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Recent field observations suggest that cloud-top precipitation generating cells (GCs) are ubiquitous in the warm-frontal and comma-head regions of midlatitude winter cyclones. The presence of fallstreaks emanating from the GCs and their persistence either to the surface or until merging into precipitation bands suggests that GCs are a critical component of the precipitation process in these cyclones. This paper is the second part of a three-part series that investigates the dynamics of GCs through very-high-resolution idealized Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations. This paper assesses the role of cloud-top instability paired with nighttime, daytime, or no radiative forcing on the development and maintenance (or lack) of GCs. Under initially unstable conditions at cloud top, GCs develop regardless of radiative forcing but only persist clearly with radiative forcing. Cloud-top destabilization due to longwave cooling leads to development of GCs even under initially neutral and stable conditions, providing a physical explanation for the observed ubiquity of GCs atop winter cyclones. GCs do not develop in initially stable simulations with no radiation. Decreased range in vertical velocity spectra under daytime radiative forcing is consistent with offset of the destabilizing influence of longwave cooling by shortwave heating.

Calculating unbiased microphysical process rates over mesoscale model grid volumes necessitates knowledge of the subgrid-scale (SGS) distribution of variables, typically represented as probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the prognostic variables. In the 2014 Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences paper by Kogan and Mechem, they employed large-eddy simulation of Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) trade cumulus to develop PDFs and joint PDFs of cloud water, rainwater, and droplet concentration. In this paper, the approach of Kogan and Mechem is extended to deeper, precipitating cumulus congestus clouds as represented by a simulation based on conditions from the TOGA COARE field campaign. The fidelity of various PDF approximations was assessed by evaluating errors in estimating autoconversion and accretion rates. The dependence of the PDF shape on grid-mean variables is much stronger in congestus clouds than in shallow cumulus. The PDFs obtained from the TOGA COARE simulations for the calculation of accretion rates may be applied to both shallow and congestus cumulus clouds. However, applying the TOGA COARE PDFs to calculate autoconversion rates introduces unacceptably large errors in shallow cumulus clouds, thus precluding the use of a “universal” PDF formulation for both cloud types.

The paper demonstrates that quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like oscillations can be simulated in an ensemble of dry GCM dynamical cores that are driven by a simple Held–Suarez temperature relaxation and low-level Rayleigh friction. The tropical stratospheric circulations of four dynamical cores, which are options in NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), are intercompared. These are the semi-Lagrangian (SLD) and Eulerian (EUL) spectral transform, finite-volume (FV), and spectral element (SE) dynamical cores. The paper investigates how the model design choices impact the wave generation, propagation, and dissipation mechanisms in the equatorial region. SLD, EUL, and SE develop spontaneous QBO-like oscillations in the upper equatorial stratosphere, whereas FV does not sustain the oscillation. Transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) analyses reveal that resolved waves are the dominant drivers of the QBOs. However, the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence is strongly counteracted by the TEM momentum budget residual, which represents the forcing by diffusion and thermal damping. Interestingly, a reversed Brewer–Dobson circulation accelerates the downward propagation of the SLD’s QBO, whereas the EUL’s and SE’s QBOs are slowed by a mean ascent. Waves are abundant in the SLD’s, EUL’s, and SE’s tropical atmosphere despite the absence of moist convection as a typical wave trigger. Dynamic instabilities are suggested as a wave-triggering mechanism in the troposphere and wave-dissipation process in the stratosphere. In particular, there are indications that the increased occurrences of strongly negative instability indicators in SLD, EUL, and SE are related to more vigorous wave activities and higher magnitudes of the resolved wave forcing in comparison to FV.

At subzero temperatures, cloud particles can contain both ice and liquid water fractions. Wet growth of precipitation particles occurs when supercooled cloud liquid is accreted faster than it can freeze on impact. With a flexible framework, the theory of wet growth of hail is extended to the case of the inhomogeneities of surface temperature and of liquid coverage over the surface of the particle. The theory treats the heat fluxes between its wet and dry parts and radial heat fluxes from the sponge layer through the liquid skin to the air. The theory parameterizes effects of nonsphericity of hail particles on their growth by accretion. Gradual internal freezing of any liquid soaking the hail or graupel particle’s interior during dry growth (“riming”) is treated as well. In this way, the microphysical recycling envisaged by Pflaum in a paper in 1980 is treated, with alternating episodes of wet and dry growth. The present paper, the first of a two-part paper, describes the scheme to treat wet growth, accounting for dependencies on condensate content, temperature, and particle size. Comparison with the laboratory experiments is presented.

This paper addresses the problem of the large discrepancies between ice crystal concentrations in clouds and the number of ice nuclei in nearby clear air reported in published papers. Such discrepancies cannot always be explained, even by taking into account both primary and secondary ice formation processes. A laboratory experiment was performed in a cylindrical column placed in a cold room at atmospheric pressure and temperature in the −12° to −14°C range. Supercooled droplets were nucleated in the column, in the absence of aerosol ice nuclei, by injecting ice crystals generated outside in a small syringe. A rapid increase in the ice crystal concentration was observed in the absence of any known ice multiplication. The ratio between the mean number of ice crystals in the column, after complete droplet vaporization, and the number of ice crystals introduced in the column was about 10:1. The presence of small ice crystals (introduced at the top of the column) in the unstable system (supercooled droplets) appears to trigger the transformation in the whole supercooled liquid cloud. A possible explanation could be that the rapidly evaporating droplets cool sufficiently to determine a homogeneous nucleation.

This paper examines the structure and variability of the moisture field in the tropical marine boundary layer (TMBL) as defined by Bragg scattering layers (BSLs) observed with S-band radar. Typically, four to five BSLs were present in the TMBL, including the transition layer at the top of the surface-based mixed layer. The transition-layer depth (~350 m) exhibited a weak diurnal cycle because of changes in the mixed-layer depth. BSLs and the “clear” layers between them each had a median thickness of about 350 m and a lifetime over the radar of 8.4 h, with about 25% having lifetimes longer than 20 h. More (fewer) BSLs were present when surface winds had a more southerly (northerly) component. Both BSLs and clear layers increased in depth with increasing rain rates, with the rainiest days producing layers that were about 100 m thicker than those on the driest days. The analyses imply that the relative humidity (RH) field in the TMBL exhibits layering on scales observable by radar. Satellite and wind profiler measurements show that the layered RH structure is related, at least in part, to detraining cloudy air. Based on analyses in this series of papers, a revised conceptual model of the TMBL is presented that emphasizes moisture variability and incorporates multiple moist and dry layers and a higher TMBL top. The model is supported by comparing BSL tops with satellite-derived cloud tops. This comparison suggests that the layered RH structure is related, in part, to cloud detrainment at preferred altitudes within the TMBL. The potential ramifications of this change in TMBL conceptualization on modeling of the TMBL are discussed.

