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The Agulhas Current (AC) is a critical component of global ocean circulation. However, due to a lack of multidecadal observations, it is not clear how the AC has changed in response to anthropogenic forcing. A recent observational study suggests a broadening and slight weakening of the AC in the past few decades, while others suggest a strengthening of the AC during the historical period. In this paper, we find substantial internal variability of the AC on decadal to multidecadal time scales in high-resolution models. We show that the AC consistently exhibits two modes of decadal and multidecadal (i.e., low frequency) variability in a series of high-resolution climate models: a uniform mode that is largely associated with changes in the AC strength and a dipole mode that is mainly related to width changes of the AC. We demonstrate that the uniform mode is mainly forced externally by the decadal variations of the wind field and presents a decline under global warming, suggesting a weakening of the AC in response to anthropogenic forcing. The dipole mode, on the other hand, is mainly due to internal dynamics and does not show a trend during the historical period. Using a quasigeostrophic model that captures the dipole mode, we attribute the dipole mode to low-frequency potential vorticity changes in the western boundary, driven by a divergence of relative potential vorticity due to eddy activity. Thus, our results present further context for the interpretation of the AC responses in a changing climate based on a short observational record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement: The ocean's circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO2, which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the structure and dynamics of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) of the Indian Ocean by analyzing in situ observations and reanalysis data and performing ocean model experiments using an ocean general circulation model and a linear continuously stratified ocean model. The results show that the EUC regularly occurs in each boreal winter and spring, particularly during February and April, consistent with existing studies. The EUC generally has a core depth near the 20°C isotherm and can be present across the equatorial basin. The EUC reappears during summer-fall of most years, with core depth located at different longitudes and depths. In the western basin, the EUC results primarily from equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves directly forced by equatorial easterly winds. In the central and eastern basin, however, reflected Rossby waves from the eastern boundary play a crucial role. While the first two baroclinic modes make the largest contribution, intermediate modes 3-8 are also important. The summer-fall EUC tends to occur in the western basin but exhibits obvious interannual variability in the eastern basin. During positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) years, the eastern basin EUC results largely from Rossby waves reflected from the eastern boundary, with directly forced Kelvin and Rossby waves also having significant contributions. However, the eastern basin EUC disappears during negative IOD and normal years because westerly wind anomalies force a westward pressure gradient force and thus westward subsurface current, which cancels the eastward subsurface flow induced by eastern boundary-reflected Rossby waves. Interannual variability of zonal equatorial wind that drives the EUC variability is dominated by the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients associated with IOD and is much less influenced by equatorial wind associated with Indian monsoon rainfall strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subgrid-scale fluctuations with zero means have generally been neglected in ocean modeling, despite their potential role in affecting the oceanic state following Hasselmann's seminal paper on stochastic climate models and series of studies conducted thereafter. When representing effects of these fluctuations in a stochastic parameterization, knowledge of basic properties of these fluctuations is essential. Here, the authors quantify these properties using hourly output of a simulation performed with a global 710° OGCM. This study found that fluctuating buoyancy fluxes are strong in the sense that their strengths are up to one order of magnitude larger than the magnitudes of the respective mean eddy fluxes and that the fluctuations originate not only from mesoscale eddies and tropical instability waves but also from near-inertial waves, especially in the low- and midlatitude oceans. It is this wave contribution that makes the basic properties of fluctuations distinctly different from those expected from mesoscale eddies. The geographical distribution of fluctuation intensity differs from that of mesoscale eddy activity and is strongest in the low- and midlatitude oceans complemented by additional and secondary maxima in the Gulf Stream, the Kuroshio, and the Southern Ocean. The seasonality in most of the low- and midlatitude oceans, characterized by stronger fluctuations in winter than in summer, is just the opposite of that of mesoscale eddies. In the tropical oceans, the correlation length scales reach 500 km in the zonal direction but only about 30-40 km in the meridional direction, reflecting near-inertial waves with nearly zonally oriented wavecrests. Overall, these results provide an important basis for stochastically describing the effects of subgrid-scale fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes regional sea level changes in a climate change simulation using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The climate change scenario builds on observed atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations from 1860 to 2000, followed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate change scenario until 2100; from 2100 to 2199, GHG concentrations are fixed at the 2100 level. As compared with the unperturbed control climate, global sea level rises 0.26 m by 2100, and 0.56 m by 2199 through steric expansion; eustatic changes are not included in this simulation. The model’s sea level evolves substantially differently among ocean basins. Sea level rise is strongest in the Arctic Ocean, from enhanced freshwater input from precipitation and continental runoff, and weakest in the Southern Ocean, because of compensation of steric changes through dynamic sea surface height (SSH) adjustments. In the North Atlantic Ocean (NA), a complex tripole SSH pattern across the subtropical to subpolar gyre front evolves, which is consistent with a northward shift of the NA current. On interannual to decadal time scales, the SSH difference between Bermuda and the Labrador Sea correlates highly with the combined baroclinic gyre transport in the NA but only weakly with the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and, thus, does not allow for estimates of the MOC on these time scales. Bottom pressure increases over shelf areas by up to 0.45 m (water column equivalent) and decreases over the Atlantic section in the Southern Ocean by up to 0.20 m. The separate evaluation of thermosteric and halosteric sea level changes shows that thermosteric anomalies are positive over most of the World Ocean. Because of increased atmospheric moisture transport from low to high latitudes, halosteric anomalies are negative in the subtropical NA and partly compensate thermosteric anomalies, but are positive in the Arctic Ocean and add to thermosteric anomalies. The vertical distribution of thermosteric and halosteric anomalies is highly nonuniform among ocean basins, reaching deeper than 3000 m in the Southern Ocean, down to 2200 m in the North Atlantic, and only to depths of 500 m in the Pacific Ocean by the end of the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to identify the physical mechanism of interdecadal variability in simulations of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation with the Modular Ocean Model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. To that end, a hierarchy of increasingly complex model configurations is used. The variability in the simplest case, that of viscous, purely thermally driven flows in a flat-bottom ocean basin with a box-shaped geometry, is shown to be caused by an internal interdecadal mode. The westward propagation of temperature anomalies and the phase difference between the anomalous zonal and meridional overturning that characterize the interdecadal mode are used as “fingerprints” of the physical mechanism of the variability. In this way, the variability can be followed toward a less viscous regime in which the effects of continental geometry and bottom topography are also included. It is shown that, although quantitative aspects of the variability like period and spatial pattern are changing, the physical mechanism of the interdecadal variability in the more complex simulations can be attributed to the same processes as in the simplest model configuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to modify two-equation turbulence models such that they are capable of simulating dynamics in the wave-enhanced layer near the surface. A balance of diffusion of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and dissipation is assumed as the surface boundary condition for TKE following the suggestion of Craig and Banner. It is shown that this theory, originally developed under the assumption of a macro length scale linearly increasing down from the surface, fails for two-equation models such as the well-known k–ε model. Suggestions are made how to modify such models for overcoming this deficiency. The basic idea is to insert the analytic solution of a model problem suggested by Craig into the dissipation rate equation and solve for the turbulent Schmidt number of the dissipation rate equation, which