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In this paper, seasonal variation of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) bifurcation off the Madagascar coast in the upper south Indian Ocean (SIO) is investigated based on a new climatology derived from the World Ocean Database and 19-year satellite altimeter observations. The mean bifurcation integrated over the upper thermocline is around 18°S and reaches the southernmost position in June/July and the northernmost position in November/December, with a north-south amplitude of about 1°. It is demonstrated that the linear, reduced gravity, long Rossby model, which works well for the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation in the North Pacific, is insufficient to reproduce the seasonal cycle and the mean position of the SEC bifurcation off the Madagascar coast. This suggests the importance of Madagascar in regulating the SEC bifurcation. Application of Godfrey's island rule reveals that compared to the zero Sverdrup transport latitude, the mean SEC bifurcation is shifted poleward by over 0.8° because of the meridional transport of about 5 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) between Madagascar and Australia. A time-dependent linear model that extends the Godfrey's island rule is adopted to examine the seasonal variation of the SEC bifurcation. This time-dependent island rule model simulates the seasonal SEC bifurcation well both in terms of its mean position and peak seasons. It provides a dynamic framework to clarify the baroclinic adjustment processes involved in the presence of an island. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]