A framework for an empirical parameterization (EP) of heterogeneous nucleation of ice crystals by multiple species of aerosol material in clouds was proposed in a 2008 paper by the authors. The present paper reports improvements to specification of a few of its empirical parameters. These include temperatures for onset of freezing, baseline surface areas of aerosol observed in field campaigns over Colorado, and new parameters for properties of black carbon, such as surface hydrophilicity and organic coatings. The EP’s third group of ice nucleus (IN) aerosols is redefined as that of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs), replacing insoluble organic aerosols. A fourth group of IN is introduced—namely, soluble organic aerosols.The new EP predicts IN concentrations that agree well with aircraft data from selected traverses of shallow wave clouds observed in five flights (1, 3, 4, 6, and 12) of the 2007 Ice in Clouds Experiment–Layer Clouds (ICE-L). Selected traverses were confined to temperatures between about −25° and −29°C in layer cloud without homogeneously nucleated ice from aloft. Some of the wave clouds were affected by carbonaceous aerosols from biomass burning and by dust from dry lakebeds and elsewhere. The EP predicts a trend between number concentrations of heterogeneously nucleated ice crystals and apparent black carbon among the five wave clouds, observed by aircraft in ICE-L. It is predicted in terms of IN activity of black carbon.The EP’s predictions are consistent with laboratory and field observations not used in its construction, for black carbon, dust, primary biological aerosols, and soluble organics. The EP’s prediction of biological ice nucleation is validated using coincident field observations of PBAP IN and PBAPs in Colorado.

Estimates of the global radiative forcing (RF) of line-shaped contrails and contrail cirrus exhibit a high level of uncertainty. In most cases, 1D radiative models have been used to determine the RF on a global scale. In this paper the effect of neglecting the 3D radiative effects of realistic contrails is quantified. Calculating the 3D effects of an idealized elliptical contrail as in the work of Gounou and Hogan with the 3D radiative transfer model MYSTIC (for “Monte Carlo code for the physically correct tracing of photons in cloudy atmospheres”) produced comparable results: as in Gounou and Hogan’s work the 3D effect (i.e., the difference in RF between a 3D calculation and a 1D approximation) on contrail RF was on the order of 10% in the longwave and shortwave. The net 3D effect, however, can be much larger, since the shortwave and longwave RF largely cancel during the day. For the investigation of the 3D effects of more realistic contrails, the microphysical input was provided by simulations of a 2D contrail-to-cirrus large-eddy simulation (LES) model. To capture some of the real variability in contrail properties, this paper examines two contrail evolutions from 20 min up to 6 h in an environment with either high or no vertical wind shear. This study reveals that the 3D effects show a high variability under realistic conditions since they depend strongly on the optical properties and the evolutionary state of the contrails. The differences are especially large for low elevations of the sun and contrails spreading in a sheared environment. Thus, a parameterization of the 3D effects in climate models would need to consider both geometry and microphysics of the contrail.

This paper focuses on two shortcomings of radiative transfer codes commonly used in climate models. The first aspect concerns the partitioning of solar versus infrared spectral energy. In most climate models, the solar spectrum comprises wavelengths less than 4 μm with all incoming solar energy deposited in that range. In reality, however, the solar spectrum extends into the infrared, with about 12 W m−2 in the 4–1000-μm range. In this paper a simple method is proposed wherein the longwave radiative transfer equation with solar energy input is solved. In comparison with the traditional method, the new solution results in more solar energy absorbed in the atmosphere and less at the surface.As mentioned in a recent intercomparison of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) and line-by-line (LBL) radiation models, most climate model radiation schemes neglect shortwave absorption by methane. However, the shortwave radiative forcing at the surface due to CH4 since the preindustrial period is estimated to exceed that due to CO2. The authors show that the CH4 shortwave effect can be included in a correlated k-distribution model, with the additional flux being accurately simulated in comparison with LBL models.Ten-year GCM simulations are presented, showing the detailed climatic effect of these changes in radiation treatment. It is demonstrated that the inclusion of solar flux in the infrared range produces a significant amount of extra warming in the atmosphere, specifically (i) in the tropical stratosphere where the warming can exceed 1 K day−1, and (ii) near the tropical tropopause layer. Additional GCM simulations show that inclusion of CH4 in the shortwave calculations also produces a warming of the atmosphere and a consequent reduction of the upward flux at the top of the atmosphere.

This is the second of two companion papers on modeling of mesoscale cellular structures and drizzle in marine stratocumulus. In the first, aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions and dynamical feedbacks were investigated to study the formation and evolution of open and closed cellular structures separately. In this paper, coexisting open and closed cells and how they influence one another are examined in a model domain of 180 × 60 × 1.5 km3. Simulations show that gradients in aerosol at the open–closed-cell boundary cause gradients in precipitation that generate a mesoscale circulation. The circulation promotes precipitation in the polluted closed cells but suppresses it in open cells by transporting water vapor to the closed-cell regime and carrying drier air and aerosol back to the open cells. The strength of this circulation depends on the contrast in precipitation under clean and polluted conditions at the boundary. Ship plumes emitted into clean, precipitating regions, simulated as a special case of a clean–polluted boundary, develop a similar circulation. Drizzle in the ship track is first suppressed by the increase in aerosol particles but later recovers and becomes even stronger because the local circulation enhances liquid water path owing to the convergence of water vapor from the region adjacent to the track. This circulation modifies the transport and mixing of ship plumes and enhances their dispersal. Finally, results show that whereas ship emissions do increase cloud albedo in regions of open cells, even the addition of very large aerosol concentrations cannot transform an open cellular structure to a closed one, for the case considered.

Time series of stratospheric climate variables are used to derive master equations in the discretized phase space spanned by three variables. The empirical master equation (EME) predicts the probability density function (PDF) in this phase space. The numerical properties of EMEs have been investigated in the first part of this paper using synthetic time series. In this part of the paper, the time series consist of normalized and deseasonalized daily and zonally averaged meteorologically relevant quantities obtained from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and observations. One EME reproduces the climatological features of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind including the probabilistic character of transitions between phases. Also, the Arctic stratosphere at 10 hPa is about 2 K warmer during the easterly phase of the QBO than during the westerly phase. Another EME including a time series of the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm hints that the relationship between the QBO and the temperature in the Arctic stratosphere is shifted toward warmer (colder) states by about 1 K during periods of high (low) solar activity. Finally, an EME is derived from time series of variables highly correlated with the northern annular mode (NAM). The EME shows that NAM anomalies in the middle stratosphere propagate into the lower stratosphere and then into the lower troposphere with a time scale of about two and four weeks, respectively. The influence of strong tropospheric NAM anomalies is confined to the lower stratosphere.

In this paper, a simplified moist general circulation model is developed and used to study changes in the atmospheric general circulation as the water vapor content of the atmosphere is altered. The key elements of the model physics are gray radiative transfer, in which water vapor and other constituents have no effect on radiative fluxes, a simple diffusive boundary layer with prognostic depth, and a mixed layer aquaplanet surface boundary condition. This GCM can be integrated stably without a convection parameterization, with large-scale condensation only, and this study focuses on this simplest version of the model. These simplifications provide a useful framework in which to focus on the interplay between latent heat release and large-scale dynamics. In this paper, the authors study the role of moisture in determining the tropospheric static stability and midlatitude eddy scale. In a companion paper, the effects of moisture on energy transports by baroclinic eddies are discussed. The authors vary a parameter in the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to control the amount of water in the atmosphere, and consider circulations ranging from the dry limit to 10 times a control value. The typical length scale of midlatitude eddies is found to be remarkably insensitive to the amount of moisture in the atmosphere in this model. The Rhines scale evaluated at the latitude of the maximum eddy kinetic energy fits the model results for the eddy scale well. Moist convection is important in determining the extratropical lapse rate, and the dry stability is significantly increased with increased moisture content.

