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Energy is essential for the development of a city. The energy structure of China, dominated by coal, has caused serious problems, such as resource depletion, environmental pollution, and climate change. These problems have posed severe challenges to the sustainable development of mega--cities such as Shanghai. In order to ensure security of energy supply and alleviate the corresponding environmental pollution, these cities should effectively restructure their energy supply. This paper quantitatively analyzed the future energy consumption demand in Shanghai and its effects on environmental quality based on the MARKAL model with the aim of providing theoretical support for the government decision regarding energy policy, energy technology, adjustment of energy supply structure, etc. Different scenarios have been set up in light of the natural gas distributed supply system, clean and efficient coal-fired power technologies, energy-saving of industrial boilers technologies, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (advanced power generation technology), and wind power technologies. The results obtained by the MARKAL model show that total consumption of the whole society energy in Shanghai will reach 143 572 700 tons of standard coal in 2015, and 199 645 800 tons of standard coal in 2020. Thus, the future demand for energy consumption is huge astronomical, with about an average annual growth rate of 4%. The consumption of coal and other primary energy could decline by improving the energy efficiency and increasing renewable energy use, which would reduce pollutants emissions. At the same time, Shanghai should continue research on carbon dioxide emissions technology and its application in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to define low carbon society (LCS) based on the phase diagram with the variables from the IPAT [Human Impact (I) on the environment equals the product of population (P) affluence (A) and technology (T)], starting from the problem definitions: (1) Economy is not everything for LCS and (2) it is not clear if speed on the constraint is more important than liberation from it. To tackle these problems, two research questions are set: (1) What are the basic indicators, objects, and constraints to shape the argument of LCSs and (2) what are the historical paths of several countries and what can be said for their future paths toward carbon societies? Time series data from 1900 or before are used, while the phase diagram with the variables from the IPAT equation is used as the core methodology. In addition to the IPAT variables, the importance of land per capita shall be considered as another basic indicator for LCS related to the carrying capacity. The three different kinds of objects [i.e., total gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, and social indicator] and the two constraints (i.e., total emission and emission per capita) are considered, and it is shown that the combination of these objects and constraints strongly affects the argument of the carrying capacity of climate and land, development of economic system and economic man, and other human developments. Among the four cases analyzed in the phase diagram, the case where GDP per capita is object and total emission is constraint is given the most attention and requires the further research in the future since it does not contradict with a definition of LCS. It is also suggested that if changing the direction of the path with low carbon technology development takes time and cost, institutional arrangement would be additionally necessary in addition to market mechanism where optimal solutions are found on constraint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]