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• Novel CRB vibration model considering contact stiffness and natural frequency characteristics. • The outer raceway spalling fault with varying sizes is simulated in this paper, considering spalling defect extents and load distribution. • This paper showed that the effects of contact stiffness variation on natural frequency characteristics by the statistical distribution of fault feature signals. The modeling of early spalling defects in cylindrical roller bearings (CRB) is a challenging problem in fault diagnosis. Due to the absence of prominent "drop-in" excitation, accurately describing the signal characteristics of the early failure mechanism model for CRBs becomes difficult. In this paper, the failure of cylindrical roller bearings due to spalling caused by fatigue is a frequent occurrence. The previous defect models have been centered on sharp-edge impact between the roller and spalling defects. However, they have not provided an adequate depiction of the variation in contact stiffness caused by roller-fault interaction. In this paper, a novel CRB vibration model that takes into account contact stiffness and natural frequency characteristics is proposed. The model considers both the load redistribution and contact stiffness variation caused by spalling defects. This new model provides a spring-damper system based on contact stiffness between the roller and raceway, enabling an estimation of the CRB system's natural frequency characteristics. The outer raceway spalling fault with varying sizes is simulated in this paper, taking into account spalling defect extents and load distribution. The vibration response of the fault signal model is investigated. The simulation results show that the load and contact stiffness will change as the roller passes through the defect zone. Furthermore, the statistical distribution of fault feature signals demonstrates the effects of contact stiffness variation on natural frequency characteristics. The experiments given in this paper have verified the simulation results of the proposed signal model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]