This is the second of two observational papers examining drizzle in stratiform boundary layer clouds. Part I details the vertical and horizontal structure of cloud and drizzle parameters, including some bulk microphysical variables. In this paper, the focus is on the in situ size-resolved microphysical measurements, particularly of drizzle drops (r > 20 μm). Layer-averaged size distributions of drizzle drops within cloud are shown to be well represented using either a truncated exponential or a truncated lognormal size distribution. The size-resolved microphysical measurements are used to estimate autoconversion and accretion rates by integration of the stochastic collection equation (SCE). These rates are compared with a number of commonly used bulk parameterizations of warm rain formation. While parameterized accretion rates agree well with those derived from the SCE initialized with observed spectra, the autoconversion rates seriously disagree in some cases. These disagreements need to be addressed in order to bolster confidence in large-scale numerical model predictions of the aerosol second indirect effect. Cloud droplet coalescence removal rates and mass and number fall rate relationships used in the bulk microphysical schemes are also compared, revealing some potentially important discrepancies. The relative roles of autoconversion and accretion are estimated by examination of composite profiles from the 12 flights. Autoconversion, although necessary for the production of drizzle drops, is much less important than accretion throughout the lower 80% of the cloud layer in terms of the production of drizzle liquid water. The SCE calculations indicate that the autoconversion rate depends strongly upon the cloud droplet concentration Nd such that a doubling of Nd would lead to a reduction in autoconversion rate of between 2 and 4. Radar reflectivity–precipitation rate (Z–R) relationships suitable for radar use are derived and are shown to be significantly biased in some cases by the undersampling of large (r > 200 μm) drops with the 2D-C probe. A correction based upon the extrapolation to larger sizes using the exponential size distribution changes the Z–R relationship, leading to the conclusion that consideration should be given to sampling issues when examining higher moments of the drop size distribution in drizzling stratiform boundary layer clouds.

The multiple mass-flux approach introduced in a companion paper aims at parameterizing the surface-generated convection in the atmosphere. The original aspects of this model are as follows. A number of convective updrafts are released in the surface layer. They initially have distinct fractional area and thermodynamic properties, determined through surface layer similarity; that is, by assuming that the thermodynamic fluxes are constant throughout the surface layer. Each updraft ascent is diagnosed using an entraining plume model. In the case of cumulus convection, this comprehensive formulation provides consistent representations of the subcloud mixing, the cloud mixing, and the associated cloudiness. In the present paper, this model is evaluated in two shallow moist convection cases, using the one-dimensional modeling framework. In the continental convection case, the diurnal cloud growth and the related subcloud layer ventilation agree with large eddy simulations. In the oceanic convection cas...

This paper discusses a simulation obtained with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ‘‘SKYHI’’ troposphere‐stratosphere‐mesosphere general circulation model run at very high horizontal resolution (;60-km grid spacing) and without any parameterization of subgrid-scale gravity wave drag. The results are for a period around the austral winter solstice, and the emphasis is on the simulated Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter circulation. Comparisons are made with results obtained from lower horizontal resolution versions of the same model. The focus in this paper is on two particularly striking features of the high-resolution simulation: the extratropical surface winds and the winter polar middle atmospheric vortex. In the extratropical SH, the simulated surface westerlies and meridional surface pressure gradients in the high-resolution model are considerably stronger than observed and are stronger than those simulated at lower horizontal resolution. In the middle atmosphere, the high-resolution model produces a simulation of the zonal mean winter polar vortex that is considerably improved over that found with lower resolution models (although it is still significantly affected by the usual cold pole bias). Neither the improvement of the middle atmospheric polar vortex simulation nor the deterioration of the simulation of surface winds with increased model resolution shows a clear convergence, even at the ;60-km grid spacing employed here.

Efforts to measure the tropospheric hydroxyl radical concentration OH, the transient that plays a role in acid deposition formation and cleanses the atmosphere of many pollutants, began 20 years ago. In the past five years considerable progress has been made in local (in situ or point) measurement of OH (refer to other papers in this issue). New measurements put constraints on photochemical models that compute OH and other species. Reproducing observed OH with a model is more successful in some regimes than in others with calculated OH usually within 20% of measurements. This paper reviews OH photochemistry, comparisons of model-derived and measured OH in the continental boundary layer, and model calculation of OH in the marine boundary layer and free troposphere when high-frequency aircraft measurements of O3, and related trace gases are assimilated into a photochemical model. Factors affecting model calculation of OH—nonlinearities, imprecisions in kinetics, differences among model formulation-...

This paper presents experimental evidence showing the ubiquitous presence in the lower atmosphere (at least up to 25 km) of very strong (positive) temperature gradients within very thin layers. The presence of such “sheets” in the temperature field of the free atmosphere was frequently hypothesized in order to account for the aspect sensitivity of VHF radar measurements. Owing to their high vertical resolution (20 cm) and to the fast-response thermometers used, the in situ balloon measurements discussed in this paper constitute the first direct evidence of their true existence. Statistical study of the properties of the sheets results in the following typical values: thickness 3–20 m, temperature increase 0.2–0.8 K, gradient 30–100 K/km. The sheets are frequently observed in groups, associated with and taking part in regions of high static stability. Local measurements using two pairs of sensors one meter apart indicate that the sheets are not flat and horizontal. Sometimes, clear evidence of ong...

The spreading rates of convective thermals are linked to their net entrainment, and previous literature has suggested differences in spreading rates between moist and dry thermals. In this study, growth rates of idealized numerically simulated axisymmetric dry and moist convective thermals are directly compared. In an environment with dry-neutral stratification, the increase of thermal radius with height dR/dz is a larger by a factor of 1.7 for dry thermals relative to moist thermals. The fractional change in thermal volume ε is also greater for dry thermals within a distance of ~4 radii from the initial thermal height. Values of dR/dz are nearly constant with height for both moist and dry thermals consistent with classical theory based on dimensional analysis. The simulations are also consistent with theory relating impulse, circulation, and spreading rate for dry thermals proposed in previous papers and extended here to moist thermals, predicting they will spread less than dry thermals. Tests adding heating to dry thermals, either spread uniformly across the thermal volume or concentrated in the inner core, indicate that dR/dz and ε are smaller for moist thermals because latent heating is confined mostly to their cores. Additional axisymmetric moist simulations using modified lapse rates and large-eddy simulations support this analysis. Overall, these results indicate that slow spreading rates are a fundamental feature of moist thermals caused by latent heating that alters the spatial distribution of buoyancy within them relative to dry thermals.

This study revisits the axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) theory from D. K. Lilly’s unpublished manuscript (Lilly model) and compares it to axisymmetric TC simulations from a nonhydrostatic cloud model. Analytic solutions of the Lilly model are presented through simplifying assumptions. Sensitivity experiments varying the sea surface, boundary layer and tropopause temperatures, and the absolute angular momentum (M) at some outer radius in the Lilly model show that these variations influence the radial structure of the tangential wind profile V(r) at the boundary layer top. However, these parameter variations have little effect on the inner-core normalized tangential wind, V(r/rm)/Vm, where Vm is the maximum tangential wind at radius rm. The outflow temperature T∞ as a function of M (or saturation entropy s*) is found to be the only input that changes the normalized tangential wind radial structure in the Lilly model. In contrast with the original assumption of the Lilly model that T∞(s*) is determined by the environment, it is argued here that T∞(s*) is determined by the TC interior flow under the environmental constraint of the tropopause height. The present study shows that the inner-core tangential wind radial structure from the Lilly model generally agrees well with nonhydrostatic cloud model simulations except in the eyewall region where the Lilly model tends to underestimate the tangential winds due to its balanced-dynamics assumptions. The wind structure in temperature–radius coordinates from the Lilly model can largely reproduce the numerical simulation results. Though the Lilly model is based on a number of simplifying assumptions, this paper shows its utility in understanding steady-state TC intensity and structure.

