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County level estimates of mean sheet and rill erosion from the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) are useful for program development and evaluation. Since county sample sizes in the CEAP survey are insufficient to support reliable direct estimators, small area estimation procedures are needed. The quantity of water runoff is a useful covariate but is unavailable for the full population. We use an estimate of mean runoff from the CEAP survey as a covariate in a small area model with sheet and rill erosion as the response. As the runoff and sheet and rill erosion are estimators from the same survey, the measurement error in the covariate is important as is the correlation between the measurement error and the sampling error. We conduct a detailed investigation of small area estimation in the presence of a correlation between the measurement error in the covariate and the sampling error in the response. In simulations, the proposed predictor is superior to small area predictors that assume the response and covariate are uncorrelated or that ignore the measurement error entirely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Income inequality estimators are biased in small samples, leading generally to an underestimation. This aspect deserves particular attention when estimating inequality in small domains and performing small area estimation at the area level. We propose a bias correction framework for a large class of inequality measures comprising the Gini Index, the Generalized Entropy, and the Atkinson index families by accounting for complex survey designs. The proposed methodology does not require any parametric assumption on income distribution, being very flexible. Design-based performance evaluation of our proposal has been carried out using EU-SILC data, their results show a noticeable bias reduction for all the measures. Lastly, an illustrative example of application in small area estimation confirms that ignoring ex-ante bias correction determines model misspecification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In small area estimation, it is sometimes necessary to use model-based methods to produce estimates in areas with little or no data. In official statistics, we often require that aggregates of small area estimates agree with national estimates for internal consistency purposes. Enforcing this agreement is referred to as benchmarking, and while methods currently exist to perform benchmarking, few are ideal for applications with non-normal outcomes and benchmarks with uncertainty. Fully Bayesian benchmarking is a theoretically appealing approach insofar as we can obtain posterior distributions conditional on a benchmarking constraint. However, existing implementations may be computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we critically review benchmarking methods in the context of small area estimation in low- and middle-income countries with binary outcomes and uncertain benchmarks, and propose a novel approach in which posterior samples of small area characteristics from an unbenchmarked model can be combined with a rejection sampler or Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to produce benchmarked posterior distributions in a computationally efficient way. To illustrate the flexibility and efficiency of our approach, we provide comparisons to an existing benchmarking approach in a simulation, and applications to HIV prevalence and under-5 mortality estimation. Code implementing our methodology is available in the R package stbench. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obtaining reliable estimates in small areas is a challenge because of the coverage and periodicity of data collection. Several techniques of small area estimation have been proposed to produce quality measures in small areas, but few of them are focused on updating these estimates. By combining the attributes of the most recent versions of the structure-preserving estimation methods, this article proposes a new alternative to estimate and update cross-classified counts for small domains, when the variable of interest is not available in the census. The proposed methodology is used to obtain and up-date estimates of the incidence of poverty in 81 Costa Rican cantons for six postcensal years (2012–2017). As uncertainty measures, mean squared errors are estimated via parametric bootstrap, and the adequacy of the proposed method is assessed with a design-based simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Income inequality is a persistent topic of public and political debate. In this context, the focus often shifts from the national level to a more detailed geographical level. In particular, inequality between or within local communities can be assessed. In this article, the estimation of inequality within regions, that is, between households, is considered at a regionally disaggregated level. From a methodological point of view, a small area estimation of the Gini coefficient is carried out using an area-level model linking survey data with related administrative data. Specifically, the Fay-Herriot model is applied using a logit-transformation followed by a bias-corrected back-transformation. The uncertainty of the point estimate is assessed using a parametric bootstrap procedure to estimate the mean squared error. The validity of the methodology is shown in a model-based simulation for the point estimator as well as for the uncertainty measure. The proposed methodology is illustrated by estimating model-based Gini coefficients for spatial planning regions in Germany, using survey data from the Socio-Economic Panel and aggregate data from the 2011 Census. The results show that intra-regional inequality is more diverse than a consideration only between East and West suggests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the production of US agricultural official statistics, certain inequality and benchmarking constraints must be satisfied. For example, available administrative data provide an accurate lower bound for the county-level estimates of planted acres, produced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) National Agricultural statistics Services (NASS). In addition, the county-level estimates within a state need to add to the state-level estimates. A sub-area hierarchical Bayesian model with inequality constraints to produce county-level estimates that satisfy these important relationships is discussed, along with associated measures of uncertainty. This model combines the County Agricultural Production Survey (CAPS) data with administrative data. Inequality constraints add complexity to fitting the model and present a computational challenge