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This paper examines the uneven geography of COVID‐19‐related excess mortality during the first wave of the pandemic in Europe, before assessing the factors behind the geographical differences in impact. The analysis of 206 regions across 23 European countries reveals a distinct COVID‐19 geography. Excess deaths were concentrated in a limited number of regions—expected deaths exceeded 20% in just 16 regions—with more than 40% of the regions considered experiencing no excess mortality during the first 6 months of 2020. Highly connected regions, in colder and dryer climates, with high air pollution levels, and relatively poorly endowed health systems witnessed the highest incidence of excess mortality. Institutional factors also played an important role. The first wave hit regions with a combination of weak and declining formal institutional quality and fragile informal institutions hardest. Low and declining national government effectiveness, together with a limited capacity to reach out across societal divides, and a frequent tendency to meet with friends and family were powerful drivers of regional excess mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the important question "Which European areas will be able to better react to the crisis induced by COVID‐19 and how regional disparities will look like?" To provide an answer, a "new normality" scenario is built, comprising the structural changes likely to take place in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. To develop such scenario, two intermediate steps are necessary, in both cases relying on the use of the latest generation of the MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territorial (MASST4) model. First, short‐run costs of the COVID‐induced lockdowns, in terms of missed GDP, are calculated for all European NUTS2 regions, needed because of the lack of short‐run statistics about the extent of the regional costs caused by the lockdowns that will only appear in 2 years. Second, a long‐run simulation of the economic rebound expected to take place from 2021 through 2030 is presented, assuming, among other trends, that no further national lockdowns will be undertaken in European countries. In the "new normality" scenario, regional disparity trends will decrease as a result of a decisive rebound of those countries mostly hit by the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]