Buoy observations from a 1999 Gulf of Mexico field program (GOM99) are used to investigate the relationships among friction velocityu*, wind speedU, and amount of swell present. AU–u*seaparameterization is developed for the case of pure wind sea (denoted byu*sea), which is linear inUover the range of available winds (2–16 m s−1). The curve shows no sign of an inflection point near 7–8 m s−1as suggested in a 2012 paper by Andreas et al. on the basis of a transition from smooth to rough flow. When observations containing more than minimal swell energy are included, a differentU–u*equation forU< 8 m s−1is found, which would intersect the pure wind-sea curve about 7–8 m s−1. These two relationships yield a bilinear curve similar to Andreas et al. with an apparent inflection near 7–8 m s−1. The absence of the inflection in the GOM99 experiment pure wind-sea curve and the similarity of the GOM99 swell-dominated low wind speed to Andreas et al.’s low wind speed relationship suggest that the inflection may be due to the effect of swell and not a flow transition. Swell heights in the range of only 25–50 cm may be sufficient to impact stress at low wind speeds.

The companion of this paper, Part I, discovered the characteristics of the rainfall progression in tropical-depression (TD)-type waves over the western North Pacific. In Part II, the large-scale controls on the convective rainfall progression have been investigated using the ERA-Interim data and the TRMM 3B42 precipitation-rate data during June–October from 1998 to 2013 through budgets of moist static energy (MSE) and moisture. A buildup of column-integrated MSE occurs in advance of deep convection, and an export of MSE occurs following deep convection, which is consistent with the MSE recharge–discharge paradigm. The MSE recharge–discharge is controlled by horizontal processes, whereby horizontal moisture advection causes net MSE import prior to deep convection. Such moistening by horizontal advection creates a moist midtroposphere, which helps destabilize the atmospheric column, leading to the development of deep convective rainfall. Following the heaviest rainfall, negative horizontal moisture advection dries the troposphere, inhibiting convection. Such moistening and drying processes explain why deep convection can develop without preceding shallow convection. The advection of moisture anomalies by the mean horizontal flow controls the tropospheric moistening and drying processes. As the TD-type waves propagate northwestward in coincidence with the northwestward environmental flow, the moisture, or convective rainfall, is phase locked to the waves. The critical role of the MSE import by horizontal advection in modulating the rainfall progression is supported by the anomalous gross moist stability (AGMS), where the lowest AGMS corresponds to the quickest increase in the precipitation rate prior to the rainfall maximum.

The intermittency of atmospheric turbulence plays an important role in the understanding of particle dispersal in the atmospheric boundary layer and in the statistical simulation of high-frequency wind speed in various applications. There are two kinds of intermittency, namely, the magnitude intermittency (MI) related to non-Gaussianity and the less studied clusterization intermittency (CI) related to long-term correlation. In this paper, we use a 20 Hz ultrasonic dataset lasting for 1 month to study CI of turbulent velocity fluctuations at different scales. Basing on the analysis of return-time distribution of telegraphic approximation series, we propose to use the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution to measure CI. Observations of this parameter show that contrary to MI, CI tends to weaken as the scale increases. Besides, significant diurnal variations, showing that CI tends to strengthen during the daytime (under unstable conditions) and weaken during the nighttime (under stable conditions), are found at different observation heights. In the convective boundary layer, the mixed-layer similarity is found to scale the CI exponent better than the Monin–Obukhov similarity. At night, CI is found to vary less with height in the regime with large mean wind speeds than in the regime with small mean wind speeds, according to the hockey-stick theory.

Atmospheric flows are often decomposed into balanced (low frequency) and unbalanced (high frequency) components. For a dry atmosphere, it is known that a single mode, the potential vorticity (PV), is enough to describe the balanced flow and determine its evolution. For a moist atmosphere with phase changes, on the other hand, balanced–unbalanced decompositions involve additional complexity. In this paper, we illustrate that additional balanced modes, beyond PV, arise from the moisture. To support and motivate the discussion, we consider balanced–unbalanced decompositions arising from a simplified Boussinesq numerical simulation and a hemispheric-sized channel simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. One important role of the balanced moist modes is in the inversion principle that is used to recover the moist balanced flow: rather than traditional PV inversion that involves only the PV variable, it is PV-and-M inversion that is needed, involving M variables that describe the moist balanced modes. In examples of PV-and-M inversion, we show that one can decompose all significant atmospheric variables, including total water or water vapor, into balanced (vortical mode) and unbalanced (inertio-gravity wave) components. The moist inversion, thus, extends the traditional dry PV inversion to allow for moisture and phase changes. In addition, we illustrate that the moist balanced modes are essentially conserved quantities of the flow, and they act qualitatively as additional PV-like modes of the system that track balanced moisture.

This paper develops a method to estimate the shallow-convective mass flux M at the top of the subcloud layer as a residual of the subcloud-layer mass budget. The ability of the mass-budget estimate to reproduce the mass flux diagnosed directly from the cloud-core area fraction and vertical velocity is tested using real-case large-eddy simulations over the tropical Atlantic. We find that M reproduces well the magnitude, diurnal cycle, and day-to-day variability of the core-sampled mass flux, with an average root-mean-square error of less than 30% of the mean. The average M across the four winter days analyzed is 12 mm s−1, where the entrainment rate E contributes on average 14 mm s−1 and the large-scale vertical velocity W contributes −2 mm s−1. We find that day-to-day variations in M are mostly explained by variations in W, whereas E is very similar among the different days analyzed. Instead E exhibits a pronounced diurnal cycle, with a minimum of about 10 mm s−1 around sunset and a maximum of about 18 mm s−1 around sunrise. Application of the method to dropsonde data from an airborne field campaign in August 2016 yields the first measurements of the mass flux derived from the mass budget, and supports the result that the variability in M is mostly due to the variability in W. Our analyses thus suggest a strong coupling between the day-to-day variability in shallow convective mixing (as measured by M) and the large-scale circulation (as measured by W). Application of the method to the EUREC4A field campaign will help evaluate this coupling, and assess its implications for cloud-base cloudiness.

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a descending pattern of winds in the stratosphere that vanishes near the top of the tropical tropopause layer, even though the vertically propagating waves that drive the QBO are thought to originate in the troposphere several kilometers below. The region where there is low QBO power despite sufficient vertically propagating wave activity to drive a QBO is known as the buffer zone. Classical one-dimensional models of the QBO are ill suited to represent buffer zone dynamics because they enforce the attenuation of the QBO via a zero-wind lower boundary condition. The formation of the buffer zone is investigated by analyzing momentum budgets in the reanalyses MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim. The buffer zone must be formed by weak wave-driven acceleration and/or cancellation of the wave-driven acceleration. This paper shows that in MERRA-2 weak wave-driven acceleration is insufficient to form the buffer zone, so cancellation of the wave-driven acceleration must play a role. The cancellation results from damping of angular momentum anomalies, primarily due to horizontal mean and horizontal eddy momentum flux divergence, with secondary contributions from the Coriolis torque and vertical mean momentum flux divergence. The importance of the damping terms highlights the role of the buffer zone as the mediator of angular momentum exchange between the QBO domain and the far field. Some far-field angular momentum anomalies reach the solid Earth, leading to the well-documented lagged correlation between the QBO and the length of day.