may be formulated as a function of the production/dissipation ratio. With this modification, the linear behavior of the macro length scale is properly reproduced by the k–ε model. It is shown how near-surface dissipation rate measurements under breaking waves can be simulated by an extended k–ε model considering a shear-dependent closure for the second moments. Finally, the overall performance of this new model approach is tested with a typical upper mixed layer scenario in the northern North Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rapid warming and freshening of the Southern Ocean have been observed over the past several decades and are attributed to anthropogenic climate change. In this study, ocean model perturbation experiments are conducted to separate roles of individual surface forcing in the Southern Ocean temperature and salinity changes. Model-based findings are compared with results from a theoretical framework including three idealized processes defined on the θ–S diagram. Under the future scenario of CO2 doubling, the heat flux forcing dominates the large-scale warming, deepening of isopycnals, and spiciness changes along isopycnals, which can be captured by an idealized pure warming process to represent the subduction of surface heat uptake. The poleward-intensifying westerly winds account for 24% of the enhanced warming between 35° and 50°S and would have comparable contribution as the heat flux forcing after removing the global ocean warming effect. In contrast, the widespread freshening in the Southern Ocean driven by increased surface freshwater input is largely compensated by the wind-driven saltening. The response to freshwater forcing could not be approximated as a similar pure freshening process as the induced cooling and freshening have comparable effects on density. The wind-driven changes are primarily through the local heave of isopycnals, thus resembling an idealized pure heave process, but contain considerable spiciness signals especially in the midlatitude Southern Ocean, resulting from anomalous northward transport and subduction of heat and salt that are largely density-compensating. These distinct signatures of individual surface forcing help us to better understand observed and projected changes in the Southern Ocean. Significance Statement: Considerable changes including a rapid warming and freshening have been observed in the Southern Ocean as it absorbs most of the extra heat from the anthropogenic climate change, receives increased surface freshwater input, and experiences a poleward shift and intensification of the westerly winds. The purpose of this study is to distinguish different contributions from surface heat flux, freshwater flux, and wind forcing to the Southern Ocean temperature and salinity changes, based on ocean model experiments and three idealized processes from a theoretical framework. Our study reveals distinct signatures of individual surface forcing that help us to understand linkages between changes seen at the surface and in the interior Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mean circulation and volume budgets in the upper 1200 m of the Maluku Sea are studied using multiyear current meter measurements of four moorings in the Maluku Channel and of one synchronous mooring in the Lifamatola Passage. The measurements show that the mean current in the depth range of 60–450 m is northward toward the Pacific Ocean with a mean transport of 2.07–2.60 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). In the depth range of 450–1200 m, a mean western boundary current (WBC) flows southward through the western Maluku Sea and connects with the southward flow in the Lifamatola Passage. The mean currents in the central-eastern Maluku Channel are found to flow northward at this depth range, suggesting an anticlockwise western intensified gyre circulation in the middle layer of the Maluku Sea. Budget analyses suggest that the mean transport of the intermediate WBC is 1.83–2.25 Sv, which is balanced by three transports: 1) 0.62–0.93 Sv southward transport into the Seram–Banda Seas through the Lifamatola Passage, 2) 0.97–1.01 Sv returning to the western Pacific Ocean through the central-eastern Maluku Channel, and 3) a residual transport surplus, suggested to upwell to the upper layer joining the northward transport into the Pacific Ocean. The dynamics of the intermediate gyre circulation are explained by the potential vorticity (PV) integral constraint of a semienclosed basin. Significance Statement: The Indonesian Throughflow plays an important role in the global ocean circulation and climate variations. Existing studies of the Indonesian Throughflow have focused on the upper thermocline currents. Here we identify, using mooring observations, an intermediate western boundary current with the core at 800–1000-m depth in the Maluku Sea, transporting intermediate waters from the Pacific into the Seram–Banda Seas through the Lifamatola Passage. Potential vorticity balance suggests an anticlockwise gyre circulation in the intermediate Maluku Sea, which is evidenced by the mooring and model data. Transport estimates suggest northward countercurrent in the upper Maluku Sea toward the Pacific, supplied by the Lifamatola Passage transport and upwelling from the intermediate layer in the Maluku Sea. Our results suggest the importance of the intermediate Indonesian Throughflow in global ocean circulation and overturn. More extensive investigations of the Indo-Pacific intermediate ocean circulation should be conducted to improve our understanding of global ocean overturn and heat and CO2 storages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South China Sea (SCS) abyssal circulation largely contributes to water renewal, energy budget, and sedimentary processes in the deep ocean. The three-dimensional abyssal circulation west of the Luzon Strait (LS) in the northern SCS was investigated using an array comprising 27 current- and pressure-recording inverted echo sounders. Over 400 days of measurements from June 2018 to July 2019 showed a narrow and strong (∼70 km, ∼2.3 cm s−1 at 2500 dbar) northward current near the steep eastern boundary, while a wide and weak (∼180 km, ∼1.5 cm s−1 at 2500 dbar) southwestward current lies along the subdued western boundary. The circulation showed conspicuous cyclonic patterns with a volume transport of ∼1.21 ± 0.93 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) and ∼1.59 ± 0.95 Sv below 2500 dbar along the eastern and western boundaries, respectively. The current near the LS was strong in late autumn and early winter but weak in late winter and spring, following the seasonal variation of LS deep-water overflow. However, the southwestward current in the interior SCS was stronger in summer and early autumn but weaker in late winter and early spring. The different seasonal patterns identified near the LS and the interior SCS are attributed to the propagation of seasonal variation. The weak current along the western boundary in August 2018 and February 2019 was dominated by LS deep-water overflow with a time lag of ∼7.5 months. Although eddies in the upper ocean may also contribute to such variation through pressure work, the effect is minor. Significance Statement: Cyclonic circulation in the deep South China Sea (SCS) largely contributes to water renewal, energy budget, and sedimentary processes and influences the transport of dissolved elements, minerals, and pollutants. As an important part of the SCS throughflow, an in-depth analysis of the SCS abyssal circulation may also contribute to understanding Indonesian Throughflow and global climate change. The three-dimensional abyssal circulation west of the Luzon Strait was investigated using large-scale data from June 2018 to July 2019, which provided unprecedented coverage of abyssal circulation in the northeast SCS. The study provides important observational evidence for the existence of SCS abyssal cyclonic circulation. Detailed spatiotemporal structure of abyssal circulation and its variations are presented, and related dynamic processes are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal variations of nutrient-rich upwelled water across the major eastern boundary upwelling systems are primarily controlled by the surface wind with different, and sometimes contrasting, impacts on coastal upwelling systems driven by alongshore wind and offshore upwelling systems driven by the local wind stress curl. Here, concurrently measured wind fields and satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentration, along with a state-of-the-art ocean model simulation, spanning 2008–18 are used to investigate the connection between coastal and offshore physical drivers of the Benguela upwelling system (BUS). Our results indicate that the spatial structure of long-term mean upwelling derived from Ekman theory and the numerical model is fairly consistent across the entire BUS and is closely followed by the chlorophyll-a pattern. The variability of the upwelling from the Ekman theory is proportionally diminished with offshore distance, whereas different and sometimes opposite structures are revealed in the model-derived upwelling. Our result suggests the presence of submesoscale activity (i.e., filaments and eddies) across the entire BUS with a large modulating effect on the wind-stress-curl-driven upwelling off Lüderitz and Walvis Bay. In Kunene and Cape Frio upwelling cells, located in the northern sector of the BUS, the coastal upwelling and open-ocean upwelling frequently alternate each other, whereas they are modulated by the annual cycle and are mostly in phase off Walvis Bay. Such a phase relationship appears to be strongly seasonally dependent off Lüderitz and across the southern BUS. Thus, our findings suggest that this relationship is far more complex than is currently thought and seems to be sensitive to climate changes, with short- and far-reaching consequences for this vulnerable marine ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic glacial meltwater is thought to play an important role in determining large-scale Southern Ocean climate trends, yet recent modeling efforts have proceeded without a good understanding of how its vertical distribution in the water column is set. To rectify this, here we conduct new large-eddy simulations of the ascent of a buoyant meltwater plume after its escape from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf. We find that the meltwater's settling depth is primarily a function of the buoyancy forcing per unit width of the source and the ambient stratification, consistent with the classical theory of turbulent buoyant plumes and in contrast to previous work that suggested an important role for centrifugal instability. Our results further highlight the significant role played by localized variability in stratification; this helps explain observed interannual variability in the vertical meltwater distribution near Pine Island Glacier. Because of the vast heterogeneity in mass loss rates and ambient conditions at different Antarctic ice shelves, a dynamic parameterization of meltwater settling depth may be crucial for accurately simulating high-latitude climate in a warming world; we discuss how this may be developed following this work, and where the remaining challenges lie. