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The purpose of this investigation was to determine whether the presence of disease-associated bacteria in health-associated plaque correlated with susceptibility to periodontitis over time. Sites of periodontal health were identified in 65 adults. Six months later (recall 1), plaque was collected from sites that remained in periodontal health, and specific bacteria were detected using monoclonal antibodies in a microscopic assay. The spirochete morphogroup was identified by phase contrast microscopy. The relationship between detection at recall 1 and development of periodontitis over two successive 6-month intervals (recalls 2 and 3) was evaluated by means of logistic regression using generalized estimating equations (GEE), from which odds ratios (OR) were estimated and tested for significance. Significant relationships were defined as those having ORs with P < 0.05. Ninety-three of 1,032 sites developed signs of early periodontitis over the 12-month interval between recall 1 and recall 3. The spirochete morphogroup (OR = 3.13, P < 0.001) and pathogen-related oral spirochetes (PROS) (OR = 3.68, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with healthy sites that developed periodontitis. The association of Treponema socranskii was not significant (OR = 3.62, P = 0.0918). Odds ratios for Campylobacter rectus, Eikenella corrodens, and Porphyromonas gingivalis were less than 2.0 and not significant. Treponema denticola was not detected in health-associated plaque from stable health sites and was detected in only three sites that progressed to periodontitis. These findings indicate that the presence of PROS and some unidentified spirochetes in health-associated plaque is associated with increased susceptibility to periodontitis.