To mark the publication of the special collection in honor of Robert (Bob) A. Duce in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, we have summarized his most important contributions to the subject of biogeochemical coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. Here we have divided these contributions into four themes—deposition from the atmosphere and its effects on the oceans, volatile elements emitted from the oceans, sea surface biology and aerosol formation, and marine aerosols and clouds. It is our intent that this summary along with the papers in this special collection provide an overview of the enormous contributions that Bob Duce has made to the subject during his distinguished scientific career.

It is widely believed that tropical cyclones are an intrinsically moist phenomenon, requiring evaporation and latent heat release in cumulus convection. Recent numerical modeling by Mrowiec et al., however, challenged this conventional wisdom by finding the formation of axisymmetric dry tropical cyclones in dry radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE). This paper addresses ensuing questions about the stability of dry tropical cyclones in 3D, the moist–dry vortex transition, and whether existing theories for intensity, size, and structure apply to dry cyclones. A convection-permitting model is used to simulate rotating 3D RCE, with surface wetness (0–1) and surface temperature (240–300 K) smoothly varying between dry and moist states. Tropical cyclones spontaneously form and persist for tens of days in both moist and dry/cold states, as well as part of the relatively moist/warm intermediate parameter space. As the surface is dried or cooled, cyclones weaken, both in absolute terms and relative to their potential intensities. Dry and semidry cyclones have smaller outer radii but similar-sized or larger convective centers compared to moist cyclones, consistent with existing structural theory. Strikingly, spontaneous cyclogenesis fails to occur at moderately low surface wetness values and intermediate surface temperatures of 250–270 K. Simulations with time-varying surface moisture and sea surface temperatures indicate this range of parameter space is a barrier to spontaneous genesis but not cyclone existence. Dry and semidry tropical cyclones in rotating RCE provide a compelling model system to further our understanding of real moist tropical cyclones.

For mesoscale variational data assimilation with high-resolution observations, there has been an issue concerning the choice of momentum control variables and related covariance modeling. This paper addresses the theoretical aspect of this issue. First, relationships between background error covariance functions for differently chosen momentum control variables are derived, and different choices of momentum control variables are proven to be theoretically equivalent in the sense that they lead to the same optimally analyzed incremental wind field in the limit of infinitely high spatial resolution provided their error covariance functions satisfy the derived relationships. It is then shown that when the velocity potential χ and streamfunction ψ are used as momentum control variables with their background error autocovariance functions modeled by single-Gaussian functions, the derived velocity autocovariance functions contain significant negative sidelobes. These negative sidelobes can represent background wind error structures associated with baroclinic waves on the synoptic scale but become unrepresentative on the mesoscale. To reduce or remove these negative sidelobes for mesoscale variational data assimilation, Gaussian functions are used with two types of modifications to model the velocity covariance functions in consistency with the assumed homogeneity and isotropy in variational data assimilation. In this case, the random (χ, ψ) background error fields have no classically valid homogeneous and isotropic covariance functions, but generalized (χ, ψ) covariance functions can be derived from the modified velocity covariance functions for choosing (χ, ψ) as momentum control variables. Mathematical properties of generalized covariance functions are explored with physical interpretations. Their important implications are discussed for mesoscale data assimilation.

Temperature changes in the Arctic lower stratosphere on both short- and long-term time scales are critical for changing the magnitude of ozone losses in the Arctic vortex. In this paper, an approximate month-to-month temperature change equation is constructed and extended to a new form for decade-to-decade changes. Then we provide a verification of these equations and show an example of an application for partitioning between the dynamical and radiative contributions to the Arctic lower-stratospheric temperature decadal changes, as well as the trends, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data during the period of 1980–99. At 100 hPa, the month-to-month Arctic temperature increment is a small term compared to the dynamical heating and diabatic heating, which are largely canceling terms with maximum magnitudes in November–April and October–March, respectively. However, it is not the case for their decadal changes and the decadal change of the Arctic current-month temperature compared to those of the regressed dynamical heating and radiative heating, where the current-month decadal changes and the corresponding trends are approached except in March and a rough agreement exists between these trends and those reported in other studies. The dynamical plus diabatic heating term and the temperature increment, as well as their decadal changes, are roughly balanced during the annual oscillation. However, some departures exist in both cases because of the large deviations or uncertainties of relevant terms and also probably due to the quasigeostrophic approximation and the eddy heat flux approximation of the dynamical heating, and a restricted condition of the eddy heat flux approximation is given at the end.

Influence of pollution on dynamics of deep convection continues to be a controversial topic. Arguably, only carefully designed numerical simulations can clearly separate the impact of aerosols from the effects of meteorological factors that affect moist convection. This paper argues that such a separation is virtually impossible using observations because of the insufficient accuracy of atmospheric measurements and the fundamental nature of the interaction between deep convection and its environment. To support this conjecture, results from numerical simulations are presented that apply modeling methodology previously developed by the author. The simulations consider small modifications, difficult to detect in observations, of the initial sounding, surface fluxes, and large-scale forcing tendencies. All these represent variations of meteorological conditions that affect deep convective dynamics independently of aerosols. The setup follows the case of daytime convective development over land based on observations during the Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (LBA) field project in Amazonia. The simulated observable macroscopic changes of convection, such as the surface precipitation and upper-tropospheric cloudiness, are similar to or larger than those resulting from changes of cloud condensation nuclei from pristine to polluted conditions studied previously using the same modeling case. Observations from Phase III of the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) are also used to support the argument concerning the impact of the large-scale forcing. The simulations suggest that the aerosol impacts on dynamics of deep convection cannot be isolated from meteorological effects, at least for the daytime development of unorganized deep convection considered in this study.

The hypothesis of “condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics” proposes that a previously unstudied force associated with condensation is the driver of atmospheric motions, explaining phenomena like cyclones, monsoon circulations, and even the Hadley circulation. This hypothesis caused significant interest in the academic community, but it also produced substantial controversy, receiving numerous criticisms from experts who have serious doubts about the existence or importance of this force. In this paper, we show that the alleged new force is based on an unbalanced internal force within the atmospheric gas. Therefore, the dynamic effects attributed to this force are not physically possible, pointing to the violation of Newton’s third law. We also reiterate that the role of the water cycle in the standard theory is essential to explain major atmospheric circulations but without physical inconsistencies.