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) plays an essential role in the global heat, freshwater, carbon, and nutrient budgets. In this study, decadal changes in the SAMW properties in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) and associated thermodynamic and dynamic processes are investigated during the Argo era. Both temperature and salinity of the SAMW in the SIO show increasing trends during 2004–18. A two-layer structure of the SAMW trend, with more warm and salty light SAMW but less cool and fresh dense SAMW, is identified. The heaving and spiciness processes are important but have opposite contributions to the temperature and salinity trends of the SAMW. A significant deepening of isopycnals (heaving), peaking at σθ = 26.7–26.8 kg m−3 in the middle layer of the SAMW, expands the warm and salty light SAMW and compresses the cool and fresh dense SAMW corresponding to the change in subduction rate during 2004–18. The change in the SAMW subduction rate is dominated by the change in the mixed layer depth, controlled by the changes in wind stress curl and surface buoyancy fluxes. An increase in the mixed layer temperature due to weakening northward Ekman transport of cool water leads to a lighter surface density in the SAMW formation region. Consequently, density outcropping lines in the SAMW formation region shift southward and favor the intrusion and entrainment of the cooler and fresher Antarctic surface water from the south, contributing to the cooling/freshening trend of isopycnals (spiciness). Subsequently, the cooler and fresher SAMW spiciness anomalies spread in the SIO via the subtropical gyre. Significance Statement: Subantarctic Mode Water is a distinct water mass with vertically uniform properties in the Southern Hemisphere's subtropical gyres. Climate change is imprinted in the SAMW through the ventilation at the base of the winter mixed layer. The ocean modulation associated with wind-forced large-scale waves and circulation also plays an essential role in heat, salinity, and water mass redistribution. A net increase in volume-weighted potential temperature and salinity of the SAMW is found during the Argo era since 2004, resulting from a combination of climate change and ocean modulation through opposite heaving and spiciness processes. This study improves our understanding of the dynamics and thermodynamics involved in the SAMW formation during rapid climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is generally accepted that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual climate variability. Yet, its genesis and maintenance mechanisms are still under intense debate, with no scientific consensus. Some authors argued that the westerly winds originating over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly enhanced and extend eastward in the western and central equatorial Pacific during El Niño events, thus advecting the warm pool eastward along the equator and causing SST anomalies. However, this assertion is unlikely to be quantitatively supported by observational data. Here we present detailed observational data and modeling evidence to demonstrate that the westerly winds had little change in intensity in the western equatorial Pacific, with a wider zonal extent only during most El Niño events, and with a slight increase even in the most pronounced 1997 El Niño. Instead, an eastward equatorial current near the equator has been observed and is considered to play a significant role in shifting the eastern edge of the warm pool eastward, elevating SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and giving rise to El Niño, with the interactions between the eastward warm pool and the upwelling in the eastern cold tongue ascertaining the amplitudes of SST anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key consequence in climate change is the warming of deep waters, away from the faster warming rates of near-surface subtropical and tropical waters. Since surface and near-surface oceanic temperatures have been measured far more frequently in time and space than deep waters (>2000 m), deep measurements become quite valuable. Semi-enclosed basins, such as the Gulf of Mexico, are of particular interest as the waters below sills that connect with the neighboring oceans have residence times much longer than upper layers. Within the western Gulf of Mexico, near-bottom measurements at ~3500-m depths at four sites show a stable linear warming trend of ~16 ± 2 m°C decade−1 for the period 2007–18, and CTD data from eight oceanographic cruises occurring from 2003 to 2019 show a trend of ~18 ± ~2 m°C decade−1 from the bottom to ~2000 m below the surface. The bottom geothermal heat flux is a contributing factor to be considered in the warming and renewal of such waters, but it has not changed over millennia and is therefore unlikely to be the cause of the observed trend. The densest waters that spill into the Gulf of Mexico, over the Yucatan Channel sill, must mix substantially during their descent and in the near-bottom interior, losing their extreme values. A simple box model connects the observed warming, well within the Gulf interior, with that expected in the densest waters that spill from the North Atlantic into the Cayman Basin through Windward Passage and suggests that the source waters at the entrance to the Caribbean have been warming for at least 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional connectivity is important to the global climate salinity response, particularly because salinity anomalies do not have a damping feedback with atmospheric freshwater fluxes and may therefore be advected over long distances by ocean circulation, resulting in nonlocal influences. Climate model intercomparison experiments such as CMIP5 exhibit large uncertainty in some aspects of the salinity response, hypothesized here to be a result of ocean dynamics. We use two types of Lagrangian particle tracking experiments to investigate pathways of exchange for salinity anomalies. The first uses forward trajectories to estimate average transport time scales between water cycle regimes. The second uses reverse trajectories and a freshwater accumulation method to quantitatively identify remote influences in the salinity response. Additionally, we compare velocity fields with both resolved and parameterized eddies to understand the impact of eddy stirring on intergyre exchange. These experiments show that surface anomalies are readily exchanged within the ocean gyres by the mean circulation, but intergyre exchange is slower and largely eddy driven. These dynamics are used to analyze the North Atlantic salinity response to climate warming and water cycle intensification, where the system is broadly forced with fresh surface anomalies in the subpolar gyre and salty surface anomalies in the subtropical gyres. Under these competing forcings, strong intergyre eddy fluxes carry anomalously salty subtropical water into the subpolar gyre which balances out much of the local freshwater input. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An intrahalocline eddy was observed on the Chukchi slope in September of 2015 using both towed CTD and microstructure temperature and shear sections. The core of the eddy was 6°C, significantly warmer than the surrounding −1°C water and far exceeding typical temperatures of warm-core Arctic eddies. Microstructure sections indicated that outside of the eddy the rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy ε was quite low . However, at the edges of the eddy core, ε was elevated to . Three different processes were associated with elevated ε. Double-diffusive steps were found at the eddy's top edge and were associated with an upward heat flux of 5 W m−2. At the bottom edge of the eddy, shear-driven mixing played a modest role, generating a heat flux of approximately 0.5 W m−2 downward. Along the sides of the eddy, density-compensated thermohaline intrusions transported heat laterally out of the eddy, with a horizontal heat flux of 2000 W m−2. Integrating these fluxes over an idealized approximation of the eddy's shape, we estimate that the net heat transport due to thermohaline intrusions along the eddy flanks was 2 GW, while the double-diffusive flux above the eddy was 0.4 GW. Shear-driven mixing at the bottom of the eddy accounted for only 0.04 GW. If these processes continued indefinitely at the same rate, the estimated life-span would be 1–2 years. Such eddies may be an important mechanism for the transport of Pacific-origin heat, freshwater, and nutrients into the Canada Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The