1. Empirical modeling of two-phase CBM production using analogy to nature.
- Author
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Stopa, Jerzy and Mikołajczak, Edyta
- Subjects
- *
COALBED methane , *MANUFACTURING processes , *MATHEMATICAL models , *POPULATION dynamics , *DIFFERENTIAL equations , *LOTKA-Volterra equations - Abstract
Abstract Acquaintance of production changes is crucial to successful production forecasting of all reservoir types. However, the performance prediction of CBM is very complex due to its specific production behavior. In the case of the coalbed methane formations two-phase flow, which is caused mainly by hydraulic fracturing process occurs. Discussed production system is more complicated than single-phase flow and finding the relationship between produced gas and produced water is required. In this paper, we propose a novel mathematical model for two-phase flow phenomena in CBM reservoirs. The proposed model uses analogies to natural competition processes and is based on the Lotka-Volterra model, which is one of the most popular populations dynamics model. We implement set of two logistic equations with additional term for the purpose of gas and water production forecasting and modeling their declines curves. This set of two ordinary differential equations was originally used to model dynamics of populations, which compete to each other. Both interspecies and intraspecies interactions are considered in the proposed mathematical model. The developed model was validated by some simulated and field examples. The proposed model was firstly used to match the production history data (gas and water flow rates) in order to estimate the model parameters. These parameters were then used to predict the two-phase CBM production. The obtained results show a good match between the production data and created decline curves based on the proposed model. Therefore, the developed model can be used as a helpful tool in predicting the CBM two-phase production. Highlights • The novel mathematical model for two-phase production forecasting of CBM well has been proposed. • The proposed model uses analogies to natural competition processes and is based on the Lotka-Volterra model. • Decline curves for CBM gas and water flow rates were developed for some simulated and field examples. • Presented results show that the developed model has been successfully applied to CBM wells in the various production stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
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