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In practice, we often need to identify individuals whose longitudinal behaviour is different from the behaviour of those well-functioning individuals, so that some unpleasant consequences (e.g. stroke) can be avoided or early detected. To handle such applications, a new statistical method, called dynamic screening system, has been developed in the literature. A recent version of this method can analyze correlated data. However, the computation involved is intensive. In this paper, we suggest a fast computing algorithm for the dynamic screening system. The algorithm can improve the effectiveness of the conventional dynamic screening system in certain cases. Numerical results show that the new algorithm works well in different cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider the problem of detecting outliers and influential points and propose an indirect classical Mahalanobis distance-based method (ICMD) for multivariate datasets. Rousseeuw and Van Zomeren described outliers as those points that do not follow the pattern of the majority of the data; this description has been commonly accepted in the statistical literature. First, we update this description to build ICMD by integrating the following idea: the role of at least one point in the data-driven pattern will be affected greatly before and after excluding an outlier. Then, a similar idea is used to identify influential points. The resulting algorithms are given in detail. Two artificial datasets and three real datasets are applied to show that ICMD is robust, swamping-free, and masking-resistant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models for dealing with survival data in the presence of a cured fraction of individuals have attracted the attention of many researchers and practitioners in recent years. In this paper, we propose a cure rate model under the competing risks scenario. For the number of causes that can lead to the event of interest, we assume the polylogarithm distribution. The model is flexible in the sense it encompasses some well-known models, which can be tested using large sample test statistics applied to nested models. Maximum-likelihood estimation based on the EM algorithm and hypothesis testing are investigated. Results of simulation studies designed to gauge the performance of the estimation method and of two test statistics are reported. The methodology is applied in the analysis of a data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an alternative method for the comparison of two diagnostic systems based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves is presented. ROC curve analysis is often used as a statistical tool for the evaluation of diagnostic systems. However, in general, the comparison of ROC curves is not straightforward, in particular, when they cross each other. A similar difficulty is also observed in the multi-objective optimization field where sets of solutions defining fronts must be compared with a multi-dimensional space. Thus, the proposed methodology is based on a procedure used to compare the performance of distinct multi-objective optimization algorithms. In general, methods based on the area under the ROC curves are not sensitive to the existence of crossing points between the curves. The new approach can deal with this situation and also allows the comparison of partial portions of ROC curves according to particular values of sensitivity and specificity of practical interest. Simulations results are presented. For illustration purposes, considering real data from newborns with very low birthweight, the new method was applied in order to discriminate the better index for evaluating the risk of death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the robustness of fractional integration estimates to different data frequencies. We show by means of Monte Carlo experiments that if the number of differences is an integer value (e.g. 0 or 1), there is no distortion when data are collected at wider intervals; however, if it is a fractional value, the distortion increases as the number of periods between the observations increases, which results in lower orders of integration than those of the true DGP. An empirical application using the S&P 500 index is also carried out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Locally stationary wavelet (LSW) processes, built on non-decimated wavelets, can be used to analyse and forecast non-stationary time series. They have been proved useful in the analysis of financial data. In this paper, we first carry out a sensitivity analysis, then propose some practical guidelines for choosing the wavelet bases for these processes. The existing forecasting algorithm is found to be vulnerable to outliers, and a new algorithm is proposed to overcome the weakness. The new algorithm is shown to be stable and outperforms the existing algorithm when applied to real financial data. The volatility forecasting ability of LSW modelling based on our new algorithm is then discussed and shown to be competitive with traditional GARCH models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A segmented line regression model has been used to describe changes in cancer incidence and mortality trends [Kim, H.