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Since the pioneering paper by Nastrom and Gage on aircraft-derived power spectra, significant progress has been made in understanding the wavenumber distribution of energy in Earth’s atmosphere and its implications for the intrinsic limits of weather forecasting. Improvements in tropical cyclone intensity predictions have lagged those of global weather forecasting, and limited intrinsic predictability may be partially responsible. In this study, we construct power spectra from aircraft data of over 1200 missions carried out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC) Hurricane Hunters. Each mission is parsed into distinct flight legs, and legs meeting a specified set of criteria are used for spectral analysis. Here, we produce power spectra composites for each category of the Saffir–Simpson scale, revealing a systematic relationship between spectral slope and storm intensity. Specifically, as storm intensity increases, we find that 1) spectral slope becomes steeper across scales from 10 to 160 km and 2) the transition zone where spectral slope begins to steepen shifts downscale.

Elevated heating of the atmosphere by large plateaus has been argued to influence regional climate in Asia and other regions, but the mechanisms that cause the troposphere to equilibrate at warmer temperatures over elevated terrain are not well understood. This paper quantitatively describes the physics that controls temperatures over elevated terrain in radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE). First, a cloud-system-resolving model (CSRM) is used to simulate RCE states over surfaces with various elevations. Then, a theory for the influence of surface elevation on temperatures in RCE is presented. Together with offline radiative transfer calculations, this theory is used to quantitatively attribute the magnitude of the elevated heating effect to top-of-atmosphere radiative flux changes caused by decreases in longwave absorption, shortwave scattering, and the moist lapse rate that occur as surface pressure drops. Sensitivity functions obtained through these offline calculations suggest that elevated heating is weaker in warmer climates, and additional CSRM simulations support this hypothesis. Under certain circumstances, even the sign of the elevated heating effect can change to produce cooler temperatures at a given pressure level as the surface is lifted in RCE.

In Part I of this two-part paper, a formulation was developed to treat fragmentation in ice–ice collisions. In the present Part II, the formulation is implemented in two microphysically advanced cloud models simulating a convective line observed over the U.S. high plains. One model is 2D with a spectral bin microphysics scheme. The other has a hybrid bin–two-moment bulk microphysics scheme in 3D. The case consists of cumulonimbus cells with cold cloud bases (near 0°C) in a dry troposphere. Only with breakup included in the simulation are aircraft observations of particles with maximum dimensions >0.2 mm in the storm adequately predicted by both models. In fact, breakup in ice–ice collisions is by far the most prolific process of ice initiation in the simulated clouds (95%–98% of all nonhomogeneous ice), apart from homogeneous freezing of droplets. Inclusion of breakup in the cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations increased, by between about one and two orders of magnitude, the average concentration of ice between about 0° and −30°C. Most of the breakup is due to collisions of snow with graupel/hail. It is broadly consistent with the theoretical result in Part I about an explosive tendency for ice multiplication. Breakup in collisions of snow (crystals >~1 mm and aggregates) with denser graupel/hail was the main pathway for collisional breakup and initiated about 60%–90% of all ice particles not from homogeneous freezing, in the simulations by both models. Breakup is predicted to reduce accumulated surface precipitation in the simulated storm by about 20%–40%.

Arctic climate change in winter is tightly linked to changes in the strength of surface temperature inversions, which occur frequently in the present climate as Arctic air masses form during polar night. Recent work proposed that, in a warmer climate, increasing low-cloud optical thickness of maritime air advected over high-latitude landmasses during polar night could suppress the formation of Arctic air masses, amplifying winter warming over continents and sea ice. But this mechanism was based on single-column simulations that could not assess the role of fractional cloud cover change. This paper presents two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulations that support the single-column model results: low-cloud optical thickness and duration increase strongly with initial air temperature, slowing the surface cooling rate as the climate is warmed. The cloud-resolving model cools less at the surface than the single-column model, and the sensitivity of its cooling to warmer initial temperatures is also higher, because it produces cloudier atmospheres with stronger lower-tropospheric mixing and distributes cloud-top cooling over a deeper atmospheric layer with larger heat capacity. Resolving larger-scale cloud turbulence has the greatest impact on the microphysics schemes that best represent general observed features of mixed-phase clouds, increasing their sensitivity to climate warming. These findings support the hypothesis that increasing insulation of the high-latitude land surface by low clouds in a warmer world could act as a strong positive feedback in future climate change and suggest studying Arctic air formation in a three-dimensional climate model.