salt transport by the wind-driven gyres and the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is studied in an idealized-geometry primitive equation ocean model. Two narrow continents, running along meridians, divide the model domain into two basins of different widths connected by a re-entrant channel south of 52.5°S. One of the continents, representing the Americas, is longer than the other, representing Europe/Africa. Two different configurations of the model are used: the "standard" one, in which the short continent is west of the wide basin, and the "exchanged" one, in which the short continent is west of the narrow basin. In both cases, deep water is formed in the basin to the west of the short continent. Most residual transport of the MOC's upper branch enters this basin by flowing along open streamlines that pass westward south of the short continent before proceeding northward. The meridional salt transport in the upper ocean of the sinking basin is decomposed into two portions: transport along open streamlines and transport by closed streamlines (gyres). In the Northern Hemisphere of the basin in which deep water is formed, the total northward salt transport per unit width along open streamlines is larger in the standard configuration than in the exchanged configuration. This larger salt transport is caused by two factors: a larger northward advection of salt by the interbasin transport and a larger cross-streamline salt transport out of the subpolar gyre. It is concluded that increasing interbasin flow south of Africa would likely bring more salt into the Atlantic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A subpolar marginal sea, like the Nordic seas, is a transition zone between the temperature-stratified subtropics (the alpha ocean) and the salinity-stratified polar regions (the beta ocean). An inflow of Atlantic Water circulates these seas as a boundary current that is cooled and freshened downstream, eventually to outflow as Deep and Polar Water. Stratification in the boundary region is dominated by a thermocline over the continental slope and a halocline over the continental shelves, separating Atlantic Water from Deep and Polar Water, respectively. A conceptual model is introduced for the circulation and water mass transformation in a subpolar marginal sea to explore the potential interaction between the alpha and beta oceans. Freshwater input into the shelf regions has a slight strengthening effect on the Atlantic inflow, but more prominently impacts the water mass composition of the outflow. This impact of freshwater, characterized by enhancing Polar Water outflow and suppressing Deep Water outflow, is strongly determined by the source location of freshwater. Concretely, perturbations in upstream freshwater sources, like the Baltic freshwater outflow into the Nordic seas, have an order of magnitude larger potential to impact water mass transports than perturbations in downstream sources like the Arctic freshwater outflow. These boundary current dynamics are directly related to the qualitative stratification in transition zones and illustrate the interaction between the alpha and beta oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volume, heat, and salt transports through the Soya Strait are estimated based on measurements from high-frequency ocean radars during 2003-15 and all available hydrographic data. The baroclinic velocity structure derived from the climatological geopotential anomaly is combined with the sea surface gradient obtained from radar-derived surface velocities to estimate the absolute velocity structure. The annual-mean volume, heat, and salt transports are 0.91 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), 25.5 TW, and 31.15 × 106 kg s−1, respectively. The volume transport exhibits strong seasonal variations, with a maximum of 1.41 Sv in August and a minimum of 0.23 Sv in January. The seasonal amplitude and phase roughly correspond to those of the Tsushima-Korea Strait. Time series of the monthly transport is presented for the 12 yr, assuming that the baroclinic components are the monthly climatological values. In cold seasons (November to April), the monthly volume transport is strongly correlated with the sea level difference between the Japan and Okhotsk Seas, and an empirical formula to estimate the transport from the sea level difference is introduced. It is likely that the sea level setup by the wind stress along the east coast of Sakhalin determines the sea level difference, which explains the seasonal and interannual wintertime variations of transport through the strait. The annual flux of water through the Soya Strait with a density greater than 26.8 σ θ, a potential source of Okhotsk Sea Intermediate Waters, is estimated to be 0.18 Sv. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study first detects the decadal variability in the depths of the East/Japan Sea (EJS) Intermediate Water (ESIW) using in situ observations and relates it to strong El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSOs). Using multitaper cross-spectrum and cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis, this study found significant coherences at the 99% confidence level and opposite phases between Niño-3 and the ESIW isopycnal depths in the Ulleung Basin (UB) at a period of 14.1 yr during 1968-2002. This suggests a teleconnection between strong ENSOs and the ESIW, the cause of which is explored. When a strong El Niño (EN) develops, the Pacific-North American pattern is intensified by the EN-related Rossby wave interfering constructively with the climatological stationary wave. The amplified wave propagates upward into the stratosphere and breaks, weakening the polar vortex. The EN-related geopotential height increases over the pole with poleward converging air and decreases over the Yakutsk Basin (YB), indicating a negative northern annular mode with the south-to-north gradient balancing the easterly anomaly that responds to vortex weakening. The converged air at the pole warms adiabatically and raises the height as it sinks. This height distribution, including the east-to-west gradient balancing the southward flow, induces the polar vortex split into two with the colder one in the YB where the EJS is closer than from the pole. The EN-related northwesterly wind directing toward the EJS is also strong. Thus, the coldest air with negative wind stress curls reaches the EJS quickly and forms more ESIW, which converges into the UB, causing the observed decadal isopycnal fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A weakly damped mode of variability, corresponding to the oceanic signature of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) was found through the linear stability analysis of a realistic ocean general circulation model. A simple two-level model was proposed to rationalize both its period and damping rate. This model is extended here to three levels to investigate how the mode can draw energy from the mean flow, as found in various ocean and coupled models. A linear stability analysis in this three-level model shows that the positive growth rate of the oscillatory mode depends on the zonally averaged isopycnal slope. This mode corresponds to a westward propagation of density anomalies in the pycnocline, typical of large-scale baroclinic Rossby waves. The most unstable mode corresponds to the largest scale one (at least for low isopycnal slope). The mode can be described in four phases composing a full oscillation cycle: 1) basin-scale warming of the North Atlantic (AMO positive phase), 2) decrease in upper-ocean poleward transport [hence a reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)], 3) basin-scale cooling (negative AMO), and 4) AMOC intensification. A criterion is developed to test, in oceanic datasets or numerical models, whether this multidecadal oscillation is an unstable oceanic internal mode of variability or if it is stable and externally forced. Consistent with the classical theory of baroclinic instability, this criterion depends on the vertical structure of the mode. If the upper pycnocline signature is in advance of the deeper pycnocline signature with respect to the westward propagation, the mode is unstable and could be described as an oceanic internal mode of variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal variation of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) bifurcation off the Australian coast in the South Pacific (SP) is investigated with observations and a nonlinear, reduced-gravity, primitive equation model of the upper ocean. The mean SEC bifurcation latitude (SBL) integrated over the upper thermocline is around 17.5°S, almost 2° south of the position predicted by Sverdrup theory. For its seasonal variation, the SBL reaches its southernmost position in June/July and its northernmost position in November/December. The south-north migration of 2.7° is twice as large as its counterpart in the North Pacific. It is found that the large seasonal amplitude of the SBL results from the combined effect of Low-Lat-SP and Non-Low-Lat-SP processes. The Low-Lat-SP process (referred to as the Rossby wave dynamics forced by the wind stress curl over the low-latitude SP) accounts for almost ⅔ of the SBL seasonal variability, and the Non-Low-Lat-SP processes account for ⅓. Both of these processes are responsible for its south-north migration but in different ways. The Low-Lat-SP wind forcing determines the offshore upper-layer thickness (ULT) via Rossby wave propagation, while the Non-Low-Lat-SP wind forcing determines the alongshore ULT via coastal Kelvin wave propagation. A simple bifurcation model is proposed under the framework of linear Rossby wave dynamics. It is found that the seasonal bifurcation latitude is predominantly determined by the spatial pattern of the wind and baroclinic Rossby wave propagation. This model explains the roles of local/remote wind forcing and