The contributions of gravity waves to the momentum budget in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) is examined using simulation data from the Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) whole-atmosphere model. Regardless of the relatively coarse model resolution, gravity waves appear in the MLT region. The resolved gravity waves largely contribute to the MLT momentum budget. A pair of positive and negative Eliassen–Palm flux divergences of the resolved gravity waves are observed in the summer MLT region, suggesting that the resolved gravity waves are likely in situ generated in the MLT region. In the summer MLT region, the mean zonal winds have a strong vertical shear that is likely formed by parameterized gravity wave forcing. The Richardson number sometimes becomes less than a quarter in the strong-shear region, suggesting that the resolved gravity waves are generated by shear instability. In addition, shear instability occurs in the low (middle) latitudes of the summer (winter) MLT region and is associated with diurnal (semidiurnal) migrating tides. Resolved gravity waves are also radiated from these regions. In Part I of this paper, it was shown that Rossby waves in the MLT region are also radiated by the barotropic and/or baroclinic instability formed by parameterized gravity wave forcing. These results strongly suggest that the forcing by gravity waves originating from the lower atmosphere causes the barotropic/baroclinic and shear instabilities in the mesosphere that, respectively, generate Rossby and gravity waves and suggest that the in situ generation and dissipation of these waves play important roles in the momentum budget of the MLT region.

Since the pioneering paper by Nastrom and Gage on aircraft-derived power spectra, significant progress has been made in understanding the wavenumber distribution of energy in Earth’s atmosphere and its implications for the intrinsic limits of weather forecasting. Improvements in tropical cyclone intensity predictions have lagged those of global weather forecasting, and limited intrinsic predictability may be partially responsible. In this study, we construct power spectra from aircraft data of over 1200 missions carried out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC) Hurricane Hunters. Each mission is parsed into distinct flight legs, and legs meeting a specified set of criteria are used for spectral analysis. Here, we produce power spectra composites for each category of the Saffir–Simpson scale, revealing a systematic relationship between spectral slope and storm intensity. Specifically, as storm intensity increases, we find that 1) spectral slope becomes steeper across scales from 10 to 160 km and 2) the transition zone where spectral slope begins to steepen shifts downscale.

Elevated heating of the atmosphere by large plateaus has been argued to influence regional climate in Asia and other regions, but the mechanisms that cause the troposphere to equilibrate at warmer temperatures over elevated terrain are not well understood. This paper quantitatively describes the physics that controls temperatures over elevated terrain in radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE). First, a cloud-system-resolving model (CSRM) is used to simulate RCE states over surfaces with various elevations. Then, a theory for the influence of surface elevation on temperatures in RCE is presented. Together with offline radiative transfer calculations, this theory is used to quantitatively attribute the magnitude of the elevated heating effect to top-of-atmosphere radiative flux changes caused by decreases in longwave absorption, shortwave scattering, and the moist lapse rate that occur as surface pressure drops. Sensitivity functions obtained through these offline calculations suggest that elevated heating is weaker in warmer climates, and additional CSRM simulations support this hypothesis. Under certain circumstances, even the sign of the elevated heating effect can change to produce cooler temperatures at a given pressure level as the surface is lifted in RCE.

In Part I of this two-part paper, a formulation was developed to treat fragmentation in ice–ice collisions. In the present Part II, the formulation is implemented in two microphysically advanced cloud models simulating a convective line observed over the U.S. high plains. One model is 2D with a spectral bin microphysics scheme. The other has a hybrid bin–two-moment bulk microphysics scheme in 3D. The case consists of cumulonimbus cells with cold cloud bases (near 0°C) in a dry troposphere. Only with breakup included in the simulation are aircraft observations of particles with maximum dimensions >0.2 mm in the storm adequately predicted by both models. In fact, breakup in ice–ice collisions is by far the most prolific process of ice initiation in the simulated clouds (95%–98% of all nonhomogeneous ice), apart from homogeneous freezing of droplets. Inclusion of breakup in the cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations increased, by between about one and two orders of magnitude, the average concentration of ice between about 0° and −30°C. Most of the breakup is due to collisions of snow with graupel/hail. It is broadly consistent with the theoretical result in Part I about an explosive tendency for ice multiplication. Breakup in collisions of snow (crystals >~1 mm and aggregates) with denser graupel/hail was the main pathway for collisional breakup and initiated about 60%–90% of all ice particles not from homogeneous freezing, in the simulations by both models. Breakup is predicted to reduce accumulated surface precipitation in the simulated storm by about 20%–40%.

Arctic climate change in winter is tightly linked to changes in the strength of surface temperature inversions, which occur frequently in the present climate as Arctic air masses form during polar night. Recent work proposed that, in a warmer climate, increasing low-cloud optical thickness of maritime air advected over high-latitude landmasses during polar night could suppress the formation of Arctic air masses, amplifying winter warming over continents and sea ice. But this mechanism was based on single-column simulations that could not assess the role of fractional cloud cover change. This paper presents two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulations that support the single-column model results: low-cloud optical thickness and duration increase strongly with initial air temperature, slowing the surface cooling rate as the climate is warmed. The cloud-resolving model cools less at the surface than the single-column model, and the sensitivity of its cooling to warmer initial temperatures is also higher, because it produces cloudier atmospheres with stronger lower-tropospheric mixing and distributes cloud-top cooling over a deeper atmospheric layer with larger heat capacity. Resolving larger-scale cloud turbulence has the greatest impact on the microphysics schemes that best represent general observed features of mixed-phase clouds, increasing their sensitivity to climate warming. These findings support the hypothesis that increasing insulation of the high-latitude land surface by low clouds in a warmer world could act as a strong positive feedback in future climate change and suggest studying Arctic air formation in a three-dimensional climate model.

For decades, enhancement of ice concentrations above those of active ice nucleus aerosols was observed in deep clouds with tops too warm for homogeneous freezing, indicating fragmentation of ice (multiplication). Several possible mechanisms of fragmentation have been suggested from laboratory studies, and one of these involves fragmentation in ice–ice collisions. In this two-part paper, the role of breakup in ice–ice collisions in a convective storm consisting of many cloud types is assessed with a modeling approach. The colliding ice particles can belong to any microphysical species, such as crystals, snow, graupel, hail, or freezing drops. In the present study (Part I), a full physical formulation of initiation of cloud ice by mechanical breakup in collisions involving snow, graupel, and/or hail is developed based on an energy conservation principle. Theoretically uncertain parameters are estimated by simulating laboratory and field experiments already published in the literature. Here, collision kinetic energy (CKE) is the fundamental governing variable of fragmentation in any collision, because it measures the energy available for breakage by work done to create the new surface of fragments. The developed formulation is general in the sense that it includes all the types of fragmentation observed in previous published studies and encompasses collisions of either snow or crystals with graupel/hail, collisions among only graupel/hail, and collisions among only snow/crystals. It explains the observed dependencies on CKE, size, temperature, and degree of prior riming.

The solar zenith angle controls local insolation and also affects the partitioning of insolation into planetary reflection, atmospheric absorption, and surface absorption. Because of this role of the solar zenith angle in modulating albedo, Cronin and others have proposed that insolation weighting should be used to determine the solar zenith angle when a single-angle calculation is used to represent a spatial or temporal average of solar fluxes. A comment by Li claims instead that daytime weighting is optimal, and that insolation weighting leads to serious errors, but this claim is based on a severe misinterpretation of the method proposed by Cronin. With any method of zenith angle averaging, both the solar constant and the zenith angle are free parameters, but their product—the mean insolation—must be held constant. Li fails to hold insolation constant when comparing different methods of zenith angle averaging and, thus, obtains large but spurious “errors.” This paper attempts to clarify the method proposed by Cronin and tabulates the insolation-weighted solar zenith angle and solar constant that should be used as a function of latitude for annual-average radiative transfer on a planet with Earth’s obliquity and a circular orbit.