For decades, enhancement of ice concentrations above those of active ice nucleus aerosols was observed in deep clouds with tops too warm for homogeneous freezing, indicating fragmentation of ice (multiplication). Several possible mechanisms of fragmentation have been suggested from laboratory studies, and one of these involves fragmentation in ice–ice collisions. In this two-part paper, the role of breakup in ice–ice collisions in a convective storm consisting of many cloud types is assessed with a modeling approach. The colliding ice particles can belong to any microphysical species, such as crystals, snow, graupel, hail, or freezing drops. In the present study (Part I), a full physical formulation of initiation of cloud ice by mechanical breakup in collisions involving snow, graupel, and/or hail is developed based on an energy conservation principle. Theoretically uncertain parameters are estimated by simulating laboratory and field experiments already published in the literature. Here, collision kinetic energy (CKE) is the fundamental governing variable of fragmentation in any collision, because it measures the energy available for breakage by work done to create the new surface of fragments. The developed formulation is general in the sense that it includes all the types of fragmentation observed in previous published studies and encompasses collisions of either snow or crystals with graupel/hail, collisions among only graupel/hail, and collisions among only snow/crystals. It explains the observed dependencies on CKE, size, temperature, and degree of prior riming.

The solar zenith angle controls local insolation and also affects the partitioning of insolation into planetary reflection, atmospheric absorption, and surface absorption. Because of this role of the solar zenith angle in modulating albedo, Cronin and others have proposed that insolation weighting should be used to determine the solar zenith angle when a single-angle calculation is used to represent a spatial or temporal average of solar fluxes. A comment by Li claims instead that daytime weighting is optimal, and that insolation weighting leads to serious errors, but this claim is based on a severe misinterpretation of the method proposed by Cronin. With any method of zenith angle averaging, both the solar constant and the zenith angle are free parameters, but their product—the mean insolation—must be held constant. Li fails to hold insolation constant when comparing different methods of zenith angle averaging and, thus, obtains large but spurious “errors.” This paper attempts to clarify the method proposed by Cronin and tabulates the insolation-weighted solar zenith angle and solar constant that should be used as a function of latitude for annual-average radiative transfer on a planet with Earth’s obliquity and a circular orbit.

In this paper, the authors suggest a dynamical mechanism involved in the revival of the summer monsoon after breaks. In this context, the authors carry out a diagnostic analysis using the datasets from National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 for the period 1979–2007 to identify a robust mechanism that typifies breaks and subsequent revival of monsoon. The authors find during the peak of significant breaks an anomalous southward shift of the subtropical westerly jet stream, which is invariably accompanied by an anomalous northward shift of a stronger-than-normal easterly jet. These major changes during a break facilitate an instability mechanism, which apparently leads to formation of a synoptic disturbance. Formation of such a disturbance is critical to the subsequent revival of the summer monsoon in 61% of the observed break-to-active revivals.Computations of energetics and correlation analysis carried out suggest an increase in the eddy kinetic energy at the expense of the mean kinetic energy during the breaks, in agreement with the formation of the synoptic disturbance. This demonstrates that barotropic instability in the presence of a monsoon basic flow is the primary physical mechanism that controls the revival of the summer monsoon subsequent to the break events.

In idealized numerical simulations of supercell-like “pseudostorms” generated by a heat source and sink in a vertically sheared environment, a tornado-like vortex develops if air possessing large circulation about a vertical axis at the lowest model levels can be converged. This is most likely to happen if the circulation-rich air possesses only weak negative buoyancy (the circulation-rich air has a history of descent, so typically possesses at least some negative buoyancy) and is subjected to an upward-directed vertical perturbation pressure gradient force. This paper further explores the sensitivity of the development of near-surface vertical vorticity to the horizontal position of the heat sink. Shifting the position of the heat sink by only 2–3 km can significantly influence vortex intensity by altering both the baroclinic generation of circulation and the buoyancy of circulation-rich air. Many of the changes in the pseudostorms that arise from shifting the position of the heat sink would be difficult to anticipate. The sensitivity of the pseudostorms to heat sink position probably at least partly explains the well-known sensitivity of near-surface vertical vorticity development to the microphysics parameterizations in more realistic supercell storm simulations, as well as some of the failures of actual supercells to produce tornadoes in seemingly favorable environments.

