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Purpose: This study evaluated the effect of macroeconomic factors on residential real estate (RE) investment returns in the cities of Abuja and Lagos, Nigeria, with a view to guiding RE investors and researchers. Design/methodology/approach: A survey research design was employed using a questionnaire to collect RE transaction data from 2008 to 2022 from estate surveying and valuation firms in the study areas. Rental and capital value data collected were used to construct rental and capital value indices and total returns on investment. The macroeconomic data used were retrieved from the archives of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Granger causality (GC) and multiple regression models were adopted to evaluate the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on residential RE investment returns in the study areas. Findings: The study found a progressive upward movement in rental and capital values of residential RE investment in the study areas within the study period. Total and risk-adjusted returns on investment were equally positive within the study period. Only the inflation rate, unemployment rate and real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were found to be the major determinants of residential RE investment returns in the study areas within the study period. Research limitations/implications: The secrecy associated with property transaction information/data by RE practitioners in the study areas posed a challenge. Property transaction data were not adequately kept in a way for easier access and retrieval in many of the estate firms and agent offices. Consequently, there was a lack of data that spanned the study period in some of the sampled estate firms or agent offices. This data collection challenge was, however, overcome by the excess time spent retrieving the required data for this study to ensure that the findings appropriately answer the research questions. Practical implications: Inflation and GDP per capita have been found to be significant factors that influence residential RE investment performance in the study areas. Therefore, investors should pay attention to these identified macroeconomic factors for residential RE investment in the study areas whilst making investment decisions in order to mitigate a possible loss of income or return. The government should formulate and implement economic policies that would address the current high unemployment and inflation rates in Nigeria at large. Originality/value: This study has extended and further enriched the existing body of knowledge in the field of RE investment analysis in Nigeria. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first to adopt the Cornish Fisher value-at-risk and modified Sharpe ratio models to analyse risk and risk-adjusted returns on residential RE investment, respectively, in Nigeria. It has therefore redirected the focus of RE researchers and practitioners to a more objective approach to RE investment performance analysis in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study systematically reviewed existing literature on the impact of economic uncertainty on property performance to highlight focus areas and spur future research amid unprecedented global uncertainty levels. Conceptually, uncertainty levels and environmental dynamism are related to investors' risk judgement and decision-making. Design/methodology/approach: Peer-reviewed journal articles published from 2007 to 2022 were assembled and arranged through the Scientific Procedures and Rationales for Systematic Literature Reviews (SPAR-4-SLR) protocol. The initial search produced 2,028 results from the Web of Science and Scopus databases, which were rigorously purified for a final dataset of 70 articles. These records were subsequently assessed through content analysis, bibliographic modelling, topic modelling and thematic analysis. Recurring themes were visualised using the VOSviewer software. Findings: The existing literature suggests that economic uncertainty negatively impacts investment volumes, returns and performance. Research has also increased since 2018, with a strong emphasis on the housing sector and developed property markets. Commercial property and emerging markets account for only 10 and 8% of previous research, respectively. Practical implications: These findings highlight the negative impact of economic uncertainties on property performance and investment volumes, which necessitate careful risk assessment. Given the high susceptibility of emerging and commercial property markets to uncertainty, these markets warrant further research amid ongoing uncertainty concerns across the globe. Originality/value: Given current unprecedented levels of global uncertainty, the effects of economic uncertainty have received renewed interest. This study synthesised the current understanding of how different property markets respond to increased uncertainty and outlined future research directions to enhance understanding. Themes and relationships were also integrated into a conceptual map summarising the reported effects of economic uncertainty on housing, commercial property, investment and behaviour in the property market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In 2014, real estate investment trust (REIT) emerged as a new alternative investment option in India. This research aims to give an empirical authentication of the Indian REITs performance from April 2019 to July 2022 across a range of investment variables. Design/methodology/approach: Using monthly total returns in Indian Rupee, risk-adjusted Indian REIT performance and investment portfolio characteristics are examined. Indian REITs' potential in a diversified multi-asset portfolio is analysed using the mean-variance analysis, asset allocation diagram and efficient frontier. Findings: During April 2019–July 2022, Indian REITs provided a lower return than stocks but outperformed bonds despite coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns, which hurt the traditional working from office concept. The study also examined REIT allocation to an Indian mixed-asset portfolio and the benefits of a diversified portfolio. Practical implications: Indian REITs provide a liquid, transparent alternative to direct property for investors seeking exposure to Indian real estate markets. Indian REITs gave real estate companies an extra funding source and investors an alternate asset. This paper explores Indian REITs' potential opportunities, given that domestic and foreign investors' demand for transparent