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Recent field observations suggest that cloud-top precipitation generating cells (GCs) are ubiquitous in the warm-frontal and comma-head regions of midlatitude winter cyclones. The presence of fallstreaks emanating from the GCs and their persistence either to the surface or until merging into precipitation bands suggests that GCs are a critical component of the precipitation process in these cyclones. This paper is the second part of a three-part series that investigates the dynamics of GCs through very-high-resolution idealized Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations. This paper assesses the role of cloud-top instability paired with nighttime, daytime, or no radiative forcing on the development and maintenance (or lack) of GCs. Under initially unstable conditions at cloud top, GCs develop regardless of radiative forcing but only persist clearly with radiative forcing. Cloud-top destabilization due to longwave cooling leads to development of GCs even under initially neutral and stable conditions, providing a physical explanation for the observed ubiquity of GCs atop winter cyclones. GCs do not develop in initially stable simulations with no radiation. Decreased range in vertical velocity spectra under daytime radiative forcing is consistent with offset of the destabilizing influence of longwave cooling by shortwave heating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The four-parameter modified gamma distribution (MGD) is the most general mathematically convenient model for size distributions of particle types ranging from aerosols and cloud droplets or ice particles to liquid and frozen precipitation. The common three-parameter gamma distribution, the exponential distribution (e.g., Marshall--Palmer), and power-law distribution (e.g., Junge) are all special cases. Depending on the context, the particle ''size'' used in a given formulation may be the actual geometric diameter, the volume- or area-equivalent spherical diameter, the actual or equivalent radius, the projected or surface area, or the mass. For microphysical and radiative transfer calculations, it is often necessary to convert from one size representation to another, especially when comparing or utilizing distribution parameters obtained from a variety of sources. Furthermore, when the mass scales with Db, with b < 3, as is typical for snow and ice and other particles having a quasi-fractal structure, an exponential or gamma distribution expressed in terms of one size parameter becomes an MGD when expressed in terms of another. The MGD model is therefore more fundamentally relevant to size distributions of nonspherical particles than is often appreciated. The central purpose of this paper is to serve as a concise single-source reference for the mathematical properties of, and conversions between, atmospheric particle size distributions that can expressed as MGDs, including exponential and gamma distributions as special cases. For illustrative purposes, snow particle size distributions published by Sekhon and Srivastava, Braham, and Field et al. are converted to a common representation and directly compared for identical snow water content, allowing large differences in their properties to be discerned and quantified in a way that is not as easily achieved without such conversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the influence of radiative forcing and latent heating on the development and maintenance of cloud-top generating cells (GCs) in high-resolution idealized Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations with initial conditions representative of the vertical structure of a cyclone observed during the Profiling of Winter Storms campaign. Simulated GC kinematics, structure, and ice mass are shown to compare well quantitatively with Wyoming Cloud Radar, cloud probe, and other observations. Sensitivity to radiative forcing was assessed in simulations with longwave-only (nighttime), longwave-and-shortwave (daytime), and no-radiation parameterizations. The domain-averaged longwave cooling rate exceeded 0.50 K h−1 near cloud top, with maxima greater than 2.00 K h−1 atop GCs. Shortwave warming was weaker by comparison, with domain-averaged values of 0.10-0.20 K h−1 and maxima of 0.50 K h−1 atop GCs. The stabilizing influence of cloud-top shortwave warming was evident in the daytime simulation's vertical velocity spectrum, with 1% of the updrafts in the 6.0-8.0-km layer exceeding 1.20 m s−1, compared to 1.80 m s−1 for the nighttime simulation. GCs regenerate in simulations with radiative forcing after the initial instability is released but do not persist when radiation is not parameterized, demonstrating that radiative forcing is critical to GC maintenance under the thermodynamic and vertical wind shear conditions in this cyclone. GCs are characterized by high ice supersaturation (RHice > 150%) and latent heating rates frequently in excess of 2.00 K h−1 collocated with vertical velocity maxima. Ice precipitation mixing ratio maxima of greater than 0.15 g kg−1 were common within GCs in the daytime and nighttime simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diurnal variations of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) and vertical motions have been related to the development of summer precipitation individually, but their underlying connection and consequences for the nocturnal and afternoon precipitation peaks are less discussed. This paper examines how together they help explain the spatial pattern of the frequency of summer convective precipitation over the Great Plains. A one-layer linearized boundary layer model is used to reproduce the diurnal cycle of the GPLLJ. Its periodic rising and sinking motions compare favorably with those of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climatology. Its development of rising motion is also consistent with the enhanced occurrence of nocturnal convective precipitation over the central and eastern Great Plains (90°-100°W) and afternoon maximum over the western Great Plains (100°-105°W). The diurnal phasing of the vertical motions can be captured by the model only if the diurnal oscillation of the jet is forced by both near surface geopotential gradients and friction with observed diurnal variability. The diurnal variation of the vertical velocity (or boundary layer convergence and divergence) is explained by local vorticity balance; that is, following the diurnal oscillation of the jet, the zonal gradient of the meridional wind oscillates and, thus, relative vorticity and its tendency. The slowing down of the jet after midnight decreases the anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity and consequently gives a positive (negative) vorticity tendency to the east (west) of the jet core; anomalous rising (sinking) motions occur to balance these positive (negative) vorticity tendencies. The pattern reverses when the jet is relatively weak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an extension of a linear theory of orographic precipitation (OP). In the original theory, cloud water is produced by forced lifting over mountains, moderated by airflow dynamics. Controlled by a time delay τc, the cloud water converts into hydrometeors, which drift and fall out as precipitation. This drift is controlled by another time delay τf. The new extension proposed here introduces vertical layers, limited to two in this study. In this way, a more realistic vertical structure is permitted. Wind and stability may change with height and different microphysical properties may be assigned to the layers. For instance, a long fallout delay in the upper layer may represent snow that, after falling through a melting layer, turns into rain that has a short delay in the lower model layer. The sensitivity to microphysical delay and wind speed has been addressed for various interface heights separating the two layers. This layered approach allows adjustment of the water vapor influx and truncation of dry descent above a crest line, which, in the context of the existing linear theory, otherwise could cancel cloud water in lower layers. The introduction of layers requires more information in the vertical, but this may be derived, to some extent, from surface information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several hypotheses have been put forward for the mechanisms of generation of surface circulation associated with tropical cyclones. This paper examines high-resolution simulations of Tropical Storm Gert (2005), which formed in the Gulf of Mexico during NASA’s Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment, to investigate the development of low-level circulation and its relationship to the precipitation evolution. Two simulations are examined: one that better matches available observations but underpredicts the storm’s minimum sea level pressure and a second one that somewhat overintensifies the storm but provides a set of simulations that encapsulates the overall genesis and development characteristics of the observed storm. The roles of convective and stratiform precipitation processes within the mesoscale precipitation systems that formed Gert are discussed. During 21–25 July, two