Studies have suggested that the persistence in the meridional vacillation of the midlatitude jet (i.e., annular mode time scale) in comprehensive climate models is related to the model biases in climatological jet latitude, with important implications for projections of future climates and midlatitude weather events. Through the use of the recently developed finite-amplitude wave activity formalism and feedback quantifying techniques, this paper has quantified the role of barotropic and baroclinic eddy feedbacks in annular mode time scales using an idealized dry atmospheric model. The eddy–mean flow interaction that characterizes the persistent anomalous state of the midlatitude jet depends on processes associated with the lower-tropospheric source of vertically propagating Rossby waves, baroclinic mechanisms, and processes associated with upper-tropospheric wave propagation and breaking, barotropic mechanisms. A variety of climate change–like thermal forcings are used to generate a range of meridional shifts in the midlatitude eddy-driven jet. The idealized model shows a reduction in annular mode time scale associated with an increase in jet latitude, similar to comprehensive climate models. This decrease in time scale can be attributed to a similar decrease in the strength of the barotropic eddy feedback, which, in the positive phase of the annular mode, is characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV) mixing on the equatorward flank of the climatological jet. The decrease in subtropical PV mixing is, in turn, associated with a stronger subtropical jet as the eddy-driven jet is more distant from the subtropics. These results highlight the importance of subtropical eddy–mean flow interactions for the persistence of an eddy-driven jet.

The number of ice fragments generated by breakup of large graupel in collisions with small graupel fluctuates randomly owing to fluctuations in relative sizes and densities of colliding graupel particles and the stochastic nature of fracture propagation. This paper investigates the impact of the stochasticity of breakup on ice multiplication. When both the rate of generation of primary ice and the initial number concentration of ice crystals are low, the system most likely loses all the initial ice and graupel owing to a lack of sustaining sources. Even randomness does not change this mean evolution of the system in its phase space. However, a fluctuation of ice breakup number gives a small but finite chance that substantial ice crystal fragments are generated by breakup of large graupel. That, in turn, generates more large graupel. This multiplicative process due to fluctuations potentially leads to a small but finite chance of explosive growth of ice number. A rigorous stochastic analysis demonstrates this point quantitatively. The randomness considered here belongs to a particular category called “multiplicative” noise, because the noise amplitude is proportional to a given physical state. To contrast the multiplicative-noise nature of ice breakup with a standard “additive” noise process, fluctuation of the primary ice generation rate is also considered as an example of the latter. These processes are examined by taking the Fokker–Planck equation that explicitly describes the evolution of the probability distribution with time. As an important conclusion, stability in the phase space of the cloud microphysical system of breakup in ice–ice collisions is substantially altered by the multiplicative noise.

This paper addresses the validity of the gradient wind balance approximation during the intensification phase of a tropical cyclone in Ooyama’s three-layer model. For this purpose, the sensitivity to various model modifications is examined, given by the inclusion of (i) unbalanced dynamics in the free atmosphere, (ii) unbalanced dynamics in the slab boundary layer, (iii) a height-parameterized boundary layer model, and (iv) a rigid lid. The most rapid intensification occurs when the model employs the unbalanced slab boundary layer, while the simulation with the balanced boundary layer reveals the slowest intensification. The simulation with the realistic height-parameterized boundary layer model exhibits an intensification rate that lies in between. Intensification is induced by a convective ring in all experiments, but a distinct contraction of the radius of maximum gradient wind only takes place with unbalanced boundary layer dynamics. In all experiments the rigid lid and the balance approximation for the free atmosphere have no crucial impact on intensification, and a linear stability analysis cannot explain the found sensitivity to intensification. Most likely the nonlinear momentum advection term plays an important role in the boundary layer. It is found on the basis of a diagnostic radial mass flux equation that the source term for latent heat provides the largest contribution to intensification and contraction. Furthermore, it turns out that the position of the convective ring inside or outside of the radius of maximum gradient wind (RMGW) is of vital importance for intensification and most likely explains the large impact of boundary layer imbalance.