baroclinic adjustment in the south-north migration and peak seasons of the bifurcation latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal response of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) to wind stress curl (WSC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) and the Kuroshio intrusion through the Luzon Strait is analyzed using observations and models. The dominant response to WSC is through simple Ekman pumping, while effects of β appear as the weaker second empirical orthogonal function mode. The Luzon Strait intrusion is shown to be largely deterministic using a model forced by realistic wind in the North Pacific Ocean, and it contributes significantly to the SSH variability in the NSCS. The WSC accounts for 62%, while intrusion 38% of the total forcing, but the latter alters the forced Rossby wave response. Without the intrusion, westward propagation is too fast, resulting in incorrect balance and erroneous annual SSH variability in the NSCS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual variability of the upper-ocean circulation forced by seasonally varying monsoonal wind is investigated in a two-layer quasigeostrophic (QG) model, with the aim to understand the low-frequency variability of the South China Sea (SCS) circulation. It is demonstrated that the seasonally varying monsoonal wind can force the upper-ocean circulation with significant internal variability, which is mainly associated with the intrinsic nonlinear dynamics of the summer double-gyre system. This arises from the fact that the intrinsic variability, characterized by the Rossby wave adjustment in the winter single-gyre system, is much weaker than that in the summer double-gyre system driven by the intergyre eddy potential vorticity flux through barotropic instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moored observations are used to investigate the seasonal change in vertical structure of the cross-shelf circulation at a midshelf location in the northern California Current System. A streamwise-normal coordinate system is employed to eliminate meander- and eddy-induced biases in the cross-shelf flow that are unaccounted for with an alternative, commonly applied approach. The resulting flow structure develops an organized pattern midway through the upwelling season. In particular, under upwelling-favorable conditions an onshore return layer occurs just beneath the offshore surface flow, and a third offshore-directed layer exists at depth that does not appear to satisfy Ekman dynamics (to within 9 m of the bottom). Both subsurface layers strengthen in time over the upwelling season. Mechanisms to explain the mean structure are evaluated, and it is suggested that the timing of the development and strengthening of both the interior onshore return flow and the offshore near-bottom layer are consistent with the seasonally changing direction and magnitude of the large-scale alongshelf sea level gradient. The change to a poleward sea level gradient initiates a seasonal relaxation of upwelled isopycnals that likely leads to the near-bottom flow. Late-season enhancement of the interior onshore return flow is related to the alongshelf surface wind stress but appears to form as a consequence of offshore transport in the near-bottom layer and the need to satisfy coastal mass balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) fronts, defined as water mass boundaries, have been known to respond to large-scale atmospheric variabilities, especially the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Distinct patterns of localized variability in meridional front displacements during 1992-2011 are derived from the analysis of satellite sea surface height data. Major basin-scale differences are found between the southeast Pacific (150°-90°W) and the southeast Indian (75°-150°E) sectors of the ACC. Frontal positions in the southeast Pacific show large year-to-year meridional fluctuations, attributed mostly to ENSO and in part SAM, and no apparent seasonal cycles or long-term trends. In contrast, summer (winter) frontal locations in the southeast Indian extend farther to the south (north) of their long-term mean distribution. A southward drift of ACC fronts is indicated over the Indian sector during the past two decades. This long-term shift is not directly related to the atmospheric variabilities, but this is most likely in response to changes in large-scale ocean circulation, in particular to the poleward expansion of the Indian subtropical gyre. The existence of these localized, contrasting variability patterns suggests that a circumpolar-averaging analysis could possibly smooth out a local climate signal, with an emphasis on a basin-scale investigation for climate studies in the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional approaches for assessing wave climate variability have been broadly focused on aggregated or statistical parameters such as significant wave height, wave energy flux, or mean wave direction. These studies, although revealing the major general modes of wave climate variability and trends, do not take into consideration the complexity of the wind-wave fields. Because ocean waves are the response to both local and remote winds, analyzing the directional full spectra can shed light on atmospheric circulation not only over the immediate ocean region, but also over a broad basin scale. In this work, the authors use a pattern classification approach to explore wave climate variability in the frequency-direction domain. This approach identifies atmospheric circulation patterns of the sea level pressure from the 31-yr long Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and wave spectral patterns of two selected buoys in the North Atlantic, finding one-to-one relations between each synoptic pattern (circulation type) and each spectral wave energy distribution (spectral type). Even in the absence of long-wave records, this method allows for the reconstruction of long-term wave spectra to cover variability at several temporal scales: daily, monthly, seasonal, interannual, decadal, long-term trends, and future climate change projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dynamically consistent state estimate is used for the period 1992-2011 to describe the changes in oceanic temperatures and heat content, with an emphasis on determining the noise background in the abyssal (below 2000 m) depths. Interpretation requires close attention to the long memory of the deep ocean, implying that meteorological forcing of decades to thousands of years ago should still be producing trendlike changes in abyssal heat content. Much of the deep-ocean volume remained unobserved. At the present time, warming is seen in the deep western Atlantic and Southern Oceans, roughly consistent with those regions of the ocean expected to display the earliest responses to surface disturbances. Parts of the deeper ocean, below 3600 m, show cooling. Most of the variation in the abyssal Pacific Ocean is comparatively featureless, consistent with the slow, diffusive approach to a steady state expected there. In the global average, changes in heat content below 2000 m are roughly 10% of those inferred for the upper ocean over the 20-yr period. A useful global observing strategy for detecting future change has to be designed to account for the different time and spatial scales manifested in the observed changes. If the precision estimates of heat content change are independent of systematic errors, determining oceanic heat uptake values equivalent to 0.1 W m−2 is possibly attainable over future bidecadal periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual, equatorial Pacific, 20°C isotherm depth variability since 1980 is dominated by two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes: the 'tilt' mode, having opposite signs in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific and in phase with zonal wind forcing and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, and a second EOF mode of one sign across the Pacific. Because the tilt mode is of opposite sign in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific while the second EOF mode is of one sign, the second mode has been associated with the warm water volume (WWV), defined as the volume of water above the 20°C isotherm from 5°S to 5°N, 120°E to 80°W. Past work suggested that the WWV led the tilt mode by about 2-3 seasons, making it an ENSO predictor. But after 1998 the lead has decreased and WWV-based predictions of ENSO have failed. The authors constructed a sea level-based WWV proxy back to 1955, and before 1973 it also exhibited a smaller lead. Analysis of data since 1980 showed that the decreased WWV lead is related to a marked increase in the tilt mode contribution to the WWV and a marked decrease in second-mode EOF amplitude and its contribution. Both pre-1973 and post-1998 periods of reduced lead were characterized by 'mean' La Niña-like conditions, including a westward displacement of the anomalous wind forcing. According to recent theory, and consistent with observations, such westward displacement increases the tilt mode contribution to the WWV and decreases the second-mode amplitude and its WWV contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the global sea level rising, it is imperative to quantify how the dynamics of tidal estuaries and embayments will respond to increased depth and newly inundated perimeter regions. With increased depth comes a decrease in frictional effects in the basin interior and altered tidal amplification. Inundation due to higher sea level also causes an increase in planform area, tidal prism, and frictional effects in the newly inundated areas. To investigate the coupling between ocean forcing, tidal dynamics, and inundation, the authors employ a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of San Francisco Bay, California, comprising two basins with distinct tidal characteristics. Multiple