episodes of convective system development occurred. In each, precipitation system evolution was characterized by intense and deep convective upward motions followed by increasing stratiform-type vertical motions (upper-level ascent, low-level descent). Potential vorticity (PV) in convective regions was strongest at low levels while stratiform-region PV was strongest at midlevels, suggesting that convective processes acted to spin up lower levels prior to the spinup of middle levels by stratiform processes. Intense vortical hot towers (VHTs) were prominent features of the low-level cyclonic vorticity field. The most prominent PV anomalies persisted more than 6 h and were often associated with localized minima in the sea level pressure field. A gradual aggregation of the cyclonic PV occurred as existing VHTs near the center continually merged with new VHTs, gradually increasing the mean vorticity near the center. Nearly concurrently with this VHT-induced development, stratiform precipitation processes strongly enhanced the mean inflow and convergence at middle levels, rapidly increasing the midlevel vorticity. However, the stratiform vertical motion profile is such that while it increases midlevel vorticity, it decreases vorticity near the surface as a result of low-level divergence. Consequently, the results suggest that while stratiform precipitation regions may significantly increase cyclonic circulation at midlevels, convective vortex enhancement at low to midlevels is likely necessary for genesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During boreal summer, both the monsoon trough and the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) receive intense climatological precipitation. At various time scales, EIO sea surface temperature (SST) and/or precipitation variations interact with rainfall along the trough. For instance, during July–August in strong Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode (IODZM) years, EIO experiences below-normal rainfall while regions along the monsoon trough receive above-normal rainfall. A lack of spatial coherency between SST and precipitation variations is noted in both regions. This paper posits the hypothesis that interaction between equatorial waves and moist physics is important in determining precipitation anomalies over these regions and in setting up the teleconnection. The hypothesis is tested using a linear baroclinic model (LBM). IODZM-related SST anomalies derived from multicentury integrations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled model (GFDL CM2.1) are used to force the LBM. Consistent with observations and CM2.1 composites of strong IODZM events, steady-state LBM solutions simulate zonally oriented negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over the EIO (along the monsoon trough). To identify the processes simulated in the LBM, moisture and moist static energy budgets are examined. Over both regions, analyses reveal that moisture advection contributes the most to the LBM budget, with advection of climatological moisture by the anomalous wind being the principal factor. Specifically, in response to cold SST anomalies in the EIO, moist stability due to surface fluxes increases, giving rise to below-normal rainfall. These conditions produce anomalous anticyclonic circulation as a Rossby wave response in the lower troposphere. Over the central-eastern EIO, this anomalous circulation advects climatological air of lower moisture content from the subtropics. In addition, advection of anomalous moisture by both climatological and anomalous wind results in anomalous dry conditions over the entire EIO. In contrast, anomalous divergent circulations that emanate from the EIO advect climatological air of higher moisture content from the equatorial region, amplifying rainfall along the monsoon trough. Consequently, the two regions are connected by a thermally driven overturning meridional circulation. Budget diagnostics performed with CM2.1 composites and the ECMWF interim reanalysis for observed IODZM events support the hypothesis. The results here imply that in coupled models, realistic representation of the basic state and details of the moist processes are necessary for successful monsoon prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an extension of a linear theory of orographic precipitation (OP). In the original theory, cloud water is produced by forced lifting over mountains, moderated by airflow dynamics. Controlled by a time delay τc, the cloud water converts into hydrometeors, which drift and fall out as precipitation. This drift is controlled by another time delay τf. The new extension proposed here introduces vertical layers, limited to two in this study. In this way, a more realistic vertical structure is permitted. Wind and stability may change with height and different microphysical properties may be assigned to the layers. For instance, a long fallout delay in the upper layer may represent snow that, after falling through a melting layer, turns into rain that has a short delay in the lower model layer. The sensitivity to microphysical delay and wind speed has been addressed for various interface heights separating the two layers. This layered approach allows adjustment of the water vapor influx and truncation of dry descent above a crest line, which, in the context of the existing linear theory, otherwise could cancel cloud water in lower layers. The introduction of layers requires more information in the vertical, but this may be derived, to some extent, from surface information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing idealized convection-permitting simulations of radiative–convective equilibrium in long-channel geometry. Across a wide range of climates, the thermodynamic contribution to changes in instantaneous precipitation extremes follows near-surface moisture, and the dynamic contribution is positive and small but is sensitive to domain size. The shapes of mass flux profiles associated with precipitation extremes are determined by conditional sampling that favors strong vertical motion at levels where the vertical saturation specific humidity gradient is large, and mass flux profiles collapse to a common shape across climates when plotted in a moisture-based vertical coordinate. The collapse, robust to changes in microphysics and turbulence schemes, implies a thermodynamic contribution that scales with near-surface moisture despite substantial convergence aloft and allows the dynamic contribution to be defined by the pressure velocity at a single level. Linking the simplified dynamic mode to vertical velocities from entraining plume models reveals that the small dynamic mode in channel simulations (≲ 2% K−1) is caused by opposing height dependences of vertical velocity and density, together with the buffering influence of cloud-base buoyancies that vary little with surface temperature. These results reinforce an emerging picture of the response of extreme tropical precipitation rates to warming: a thermodynamic mode of about 7% K−1 dominates, with a minor contribution from changes in dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cloud-resolving simulations are used to evaluate the importance of topography to the diurnal cycle (DC) of precipitation (DCP) over Luzon, Philippines, and surrounding ocean during the July–August 2016 boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) event. Composites of surface precipitation for each 30-min time increment during the day are made to determine the mean DCP. The mean DCP is computed separately for suppressed and active BSISO conditions and compared across three simulations with varying topography—flat, true, and doubled topographic height. The magnitude of the topographic height helps to dictate the timing, intensity, and location of diurnal precipitation over and near Luzon. For example, the mean DCP in the true topography run peaks 1.5 h later, is broader by 1 h, and has a 9% larger amplitude during active conditions relative to suppressed conditions. By contrast, the flat run mean DCP is earlier and narrower by 0.5 h with a 5% smaller amplitude during active conditions versus suppressed conditions. Within the suppressed or active BSISO conditions, the mean DCP peak and amplitude increase as the topographic height increases. The presence of elevated topography focuses precipitation over the coastal mountains during suppressed conditions, while dictating which side of the domain (i.e., east Luzon and the Philippine Sea vs west Luzon and the South China Sea) more precipitation occurs in during active conditions. These topographic-induced changes are discussed in terms of mechanical and thermodynamic forcing differences between the two large-scale BSISO regimes for the three runs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical precipitation–moisture relationship, characterized by rapid increases in precipitation for modest increases in moisture, is conceptually recast in a framework relevant to plume buoyancy and conditional instability in the tropics. The working hypothesis in this framework links the rapid onset of precipitation to integrated buoyancy in the lower troposphere. An analytical expression that relates the buoyancy of an