to a full Bayesian approach. To evaluate the inclusion of these constraints, the models with and without inequality constraints were compared using 2014 corn planted acres estimates for three states. The performance of the model with inequality constraints illustrates the improvement of county-level estimates in accuracy and precision while preserving required relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Like many other countries, the United Kingdom (UK) produces a national consumer price index (CPI) to measure inflation. Presently, CPI measures are not produced for regions within the UK. It is believed that, using only available data sources, a regional CPI would not be precise or reliable enough as an official statistic, primarily because the regional partitioning of the data makes sample sizes too small. We investigate this claim by producing experimental regional CPIs using publicly available price data, and deriving expenditure weights from the Living Costs and Food survey. We detail the methods and challenges of developing a regional CPI and evaluate its reliability. We then assess whether model-based methods such as smoothing and small area estimation significantly improve the measures. We find that a regional CPI can be produced with available data sources, however it appears to be excessively volatile over time, mainly due to the weights. Smoothing and small area estimation improve the reliability of the regional CPI series to some extent but they remain too volatile for regional policy use. This research provides a valuable framework for the development of a more viable regional CPI measure for the UK in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Netherlands, very precise and detailed statistical information on labour force participation is derived from registers. A drawback of this data source is that it is not timely since definitive versions typically become available with a delay of two years. More timely information on labour force participation can be derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Quarterly figures, for example, become available six weeks after the calendar quarter. A well-known drawback of this data source is the uncertainty due to sampling error. In this article, a nowcast method is proposed to produce preliminary but timely nowcasts for the register labour force participation on a quarterly frequency at the level of municipalities and neighbourhoods, using the data from the LFS. As a first step, small area estimates for quarterly municipal figures on labour force participation are obtained using the LFS data and the unit-level modelling approach of Battese, Harter and Fuller (1988). Subsequently, time series of these small area estimates at the municipal level are combined with time series on register labour force participation in a bivariate structural time series model in order to nowcast the register labour force participation at the level of municipalities and neighbourhoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small area estimation is receiving considerable attention due to the high demand for small area statistics. Small area estimators of means and totals have been widely studied in the literature. Moreover, in the last years also small area estimators of quantiles and poverty indicators have been studied. In contrast, small area estimators of inequality indicators, which are often used in socio-economic studies, have received less attention. In this article, we propose a robust method based on the M-quantile regression model for small area estimation of the Theil index and the Gini coefficient, two popular inequality measures. To estimate the mean squared error a non-parametric bootstrap is adopted. A robust approach is used because often inequality is measured using income or consumption data, which are often non-normal and affected by outliers. The proposed methodology is applied to income data to estimate the Theil index and the Gini coefficient for small domains in Tuscany (provinces by age groups), using survey and Census micro-data as auxiliary variables. In addition, a design-based simulation is carried out to study the behaviour of the proposed robust estimators. The performance of the bootstrap mean squared error estimator is also investigated in the simulation study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the proportions of households that had experience of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The Colombian National Statistical Office usually produces estimations of internal migration based on the results of population censuses, but there is a lack of disaggregated information about the main small areas of origin of the population that emigrates from Colombia. The proposed methodology uses frequentist and Bayesian approaches based on a Fay-Herriot model and is illustrated by one example with a dependent variable from the Demographic and Health Survey 2015 and covariables available from the population census 2005. The proposed alternative produces proportion estimates that are consistent with sample sizes and the main internal immigration trends in Colombia. Additionally, the estimated coefficients of variation are lower than 20% for municipalities for both frequentist and Bayesian approaches and large demographically-relevant capital cities and therefore estimates may be considered to be reliable. Finally, we illustrate how the proposed alternative leads to important reductions of the estimated coefficients of variations for the areas with very small sample sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider longitudinal data and the problem of prediction of subpopulation (domain) characteristics that can be written as a linear combination of the variable of interest, including cases of small or zero sample sizes in the domain and time period of interest. We consider the empirical version of the predictor proposed by Royall (1976) showing that it is a generalization of the empirical version of the predictor presented by Henderson (1950). We propose a parametric bootstrap MSE estimator of the predictor. We prove its asymptotic unbiasedness and derive the order of its bias. Considerations are supported by Monte Carlo simulation analyses to compare its accuracy (not only the bias) with other MSE estimators, including jackknife and weighted jackknife MSE estimators that we adapt for the considered predictor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase of social media usage, a huge new source of data has become available. Despite the enthusiasm linked to this revolution, one of the main outstanding criticisms in using these data is selection bias. Indeed, the reference population is unknown. Nevertheless, many studies show evidence that these