Search

It is typically interpreted that more moisture in the atmosphere leads to more intense rains. This notion may be supported, for example, by taking a scatterplot between rain and column precipitable water. The present paper suggests, however, that the main consequence of intense rains with more moisture in the atmosphere is that there is a higher chance of occurrence rather than an increase in the expected magnitude. This tendency equally applies to any rains above 1 mm (6 h)−1 to a lesser extent. The result is derived from an analysis of 33 local rain gauge station data and a shared sounding over Friuli Venezia Giulia, northeast Italy. Significance Statement: Moisture is the source of clouds. Clouds, in turn, are source of rain. So we may expect that more moisture in the atmosphere causes more intense rains. We may further speculate that with more moisture in the atmosphere as a consequence of the global warning, we must face more catastrophic rain events and floods. However, this paper, by analyzing data over Friuli Venezia Giulia, northeast Italy, suggests otherwise: more moisture indeed increases frequencies of intense rains, but not their magnitudes as much. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation changes in a warming climate have been examined with a focus on either mean precipitation or precipitation extremes, but changes in the full probability distribution of precipitation have not been well studied. This paper develops a methodology for the quantile-conditional column moisture budget of the atmosphere for the full probability distribution of precipitation. Analysis is performed on idealized aquaplanet model simulations under 3-K uniform SST warming across different horizontal resolutions. Because the covariance of specific humidity and horizontal mass convergence is much reduced when conditioned onto a given precipitation percentile range, their conditional averages yield a clear separation between the moisture (thermodynamic) and circulation (dynamic) effects of vertical moisture transport on precipitation. The thermodynamic response to idealized climate warming can be understood as a generalized "wet get wetter" mechanism, in which the heaviest precipitation of the probability distribution is enhanced most from increased gross moisture stratification, at a rate controlled by the change in lower-tropospheric moisture rather than column moisture. The dynamic effect, in contrast, can be interpreted by shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulations such as the Hadley cell circulation or midlatitude storm tracks. Furthermore, horizontal moisture advection, albeit of secondary role, is important for regional precipitation change. Although similar mechanisms are at play for changes in both mean precipitation and precipitation extremes, the thermodynamic contributions of moisture transport to increases in high percentiles of precipitation tend to be more widespread across a wide range of latitudes than increases in the mean, especially in the subtropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies operators inspired by the fluctuation-dissipation theorem that consider the seasonality (nonstationarity) of the climate system under conditions of limited sample size relevant to application of the method to observational records. The approach is used to predict the steady-state response of an atmospheric general circulation model to localized temperature perturbations. A seasonal operator nominally requires a much larger data sample than a stationary operator; the authors study some strategies to overcome this. First, two methods for approximating the seasonality of the system are examined. Second, an alternative 'transpose approach' to the standard dimension reduction is considered that is more efficient and accurate for small sample sizes and additionally enables the use of a kernel, which provides a convenient way to incorporate prior physical understanding into the operator. All operators show considerable skill in predicting seasonal responses for a variety of variables (temperature, winds, rainfall, and cloud cover) and better skill in predicting the annual-mean ones. A comparison of these predictions to ones done on the same system with temporally fixed boundary conditions shows unexpectedly that skill is, if anything, improved by the presence of a seasonal cycle. The authors suggest that the extra complexity due to a seasonal system is outweighed by the added information due to the seasonal forcing and the effect of seasonality in smoothing out prediction errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines spiral rainbands in a numerical simulation of Hurricane Bill (2009). This paper, the first part of the study, evaluates the structures of spiral rainbands and compares them to previous observations. Four types of spiral rainbands are identified: principal, secondary, distant, and inner rainbands. Principal rainbands tend to be stationary relative to the storm center, while secondary rainbands are more transient and move around the storm center. Both principal and secondary rainbands are tilted radially outward with height and have many of the commonly observed kinematic features, such as overturning secondary circulation and enhanced tangential velocity on their radially outward sides. Principal rainbands are bounded by very dry air on their radially outward sides. Distant rainbands are radially inward-tilting convective features that have dense cold pools near the surface. Inner rainbands are made of shallow convection that appears to have originated from near the eyewall. Differences in the structures of spiral rainbands between observations and the Hurricane Bill simulation are noted. The second part of the study investigates how inner rainbands propagate and makes comparison with previously proposed hypotheses such as vortex Rossby waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the atmospheric response to a midlatitude oceanic front, this paper uses a