property investment in India. The analysis found a positive early performance despite a challenging environment. Originality/value: This paper offers the first empirical performance validation of Indian REITs as a way to obtain exposure to commercial property in India and the REITs' role in a diversified asset portfolio. The authors' study improves investors' decision-making abilities by providing empirically validated, valuable and practicable property investing insights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of this briefing is to look at the often overlooked impact of gearing (or leverage) on risk. The positive impact on equity return in a strong market is gained by increasing the overall risk of the investment and potentially negative impacts on returns in weak markets. Design/methodology/approach: This Education Briefing is an explanation of how the addition of individual assets to a portfolio can, with gearing, impact upon the portfolio risk/return profile. Findings: Through a simple example, this briefing shows how geared portfolios can struggle in poor markets when the servicing of the debt (at increased interest rates) can have a severe negative impact upon returns. Practical implications: The process of borrowing at a bank rate below the return rate on an investment project can increase the equity return of the project as long as all incomes and interest rate remain at appropriate levels but when incomes fall or disappear and/or interest rates rise, the implication for the assets return and/or solvency can be highly significant. Originality/value: This is a review of existing models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Within the context of ESG (Environment, Social and Governance), environmental sustainability has taken on increased global importance in recent years. Similarly, real estate investment managers in developing their global real estate investment portfolios need a fuller understanding of the ESG and environmental sustainability dimensions of these global real estate markets for more informed real estate investment decisions. Using the JLL GRETI sustainability sub-index, this paper examines the environmental sustainability transparency status of 99 global real estate markets over 2016–2020 and explores various strategic issues regarding ESG and environmental sustainability; particularly the critical issues relating to climate risk mitigation, climate resilience and zero-carbon. The current status of environmental sustainability in these 99 real estate markets is assessed, with areas for "best practice" improvement identified to the benefit of real estate investment managers; particularly the improvements needed in ESG to support real estate investment in the emerging real estate markets. Design/methodology/approach: The JLL GRETI sustainability sub-index is analysed to examine strategic issues relating to environmental sustainability transparency. 99 real estate markets are assessed globally for a range of critical ESG issues over 2016–2020. Differences between the developed and emerging real estate markets are highlighted. Findings: Considerable variation was seen in the ESG and environmental sustainability practices, procedures and frameworks across these 99 real estate markets. This was particularly evident amongst the emerging real estate markets. Compared to the other five dimensions for real estate market transparency, environmental sustainability was seen to be well behind these other dimensions in most markets. Progress has been made in recent years, but it has been slow and steady rather than at a dynamic level. Clearly, more is needed globally to enhance the stature of environmental sustainability in the context of an increasing focus on ESG and specifically on climate risk mitigation, climate resilience and zero-carbon in real estate investment. Practical implications: With ESG and environmental sustainability taking on increased importance across the international real estate markets, it is important that real estate fund managers have a full understanding of the ESG and environmental sustainability status of these real estate markets where they may be considering real estate investment opportunities; this includes both the developed and emerging real estate markets. This is essential to ensure future capital raising for new funds, as well as supporting the global ESG agenda by the real estate investment community. Specific strategies are also identified for emerging real estate markets to improve their environmental sustainability practices and ESG status. Originality/value: This is the first paper to use the JLL GRETI sustainability sub-index to assess the environmental sustainability status of 99 real estate markets globally; providing strategic insights for real estate investment managers as they develop their global real estate portfolios and more fully embrace the challenges of ESG and environmental sustainability in the real estate space going forward. Specific strategies are clearly identified for all markets to improve their environmental sustainability ratings to the benefit of both global real estate investment and the broader communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study examines the relationship between investor cognitive bias, investor intuitive attributes and investment decision quality in commercial real estate in Uganda. Design/methodology/approach: A cross-sectional research survey was used in this study, and data were collected from 200 investors of commercial real estate in Uganda using a structured questionnaire. Hierarchical regression analysis was used to test the hypotheses derived under this study. Findings: The results indicate that investor cognitive bias and investor intuitive attributes are positive and significant determinants of investment decision quality in commercial real estate. In addition, the two components of Investor cognitive bias (framing variation and cognitive heuristics) are positive and significant determinants of investment decision quality, whereas mental accounting is a negative and significant determinant of investment decision quality. For investor intuitive attributes, confidence degree and loss aversion are positive and significant determinants of investment decision quality, whereas herding behavior is a negative and significant determinant of investment decision quality in commercial real estate in Uganda. Practical implications: For practitioners in commercial real estate sector should emphasize independent evaluation of investment opportunities (framing variation), simplify information