The paper demonstrates that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can be simulated in an ensemble of dry dynamical cores that miss the typical SSW forcing mechanisms like moist processes, land–sea contrasts, or topography. These idealized general circulation model (GCM) simulations are driven by a simple Held–Suarez–Williamson (HSW) temperature relaxation and low-level Rayleigh friction. In particular, the four dynamical cores of NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), are used, which are the semi-Lagrangian (SLD) and Eulerian (EUL) spectral-transform models and the finite-volume (FV) and the spectral element (SE) models. Three research themes are discussed. First, it is shown that SSW events in such idealized simulations have very realistic flow characteristics that are analyzed via the SLD model. A single vortex-split event is highlighted that is driven by wavenumber-1 and -2 wave–mean flow interactions. Second, the SLD simulations are compared to the EUL, FV, and SE dynamical cores, which sheds light on the impact of the numerical schemes on the circulation. Only SLD produces major SSWs, while others only exhibit minor stratospheric warmings. These differences are caused by SLD’s more vigorous wave–mean flow interactions in addition to a warm pole bias, which leads to relatively weak polar jets in SLD. Third, it is shown that tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)–like oscillations and SSWs can coexist in such idealized HSW simulations. They are present in the SLD dynamical core that is used to analyze the QBO–SSW interactions via a transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) analysis. The TEM results provide support for the Holton–Tan effect.

Over coastal mountain ranges of the Asian monsoon region, heavy orographic rainfall is frequently associated with low precipitation-top heights (PTHs). This leads to conspicuous underestimation of rainfall using microwave radiometer algorithms, which conventionally assume that heavy rainfall is associated with high PTHs. Although topographically forced upward motion is important for rainfall occurrence, it does not fully constrain precipitation profiles in this region. This paper focuses on the thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere that determine PTHs in tropical coastal mountains of Asia (Western Ghats, Arakan Yoma, Bilauktaung, Cardamom, Annam Range, and the Philippines). PTHs of heavy orographic rainfall generally decrease with enhanced low- and midlevel relative humidity, especially during the summer monsoon. In contrast, PTHs over the Annam Range of the Indochina Peninsula increase with enhanced low-level and midlevel relative humidity during the transition from boreal summer to winter monsoon, demonstrating that convection depth is not simply a function of humidity. Instead, PTHs of heavy orographic rainfall decreased with increasing low-level stability for all monsoon regions considered in this study, as well as the Annam Range during the transition from boreal summer to winter monsoon. Therefore, low-level static stability, which inhibits cloud growth and promotes cloud detrainment, appears to be the most important parameter in determining PTHs of heavy rainfall in the Asian monsoon region.

The relationship between n = 0 mixed Rossby–gravity waves (MRGs) and eastward inertio-gravity waves (EIGs) from Matsuno’s shallow-water theory on an equatorial beta plane is studied using statistics of satellite brightness temperature Tb and dynamical fields from ERA-Interim data. Unlike other observed convectively coupled equatorial waves, which have spectral signals well separated into eastward and westward modes, there is a continuum of MRG–EIG power standing above the background that peaks near wavenumber 0. This continuum is also present in the signals of dry stratospheric MRGs. While hundreds of papers have been written on MRGs, very little work on EIGs has appeared in the literature to date. The authors attribute this to the fact that EIG circulations are much weaker than those of MRGs for a given amount of divergence, making them more difficult to observe even though they strongly modulate convection. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and cross-spectral analysis of 2–6-day-filtered Tb isolate zonally standing modes of synoptic-scale convection originally identified by Wallace in 1971. These display antisymmetric Tb signals about the equator that propagate poleward with a period of around 4 days, along with westward-propagating MRG-like circulations that move through the Tb patterns. Further analysis here and in Part II shows that these signatures are not artifacts of the EOF approach but result from a mixture of MRG or EIG modes occurring either in isolation or at the same time.

The processes responsible for double-peak latitudinal structures in the time-averaged tropical lower-stratospheric upwelling, centered near 70 hPa and 20°N/S, previously noted in ERA-Interim and other reanalysis and model datasets, are considered. It is demonstrated that the structure of the wave force resolved by ERA-Interim consistently balances the angular momentum transport associated with the double peak. Analysis of the corresponding structures in diabatic heating rates from ERA-Interim indicates that the peaks arise predominantly from the meridional structure in ozone concentrations and the associated absorption of both shortwave and longwave radiation. Additional smaller contributions arise from local absorption of longwave radiation emitted from the relatively warm layers above and below, as well as from cloud-related radiative effects and nonradiative diabatic heating. The temperature at 70 hPa is slightly higher near 20°N/S than at the equator, opposite of what would be expected if the latitudinal structure in radiative heating were associated with local relaxation. It is proposed on the basis of this analysis that the primary cause of the peaks in upwelling is the externally imposed (i.e., nonrelaxational) part of the radiative heating field. The dynamical plausibility of this hypothesis is investigated in a companion paper.