entraining plume to the vertical thermodynamic structure is derived. The natural variables in this framework are saturation and subsaturation equivalent potential temperatures, which capture the leading-order temperature and moisture variations, respectively. The use of layer averages simplifies the analytical and subsequent numerical treatment. Three distinct layers, the boundary layer, the lower free troposphere, and the midtroposphere, adequately capture the vertical variations in the thermodynamic structure. The influence of each environmental layer on the plume is assumed to occur via lateral entrainment, corresponding to an assumed mass-flux profile. The fractional contribution of each layer to the midlevel plume buoyancy (i.e., the layer weight) is estimated from TRMM 3B42 precipitation and ERA-Interim thermodynamic profiles. The layer weights are used to “reverse engineer” a deep-inflow mass-flux profile that is nominally descriptive of the tropical atmosphere through the onset of deep convection. The layer weights—which are nearly the same for each of the layers—constitute an environmental influence function and are also used to compute a free-tropospheric integrated buoyancy measure. This measure is shown to be an effective predictor of onset in conditionally averaged precipitation across the global tropics—over both land and ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding drop size distribution (DSD) variability has important implications for remote sensing and numerical modeling applications. Twelve disdrometer datasets across three latitude bands are analyzed in this study, spanning a broad range of precipitation regimes: light rain, orographic, deep convective, organized midlatitude, and tropical oceanic. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reveal comprehensive modes of global DSD spatial and temporal variability. Although the locations contain different distributions of individual DSD parameters, all locations are found to have the same modes of variability. Based on PCA, six groups of points with unique DSD characteristics emerge. The physical processes that underpin these groups are revealed through supporting radar observations. Group 1 (group 2) is characterized by high (low) liquid water content (LWC), broad (narrow) distribution widths, and large (small) median drop diameters D0. Radar analysis identifies group 1 (group 2) as convective (stratiform) rainfall. Group 3 is characterized by weak, shallow radar echoes and large concentrations of small drops, indicative of warm rain showers. Group 4 identifies heavy stratiform precipitation. The low latitudes exhibit distinct bimodal distributions of the normalized intercept parameter Nw, LWC, and D0 and are found to have a clustering of points (group 5) with high rain rates, large Nw, and moderate D0, a signature of robust warm rain processes. A distinct group associated with ice-based convection (group 6) emerges in the midlatitudes. Although all locations exhibit the same covariance of parameters associated with these groups, it is likely that the physical processes responsible for shaping the DSDs vary as a function of location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Realistic mesoscale model simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and idealized dry simulations were used to study the mechanisms responsible for the formation and evolution of wide cold-frontal rainbands (WCFRs) associated with a wintertime cyclone that moved onto the Washington coast. The WRF simulation reproduced observed characteristics of three successively formed WCFRs, including their spacing and movement as well as the timing of the formation of two WCFRs behind the first. Sensitivity experiments showed that melting-induced cooling in the stratiform precipitation area behind the surface cold front was essential for the formation of the first and second WCFRs, whereas the third WCFR was formed by the release of potential instability within an ascent forced by upper-level frontogenesis. Enhanced frontal updrafts responsible for the first and second WCFRs were created by a superposition of a broad updraft caused by frontal dynamics and upward-propagating gravity waves generated by the melting-induced cooling. The dry simulations forced by specified cooling revealed specific mechanisms for the wave generation and the evolution of the first and second WCFRs. The gravity waves were generated at the intersection of the low-level frontal zone and the melting layer, where strong vertical shear of the cross-front wind and upshear-sloped cooling by melting cooperatively enhanced the wave generation. The formation of the second WCFR behind the first and subsequent dissipation of these WCFRs was attributed to the evolution of a wave pattern associated with the evolution of cross-front flow above the frontal zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The simultaneous precipitation and column water vapor retrievals from the SSM/I and SSMIS passive microwave instruments were used to examine the convective and moisture evolution during tropical cyclone formation. Using a wave-pouch-track dataset, composites of precipitation and column water vapor were constructed with more than 2000 satellite overpasses for a 3-day time period prior to genesis. It was found that high column water vapor occurs near the pouch center and starts to increase about 42 h prior to genesis while a substantial increase in precipitation occurs within 24 h prior to genesis. These features are consistent with a recently proposed two-stage conceptual model for tropical cyclone formation, in which gradual moisture preconditioning precedes an abrupt transition to sustained deep convection leading up to genesis. The relationship between precipitation and saturation fraction (SF) is examined for the developing waves and compared with the general tropical North Atlantic. Precipitation rate is found to increase at the same exponential rate above the same critical point of SF in the two groups, but convection in the developing waves has a higher probability of occurrence near and above criticality. This can be attributed to the positive feedback between convection and the low-level moisture convergence, which counteracts the negative feedback of convection on water vapor and makes convection in a developing tropical cyclone more sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work focuses on the seaward propagation of coastal precipitation with and without mountainous terrain nearby. Offshore of India, diurnal propagation of precipitation is observed over the Bay of Bengal. On the eastern side of the bay, a diurnal but nonpropagating signal is observed near the west coast of Burma. This asymmetry is consistent with the inertio-gravity wave mechanism. Perturbations generated by diurnal heating over the coastal mountains of India propagate offshore, amplify in the upwind direction, and dissipate in the downwind direction relative to the steering wind, owing to critical-level considerations. A linear model is applied to evaluate sensitivity to gravity waves, as these affect deep moist convection and propagation. Analyses are performed for various heating depths, mountain widths, stability, Coriolis effect, background mean wind, and friction. Calculations reveal how these factors affect the amplitude, dissipation, initiation phase, and propagation speed of the diurnal disturbance. The propagation of precipitation triggered by land-sea breezes is distinguishable from that triggered by a mountain-plains circulation. Convection resulting purely from mountain heating begins earlier, propagates slower, and damps faster than that of the land-sea breeze. For mountains near a coast, slower propagation and stronger earlier convection result from a resonance-like combination of two dynamical mechanisms. The propagation of precipitation is initially triggered by the mountain breeze near the coastal mountain. Over the open ocean, the dominant signal propagates as that of the land breeze but with stronger convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The signature of aerosols and meteorology on the development of precipitation from shallow cumuli in the trades is investigated with ground-based lidar and radar remote sensing. The measurements are taken from a cloud observatory recently established on the windward shore of Barbados. Cloud microphysical development is explored through an analysis of the radar echo of shallow cumuli before the development of active precipitation. The increase of reflectivity with height ( Z gradient) depends on the amount of cloud water, which varies with meteorology, and cloud droplet number concentration N, which varies with the aerosol. Clouds with a large Z gradient have a higher tendency to form precipitation than clouds with a small Z gradient. Under similar meteorological conditions, the Z gradient is expected to be large in an environment with few aerosols and small in an environment with many aerosols. The aerosol environment is defined using three methods, but only one (based on the Raman lidar linear-depolarization ratio) to measure dusty conditions correlates significantly with the Z gradient. On average, nondusty days are characterized by a