shoreline scenarios are simulated, ranging from a leveed scenario, in which tidal flows are limited to present-day shorelines, to a simulation in which all topography is allowed to flood. Simulating increased mean sea level, while preserving original shorelines, produces additional tidal amplification. However, flooding of adjacent low-lying areas introduces frictional, intertidal regions that serve as energy sinks for the incident tidal wave. Net tidal amplification in most areas is predicted to be lower in the sea level rise scenarios. Tidal dynamics show a shift to a more progressive wave, dissipative environment with perimeter sloughs becoming major energy sinks. The standing wave southern reach of the bay couples more strongly back to the central portion of the bay, in contrast to the progressive wave northern reach of the bay. Generation of the M4 overtide is also found to vary between scenarios and is a nonnegligible contributor to net changes in high water elevation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of meridional transport time series from the Rapid Climate Change-Meridional Overturning Circulation (RAPID MOC) array at 26°N and from Argo float and altimetry data at 41°N reveal that, at semiannual and longer time scales, the contribution from the western boundary dominates the variability of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), defined as the transport in the upper 1000 m of the ocean. Because the variability of the western boundary contribution is associated with a geostrophic overturning, it is reflected in independent estimates of transports from gradient of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) relative to and below 1000 m on the continental slope of the western boundary at three nominal latitudes (26°, 39°, and 42.5°N). Time series of western meridional transports relative to and below 1000 m derived from the OBP gradient, or equivalently derived from the transport shear profile, exhibit approximately the same phase relationship between 26° and 39°-42.5°N as the western contribution to the geostrophic MOC time series do: the western geostrophic MOC at 41°N precedes the MOC at 26°N by approximately a quarter of an annual cycle, resulting in a zero correlation at this time scale. This study therefore demonstrates how OBP gradients on basin boundaries can be used to monitor the MOC and its meridional coherence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection-the process by which surface waters are mixed down to 1000 m or deeper-forms the primary downwelling of the meridional overturning circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. High-resolution hydrographic measurements from Seagliders indicate that during deep convection-though water is well mixed vertically-there is substantial horizontal variation in density over short distances (tens of kilometers). This horizontal density variability present in winter (January-February) contains sufficient buoyancy to restratify the convecting region to observed levels 2.5 months later, as estimated from Argo floating platforms. These results highlight the importance of small-scale heterogeneities in the ocean that are typically poorly represented in climate models, potentially contributing to the difficulty climate models have in representing deep convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The California Undercurrent (CUC), a poleward-flowing feature over the continental slope, is a key transport pathway along the west coast of North America and an important component of regional upwelling dynamics. This study examines the poleward undercurrent and alongshore pressure gradients in the northern California Current System (CCS), where local wind stress forcing is relatively weak. The dynamics of the undercurrent are compared in the primitive equation Navy Coastal Ocean Model and a linear coastal trapped wave model. Both models are validated using hydrographic data and current-meter observations in the core of the undercurrent in the northern CCS. In the linear model, variability in the predominantly equatorward wind stress along the U.S. West Coast produces episodic reversals to poleward flow over the northern CCS slope during summer. However, reproducing the persistence of the undercurrent during late summer requires additional incoming energy from sea level variability applied south of the region of the strongest wind forcing. The relative importance of the barotropic and baroclinic components of the modeled alongshore pressure gradient changes with latitude. In contrast to the southern and central portions of the CCS, the baroclinic component of the alongshore pressure gradient provides the primary poleward force at CUC depths over the northern CCS slope. At time scales from weeks to months, the alongshore pressure gradient force is primarily balanced by the Coriolis force associated with onshore flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Repeated occupations of two hydrographic sections in the southwest Pacific basin from the 1990s to 2000s track property changes of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). The largest property changes-warming, freshening, increase in total carbon, and decrease in oxygen-are found near the basin's deep western boundary between 50° and 20°S. The magnitude of the property changes decreases with increasing distance from the western boundary. At the deep western boundary, analysis of the relative importance of AABW ( γ n > 28.1 kg m−3) freshening, heating, or isopycnal heave suggests that the deep ocean stratification change is the result of both warming and freshening processes. The consistent deep ocean changes near the western boundary of the southwest Pacific basin dispel the notion that the deep ocean is quiescent. High-latitude climate variability is being directly transmitted into the deep southwest Pacific basin and the global deep ocean through dynamic deep western boundary currents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiyear in situ Eulerian acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements were obtained at 5-, 10-, and 19-m depths off the Big Bend coast, and in 19 m off the Florida Peninsula to the south. Analysis on subinertial time scales, dominated by weatherband frequencies, led to the following conclusions. At the 19-m Big Bend site (K-Tower), consistent with coastally trapped wave (CTW) theory, the along-isobath flow is not proportional to the local along-isobath wind stress, but rather to the alongshore wind stress to the south along the west Florida shelf (WFS). At the southern 19-m site, consistent with previous work, the along-isobath flow is driven by , but is weakened by an alongshore pressure gradient brake. Via CTW dynamics this brake is due to the abrupt 'end' of the WFS at the Florida Keys. By contrast, along-isobath flow at the shallow 5-m site is driven by the local wind in a constant stress turbulent frictional layer. Because of the freshwater flux near the coast, density usually increases seaward. This leads to a strong asymmetry in the cross-isobath frictional bottom boundary layer (BBL) flow when the subinertial along-isobath flow direction changes. In one case the BBL flow is shoreward and gravitationally stable while, in the other, the BBL flow is gravitationally unstable as less dense water is forced under more dense water. Seasonal changes in the seaward horizontal density gradient also shear the seasonal along-isobath flow via thermal wind dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New insights into the structure and variability of the Tyrrhenian Sea's surface circulation are obtained through the analysis of a very long series of altimetric observations (1993-2010). In late winter and part of spring, a consistent mean flow is individuated in the eastern Tyrrhenian Sea, formed by a stream of Atlantic water that meanders around four anticyclonic structures located along the Italian coast, which have smaller cyclonic companions offshore. The signatures of these vortices are also found in images of chlorophyll and sea surface temperature, as well as in modeling results, both from a high-resolution operational model of the Tyrrhenian Sea's circulation and from a dedicated numerical simulation. Analysis of the energy exchange between eddies and mean flow, together with numerical evidence, suggests that this winter-spring circulation pattern may result from basin-scale instability of the Atlantic stream. In summer, the dynamic is dominated by a well-known dipole located to the east of the Bonifacio Strait. However, in the eastern part of the basin, an anticyclonic cell is also found, probably driven by the negative wind stress curl present in summer in this region. The cell encompasses two anticyclonic vortices located in the areas of the Vavilov and Marsili Seamounts. A multichannel singular spectral analysis of the altimetric time series reveals that, besides the expected, dominant seasonal mode, a significant low-frequency mode of variability is also present. This mode has a period of about six years and is mostly localized in the western part of the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A well-studied example of natural climate variability is the impact of large freshwater input to the polar oceans, simulating glacial melt release or an amplification of the hydrological cycle. Such forcing can reduce, or entirely eliminate, the formation of deep water in the polar latitudes and thereby weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). This study uses a series of idealized, eddy-permitting numerical simulations to analyze the energetic constraints on the Atlantic Ocean's response to anomalous freshwater forcing. In this model, the changes in MOC are not correlated with the global input of mechanical energy: both kinetic energy and available potential energy (APE) increase with northern freshwater forcing, while the MOC decreases. However, a regional