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Estimates the population size and rate of increase of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus. Importance of estimating the population size of bowhead whales; Description of the 1993 visual and acoustic census off Point Barrow, Alaska; Outline of the definitive versions of two statistical methods for estimating the population of bowhead whales.

Presents a commentary on the article "Inference From a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales," by Adrian E. Raftery and his colleagues, contained in the June 1995 issue of the "Journal of the American Statistical Association." Discussion of the problem of integrating information from different sources by using a deterministic simulation model; Arguments claiming that deterministic simulation model restricts the parameter to a subspace; Analysis of the bases of the Bayesian synthesis method; Applicability of the Bayesian method; Appreciation for Raftery's efforts for developing a Bayesian approach having valid statistical inference; Comparison of the features of statistical models and scientific models.

We consider the problem of inference about a quantity of interest given different sources of information linked by a deterministic population dynamics model. Our approach consists of translating all the available information into a joint premodel distribution on all the model inputs and outputs and then restricting this to the submanifold defined by the model to obtain the joint postmodel distribution. Marginalizing this yields inference, conditional on the model, about quantities of interest, which can be functions of model inputs, model outputs, or both. Samples from the postmodel distribution are obtained by importance sampling and Rubin's SIR algorithm. The framework includes as a special case the situation where the pre-model information about the outputs consists of measurements with error; this reduces to standard Bayesian inference. The results are in the form of a sample from the postmodel distribution and so can be examined using the full range of exploratory data analysis techniques. Methods for comparing competing population dynamics models are developed, based on a generalization of the Bayes factor idea. A key quantity used by the International Whaling Commission (IWC) in making decisions about bowhead whales, Balaena mysticelus, is the replacement yield, RY. Information about the species is of three main types: recent census information, historical catch records, and evidence about birth and death rates. These are combined using a special case of the Leslie matrix population dynamics model. Our method yields full inference about RY and also sheds light on other, sometimes controversial, questions of scientific interest. These ideas are also applicable to many simulation models in other areas of science and policy making. Software to implement these methods is available from StatLib. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a commentary on the article "Inference From a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales," by Adrian E. Raftery and his colleagues, contained in the June 1995 issue of the "Journal of the American Statistical Association." Analysis of the feasibility of using deterministic population dynamics models for wildlife management; Appreciation for the efforts of Raftery and his colleagues for developing a Bayesian approach having valid statistical inference; Evaluation of Raftery's model as a coherent and comprehensive methodology; Analysis of the effectiveness of the model for sensitivity analysis and for the choice of pre-model distributions; Arguments pertaining to the significance of the model in providing an advance over current methods for assessing the status of whale stocks.

Presents the authors' clarification in response to several commentaries on their article "Inference From a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales," contained in the June 1995 issue of the "Journal of the American Statistical Association." Information regarding the research background of the author's article; Clarification on several issues raised by commentators against the authors' statistical inference model; Information about various premodel distributions and probabilistic techniques used for formulating their model; Arguments claiming the effectiveness of their model in the field of wildlife research and population biology; Comparison of the Bayesian method with the authors' model.

Presents a commentary on the article "Inference From a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales," by Adrian E. Raftery and his colleagues, contained in the June 1995 issue of the "Journal of the American Statistical Association." Evaluation of the statistical inference model suggested by Raftery and his colleagues; Criticism of Raftery's approach claiming it a departure from the Bayesian paradigm; Discussion of the characteristics and limitations of the Bayesian method; Reference of the book "The Likelihood Principle," 2nd ed., by J.O. Berger and R.L. Wolpert.

Presents a commentary on the article "Inference From a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales," by Adrian E. Raftery and his colleagues, contained in the June 1995 issue of the "Journal of the American Statistical Association." Evaluation of Raftery's article as a stimulating combination of a methodological innovation and a substantive biological application; Analysis of the potential of Raftery's methods in the qualitative analysis of models; Discussion of the effectiveness of using the simplest model of selection in population genetics; Comparison of the efficacies of the sensitivity analysis and sampling methods; Discussion of the fuzzy parameter estimation.