In this paper, the authors suggest a dynamical mechanism involved in the revival of the summer monsoon after breaks. In this context, the authors carry out a diagnostic analysis using the datasets from National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 for the period 1979–2007 to identify a robust mechanism that typifies breaks and subsequent revival of monsoon. The authors find during the peak of significant breaks an anomalous southward shift of the subtropical westerly jet stream, which is invariably accompanied by an anomalous northward shift of a stronger-than-normal easterly jet. These major changes during a break facilitate an instability mechanism, which apparently leads to formation of a synoptic disturbance. Formation of such a disturbance is critical to the subsequent revival of the summer monsoon in 61% of the observed break-to-active revivals.Computations of energetics and correlation analysis carried out suggest an increase in the eddy kinetic energy at the expense of the mean kinetic energy during the breaks, in agreement with the formation of the synoptic disturbance. This demonstrates that barotropic instability in the presence of a monsoon basic flow is the primary physical mechanism that controls the revival of the summer monsoon subsequent to the break events.

In idealized numerical simulations of supercell-like “pseudostorms” generated by a heat source and sink in a vertically sheared environment, a tornado-like vortex develops if air possessing large circulation about a vertical axis at the lowest model levels can be converged. This is most likely to happen if the circulation-rich air possesses only weak negative buoyancy (the circulation-rich air has a history of descent, so typically possesses at least some negative buoyancy) and is subjected to an upward-directed vertical perturbation pressure gradient force. This paper further explores the sensitivity of the development of near-surface vertical vorticity to the horizontal position of the heat sink. Shifting the position of the heat sink by only 2–3 km can significantly influence vortex intensity by altering both the baroclinic generation of circulation and the buoyancy of circulation-rich air. Many of the changes in the pseudostorms that arise from shifting the position of the heat sink would be difficult to anticipate. The sensitivity of the pseudostorms to heat sink position probably at least partly explains the well-known sensitivity of near-surface vertical vorticity development to the microphysics parameterizations in more realistic supercell storm simulations, as well as some of the failures of actual supercells to produce tornadoes in seemingly favorable environments.

Studies have suggested that the persistence in the meridional vacillation of the midlatitude jet (i.e., annular mode time scale) in comprehensive climate models is related to the model biases in climatological jet latitude, with important implications for projections of future climates and midlatitude weather events. Through the use of the recently developed finite-amplitude wave activity formalism and feedback quantifying techniques, this paper has quantified the role of barotropic and baroclinic eddy feedbacks in annular mode time scales using an idealized dry atmospheric model. The eddy–mean flow interaction that characterizes the persistent anomalous state of the midlatitude jet depends on processes associated with the lower-tropospheric source of vertically propagating Rossby waves, baroclinic mechanisms, and processes associated with upper-tropospheric wave propagation and breaking, barotropic mechanisms. A variety of climate change–like thermal forcings are used to generate a range of meridional shifts in the midlatitude eddy-driven jet. The idealized model shows a reduction in annular mode time scale associated with an increase in jet latitude, similar to comprehensive climate models. This decrease in time scale can be attributed to a similar decrease in the strength of the barotropic eddy feedback, which, in the positive phase of the annular mode, is characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV) mixing on the equatorward flank of the climatological jet. The decrease in subtropical PV mixing is, in turn, associated with a stronger subtropical jet as the eddy-driven jet is more distant from the subtropics. These results highlight the importance of subtropical eddy–mean flow interactions for the persistence of an eddy-driven jet.

The number of ice fragments generated by breakup of large graupel in collisions with small graupel fluctuates randomly owing to fluctuations in relative sizes and densities of colliding graupel particles and the stochastic nature of fracture propagation. This paper investigates the impact of the stochasticity of breakup on ice multiplication. When both the rate of generation of primary ice and the initial number concentration of ice crystals are low, the system most likely loses all the initial ice and graupel owing to a lack of sustaining sources. Even randomness does not change this mean evolution of the system in its phase space. However, a fluctuation of ice breakup number gives a small but finite chance that substantial ice crystal fragments are generated by breakup of large graupel. That, in turn, generates more large graupel. This multiplicative process due to fluctuations potentially leads to a small but finite chance of explosive growth of ice number. A rigorous stochastic analysis demonstrates this point quantitatively. The randomness considered here belongs to a particular category called “multiplicative” noise, because the noise amplitude is proportional to a given physical state. To contrast the multiplicative-noise nature of ice breakup with a standard “additive” noise process, fluctuation of the primary ice generation rate is also considered as an example of the latter. These processes are examined by taking the Fokker–Planck equation that explicitly describes the evolution of the probability distribution with time. As an important conclusion, stability in the phase space of the cloud microphysical system of breakup in ice–ice collisions is substantially altered by the multiplicative noise.

This paper addresses the validity of the gradient wind balance approximation during the intensification phase of a tropical cyclone in Ooyama’s three-layer model. For this purpose, the sensitivity to various model modifications is examined, given by the inclusion of (i) unbalanced dynamics in the free atmosphere, (ii) unbalanced dynamics in the slab boundary layer, (iii) a height-parameterized boundary layer model, and (iv) a rigid lid. The most rapid intensification occurs when the model employs the unbalanced slab boundary layer, while the simulation with the balanced boundary layer reveals the slowest intensification. The simulation with the realistic height-parameterized boundary layer model exhibits an intensification rate that lies in between. Intensification is induced by a convective ring in all experiments, but a distinct contraction of the radius of maximum gradient wind only takes place with unbalanced boundary layer dynamics. In all experiments the rigid lid and the balance approximation for the free atmosphere have no crucial impact on intensification, and a linear stability analysis cannot explain the found sensitivity to intensification. Most likely the nonlinear momentum advection term plays an important role in the boundary layer. It is found on the basis of a diagnostic radial mass flux equation that the source term for latent heat provides the largest contribution to intensification and contraction. Furthermore, it turns out that the position of the convective ring inside or outside of the radius of maximum gradient wind (RMGW) is of vital importance for intensification and most likely explains the large impact of boundary layer imbalance.

The paper demonstrates that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can be simulated in an ensemble of dry dynamical cores that miss the typical SSW forcing mechanisms like moist processes, land–sea contrasts, or topography. These idealized general circulation model (GCM) simulations are driven by a simple Held–Suarez–Williamson (HSW) temperature relaxation and low-level Rayleigh friction. In particular, the four dynamical cores of NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), are used, which are the semi-Lagrangian (SLD) and Eulerian (EUL) spectral-transform models and the finite-volume (FV) and the spectral element (SE) models. Three research themes are discussed. First, it is shown that SSW events in such idealized simulations have very realistic flow characteristics that are analyzed via the SLD model. A single vortex-split event is highlighted that is driven by wavenumber-1 and -2 wave–mean flow interactions. Second, the SLD simulations are compared to the EUL, FV, and SE dynamical cores, which sheds light on the impact of the numerical schemes on the circulation. Only SLD produces major SSWs, while others only exhibit minor stratospheric warmings. These differences are caused by SLD’s more vigorous wave–mean flow interactions in addition to a warm pole bias, which leads to relatively weak polar jets in SLD. Third, it is shown that tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)–like oscillations and SSWs can coexist in such idealized HSW simulations. They are present in the SLD dynamical core that is used to analyze the QBO–SSW interactions via a transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) analysis. The TEM results provide support for the Holton–Tan effect.

