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To better address climate change and environmental pollution, it is of great practical significance to comprehensively evaluate the impact of low-carbon energy transition policies on carbon emission reduction. This paper conducts a policy quantitative evaluation of low-carbon energy transition policies from three dimensions: policy intensity, policy objective, and policy instrument. On this basis, the ridge regression model is used to analyze the carbon emission reduction effect of policies. The results show that (1) changes in policy quantities mainly cause the evolution of total policy effectiveness. The government's emphasis on low-carbon energy transition has fluctuated. (2) The two policy objectives of optimizing the use of fossil energy and developing a low-carbon concept are less synergistic with other policy objectives and neither has a significant impact on carbon reduction. (3) The government prefers to adopt command control policy instruments, but their actual carbon emission reduction effects are inferior to that of economic incentive policy instruments. These findings can provide a decision-making basis for the government to further formulate and optimize policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the process of economic transformation and structural adjustment, low-carbon development has become an intrinsic and realistic demand for China's national economic and social development. This paper builds a system dynamic (SD) model of China's low-carbon development based on the internal influencing mechanisms of carbon sources, carbon flows, and carbon sinks, and then explores the impact of carbon sources, carbon flows, and carbon sinks system on carbon emissions under different scenarios. The model in our study is effective and practical, and it can not only clearly demonstrate the interaction mechanism between various systems but also provide effective policy recommendations for policymakers. The results show that (1) with the steady growth of the economy, China's total energy consumption and carbon emissions have increased significantly. By 2025, the total energy consumption will reach 628 798 ten thousand tons, and the carbon emissions will reach 689 257 ten thousand tons; (2) as for energy and industrial structure, on the one hand, energy restructuring is more effective in reducing carbon emissions than is industrial restructuring; (3) carbon sinks also play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mid- and long-term energy requirements and greenhouse gas emission scenarios for China were presented by using the Integrated Policy Assessment Model of China. Technologies are the key component to reach a low carbon future. Technologies are identified with the scenario analysis. In order to realize the low carbon future, a technology roadmap was presented to reach the emission reduction up to 2050 in China. Twenty-eight key technologies are given in the paper for the technology roadmap, presenting learning curves. With full adoption of these key technologies, we do see ample opportunities for China to make the emission stable after 2020, without a large increase, and even start to have a deep reduction after 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]