quasigeostrophic (QG) model with moist processes. A well-known, three-level QG model on the sphere has been modified to include such processes in an aquaplanet setting. Its response is analyzed in terms of the upper-level atmospheric jet for sea surface temperature (SST) fronts of different profiles and located at different latitudes. When the SST front is sufficiently strong, it tends to anchor the mean atmospheric jet, suggesting that the jet's spatial location and pattern are mainly affected by the latitude of the SST front. Changes in the jet's pattern are studied, focusing on surface sensible heat flux and on moisture effects through latent heat release. It is found that latent heat release due to moist processes is modified when the SST front is changed, and this is responsible for the meridional displacement of the jet. Moreover, both latent heat release and surface sensible heat flux contribute to the jet's strengthening. These results highlight the role of SST fronts and moist processes in affecting the characteristics of the midlatitude jet stream and of its associated storm track, particularly their positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) located to the east of the Tibetan Plateau in southern China plays an important role in summertime convective initiation over north China. This study adopts a novel perspective and uses hindcast experiments in order to investigate the role of moisture in LLJ and associated heavy rainfall formation, employing a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the sensitivity experiments, an increase of humidity in the inflow region leads to a weaker LLJ but stronger diurnal wind oscillations. The weaker LLJ is due to a decreased lower-tropospheric east-west pressure gradient resulting from a low pressure anomaly over southeastern China induced by deep convection and related condensational heating. On the other hand, the stronger diurnal variation of the LLJ originates from stronger day-and-night thermal differences over the sloping terrain, which is related to drier conditions over the mountain range. Moreover, the increased humidity and decreased LLJ counteract one another to impact precipitation in the outflow region. The change of precipitation is mainly determined by the altered moisture flux divergence. If the increase in humidity dominates, then the moisture flux convergence is enhanced and favors more precipitation over north China. Otherwise, if the decreased LLJ dominates, then the moisture flux convergence is reduced, which constrains precipitation. It is highlighted that the moist diabatic and dynamic processes are intimately coupled, and that a correct simulation of moisture flux convergence is vital for AGCMs to reproduce the LLJ-related precipitation, particularly the nocturnal precipitation peak, which is a deficiency in many current models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Periods of low convective activity over southern Africa during the peak rainy season from December to February are known to be due to the northeastward displacement of the tropical temperate trough (TTT) systems from the landmass. In this study, using Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data, the authors show that the displacement of the TTT systems during long periods of low convective activity has origins in the Northern Hemisphere. Using standardized area-averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) daily anomalies over southern Africa, long periods of low convective activity are defined as periods of positive OLR anomalies lasting consecutively for 5 or more days with a standard deviation of 1 or more. An eddy streamfunction anomaly composite of the periods of low convective activity shows an upper-level anomalous wave originating in the Northern Hemisphere and extending to southern Africa from the eastern Pacific and displacing the tropical-extratropical cloud bands from the southern African landmass into the southwestern Indian Ocean. The wave train is also seen to generate an anticyclonic anomaly over southern Africa, resulting in suppressed convective activity. Understanding the causes of the long periods of low convective activity will help in improving their predictability and also the predictability of seasonal rainfall over southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) process in an idealized cloud-resolving simulation of a tropical cyclone. In particular, the unbalanced boundary layer response to asymmetric inflow forcing induced by outer rainbands (ORBs) is examined in order to understand the mechanisms driving the sustained convection outside the primary eyewall during the early phase of SEF. The enhancement of convection in the SEF region follows the formation and inward contraction of an ORB. The azimuthal distribution of the enhanced convection is highly asymmetric but regular, generally along a half circle starting from the downwind portion of the ORB. It turns out that the descending radial inflow in the middle and downwind portions of the ORB initiates/maintains a strong inflow in the boundary layer. The latter is able to penetrate into the inner-core region, sharpens the gradient of radial velocity, and reinforces convergence. Consequently, warm and moist air is continuously lifted up at the leading edge of the strong inflow to support deep convection. Moreover, the inflow from the ORB creates strong supergradient winds that are ejected outward downwind, thereby enhancing convergence and convection on the other side of the storm. The results provide new insight into the key processes responsible for convection enhancement during the early phase of SEF in three dimensions and suggest the limitations of axisymmetric studies. There are also implications regarding the impact of the asymmetric boundary layer flow under a translating storm on SEF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanisms associated with the intraseasonal variability of precipitation over South America during the spring season are