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Background: The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) is an important concept in infectious disease epidemiology and the most important parameter to determine the transmissibility of a pathogen. This study aimed to estimate the nine-month trend of time-varying R of COVID-19 epidemic using the serial interval (SI) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Lorestan, west of Iran. Study design: Descriptive study. Methods: This study was conducted based on a cross-sectional method. The SI distribution was extracted from data and log-normal, Weibull, and Gamma models were fitted. The estimation of time-varying R 0 , a likelihood-based model was applied, which uses pairs of cases to estimate relative likelihood. Results: In this study, R t was estimated for SI 7-day and 14-day time-lapses from 27 February-14 November 2020. To check the robustness of the R 0 estimations, sensitivity analysis was performed using different SI distributions to estimate the reproduction number in 7-day and 14-day time-lapses. The R 0 ranged from 0.56 to 4.97 and 0.76 to 2.47 for 7-day and 14-day time-lapses. The doubling time was estimated to be 75.51 days (95% CI: 70.41, 81.41). Conclusions: Low R 0 of COVID-19 in some periods in Lorestan, west of Iran, could be an indication of preventive interventions, namely quarantine and isolation. To control the spread of the disease, the reproduction number should be reduced by decreasing the transmission and contact rates and shortening the infectious period.

Background: Although the epidemiology of road traffic accidents (RTAs) and their determining factors have been extensively investigated and debated in Iran, yet there is no data regarding socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from RTA in Iranian context. Since effective interventions to control, management and diminish the negative influence of RTAs would require understanding of numerous contributing factors, including the inequalities We aimed to quantify for the first time the socioeconomic differential in mortality or injuries from RTAs. Study design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: Overall, 50755 died and injured people from RTA from Mar 2015 to Feb 2016 were evaluated. The data were taken from traffic police department in Iran. We calculated concentration index (CI) to measure socioeconomic inequality in traffic-related mortality & injury. Data were analyzed using Stata software. Results: The mortality and injury rate from accidents was 1130.80 per 10000 accidents. The concentration index was negative for mortality rate (-0.11) of RTA, indicating the higher concentration of the rates among deprived groups. Conclusion: People with low socioeconomic level were more at risk for fatal accidents and injuries. Therefore, specific interventions on road safety should be delivered in the deprived drivers which uses from low safety level vehicles.

Background: Occupational injury is a cause of premature mortality, mainly in low- and middle-income countries. Occupational injuries estimated to kill more than 300,000 workers worldwide every year. We estimated the years of life lost (YLL) of fatal unintentional occupational injuries in Iran for the five years of 2012-2016. Study design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: To estimate the YLL, registered deaths due to occupational unintentional injury were identified from the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization. Estimated YLL was calculated according to Global Burden of Disease 2010 guideline. Population life expectancy in each corresponding years was retrieved from the national health database. All data collected entered into Excel software for calculations. Results: In 2012-2016, fatal unintentional occupational injuries were the cause of 8,606 deaths in Iran, resulting in 4.6 prematurely lost life yr per 1000 males and 0.3 yr per 1000 females among workers, every year. 98.7% of the deaths occurred in males. Males from 15 to 19 yr of age and females from 10 to 14 yr of age showed the highest YLL rates. The rate of YLLs per 1,000 workers per year was 3.99 overall, 4.6 in males, and 0.4 in females. Conclusion: Premature mortality due to occupational injury is still a serious problem in the Iranian population. Our findings may be useful from a health policy perspective for designing and prioritizing interventions focused on the prevention of premature loss of life. Known prevention strategies need to be implemented widely to diminish avoidable injuries in the workplace.

Background: Murder is one of the public health problems. According to the WHO reports, murder is fourth leading cause of death among young people. The aim of this study was applying joint point regression model to study trend of homicide mortality in Iran, 2006-2016. Study design: A cross-sectional panel (pseudo-panel) study. Methods: Homicide data during 2006 to 2016 were extracted from Iranian legal medicine organization. Trends of homicide incidence were summarized by annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) using non-linear segmented regression model. Results: Totally, 26918 homicide cases occurred during the period from 2006 to 2016. The highest and lowest frequency was related to the 15-29 yr (46.5%) and 0-4 yr (1.5%) age groups, respectively. The homicide incidence rate of the country in 2016 was 2.81 per 100,000. The four provinces of Sistan & Baluchistan, Khuzestan, Kerman and Ilam had the highest incidence rate in 2016, respectively. During the study period, the incidence rate of homicide in Iran and men have been significantly decreased (APC: -2.8% (95% CI: -3.9, -1.7) and -3.2% (95% CI: - 4.5, -1.8) respectively (PConclusion: The pattern of homicide rate has a downward trend in the country. Moreover, the varying observed trends in some provinces can be due to the variability in mental, geographical, socio-economic and cultural conditions in each region.

Background: We aimed to investigate the suicide rate led to death in the elderly population of Iran between 2008 and 2014. Study design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: The present study was conducted on all suicide-related deaths in elderly people (≥65 yr) during the years 2008 to 2014 reported to the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization. For data collection, legal medicine standard form was used and the cases were classified by age, gender, suicide way and time (year). The incidence of death from suicide was calculated by age and sex. Statistical soft-ware stata12 was used to analyze data. The significance level has been considered to be 0.05. Results: Overall, 1,601 suicide-related deaths were investigated throughout the country. The mean age was 70.36 ± 0.17 years. The incidence trend (per 100,000 people) of the elderly suicides in Iran indicates that successful suicides have been on the rise, rising from 3.7 in 2008 to 4.37 per 100,000 people in 2014. Conclusions: It is necessary to identify and treat suicidal important predisposing factors of suicide such as psycho-social illnesses including depression and also implement prevention programs and policies for this fast-rising population age-group.

Suicide is a major cause of unnatural deaths in the world. Its incidence is higher in western provinces of Iran. So far, there has not been any time series analysis of suicide in western provinces. The purpose of this study was to analyze suicide mortality data from 2006 to 2016 as well as to forecast the number of suicides for 2017 in four provinces of Iran (Ilam, Kermanshah and Lorestan and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad).Descriptive-analytic study.Data were analyzed by time- series analysis using R software. Three automatic methods (Auto.arima, ETS (Error Transitional Seasonality) and time series linear model (TSLM)) were fitted on the data. The best model after cross validation according to the mean absolute error measure was selected for forecasting.Totally, 7004 suicidal deaths occurred of which, 4259 were male and 2745 were female. The mean age of the study population was (32.05 ± 15.48 yr). Hanging and self-immolation were the most frequent types of suicide in men and women, respectively. The maximum and minimum number of suicides was occurred in July and August as well as January respectively.It is suggested that intervention measures should be designed in order to decrease the suicide rate particularly in the age group of 15-29 yr, and implemented as a pilot study, especially in these four provinces of Iran, which have a relatively high suicide rate.