Over coastal mountain ranges of the Asian monsoon region, heavy orographic rainfall is frequently associated with low precipitation-top heights (PTHs). This leads to conspicuous underestimation of rainfall using microwave radiometer algorithms, which conventionally assume that heavy rainfall is associated with high PTHs. Although topographically forced upward motion is important for rainfall occurrence, it does not fully constrain precipitation profiles in this region. This paper focuses on the thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere that determine PTHs in tropical coastal mountains of Asia (Western Ghats, Arakan Yoma, Bilauktaung, Cardamom, Annam Range, and the Philippines). PTHs of heavy orographic rainfall generally decrease with enhanced low- and midlevel relative humidity, especially during the summer monsoon. In contrast, PTHs over the Annam Range of the Indochina Peninsula increase with enhanced low-level and midlevel relative humidity during the transition from boreal summer to winter monsoon, demonstrating that convection depth is not simply a function of humidity. Instead, PTHs of heavy orographic rainfall decreased with increasing low-level stability for all monsoon regions considered in this study, as well as the Annam Range during the transition from boreal summer to winter monsoon. Therefore, low-level static stability, which inhibits cloud growth and promotes cloud detrainment, appears to be the most important parameter in determining PTHs of heavy rainfall in the Asian monsoon region.

The relationship between n = 0 mixed Rossby–gravity waves (MRGs) and eastward inertio-gravity waves (EIGs) from Matsuno’s shallow-water theory on an equatorial beta plane is studied using statistics of satellite brightness temperature Tb and dynamical fields from ERA-Interim data. Unlike other observed convectively coupled equatorial waves, which have spectral signals well separated into eastward and westward modes, there is a continuum of MRG–EIG power standing above the background that peaks near wavenumber 0. This continuum is also present in the signals of dry stratospheric MRGs. While hundreds of papers have been written on MRGs, very little work on EIGs has appeared in the literature to date. The authors attribute this to the fact that EIG circulations are much weaker than those of MRGs for a given amount of divergence, making them more difficult to observe even though they strongly modulate convection. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and cross-spectral analysis of 2–6-day-filtered Tb isolate zonally standing modes of synoptic-scale convection originally identified by Wallace in 1971. These display antisymmetric Tb signals about the equator that propagate poleward with a period of around 4 days, along with westward-propagating MRG-like circulations that move through the Tb patterns. Further analysis here and in Part II shows that these signatures are not artifacts of the EOF approach but result from a mixture of MRG or EIG modes occurring either in isolation or at the same time.

The processes responsible for double-peak latitudinal structures in the time-averaged tropical lower-stratospheric upwelling, centered near 70 hPa and 20°N/S, previously noted in ERA-Interim and other reanalysis and model datasets, are considered. It is demonstrated that the structure of the wave force resolved by ERA-Interim consistently balances the angular momentum transport associated with the double peak. Analysis of the corresponding structures in diabatic heating rates from ERA-Interim indicates that the peaks arise predominantly from the meridional structure in ozone concentrations and the associated absorption of both shortwave and longwave radiation. Additional smaller contributions arise from local absorption of longwave radiation emitted from the relatively warm layers above and below, as well as from cloud-related radiative effects and nonradiative diabatic heating. The temperature at 70 hPa is slightly higher near 20°N/S than at the equator, opposite of what would be expected if the latitudinal structure in radiative heating were associated with local relaxation. It is proposed on the basis of this analysis that the primary cause of the peaks in upwelling is the externally imposed (i.e., nonrelaxational) part of the radiative heating field. The dynamical plausibility of this hypothesis is investigated in a companion paper.

This paper presents high-resolution numerical solutions of a nonlinear zonally symmetric slab model of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) boundary layer. The boundary layer zonal and meridional flows are forced by a specified pressure field, which can also be interpreted as a specified geostrophically balanced zonal wind field ug(y). One narrow on-equatorial peak in boundary layer pumping is produced when the forcing is easterly geostrophic flow along the equator and two narrow peaks in boundary layer pumping are produced on opposite sides of the equator (a double ITCZ) when the forcing is westerly geostrophic flow along the equator. In the case when easterlies are surrounding a westerly wind burst, once again a double ITCZ is produced, but the ITCZs have significantly more intense boundary layer pumping than the case of only westerly geostrophic flow. A comparison of the numerical solutions to those of classical Ekman theory suggests that the meridional advection term υ(∂υ/∂y) plays a vital role in strengthening and narrowing boundary layer pumping regions while weakening and broadening boundary layer suction regions.

This paper assesses the influence of radiative forcing and latent heating on the development and maintenance of cloud-top generating cells (GCs) in high-resolution idealized Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations with initial conditions representative of the vertical structure of a cyclone observed during the Profiling of Winter Storms campaign. Simulated GC kinematics, structure, and ice mass are shown to compare well quantitatively with Wyoming Cloud Radar, cloud probe, and other observations. Sensitivity to radiative forcing was assessed in simulations with longwave-only (nighttime), longwave-and-shortwave (daytime), and no-radiation parameterizations. The domain-averaged longwave cooling rate exceeded 0.50 K h−1 near cloud top, with maxima greater than 2.00 K h−1 atop GCs. Shortwave warming was weaker by comparison, with domain-averaged values of 0.10–0.20 K h−1 and maxima of 0.50 K h−1 atop GCs. The stabilizing influence of cloud-top shortwave warming was evident in the daytime simulation’s vertical velocity spectrum, with 1% of the updrafts in the 6.0–8.0-km layer exceeding 1.20 m s−1, compared to 1.80 m s−1 for the nighttime simulation. GCs regenerate in simulations with radiative forcing after the initial instability is released but do not persist when radiation is not parameterized, demonstrating that radiative forcing is critical to GC maintenance under the thermodynamic and vertical wind shear conditions in this cyclone. GCs are characterized by high ice supersaturation (RHice > 150%) and latent heating rates frequently in excess of 2.00 K h−1 collocated with vertical velocity maxima. Ice precipitation mixing ratio maxima of greater than 0.15 g kg−1 were common within GCs in the daytime and nighttime simulations.

Rossby wave packets (RWPs) have been associated with increased atmospheric predictability but also with the growth and propagation of forecast uncertainty. To address the important question of under which conditions RWPs imply high and low predictability, a potential vorticity–potential temperature (PV–θ) framework is introduced to diagnose RWP dynamics. Finite-amplitude RWPs along the midlatitude waveguide are considered and are represented by the synoptic-scale, wavelike undulations of the tropopause. The evolution of RWPs is examined by the amplitude evolution of the individual troughs and ridges. Troughs and ridges are identified as PV anomalies on θ levels intersecting the midlatitude tropopause. By partitioning the PV-tendency equation, individual contributions to the amplitude evolution are identified. A novel aspect is that the important role of the divergent flow and the diabatic PV modification is quantified explicitly. Arguably, prominent upper-tropospheric divergent flow is associated to a large extent with latent-heat release below and can thus be considered as an indirect diabatic impact. A case study of an RWP evolution over 7 days illustrates the PV–θ diagnostic. In general, baroclinic coupling and, important, the divergent flow make contributions to the amplitude evolution of individual troughs and ridges that are comparable in magnitude to the wave’s group propagation. Diabatic PV modification makes a subordinate contribution to the evolution. The relative importance of the different processes exhibits considerable variability between individual troughs and ridges. A discussion of the results in light of recent studies on forecast errors and predictability concludes the paper.