data constitute a valuable source because they are more timely and possess higher space granularity. We propose to adjust statistics based on Twitter data by anchoring them to reliable official statistics through a weighted, space-time, small area estimation model. As a by-product, the proposed method also stabilizes the social media indicators, which is a welcome property required for official statistics. The method can be adapted anytime official statistics exists at the proper level of granularity and for which social media usage within the population is known. As an example, we adjust a subjective well-being indicator of "working conditions" in Italy, and combine it with relevant official statistics. The weights depend on broadband coverage and the Twitter rate at province level, while the analysis is performed at regional level. The resulting statistics are then compared with survey statistics on the "quality of job" at macro-economic regional level, showing evidence of similar paths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy measures to combat low literacy are often targeted at municipalities or regions with low levels of literacy. However, current surveys on literacy do not contain enough observations at this level to allow for reliable estimates when using only direct estimation techniques. To provide more reliable results at a detailed regional level, alternative methods must be used. The aim of this article is to obtain literacy estimates at the municipality level using model-based small area estimation techniques in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. To do so, we link Dutch Labour Force Survey data to the most recent literacy survey available, that of the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC). We estimate the average literacy score, as well as the percentage of people with a low literacy level. Variance estimators for our small area predictions explicitly account for the imputation uncertainty in the PIAAC estimates. The proposed estimation method improves the precision of the area estimates, making it possible to break down the national figures by municipality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining survey and auxiliary data to produce official statistics is gaining interest at federal agencies and among policy makers due to its efficiency. Recent studies have shown the practicality of small area estimation modeling approaches in the context of integrating data from multiple sources to improve estimation at fine levels of aggregation. In this article, agricultural predictions are constructed using a hierarchical Bayes subarea-level model, fit to data available from different sources. Auxiliary data are initially used to complement the survey data and define the prediction space, and then to define covariates for the model. Finally, not-in-sample predictions are constructed using the model output, and benchmarking constraints are imposed on the final set of in-sample and not-in-sample predictions. Unlike most of the studies discussing not-in-sample prediction, this article illustrates a method that uses the data available from multiple sources to define the prediction space. As a consequence, the resulting framework provides a larger set of nationwide predictions as candidate for official statistics, and extrapolation is not of concern. Challenges in developing the methods to combine different data sources are discussed in the context of planted acreage prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Frame SBS is a statistical register which has been developed at the Italian National Statistical Institute to support the annual estimation of structural business statistics (SBS). Actually, a number of core SBS are estimated by combining microdata directly supplied by different administrative sources. In this context, more accurate estimates for those SBS that are not covered by administrative sources can be obtained through small area estimation (SAE). In this article, we illustrate an application of SAE methods in the framework of the Frame SBS register in order to assess the potential advantages that can be achieved in terms of increased quality and reliability of the target variables. Different types of auxiliary information and approaches are compared in order to identify the optimal estimation strategy in terms of precision of the estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand for reliable business statistics at disaggregated levels, such as industry classes, increased considerably in recent years. Owing to small sample sizes for some of the domains, design-based methods may not provide estimates with adequate precision. Hence, modelbased small area estimation techniques that increase the effective sample size by borrowing strength are needed. Business data are frequently characterised by skewed distributions, with a few large enterprises that account for the majority of the total for the variable of interest, for example turnover. Moreover, the relationship between the variable of interest and the auxiliary variables is often non-linear on the original scale. In many cases, a lognormal mixed model provides a reasonable approximation of this relationship. In this article, we extend the empirical best prediction (EBP) approach to compensate for informative sampling, by incorporating design information among the covariates via an augmented modelling approach. This gives rise to the EBP under the augmented model. We propose to select the augmenting variable based on a joint assessment of a measure of predictive accuracy and a check of the normality assumptions. Finally, we compare our approach with alternatives in a model-based simulation study under different informative sampling mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most important large-scale surveys carried out by national statistical institutes are the repeated survey type, typically intended to produce estimates for several parameters of the whole population, as well as parameters related to some subpopulations. Small area estimation techniques are becoming more and more important for the production of official statistics where direct estimators are not able to produce reliable estimates. In order to exploit data from different survey cycles, unit-level linear mixed models with area and time random effects can be considered. However, the large amount of data to be processed may cause computational problems. To overcome the computational issues, a reformulation of predictors and the correspondent mean cross product estimator is given. The R code based on the new formulation enables the elaboration of about 7.2 millions of data records in a matter of minutes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]