regarding investments (Cognitive heuristics), believe in own abilities (Confidence degree), be risk averse (loss aversion) and avoid making decisions based on subjective visual mind (mental accounting) and group think/herding in order to make quality investment decisions. For policymakers, the study has illuminated factors such as provision of reliable information that ought to be taken into account when promulgating policies for regulation of the commercial real estate sector. This will help investors to come up with investment decisions which are plausible. Originality/value: Few studies have focused on investor cognitive bias and investor intuitive attributes on investment decision quality in commercial real estate. This study is the first to examine the relationship, especially in the commercial real estate sector in a developing country like Uganda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to discuss the principal measures of performance used in property and other investment types. In particular, the briefing will explore the relationship of the expected IRR with the initial return, highlighting the role of growth in the investment dynamic. Design/methodology/approach: This education briefing is an overview of investment growth models with worked examples. Findings: The analysis of property growth models is akin to the Fisher and Gordon growth models used in other finance markets. Practical implications: This comparison of the models can work for all forms of investment. Similarly, instead of looking at the overall return as the measure of comparison (expected vs required), it is possible to work backwards and deduce market expectations and compare these with the investors view on those variables. Originality/value: This is a review of existing models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose Investment in non-listed real estate funds (NREFs) in an emerging economy like India has its own challenges that entail a detailed understanding of the risks. The purpose of this paper is to identify the key risk factors across the life cycle of a NREF, based on a considered feedback of various real estate fund management stakeholders. It is important for the investors and fund managers to appreciate these risk factors to make informed investment decisions.Design/methodology/approach The present study based on the literature survey and discussion with experts identifies 39 risk attributes, which were further summarized using factor analysis into a smaller set of factors impacting NREF returns (risk). The relative importance of each risk attribute was examined and ranked using the relative importance index (RII). Further, cluster analysis using Euclidian distance was used to partition these risk attributes in various segments depending on their importance.Findings The risk attributes are summarized as five risk factors, i.e. regulatory RISK, foreign direct investment risk, entry risk, business risk and project risk. Whereas the top five perceived risk attributes are investee/partner risk, project entitlement risk, title risk, legislative and regulatory risk and project execution risk.Practical implications This study has significance to the industry practitioners and the academic community in developing an understanding of the dynamic nature of risks across the life cycle of the NREFs in India and classifying them at the macro-meso-micro levels.Originality/value This paper is one of the first attempts to understand the risks impacting NREFs in India. It will help investors develop a better strategic understanding of the risks across the life cycle of an investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider the merits of using projects bonds to finance infrastructure investment projects and considers the pricing of such bonds and the level of risk premium demanded by the market. Design/methodology/approach – The research used a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods with desk-based study and interviews. Interviews were held with policy makers, local authority staff, planners, developers, investors, fund managers and academics. Infrastructure bond data were obtained from the Bloomberg database on all project bonds issued in four Asian countries – Malaysia, China, Taiwan and India – over the period 2003-2014. Findings – The analysis indicates investor appetite for project bonds and suggests that a risk premium of between 150 and 300 basis points over the comparable government bond is appropriate depending on the sector and the degree of government involvement in underwriting the issue. Practical implications – The paper argues that the introduction of project bonds would be an important innovation, assisting the financing of infrastructure investment at a time when bank lending is likely to remain fragile. The current conditions in the sovereign debt market, where strong demand has forced down yields, has opened up the opportunity to introduce project bonds offering a higher yield to satisfy institutional investment demand for long term fixed income products. Originality/value – The originality of this paper stems from the analysis of the merits of using projects bonds to finance infrastructure investment projects, the pricing of such bonds and the level of risk premium demanded by the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – There is significant research related to risk and uncertainty in valuation. Risk, in valuation, is mostly communicated to investors in qualitative terms. There has been some research in developed markets to communicate risk quantitatively to clients through property risk scores. However there is paucity of research on communicating risk in emerging markets where the valuation profession is still evolving. Indian property markets have emerged as one the fastest growing markets in the last five years. With the growth in Indian economy and the emergence of indirect property investment market, it is likely that domestic and international passive investors would play an important role in property investment in India. Valuation of assets in portfolio and communication of risk in appropriate way would gain utmost importance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses analytical hierarchical process method to quantitatively assess risk to value for office properties in India. This study focuses on identifying principal elements of risk as perceived by key market players in an emerging economy like India. It identifies fundamentals of market, property and lease to determine valuation risk. It may be highlighted here that the risk that