larger Z gradient. However, the dust concentration varies seasonally and covaries with relative humidity. Large-eddy simulations show that small changes in the relative humidity can have as much influence on the development of precipitation within the cloud layer as large changes in N. When clouds are conditioned on their ambient relative humidity, the sensitivity of the Z gradient to dust vanishes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a method for initiating a quasi-stationary, heavy-rain-producing elevated mesoscale convective system in an idealized numerical modeling framework, a series of experiments is conducted in which a shallow layer of drier air is introduced within the near-surface stable layer. The environment is still very moist in the experiments, with changes to the column-integrated water vapor of only 0.3%-1%. The timing and general evolution of the simulated convective systems are very similar, but rainfall accumulation at the surface is changed by a much larger fraction than the reduction in moisture, with point precipitation maxima reduced by up to 29% and domain-averaged precipitation accumulations reduced by up to 15%. The differences in precipitation are partially attributed to increases in the evaporation rate in the shallow subcloud layer, though this is found to be a secondary effect. More importantly, even though the near-surface layer has strong convective inhibition in all simulations and the convective available potential energy of the most unstable parcels is unchanged, convection is less intense in the experiments with drier subcloud layers because less air originating in that layer rises in convective updrafts. An additional experiment with a cooler near-surface layer corroborates these findings. The results from these experiments suggest that convective systems assumed to be elevated are, in fact, drawing air from near the surface unless the low levels are very stable. Considering that the moisture differences imposed here are comparable to observational uncertainties in low-level temperature and moisture, the strong sensitivity of accumulated precipitation to these quantities has implications for the predictability of extreme rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial clustering of drops is a defining characteristic of rain on all scales from centimeters to kilometers. It is the physical basis for much of the observed variability in rain. The authors report here on the temporal-spatial 1-min counts using a network of 21 optical disdrometers over a small area near Charleston, South Carolina. These observations reveal significant differences between spatial and temporal structures (i.e., clustering) for different sizes of drops, which suggest that temporal observations of clustering cannot be used to infer spatial clustering simply using by an advection velocity as has been done in past studies. It is also shown that both spatial and temporal clustering play a role in rain variability depending upon the drop size. The more convective rain is dominated by spatial clustering while the opposite holds for the more stratiform rain. Like previous time series measurements by a single disdrometer but in contradiction with widely accepted drop size distribution power-law relations, it is also shown that there is a linear relation between 1-min averages of the rainfall rate R over the network and the average total number of drops N t. However, the network (area) R-N t relation differs from those derived strictly from time series observations by individual disdrometers. These differences imply that the temporal and spatial size distributions and their variabilities are not equivalent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recent studies have implicated vertical wind shear in producing steady-state size sorting of a distribution of hydrometeors falling at their terminal velocity, which varies as a function of hydrometeor diameter. In particular, this mechanism has been invoked to explain both the strength and storm-relative orientation of the commonly observed differential reflectivity ( ZDR) arc in supercell thunderstorms. However, the actual role of the shear has not been fully clarified. In this study, a simple analytical model is used to show that the fundamental source of size sorting is the storm-relative wind field itself and, in particular, its mean taken over the depth of the sorting layer. Wind shear is only strictly required for producing sustained size sorting in the special but common case of a precipitation source having a motion that lies on the hodograph (such as with the environmental winds at the source level). In supercells, the precipitation source (the rotating updraft) does not necessarily move with the winds at any level. It is shown that this off-hodograph propagation and the associated storm-relative mean wind is responsible for the positive correlation of size-sorting observables (such as ZDR) and storm-relative helicity that has been noted in previous work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The representation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is still a challenge for numerical weather prediction and general circulation models (GCMs) because of the inadequate treatment of convection and the associated interactions across scales by the underlying cumulus parameterizations. One new promising direction is the use of the stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) that has been designed specifically to capture the missing variability due to unresolved processes of convection and their impact on the large-scale flow. The SMCM specifically models the area fractions of the three cloud types (congestus, deep, and stratiform) that characterize organized convective systems on all scales. The SMCM captures the stochastic behavior of these three cloud types via a judiciously constructed Markov birth-death process using a particle interacting lattice model. The SMCM has been successfully applied for convectively coupled waves in a simplified primitive equation model and validated against radar data of tropical precipitation. In this work, the authors use for the first time the SMCM in a GCM. The authors build on previous work of coupling the High-Order Methods Modeling Environment (HOMME) NCAR GCM to a simple multicloud model. The authors tested the new SMCM-HOMME model in the parameter regime considered previously and found that the stochastic model drastically improves the results of the deterministic model. Clear MJO-like structures with many realistic features from nature are reproduced by SMCM-HOMME in the physically relevant parameter regime including wave trains of MJOs that organize intermittently in time. Also one of the caveats of the deterministic simulation of requiring a doubling of the moisture background is not required anymore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A methodology is proposed to investigate the scale dependence of the predictability of precipitation patterns at the mesoscale. By applying it to two or more precipitation fields, either modeled or observed, a decorrelation scale can be defined such that all scales smaller than are fully decorrelated. For precipitation forecasts from a radar data-assimilating storm-scale ensemble forecasting (SSEF) system, is found to increase with lead time, reaching 300 km after 30 h. That is, for , the ensemble members are fully decorrelated. Hence, there is no predictability of the model state for these scales. For , the ensemble members are correlated, indicating some predictability by the ensemble. When applied to characterize the ability to predict precipitation as compared to radar observations by numerical weather prediction (NWP) as well as by Lagrangian persistence and Eulerian persistence, increases with lead time for most forecasting methods, while it is constant (300 km) for non-radar data-assimilating NWP. Comparing the different forecasting models, it is found that they are similar in the 0-6-h range and that none of them exhibit any predictive ability at meso- γ and meso- β scales after the first 2 h. On the other hand, the radar data-assimilating ensemble exhibits predictability of the model state at these scales, thus causing a systematic difference between corresponding to the ensemble and corresponding to model and radar. This suggests that either the ensemble does not have sufficient spread at these scales or that the forecasts suffer from biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how variations to the nondimensional mountain height Ĥ and the horizontal aspect ratio β of a straight ridge and a concave ridge influence orographic precipitation. An idealized three-dimensional model is used to simulate a moist flow impinging upon these two ridges with Ĥ = 0.66-2.0 and β = 1.0-8.0. The concave ridge generates substantially more precipitation than the straight ridge via an established precipitation-enhancing funneling mechanism near the ridge vertex when the flow is unblocked. Based on previous work, it was hypothesized that when the approaching flow becomes blocked, the strength of the precipitation enhancement by the concave ridge relative to the straight ridge becomes negligible. This study reveals that, if Ĥ is