investigated with emphasis on the influence of a quasi-stationary anomalous circulation over the southeastern South Pacific Ocean (SEP). A spectral analysis performed to the bandpass-filtered time series of daily precipitation anomalies for the La Plata Basin (LPB) and the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) regions revealed several statistically relevant peaks corresponding to periods of roughly 23 days and 14–16 days—with the lower (higher) frequency peaks more prevalent for the SACZ (LPB). The large-scale circulation patterns preconditioning precipitation variability over both regions were explored by means of a regression analysis performed on the daily 500-hPa geopotential anomaly field provided by the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset. The most prominent feature of the regression fields is the presence of a quasi-stationary anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southeastern South Pacific Ocean associated with positive rainfall anomalies over the LPB (SACZ) and, emanating from that high (low), an external Rossby wave propagating northeastward toward the South American continent. The synoptic-scale activity, quantified in terms of a frontal activity index, showed a strong influence on precipitation over the LPB and to a lesser extent over the SACZ. Moreover, the frontal activity is actually modulated by the anomalous high circulation over the SEP region. The behavior of this anomalous circulation may be supported by a positive feedback mechanism that can enhance the response of the high anomaly itself, which in turns reinforces the Rossby wave train propagating toward the South American continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warm rain parameterization has been developed by solving the stochastic collection equation with the use of turbulent collision kernels. The resulting parameterizations for the processes of autoconversion, accretion, and self-collection are functions of the turbulent intensity of the flow and are applicable to turbulent cloud conditions ranging in dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy from 100 to 1500 cm2 s-3. Turbulence has a significant effect on the acceleration of the drop size distribution and can reduce the time to the formation of raindrops. When the stochastic collection equation is solved with the gravitational collision kernel for an initial distribution with a liquid water content of 1 g m-3 and 240 drops cm-3 with a mean volume radius of 10 μm, the amount of mass that is transferred to drop sizes greater than 40 μm in radius after 20 min is 0.9% of the total mass. When the stochastic collection equation is solved with a turbulent collision kernel for collector drops in the range of 10–30 μm with a dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy equal to 100 cm2 s-3, this percentage increases to 21.4. Increasing the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy to 500, 1000, and 1500 cm2 s-3 further increases the percentage of mass transferred to radii greater than 40 μm after 20 min to 41%, 52%, and 58%, respectively, showing a substantial acceleration of the drop size distribution when a turbulent collision kernel that includes both turbulent and gravitational forcing replaces the purely gravitational kernel. The warm rain microphysics parameterization has been developed from direct numerical simulation (DNS) results that are characterized by Reynolds numbers that are orders of magnitude smaller than those of atmospheric turbulence. The uncertainty involved with the extrapolation of the results to high Reynolds numbers, the use of gravitational collision efficiencies, and the range of the droplets for which the effect of turbulence has been included should all be considered when interpreting results based on these new microphysics parameterizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model is used to simulate two convective events observed during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (TRMM LBA) experiment in Brazil. These two events epitomized the type of convective systems that formed in two distinctly different environments observed during TRMM LBA. The 26 January 1999 squall line formed within a sheared low-level easterly wind flow. On 23 February 1999, convection developed in weak low-level westerly flow, resulting in weakly organized, less intense convection. Initial simulations captured the basic organization and intensity of each event. However, improvements to the model resolution and microphysics produced better simulations as compared to observations. More realistic diurnal convective growth was achieved by lowering the horizontal grid spacing from 1000 to 250 m. This produced a gradual transition from shallow to deep convection that occurred over a span of hours as opposed to an abrupt appearance of deep convection. Eliminating the dry growth of graupel in the bulk microphysics scheme effectively removed the unrealistic presence of high-density ice in the simulated anvil. However, comparisons with radar reflectivity data using contoured-frequency-with-altitude diagrams (CFADs) revealed that the resulting snow contents were too large. The excessive snow was reduced primarily by lowering the collection efficiency of cloud water by snow and resulted in further agreement with the radar observations. The transfer of cloud-sized particles to precipitation-sized ice appears to be too efficient in the original scheme. Overall, these changes to the microphysics lead to more realistic precipitation ice contents in the model. However, artifacts due to the inability of the one-moment scheme to allow for size sorting, such as excessive low-level rain evaporation, were also found but could not be resolved without moving to a two-moment or bin scheme. As a result, model rainfall histograms underestimated the occurrence of high rain rates compared to radar-based histograms. Nevertheless, the improved precipitation-sized ice signature in the model simulations should lead