this paper is analysing is not the risk that is associated with the valuation for valuer who is conducting valuation but systematic and non-systematic risk associated with property. A two round of survey has been conducted to find various principal elements of valuation risk and sub criteria’s through an online survey conducted through survey monkey. Findings – The study found that in an emerging market like India there are limited exit option for developers and investors due to absence of exit vehicle like REITs for office property. Principal element of risk considered is the resale of property, i.e. exit from an investment, followed by tenant and lease specific elements to be other principal elements of risk in the order tenant risk, lock-in duration, functional obsolescence and lease duration. Other market risks like yield movement, rental movement, occupier demand were not considered principal elements of risk. Research limitations/implications – The study could be expanded further by increasing the sample size and as this study demonstrates present market sentiments. Study needs to be updated periodically to retain its practical importance and relevance to the industry. Practical implications – Findings of this study could be used by valuers and investors investing in office properties in India. Originality/value – This is the first paper on risk scoring for commercial properties in the Indian market. It has high importance as Indian market for office space will grow significantly with introduction of REITs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) on the risk and returns of listed and delisted property firms on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study was investigated to understand the impact of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) property sector charter and effect of government intervention on property listed markets. Design/methodology/approach – The study examines the performance trends of the listed and delisted property firms on the JSE from January 2006 to January 2012. The data were obtained from McGregor BFA database to compute the risk and return measures of the listed and delisted property firms. The study employs a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the alpha (outperformance) and beta (risk) to examine the trend amongst the BEE and non-BEE firms, Sharpe ratio was also employed as a measurement of performance. A comparative study is employed to analyse the risks and returns between listed property firms that are BEE compliant and BEE non-compliant. Findings – Results show that there exists differences in returns and risk between BEE-compliant firms and non-BEE-compliant firms. The study shows that BEE-compliant firms have higher returns than non-BEE firms and are less risky than non-BEE firms. By establishing this relationship, this possibly affects the investor’s decision to invest in BEE firms rather than non-BBBEE firms. This study can also assist the government in strategically adjusting the policy. Research limitations/implications – This study employs a CAPM which is a single-factor model. Further study could employ a multi-factor model. Practical implications – The results of this investigation, with the effects of BEE on returns, using annualized returns, the Sharpe ratio and alpha (outperformance), results show that BEE firms perform better than non-BEE firms. These results pose several implications for investors particularly when structuring their portfolios, further study would need to examine the role of BEE on stock returns in line with other factors that affect stock returns. The results in this study have several implications for government agencies, there may be the need to monitor the effect of the BEE policies on firm returns and re-calibrate policies accordingly. Originality/value – This study investigates the performance of listed property firms on the JSE which are BEE compliant. This is the first study to investigate listed property firms which are BEE compliant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – Modern property investment allocation techniques are typically based on recognised measures of return and risk. Whilst these models work well in theory under stable conditions, they can fail when stable assumptions cease to hold and extreme volatility occurs. This is evident in commercial property markets which can experience extended stable periods followed by large concentrated negative price fluctuations as a result of major unpredictable events. This extreme volatility may not be fully reflected in traditional risk calculations and can lead to ruin. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This research studies 28 years of quarterly Australian direct commercial property market performance data for normal distribution features and signs of extreme downside risk. For the extreme values, Power Law distribution models were examined as to provide a better probability measure of large negative price fluctuations. Findings – The results show that the normal bell curve distribution underestimated actual extreme values both by frequency and extent, being by at least 30 per cent for the outermost data point. For the statistical outliers beyond 2 SD, a Power Law distribution can overcome many of the shortcomings of the standard deviation approach and therefore better measure the probability of ruin, being extreme downside risk. Practical implications – In highlighting the challenges to measuring property market performance, analysis of extreme downside risk should be separated from traditional standard deviation risk calculations. In recognising these two different types of risk, extreme downside risk has a magnified domino effect with the tendency of bad news to come in crowds. Big price changes can lead to market crashes and financial ruin which is well beyond the standard deviation risk measure. This needs to be recognised and developed as there is evidence that extreme downside risk determinants are increasing by magnitude, frequency and impact. Originality/value – Analysis of extreme downside risk should form a key part of the property decision process and be included in the property investment manager’s toolkit. Modelling techniques for estimating measures of tail risk provide challenges and have shown to be beyond traditional risk management practices, being too narrow and constraining a definition. Measuring extreme risk and the likelihood of ruin is the first step in analysing and dealing with risk in both an asset class and portfolio context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]