sufficiently large to induce flow reversal on the windward slope, then a secondary circulation develops that is strengthened by the concave ridge with a subsequent enhancement of precipitation. It is also shown that the competing effects of the ridge length and width render the strength of the precipitation enhancement largely insensitive to β. A flow regime diagram for the straight ridge and the concave ridge is also constructed to illustrate the sensitivity of the critical Ĥ value for flow regime transition to changes in the terrain geometry; variations to the low-level relative humidity are also explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of supercell morphology to the vertical distribution of moisture is investigated in this study using a cloud-resolving model with 300-m horizontal grid spacing. Simulated storms are found to transition from classic (CL) to low-precipitation (LP) supercells when the strength of elevated dry layers in the environmental moisture profile is increased. Resulting differences in the microphysical and dynamical characteristics of the CL and LPs are analyzed. The LPs produce approximately half of the accumulated surface precipitation as the CL supercell. The precipitating area in the LPs is spatially smaller and overall less intense, especially in the rear-flank downdraft region. The LPs have smaller deviant rightward storm motion compared to the CL supercell, and updrafts are narrower and more tilted, in agreement with observations. Lower relative humidities within the dry layers enhance evaporation and erode the upshear cloud edge in the LPs. This combination favors a downshear distribution of hydrometeors. As a result, hail grows preferentially along the northeastern side of the updraft in the LPs as hail embryos are advected cyclonically around the mesocyclone, whereas the primary midlevel hail growth mechanism in the CL supercell follows the classic Browning and Foote model. The differing dominant hail growth mechanisms can explain the variations in surface precipitation distribution between CLs and LPs. While large changes in the microphysical structure are seen, similarities in the structure and strength of the updraft and vorticity indicate that LP and CL supercells are not dynamically distinct storm types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The kinematic and thermodynamic characteristics of the October and November 2011 Madden-Julian oscillations (MJOs) that occurred over the Indian Ocean during Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) are investigated. Analyses are presented 1) for two primary sounding arrays, where results are independent of model parameterizations, and 2) on larger scales, including the Indian Ocean, using operational and reanalysis data. Mean precipitation during DYNAMO was characterized by maxima in two east-west bands north and south of the equator. This pattern alternated between two bands during the inactive phase of the MJOs and a single rainfall maximum on the equator during the active phases. Precipitation over the northern sounding array (NSA), where the MJO signal was strongest, was significantly modulated by the MJOs, while the southern array experienced more frequent, briefer episodes of rainfall mostly related to ITCZ convection. Over the NSA the MJOs were characterized by gradual moistening of the low to midtroposphere over approximately 2-week periods. The October MJO featured multiple westward-moving, 2-day disturbances whereas the November MJO principally comprised two prominent Kelvin waves. Patterns of moistening, divergence, and vertical motion suggest a stepwise progression of convection, from shallow cumulus to congestus to deep convection. Tilted thermal anomalies in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere reveal gravity or Kelvin waves excited by the MJO convective envelopes, which modulate the tropopause and contribute to preactive-phase upper-tropospheric moistening. While there is a number of similarities in the characteristics of the two MJOs, there are sufficient differences to warrant caution in generalizing results from these two events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three-dimensional radar reflectivity fields from a dual-wavelength Doppler polarimetric radar (S-PolKa) deployed in the equatorial Indian Ocean are used to evaluate the composition of the population of convective cloud elements during active phases of the MJO. Rainfall in active periods was intermittent, occurring in 11 episodes of about 2-4 days, separated by several nonrainy days. Data for these 2-day periods were composited relative to the time of maximum rainfall. Analysis of the S-PolKa data shows the makeup of the convective population during the rainfall episodes. Four types of echo structures were analyzed statistically for the 11 rainfall episodes: shallow convective echoes (SCE), deep convective cores (DCC), wide convective echo cores (WCC), and broad stratiform (BSR) echo regions. SCE and DCC events were most frequent before the maximum rainfall, with the peak frequency of SCE leading that of DCCs. WCCs were most frequent during the rainfall maximum, and BSR regions were most frequent in the later part of the rainfall episode. Composited ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data and 3-hourly atmospheric soundings indicate that the 2-4-day episodes were related to the passage of equatorial waves. In the early part of a rainfall episode, the wave-passage conditions were unstable, favoring deep penetrating convective elements, while in the later period the wave divergence profile was commensurate with convective systems in late anvil-producing stages. These results support the stretched building-block notion of the life cycle of tropical convection and confirm satellite-based interpretations of SCE, DCC, WCC, and BSR statistics in the composition of the convective population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differential sedimentation of precipitation occurs because heavier hydrometeors fall faster than lighter ones. Updrafts and vertical wind shear can maintain this otherwise transient size sorting, resulting in prolonged regions of ongoing particle sorting in storms. This study quantifies the impact of size sorting on the S-band polarimetric radar variables (radar reflectivity factor at horizontal polarization ZH, differential reflectivity ZDR, specific differential phase KDP, and the copolar cross-correlation coefficient ρhv). These variables are calculated from output of two idealized bin models: a one-dimensional model of pure raindrop fallout and a two-dimensional rain shaft encountering vertical wind shear. Additionally, errors in the radar variables as simulated by single-, double-, and triple-moment bulk microphysics parameterizations are quantified for the same size sorting scenarios. Size sorting produces regions of sparsely concentrated large drops with a lack of smaller drops, causing ZDR enhancements as large as 1 dB in areas of decreased ZH, often along a ZH gradient. Such areas of enhanced ZDR are offset from those of high ZH and KDP. Illustrative examples of polarimetric radar observations in a variety of precipitation regimes demonstrate the widespread occurrence of size sorting and are consistent with the bin model simulations. Single-moment schemes are incapable of size sorting, leading to large underestimations in ZDR (>2 dB) compared to the bin model solution. Double-moment schemes with a fixed spectral shape parameter produce excessive size sorting by incorrectly increasing the number of large raindrops, overestimating ZDR by 2-3 dB. Three-moment schemes with variable shape parameters better capture the narrowing drop size distribution resulting from size sorting but can underestimate ZDR and overestimate KDP by as much as 20%. Implications for polarimetric radar data assimilation into storm-scale numerical weather prediction models are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple stochastic model is designed and analyzed in order to further understand the transition to strong convection. The transition has been characterized recently in observational data by an array of statistical measures, including (i) a sharp transition in mean precipitation, and a peak in precipitation variance, at a critical value of column water vapor (CWV), (ii) an approximate power law in the probability density of precipitation event size, (iii) exponential tails in the probability density of CWV values, when conditioned on either precipitating or nonprecipitating locations, and (iv) long and short autocorrelation times of CWV and precipitation, respectively, with approximately exponential and power-law decays in their autocorrelation functions, respectively. The stochastic model presented here captures these four statistical features in time series of CWV and precipitation at a single location. In addition, analytic solutions are given for the exponential tails, which directly relates the tails to model parameters. The model parameterization includes three stochastic components: a stochastic trigger turns the convection on and off (a two-state Markov jump process), and stochastic closures represent variability in precipitation and in 'external' forcing (Gaussian white noise). This stochastic external forcing is seen to be crucial for obtaining extreme precipitation events with high CWV and long lifetimes, because it can occasionally compensate for the heavy precipitation and encourage more of it. This stochastic model can also be seen as a simplified stochastic convective parameterization, and it demonstrates simple ways to turn a deterministic parameterization-the trigger and/or closure-into a stochastic one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variation of precipitation over land due to the diurnal cycle of solar heating is examined here in the context of a simple multicloud model for tropical convection with bulk atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) dynamics. The model utilizes three cloud types (congestus, deep, and stratiform) that are believed to characterize organized tropical convection based on the first two baroclinic modes of vertical structure in the free troposphere, coupled to the ABL through full bulk boundary layer (FBBL) dynamics, that allow a careful separation between sensible and latent heat surface fluxes. In a land parameter regime, characterized by a strong inversion profile, a large Bowen ratio of 0.4, and active mixing of sensible heat due to cumulus entrainment and downdraft fluxes at the top of the ABL, the model supports a stable 1-day periodic solution that is characterized by a pronounced (7 K day−1) afternoon peak in precipitation consistent with observations of tropical precipitation over continental regions. The current study suggests a division of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land into a cycle of five phases: 1) an overnight phase of a radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) state between 2000 and 0600 LST; 2) an early morning CAPE buildup accompanied by a sudden rise in precipitation that quickly dries the middle troposphere occurs between 0600 and roughly 1000 LST; 3) a moistening phase between roughly 1000 and 1600 LST; 4) a phase of maximum precipitation between 1600 and 1800 LST that dries the middle troposphere and quickly consumes CAPE; and 5) a rapid remoistening phase that restores the moisture level to sustain the overnight RCE precipitation and connects to phase 1 in the cycle. Sensitivity tests in the model confirm that the late afternoon precipitation maximum over land depends crucially on a strong inversion, the large Bowen ratio, and the active mixing of sensible heat due to cumulus entrainment and downdraft fluxes at the top of the ABL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variation of tropical precipitation due to the diurnal cycle of solar heating is examined here in the context of two simple models for tropical convection. The models utilize three cloud types-congestus, deep, and stratiform-that are believed to characterize organized tropical convection and are based on the two first baroclinic modes of vertical structure plus a boundary layer mode. The two models differ mainly in the way they treat the boundary layer dynamics. The first one is purely thermodynamical and is reduced to a single equation for the equivalent potential temperature θe connecting the boundary layer to the upper troposphere through downdrafts and to the surface through evaporation while the second uses full bulk boundary layer (FBBL) dynamics with a careful separation between sensible and latent heat fluxes and parameterization of nonprecipitating shallow cumulus. It turns out that in the case of the precipitation over the ocean where the Bowen ratio is small, both models yield a qualitatively similar solution, characterized by an overnight initiation and early morning peak in precipitation consistent with observations. The modeled diurnal cycle of precipitation over the ocean is divided into four cyclic phases: 1) a CAPE (re)generation phase characterized by the enhancement of the boundary layer θe and moisture fluxes during midday and early afternoon that is followed by 2) a (re)moistening phase dominated by congestus heating during the late afternoon and moistening from downdrafts (due to detrainment of shallow cumulus, specifically in the FBBL model) and radiative cooling that lasts until midnight. 3) Deep convection is initiated around midnight when the midtroposphere is sufficiently moist and cool and (re)establishes the precipitation level near its radiative convective equilibrium (1 K day−1) and then 4) peaks with sunrise at 0600 LST to yield a precipitation maximum of roughly 2 K day−1 at around 0900 LST that dries the troposphere and consumes CAPE and closes the cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the lee of major mountain chains worldwide, diurnal physics of organized propagating convection project onto seasonal and climate time scales of the hydrologic cycle, but this phenomenon is not represented in conventional global climate models (GCMs). Analysis of an experimental version of the superparameterized (SP) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) demonstrates that propagating orogenic nocturnal convection in the central U.S. warm season is, however, representable in GCMs that use the embedded explicit convection model approach [i.e., multiscale modeling frameworks (MMFs)]. SP-CAM admits propagating organized convective systems in the lee of the Rockies during synoptic conditions similar to those that generate mesoscale convective systems in nature. The simulated convective systems exhibit spatial scales, phase speeds, and propagation speeds comparable to radar observations, and the genesis mechanism in the model agrees qualitatively with established conceptual models. Convective heating and condensate structures are examined on both resolved scales in SP-CAM, and coherently propagating cloud ''metastructures'' are shown to transcend individual cloud-resolving model arrays. In reconciling how this new mode of diurnal convective variability is admitted in SP-CAM despite the severe idealizations in the cloud-resolving model configuration, an updated discussion is presented of what physics may transcend the re-engineered scale interface in MMFs. The authors suggest that the improved diurnal propagation physics in SP-CAM are mediated by large-scale first-baroclinic gravity wave interactions with a prognostic organization life cycle, emphasizing the physical importance of preserving ''memory'' at the inner resolved scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kelvin--Helmholtz waves were observed by the Twin Lakes, Oklahoma (KTLX), Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D); the Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), polarimetric WSR-88D; and the polarimetric Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) radars on 30 November 2006 during a winter storm in central Oklahoma. The life cycle and structure of the waves are analyzed from the radar data, and the nearby atmospheric conditions are examined. The initial perturbations associated with the waves are first evident only in the radars'' radial velocity fields. As the waves mature, perturbations become discernable in the reflectivity factor Z and spectrum width (SW) fields of both radars, and in the differential reflectivity Zdr and, to a lesser extent, the cross-correlation coefficient ρρhv fields of KOUN. As the waves break and begin to dissipate, the perturbations subside. A dual-Doppler analysis is synthesized to examine the kinematic structure of the waves and to relate the polarimetric observations to the kinematics. It is determined that Z and Zdr are enhanced in regions of upward motion (wave crests), and ρρhv is reduced in the same vicinity and near the base of the wave circulations. Vertical velocity perturbations transport horizontal momentum upward and downward, inducing horizontal wind perturbations that are approximately 90°° out of phase and downstream from their corresponding vertical velocity perturbations. Perturbations in Z, Zdr, and ρρhv are observed in the vicinity of wave crests while SW perturbations occur predominately in and just upstream from wave troughs. It is determined that perturbations in the polarimetric variables are a result of the waves modifying local precipitation microphysics. Perturbations in Z and Zdr are hypothesized to be the result of columnar ice crystal generation whereas those in ρρhv likely result from the mixing of ice crystals of various shapes and sizes. Perturbations in SW are a result of turbulent motions likely associated with wave breaking and downward advection of a strong shear layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations with different CO2 concentrations, local precipitation fluxes are found to obey Clausius--Clapeyron (CC) scaling. Previous studies of the effect of CO2 concentration on precipitation extremes have used general circulation models, which are poor platforms for studying tropical convection because convection is parameterized. In idealized cloud-resolving simulations, it is possible to identify not only the changes in local precipitation fluxes, but also the factors responsible for those changes. There are many properties of convection that can change as the atmosphere warms, each of which could produce deviations from CC scaling. These properties