analysis of APE density supports the notion that local maxima in APE density control the response of the MOC to freshwater forcing perturbations. A coupling between APE input and changes in local density anomalies accounts for the difference in time scales between the recovery and collapse of the MOC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice variability in the Labrador Sea is of climatic interest because of its relationship to deep convection, mode-water formation, and the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. Historically, quantifying the relationship between sea ice and ocean variability has been difficult because of in situ observation paucity and technical challenges associated with synthesizing observations with numerical models. Here the relationship between ice and ocean variability is explored by analyzing new estimates of the ocean-ice state in the northwest North Atlantic. The estimates are syntheses of in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data with a regional ⅓° coupled ocean-sea ice model. The synthesis of sea ice data is achieved with an improved adjoint of a thermodynamic ice model. Model and data are made consistent, in a least squares sense, by iteratively adjusting control variables, including ocean initial and lateral boundary conditions and the atmospheric state, to minimize an uncertainty-weighted model-data misfit cost function. The utility of the state estimate is demonstrated in an analysis of energy and buoyancy budgets in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). In mid-March the system achieves a state of quasi-equilibrium during which net ice growth and melt approaches zero; newly formed ice diverges from coastal areas and converges via wind and ocean forcing in the MIZ. The convergence of ice mass in the MIZ is ablated primarily by turbulent ocean-ice enthalpy fluxes. The primary source of the enthalpy required for sustained MIZ ice ablation is the sensible heat reservoir of the subtropical-origin subsurface waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eulerian and Lagrangian statistics of the surface flows over the South China Sea (SCS) are investigated based on observations of satellite-tracked Lagrangian drifters of the Surface Velocity Program. Although the dataset contains the most recent observations up to 2011, the spatial and temporal distributions of the data are quite inhomogeneous. The Luzon Strait as well as the northern and western parts of the SCS are heavily sampled by drifters whereas the internal SCS is less sampled. The overall Eulerian mean circulation derived from all drifter observations resembles the wintertime circulations because of the seasonal sampling bias toward wintertime. It is found that the calculation of the diffusivity may be misled by the low-frequency temporal variabilities such as annual cycle, which could be removed using the Gauss-Markov decomposition. In the regions around Luzon Strait, typical values of diffusivity, time scale, and length scale are 3.7-11.9 × 107 cm2 s−1, 0.8-1.9 days, and 16.4-44.4 km, respectively. In the regions around Hainan Island and the western boundary of the SCS, the typical estimated diffusivity and length scale are slightly smaller, that is, 2.3-6.9 × 107 cm2 s−1 and 12.8-33.7 km while the time scale (0.8-2.0 days) is approximately the same as that in the regions around Luzon Strait. Although these regions are close to the coast, the 'flux versus gradient' relationship is still valid in these coastal regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the coherence between ocean bottom pressure signals at the Rapid Climate Change programme (RAPID) West Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE) array on the western North Atlantic continental slope, including the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Line W. Highly coherent pressure signals propagate southwestward along the slope, at speeds in excess of 128 m s−1, consistent with expectations of barotropic Kelvin-like waves. Coherent signals are also evidenced in the smaller pressure differences relative to 1000-m depth, which are expected to be associated with depth-dependent basinwide meridional transport variations or an overturning circulation. These signals are coherent and almost in phase for all time scales from 3.6 years down to 3 months. Coherence is still seen at shorter time scales for which group delay estimates are consistent with a propagation speed of about 1 m s−1 over 990 km of continental slope but with large error bounds on the speed. This is roughly consistent with expectations for propagation of coastally trapped waves, though somewhat slower than expected. A comparison with both Eulerian currents and Lagrangian float measurements shows that the coherence is inconsistent with a propagation of signals by advection, except possibly on time scales longer than 6 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses a sector configuration of an ocean general circulation model to examine the sensitivity of circumpolar transport and meridional overturning to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress and global diapycnal mixing. At eddy-permitting, and finer, resolution, the sensitivity of circumpolar transport to forcing magnitude is drastically reduced. At sufficiently high resolution, there is little or no sensitivity of circumpolar transport to wind stress, even in the limit of no wind. In contrast, the meridional overturning circulation continues to vary with Southern Ocean wind stress, but with reduced sensitivity in the limit of high wind stress. Both the circumpolar transport and meridional overturning continue to vary with diapycnal diffusivity at all model resolutions. The circumpolar transport becomes less sensitive to changes in diapycnal diffusivity at higher resolution, although sensitivity always remains. In contrast, the overturning circulation is more sensitive to change in diapycnal diffusivity when the resolution is high enough to permit mesoscale eddies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal variation of Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport is investigated using ocean general circulation model experiments with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Twenty-eight years (1981-2008) of 1/3° Indo-Pacific basin HYCOM simulations and three years (2004-06) from a 1/12° global HYCOM simulation are analyzed. Both models are able to simulate the seasonal variation of upper-ocean currents and the total transport through Makassar Strait measured by International Nusantara Stratification and Transport (INSTANT) moorings reasonably well. The annual cycle of upper-ocean currents is then calculated from the Indo-Pacific HYCOM simulation. The reduction of southward currents at Makassar Strait during April-May and October-November is evident, consistent with the INSTANT observations. Analysis of the upper-ocean currents suggests that the reduction in ITF transport during April-May and October-November results from the wind variation in the tropical Indian Ocean through the generation of a Wyrtki jet and the propagation of coastal Kelvin waves, while the subsequent recovery during January-March originates from upper-ocean variability associated with annual Rossby waves in the Pacific that are enhanced by western Pacific winds. These processes are also found in the global HYCOM simulation during the period of the INSTANT observations. The model experiments forced with annual-mean climatological wind stress in the Pacific and 3-day mean wind stress in the Indian Ocean show the reduction of southward currents at Makassar Strait during October-November but no subsequent recovery during January-March, confirming the relative importance of wind variations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans for the ITF transport in each season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subsurface variability of potential temperature and salinity south of Australia along 130°°E is studied over a 25-yr period (1980--2004). The study is done with fields provided by a global eddy-permitting model of the DRAKKAR project forced by atmospheric reanalysis. The analysis performed by C. Sun and D. R. Watts with in situ hydrographic data is repeated. Sun and Watts have investigated the EOF modes in streamfunction space along the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) SR3 section. In particular, they found that an EOF mode, which they called the ''pulsation mode,'' strongly dominates subsurface thermohaline variations. Here, it is found that, in the model, an EOF mode with spatial structure similar to the Sun and Watts pulsation mode dominates subsurface thermohaline variations in streamfunction space. The mode displays a maximum of variability at the Subantarctic Front (SAF) between Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). The associated time series exhibits an intermittent interseasonal frequency (3--6 months), especially during three periods (1983--84, 1990, and 1994--96). Some energy is also found with a 4-yr period. Further analyses reveal that the pulsation mode can also be observed in physical space. The pulsation mode is found to be related to movements of the SAF constrained by the bathymetry of the Southeast Indian Ridge. The pulsation mode displays many similarities with cold-core eddy events rather than being related to variations of the westerly wind stress, as previously proposed. The impact of those events on SAMW properties remains unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean variations at semiannual, annual, and interannual time scales in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region of the southern Philippine Sea were examined using data derived from underwater sensors on Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) buoys at 8°°N, 137°°E; 5°°N, 137°°E; and 8°°N, 130°°E. Annual signal dominated above 300-m depth in the MD region. At 5°°N, 137°°E, saline water exceeding 35 psu was observed at 100--200-m depth from boreal winter to spring, seemingly associated with the meridional migration of the North Equatorial Countercurrent during these seasons. Thermocline ascent, probably related to the MD, was also observed from boreal winter to spring. An important mechanism of the annual variation of the MD at 5°°N seems to be the annual variability of local wind, as mentioned in past studies. However, annual variability at 8°°N seems to be due to Rossby waves originating west of 150°°W rather than to local wind effects. Semiannual variation was also observed, with its amplitude reaching 40%%--70%% of the annual signal. With regard to interannual variability, ocean variation on the time scale of the El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was seen; upper heat content (above 300-m depth) in the Mindanao Dome region decreased during the 2002--03 and 2006--07 El Niño periods and increased between those periods. Increasing upper heat content in this region after 2005 was probably associated with large negative anomalies of Ekman pumping (downwelling) that appeared from 2005 to 2006 east of 150°°E and north of 5°°N. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations from a fine-resolution global coupled model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.4 (CM2.4), are presented, and the results are compared with a coarse version of the same coupled model, CM2.1, under idealized climate change scenarios. A particular focus is given to the dynamical response of the Southern Ocean and the role played by the eddies—parameterized or permitted—in setting the residual circulation and meridional density structure. Compared to the case in which eddies are parameterized and consistent with recent observational and idealized modeling studies, the eddy-permitting integrations of CM2.4 show that eddy activity is greatly energized with increasing mechanical and buoyancy forcings, buffering the ocean to atmospheric changes, and the magnitude of the residual oceanic circulation response is thus greatly reduced. Although compensation is far from being perfect, changes in poleward eddy fluxes partially compensate for the enhanced equatorward Ekman transport, leading to weak modifications in local isopycnal slopes, transport by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and overturning circulation. Since the presence of active ocean eddy dynamics buffers the oceanic response to atmospheric changes, the associated atmospheric response to those reduced ocean changes is also weakened. Further, it is hypothesized that present numerical approaches for the parameterization of eddy-induced transports could be too restrictive and prevent coarse-resolution models from faithfully representing the eddy response to variability and change in the forcing fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high-resolution sea ice–ocean numerical model of the North Water polynya has been developed to study the wind-driven circulation during polynya events. An idealized three-layer stratified ocean is used to initialize the model to characterize the baroclinic response to realistic wind and ice conditions. The model general circulation pattern is mainly forced by an along-channel sea level gradient between the Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay, which determines the magnitude of the southward Baffin Current, and by an across-channel sea level gradient in Baffin Bay, which drives the northward West Greenland Current (WGC). These two currents are found to be anticorrelated to each other in the Smith Sound area. During strong northerly wind events, occurring quite frequently in the winter–spring period in the polynya, nutrient-rich Baffin Bay waters transported by the WGC are forced toward the Greenland shelf, coinciding with upwelling events along the Greenland coast. Whenever an ice bridge is present (i.e., the polynya exists and is substantially open), upwelling also occurs at the landfast ice edge. In such cases, the total upwelling area is increased by an amount that depends on the form of the ice bridge but could easily double during certain years. The baroclinic circulation associated with the upwelling response includes the formation of a cyclonic eddy attached to the ice edge that is generated during strong northerly wind events. Primary production estimations reveal that upwelling during polynya events plays a significant role in the early spring phytoplankton bloom, suggesting that the disappearance of the polynya as a result of climate change may have profound implications for the entire ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The incorporation of local temperature and salinity observations from the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA), as well as the cable estimates of volume transport in the Florida Current (FC), is tested in the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean–Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (ECCO–GODAE) estimation system for their impact on the estimate of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the meridional heat transport in the Atlantic. An experimental setup covering the first deployment period of RAPID–MOCHA from March 2004 to March 2005 is used to test different strategies for incorporating these datasets. Incorporating both monthly means of the FC data and monthly means of the RAPID–MOCHA temperature and salinity measurements at the eastern and western boundaries of the basin as an observational constraint in a 1-yr experiment results in an adjustment to the reference estimate, which does not include these datasets, of approximately 1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the MOC at 26°N and the adjacent latitudes (approximately ±15°), with a larger northward branch of the MOC above 1000 m, compensated by a larger flow in the southward branch of the MOC between approximately 2000 and 3000 m. The meridional heat transport from 26°N to near 40°N is approximately 0.05 PW larger than in the reference experiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical models are used to test whether the sea surface height (SSH) can be used as an indicator for the variability of Atlantic meridional oceanic mass transports. The results suggest that if the transports over the western boundary current region and those in the eastern part of the basin are considered separately, significant correlations (0.3–0.9) are found between zonal SSH differences and the meridional transports in the top 1100 m. Much weaker correlations are found for the basinwide transport, which corresponds to the surface branch of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). For the eastern and western branches of the meridional transport, combining the SSH signal with the baroclinic structure obtained from Rossby wave theory enables calculation of a quantitative estimate of the transport variability in the top 1100 m. The results of the method are less convincing for the variability of the MOC. The reason for this is that even small relative errors in the variability of the eastern and western branches can be large compared with the MOC variability. These errors project onto the sum of the eastern and western transports and therefore onto the surface branch of the MOC. Nevertheless, being able to infer transport anomalies from SSH signals in the eastern and western parts of the Atlantic might prove useful in interpreting MOC observations from the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) mooring array at 26°N, which show a large subannual variability that is mainly due to changes at the western boundary. Transports inferred from the SSH could help to identify the origin of this variability and whether transport anomalies propagate into the western boundary region from the basin interior or from other latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The natural variability of the Weddell Sea variety of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is examined in a long-term integration of a coupled climate model. Examination of passive tracer concentrations suggests that the model AABW is predominantly sourced in the Weddell Sea. The maximum rate of the Atlantic sector Antarctic overturning (ψatl) is shown to effectively represent the outflow of Weddell Sea deep and bottom waters and the compensating inflow of Warm Deep Water (WDW). The variability of ψatl is found to be driven by surface density variability, which is in turn controlled by sea surface salinity (SSS). This suggests that SSS is a better proxy than SST for post-Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions of the AABW overturning rate. Heat–salt budget and composite analyses reveal that during years of high Weddell Sea salinity, there is an increased removal of summertime sea ice by enhanced wind-driven ice drift, resulting in increased solar radiation absorbed into the ocean. The larger ice-free region in summer then leads to enhanced air–sea heat loss, more rapid ice growth, and therefore greater brine rejection during winter. Together with a negative feedback mechanism involving anomalous WDW inflow and sea ice melting, this results in positively correlated θ–S anomalies that in turn drive anomalous convection, impacting AABW variability. Analysis of the propagation of θ–S anomalies is conducted along an isopycnal surface marking the separation boundary between AABW and the overlying Circumpolar Deep Water. Empirical orthogonal function analyses reveal propagation of θ–S anomalies from the Weddell Sea into the Atlantic interior with the dominant modes characterized by fluctuations on interannual to centennial time scales. Although salinity variability is dominated by along-isopycnal propagation, θ variability is dominated by isopycnal heaving, which implies propagation of density anomalies with the speed of baroclinic waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]