to better latent heating retrievals as a result of both better convective–stratiform separation within the model as well as more physically realistic hydrometeor structures for radiance calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study combines high-resolution mesoscale model simulations and comprehensive airborne Doppler radar observations to identify kinematic structures influencing the production and mesoscale distribution of precipitation and microphysical processes during a period of heavy prefrontal orographic rainfall over the Cascade Mountains of Oregon on 13–14 December 2001 during the second phase of the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE-2) field program. Airborne-based radar detection of precipitation from well upstream of the Cascades to the lee allows a depiction of terrain-induced wave motions in unprecedented detail. Two distinct scales of mesoscale wave–like air motions are identified: 1) a vertically propagating mountain wave anchored to the Cascade crest associated with strong midlevel zonal (i.e., cross barrier) flow, and 2) smaller-scale (<20-km horizontal wavelength) undulations over the windward foothills triggered by interaction of the low-level along-barrier flow with multiple ridge–valley corrugations oriented perpendicular to the Cascade crest. These undulations modulate cloud liquid water (CLW) and snow mixing ratios in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), with modeled structures comparing favorably to radar-documented zones of enhanced reflectivity and CLW measured by the NOAA P3 aircraft. Errors in the model representation of a low-level shear layer and the vertically propagating mountain waves are analyzed through a variety of sensitivity tests, which indicated that the mountain wave’s amplitude and placement are extremely sensitive to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization being employed. The effects of 1) using unsmoothed versus smoothed terrain and 2) the removal of upstream coastal terrain on the flow and precipitation over the Cascades are evaluated through a series of sensitivity experiments. Inclusion of unsmoothed terrain resulted in net surface precipitation increases of ∼4%–14% over the windward slopes relative to the smoothed-terrain simulation. Small-scale waves (<20-km horizontal wavelength) over the windward slopes significantly impact the horizontal pattern of precipitation and hence quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric moisture and temperature profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit on the NASA Aqua mission, in combination with the precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), are employed to study the vertical moist thermodynamic structure and spatial–temporal evolution of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The AIRS data indicate that, in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the temperature anomaly exhibits a trimodal vertical structure: a warm (cold) anomaly in the free troposphere (800–250 hPa) and a cold (warm) anomaly near the tropopause (above 250 hPa) and in the lower troposphere (below 800 hPa) associated with enhanced (suppressed) convection. The AIRS moisture anomaly also shows markedly different vertical structures as a function of longitude and the strength of convection anomaly. Most significantly, the AIRS data demonstrate that, over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the enhanced (suppressed) convection is generally preceded in both time and space by a low-level warm and moist (cold and dry) anomaly and followed by a low-level cold and dry (warm and moist) anomaly. The MJO vertical moist thermodynamic structure from the AIRS data is in general agreement, particularly in the free troposphere, with previous studies based on global reanalysis and limited radiosonde data. However, major differences in the lower-troposphere moisture and temperature structure between the AIRS observations and the NCEP reanalysis are found over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, where there are very few conventional data to constrain the reanalysis. Specifically, the anomalous lower-troposphere temperature structure is much less well defined in NCEP than in AIRS for the western Pacific, and even has the opposite sign anomalies compared to AIRS relative to the wet/dry phase of the MJO in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, there are well-defined eastward-tilting variations of moisture with height in AIRS over the central and eastern Pacific that are less well defined, and in some cases absent, in NCEP. In addition, the correlation between MJO-related midtropospheric water vapor anomalies and TRMM precipitation anomalies is considerably more robust in AIRS than in NCEP, especially over the Indian Ocean. Overall, the AIRS results are quite consistent with those predicted by the frictional Kelvin–Rossby wave/conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) theory for the MJO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of the collisional breakup of raindrops are investigated using the Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM). The parameterizations, which are combined in the new breakup scheme, are those of Low and List, Beard and Ochs, as well as Brown. A sensitivity study reveals strong effects of collisional breakup on the precipitation formation in mixed-phase deep convective clouds for strong as well as for weak precipitation events. Collisional breakup reduces the number of large raindrops, increases the number of small raindrops, and, as a consequence, decreases surface rain rates and considerably reduces the speed of rain formation. In addition, it was found that including breakup can lead to a more intense triggering of secondary convective cells. But a statistical comparison with observed raindrop size distributions shows that the parameterizations might systematically overestimate collisional breakup. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]