include the effective water-vapor gradient, cloud pressure depth, and cloud velocity. A simple theory is developed that predicts the changes in these properties consistent with CC scaling. Convection in the cloud-resolving simulations is found to change as predicted by this theory, leading to an ∼∼20%% increase in local precipitation fluxes when the CO2 concentration is doubled. Overall, an increase in CO2 leads to more vigorous convection, composed of clouds that are wider, taller, and faster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cloud-nucleating aerosols emitted from mainland China have the potential to influence cloud and precipitation systems that propagate through the region of the East China Sea. Both simulations from the Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) and observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reveal plumes of pollution that are transported into the East China Sea via frontal passage or other offshore flow. Under such conditions, satellite-derived precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) frequently produce discrepancies in rainfall estimates that are hypothesized to be a result of aerosol modification of cloud and raindrop size distributions. Cloud-resolving model simulations were used to explore the impact of aerosol loading on three identified frontal-passage events in which the TMI and PR precipitation estimates displayed large discrepancies. Each of these events was characterized by convective and stratiform elements in association with a frontal passage. Area-averaged time series for each event reveal similar monotonic cloud and rain microphysical responses to aerosol loading. The ratio in the vertical distribution of cloud water to rainwater increased. Cloud droplet concentration increased and the mean diameters decreased, thereby reducing droplet autoconversion and collision--coalescence growth. As a result, raindrop concentration decreased, while the drop mean diameter increased; furthermore, average rainwater path magnitude and area fraction both decreased. The average precipitation rate fields reveal a complex modification of the timing and spatial coverage of rainfall. This suggests that the warm-rain microphysical response to aerosols, in addition to the precipitation life cycle, microphysical feedbacks, and evaporative effects, play an important role in determining surface rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A combined active/passive modeling system that converts CloudSat observations to simulated microwave brightness temperatures ( TB) is used to assess different ice particle models under precipitating conditions. Simulation results indicate that certain ice models (e.g., low-density spheres) produce excessive scattering and implausibly low simulated TBs for stratiform precipitation events owing to excessive derived ice water paths (IWPs), while other ice models produce unphysical TB depressions due to the combined effects of elevated derived IWP and excessive particle size distribution--averaged extinction. An ensemble of nonspherical ice particle models, however, consistently produces realistic results under most circumstances and adequately captures the radiative properties of frozen hydrometeors associated with precipitation--with the possible exception of very high IWP events. Large derived IWP uncertainties exceeding 60%% are also noted and may indicate IWP retrieval accuracy deficiencies using high-frequency passive microwave observations. Simulated TB uncertainties due to the ice particle model ensemble members approach 9 (5) K at 89 (157) GHz for high ice water path conditions associated with snowfall and ∼∼2--3 (∼∼1--2) K under typical stratiform rain conditions. These uncertainties, however, display considerable variability owing to ice water path, precipitation type, satellite zenith angle, and frequency. Comparisons between 157-GHz simulations and observations under precipitating conditions produce low biases (<1.5 K) and high correlations, but lower-frequency channels display consistent negative biases of 3--4 K in precipitating regions. Sample error correlations and covariance matrices for select microwave frequencies also show strong functional relationships with ice water path and variability depending on precipitation type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the possible impact of aerosol solubility and regeneration on warm-phase orographic clouds and precipitation. The sensitivity evaluation is performed by simulating cloud formation over two identical 2D idealized mountains using a detailed bin microphysical scheme implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) version 3. The dynamics, thermodynamics, topography, and microphysical pathways were designed to produce precipitating clouds in a linear hydrostatic mountain wave regime. The cloud over the second mountain is affected by regenerated aerosols advected from the cloud over the first mountain. Effects of aerosol solubility and regeneration were investigated with surface relative humidity of 95% and 85% for both clean and polluted background aerosol concentrations. Among the findings are the following: 1) The total number of cloud drops decreases as the aerosol solubility decreases, and the impacts of aerosol solubility on cloud drops and precipitation are more significant in polluted clouds than in clean clouds. 2) Aerosol regeneration increases cloud drops and reduces the precipitation by 2%-80% in clouds over the second mountain. Regenerated aerosol particles replenish one-third to two-thirds of the missing particles when regeneration is not considered. 3) Different size distributions of regenerated aerosol particles have negligible effect on clouds and precipitation except for polluted clouds with high aerosol solubility. 4) When the solubility of initial aerosol particles decreases with an increasing size of aerosol particles, the modified solubility of regenerated aerosol particles increases precipitation over the second mountain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In two-moment bulk microphysics schemes, the practice of using different weighted fall velocities for the various moments is known to lead to artificial growth in reflectivity values for fast-falling particles, particularly at the downward leading edge of a precipitation column. Two simple correction schemes that prevent these artifacts while still allowing some effects of size sorting are presented. The corrections are obtained by comparing particle number concentrations that result from two or three different sedimentation calculations. The corrections do not conserve particle number concentrations but do prevent spurious reflectivity growth automatically without the need to place ad hoc limits on mean particle size. Multimoment bulk microphysics schemes often have used inconsistent variables in terms of the appropriate advection equation (e.g., mass mixing ratio and particle number concentration). A brief review of consistent advection and turbulent mixing for such variables is presented to provide clarification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In previous work, it was argued that a source of radar coherent scatter occurs in the direction perpendicular to the direction of wave propagation because of the presence of grids of enhanced particle concentrations with spatial periodicities in resonance with the radar wavelength. While convincing, the evidence thus far has been indirect. In this work the authors now present direct observations of radar coherent backscattered signals in precipitation in the direction of wave propagation. The theory is developed for the cross-correlation function of the complex amplitudes in the direction of propagation calculated for nearest neighbor range bins. Data are analyzed in snow and in rain. The results agree with the earlier conclusions in the previous work, namely that coherent scatter occurs in both rain and snow, that it is larger in snow than it is in rain, and that it can be significant at times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm’s warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave’s pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave’s critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classical radar theory only considers incoherent backscatter from precipitation. Can precipitation generate coherent scatter as well? Until now, the accepted answer has been no, because hydrometeors are distributed sparsely in space (relative to radar wavelength) so that the continuum assumption used to explain coherent scatter in clear air and clouds does not hold. In this work, a theory for a different mechanism is presented. The apparent existence of the proposed mechanism is then illustrated in both rain and snow. A new power spectrum Z( f ), the Fourier transform of the time series of the radar backscattered reflectivities, reveals statistically significant frequencies f of periodic components that cannot be ascribed to incoherent scatter. It is shown that removing those significant fs from Z( f ) at lower frequencies greatly reduces the temporal coherency. These lower frequencies, then, are associated with the increased temporal coherency. It is