1. A Study Toward a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series.
- Author
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Ghysels, Eric
- Subjects
- *
MATHEMATICAL models of economics , *ECONOMIC models , *MATHEMATICAL variables , *REGRESSION analysis , *PROBABILITY theory , *TIME series analysis , *MATHEMATICAL statistics , *MATHEMATICAL models - Abstract
Several economists, notably Plosser (1978), Sargent (1978), and Wallis (1978) refuted the assumption that the seasonal component of endogenous variables in a dynamic economic model has almost all of its power restricted to what is termed seasonal frequency and its harmonics. In this article, a model with a closed-form solution is formulated to provide more insight into the arguments put forward by economists. It is concluded that univariate seasonal adjustment cannot be considered a harmless simplification of data without loss of information, neither for the interpretation of economic time series nor for regression analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1988
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