model is developed for predicting a firm's market share over a period of weeks from knowledge of the changes in these variables. It is tested on aggregate data for a metropolitan market, and applied to data for three classes of underlying segments. The bases for segmenting the market are by family purchasing characteristic, package size, and channel of distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is little evidence that marketing research is being used to any extent in underdeveloped countries. Obstacles and technical difficulties in applying research techniques in these countries are discussed, and it is shown that marketing research practices often cannot be exported without modification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between behavioral and optimization models should be more clearly understood. The authors define the characteristics of each. using published marker research findings. They discuss the implications of the behavioral-optimization model dichotomy for the marketing research department, and suggest an organizational arrangement for using research data more effectively in management decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]