also shown that these fs are also directly linked to the Doppler spectral peaks through integer multiples of one-half the radar wavelength, characteristic of Bragg scatter. Thus, the enhanced temporal coherency is directly related to the presence of coherent scatter in agreement with theory. Moreover, the normalized backscattered power spectrum Z( f ) permits the estimation of the fractional coherent power contribution to the total power, even for an incoherent radar. Analyses of approximately 26 000 one-second Z( f ) in both rain and snow reveal that the coherent scatter is pervasive in these data. These findings present a challenge to the usual assumption that the scatter of radar waves from precipitation is always incoherent and to interpretations of backscattered power based on this assumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanisms associated with the intraseasonal variability of precipitation over South America during the spring season are investigated with emphasis on the influence of a quasi-stationary anomalous circulation over the southeastern South Pacific Ocean (SEP). A spectral analysis performed to the bandpass-filtered time series of daily precipitation anomalies for the La Plata Basin (LPB) and the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) regions revealed several statistically relevant peaks corresponding to periods of roughly 23 days and 14–16 days—with the lower (higher) frequency peaks more prevalent for the SACZ (LPB). The large-scale circulation patterns preconditioning precipitation variability over both regions were explored by means of a regression analysis performed on the daily 500-hPa geopotential anomaly field provided by the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset. The most prominent feature of the regression fields is the presence of a quasi-stationary anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southeastern South Pacific Ocean associated with positive rainfall anomalies over the LPB (SACZ) and, emanating from that high (low), an external Rossby wave propagating northeastward toward the South American continent. The synoptic-scale activity, quantified in terms of a frontal activity index, showed a strong influence on precipitation over the LPB and to a lesser extent over the SACZ. Moreover, the frontal activity is actually modulated by the anomalous high circulation over the SEP region. The behavior of this anomalous circulation may be supported by a positive feedback mechanism that can enhance the response of the high anomaly itself, which in turns reinforces the Rossby wave train propagating toward the South American continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability and the uncertainties in snowfall velocity measurements are addressed in this study. The authors consider (i) the instrumental uncertainty in the fall velocity measurement, (ii) the effect of unstable falling motion on the accuracy of velocity measurement, and (iii) the natural variability of homogeneous snow terminal fall velocity. It is shown that, when periods of homogeneous characteristics of snow are selected to minimize the mixture of particles of different origin, the standard deviation of snowfall velocity within each period tends to stabilize at a value between 0.1 and 0.2 m s−1. In addition, the variability of snow terminal fall velocity is examined with three control variables: surface temperature Ts, echo-top temperature Tt, and the depth of precipitation system H. The results show that the exponent b in the power-law relationship V = aDb has little effect on the variability of snowfall velocity: the coefficient a correlates much better with the control variables ( Ts, Tt, H) than the exponent b. Hence, snowfall velocity can be modeled with a varying coefficient a and a fixed exponent b = 0.18 ( V = aD0.18) with good accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multiscale structure of a super cloud cluster (SCC) over the equatorial Indian Ocean, observed in November and December 2006, was investigated using data from satellite microwave sensors and surface-based radars. The smaller-scale structure of this SCC was marked by a complicated relationship between rainfall systems and upper-tropospheric cloud shields, which moved eastward and westward, respectively, with a cycle of 2–4 days. In the analyses, attention was given to the structure of slow eastward-propagating (5–11 m s−1) precipitating systems and related synoptic-scale (∼2000 km) disturbances. A case study of one of the systems revealed that it consisted of several lines of convective cells with a depth that was usually shallower than 10 km unless the cells encountered the westward-moving cloud shields. The environment of the convective lines was characterized by persistent unstable conditions with an increase of the westerly flow in the lower troposphere, suggesting the existence of a synoptic-scale upward motion. Composite analyses revealed that each rainfall system formed in a region of zonal flow convergence near the surface and divergence near 300 hPa. The vertical temperature structure tilted westward with height below this pressure level and eastward aloft, similar to that of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave. These results suggest that a SCC involves a group of synoptic-scale shallow waves propagating eastward. An additional analysis over the western Pacific also showed the predominance of eastward propagation in a SCC, demonstrating the advantage of satellite microwave sensors over infrared ones in monitoring the multiscale structure of tropical convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diurnal cycle of warm-season precipitation in the Rocky Mountains and adjacent Great Plains of the United States is examined using a numerical modeling framework designed to isolate the role of terrain-influenced diurnally varying flows within a quasi-stationary longwave pattern common to active periods of midsummer convection. Simulations are initialized using monthly averaged conditions and contain lateral boundary conditions that vary only with the diurnal cycle. Together these attributes mitigate effects of transient weather disturbances originating upstream of the model domain. After a spinup period, the final 7 days of the 10-day model integration are analyzed and compared with observations. Results indicate that many salient features of the monthly precipitation climatology are reproduced by the model. These include a stationary afternoon precipitation frequency maximum over the Rocky Mountains followed overnight by an eastward-progressing zone of maximum precipitation frequencies confined to a narrow latitudinal corridor in the Great Plains. The similarity to observations despite the monthly averaged initial and lateral boundary conditions suggests that although progressive weather disturbances (e.g., mobile cold fronts and midtropospheric short waves) that originate outside of the region may help enhance and focus precipitation in individual cases, they are not crucial to the general location and diurnal cycle of midsummer precipitation. The roles of persistent daily features such as the nocturnal low-level jet and the thermally induced mountain–plains vertical circulation on both convection and a mesoscale water budget of the central Great Plains (where the heaviest rain occurs) are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamical mechanisms that led to downstream ridging during the extratropical transition (ET) of Typhoons Tokage and Nabi are evaluated using data drawn from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). During both transitions, the ensemble covariances indicate that the 350-K potential vorticity (PV) at the apex of the ridge, which is used to define the ridge structure, is proportional to the amount of precipitation along the baroclinic zone to the northeast of the tropical cyclone (TC), and at some times to the upper-tropospheric divergence above the tropical cyclone. Multivariate regression calculations indicate that the frontal precipitation has the largest impact on the ridge amplitude and area during Tokage’s transition, while the TC divergence has roughly equal impact during some times of Nabi’s transition. The amount of precipitation along the baroclinic zone is modulated by the lower-tropospheric frontogenesis and moisture flux on the east side of the tropical cyclone, both of which are related to the TC winds. Although both of these metrics covary with the PV at the ridge apex, a one standard deviation perturbation to the moisture flux is associated with a larger change in the ridge PV. Diagnostic perturbations to the initial conditions confirm that increasing (decreasing) the initial moisture flux leads to comparatively lower (higher) PV at the ridge apex 12 h later. Assimilating a single hypothetical wind or moisture observation within the large moisture flux region leads to a 0.3 standard deviation change in the 12-h PV forecast when the observation innovation is comparable to the observation error. Overall, these results suggest that better wind and moisture analyses at the periphery of the TC could improve forecasts of the downstream ridging during ET. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]