-J., Fay, M.P., Feuer, E.J. and Midthune, D.N., 2000, Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates. Statistics in Medicine, 19, 335-351. Kim, H.-J., Fay, M.P., Yu, B., Barrett., M.J. and Feuer, E.J., 2004, Comparability of segmented line regression models. Biometrics, 60, 1005-1014.]. The least squares fit can be obtained by using either the grid search method proposed by Lerman [Lerman, P.M., 1980, Fitting segmented regression models by grid search. Applied Statistics, 29, 77-84.] which is implemented in Joinpoint 3.0 available at http://srab.cancer.gov/joinpoint/index.html, or by using the continuous fitting algorithm proposed by Hudson [Hudson, D.J., 1966, Fitting segmented curves whose join points have to be estimated. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 61, 1097-1129.] which will be implemented in the next version of Joinpoint software. Following the least squares fitting of the model, inference on the parameters can be pursued by using the asymptotic results of Hinkley [Hinkley, D.V., 1971, Inference in two-phase regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66, 736-743.] and Feder [Feder, P.I., 1975a, On asymptotic distribution theory in segmented regression Problems-Identified Case. The Annals of Statistics, 3, 49-83.] Feder [Feder, P.I., 1975b, The log likelihood ratio in segmented regression. The Annals of Statistics, 3, 84-97.] Via simulations, this paper empirically examines small sample behavior of these asymptotic results, studies how the two fitting methods, the grid search and the Hudson's algorithm affect these inferential procedures, and also assesses the robustness of the asymptotic inferential procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sampling the correlation matrix (R) plays an important role in statistical inference for correlated models. There are two main constraints on a correlation matrix: positive definiteness and fixed diagonal elements. These constraints make sampling R difficult. In this paper, an efficient generalized parameter expanded re-parametrization and Metropolis-Hastings (GPX-RPMH) algorithm for sampling a correlation matrix is proposed. Drawing all components of R simultaneously from its full conditional distribution is realized by first drawing a covariance matrix from the derived parameter expanded candidate density (PXCD), and then translating it back to a correlation matrix and accepting it according to a Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) acceptance rate. The mixing rate in the M-H step can be adjusted through a class of tuning parameters embedded in the generalized candidate prior (GCP), which is chosen for R to derive the PXCD. This algorithm is illustrated using multivariate regression (MVR) models and a simulation study shows that the performance of the GPX-RPMH algorithm is more efficient than that of other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the causality conditions and autocovariance calculations in periodic vector auto-regressions. A state-space representation is exploited to extract a simple, necessary and sufficient condition for periodic stationarity, under which the autocovariances can be expressed in a simple but tractable form. The proposed methods compute the autocovariances for distinct seasons separately, thereby facilitating efficient computation for models with a large period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a two-sided monitoring algorithm of changes in the exponential family. We adopt a Bayesian approach which uses a loss function and takes into account the run length of the process. It also extends the monitoring scheme proposed in [Harrison, P.J., Veerapen, P.P., 1994, A Bayesian decision approach to model monitoring and Cusums. Journal of Forecasting, 13, 29-36.] The algorithm is illustrated with several examples, which analyze the power of the monitor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary algorithms are heuristic stochastic search and optimization techniques with principles taken from natural genetics. They are procedures mimicking the evolution process of an initial population through genetic transformations. This paper is concerned with the problem of finding A-optimal incomplete block designs for multiple treatment comparisons represented by a matrix of contrasts. An evolutionary algorithm for searching optimal, or nearly optimal, incomplete block designs is described in detail. Various examples regarding the application of the algorithm to some well-known problems illustrate the good performance of the algorithm [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces practical methods of parameter and standard error estimation for adaptive robust regression where errors are assumed to be from a normal/independent family of distributions. In particular, generalized EM algorithms (GEM) are considered for the two cases of t and slash families of distributions. For the t family, one step method is proposed to estimate the degree of freedom parameter. Use of empirical information is suggested for standard error estimation. It is shown that this choice leads to standard errors that can be obtained as a by-product of the GEM algorithm. The proposed methods, as discussed, can be implemented in most available nonlinear regression programs. Details of implementation in SAS NLIN are given using two specific examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]