This paper presents high-resolution numerical solutions of a nonlinear zonally symmetric slab model of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) boundary layer. The boundary layer zonal and meridional flows are forced by a specified pressure field, which can also be interpreted as a specified geostrophically balanced zonal wind field ug(y). One narrow on-equatorial peak in boundary layer pumping is produced when the forcing is easterly geostrophic flow along the equator and two narrow peaks in boundary layer pumping are produced on opposite sides of the equator (a double ITCZ) when the forcing is westerly geostrophic flow along the equator. In the case when easterlies are surrounding a westerly wind burst, once again a double ITCZ is produced, but the ITCZs have significantly more intense boundary layer pumping than the case of only westerly geostrophic flow. A comparison of the numerical solutions to those of classical Ekman theory suggests that the meridional advection term υ(∂υ/∂y) plays a vital role in strengthening and narrowing boundary layer pumping regions while weakening and broadening boundary layer suction regions.

This paper assesses the influence of radiative forcing and latent heating on the development and maintenance of cloud-top generating cells (GCs) in high-resolution idealized Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations with initial conditions representative of the vertical structure of a cyclone observed during the Profiling of Winter Storms campaign. Simulated GC kinematics, structure, and ice mass are shown to compare well quantitatively with Wyoming Cloud Radar, cloud probe, and other observations. Sensitivity to radiative forcing was assessed in simulations with longwave-only (nighttime), longwave-and-shortwave (daytime), and no-radiation parameterizations. The domain-averaged longwave cooling rate exceeded 0.50 K h−1 near cloud top, with maxima greater than 2.00 K h−1 atop GCs. Shortwave warming was weaker by comparison, with domain-averaged values of 0.10–0.20 K h−1 and maxima of 0.50 K h−1 atop GCs. The stabilizing influence of cloud-top shortwave warming was evident in the daytime simulation’s vertical velocity spectrum, with 1% of the updrafts in the 6.0–8.0-km layer exceeding 1.20 m s−1, compared to 1.80 m s−1 for the nighttime simulation. GCs regenerate in simulations with radiative forcing after the initial instability is released but do not persist when radiation is not parameterized, demonstrating that radiative forcing is critical to GC maintenance under the thermodynamic and vertical wind shear conditions in this cyclone. GCs are characterized by high ice supersaturation (RHice > 150%) and latent heating rates frequently in excess of 2.00 K h−1 collocated with vertical velocity maxima. Ice precipitation mixing ratio maxima of greater than 0.15 g kg−1 were common within GCs in the daytime and nighttime simulations.

Rossby wave packets (RWPs) have been associated with increased atmospheric predictability but also with the growth and propagation of forecast uncertainty. To address the important question of under which conditions RWPs imply high and low predictability, a potential vorticity–potential temperature (PV–θ) framework is introduced to diagnose RWP dynamics. Finite-amplitude RWPs along the midlatitude waveguide are considered and are represented by the synoptic-scale, wavelike undulations of the tropopause. The evolution of RWPs is examined by the amplitude evolution of the individual troughs and ridges. Troughs and ridges are identified as PV anomalies on θ levels intersecting the midlatitude tropopause. By partitioning the PV-tendency equation, individual contributions to the amplitude evolution are identified. A novel aspect is that the important role of the divergent flow and the diabatic PV modification is quantified explicitly. Arguably, prominent upper-tropospheric divergent flow is associated to a large extent with latent-heat release below and can thus be considered as an indirect diabatic impact. A case study of an RWP evolution over 7 days illustrates the PV–θ diagnostic. In general, baroclinic coupling and, important, the divergent flow make contributions to the amplitude evolution of individual troughs and ridges that are comparable in magnitude to the wave’s group propagation. Diabatic PV modification makes a subordinate contribution to the evolution. The relative importance of the different processes exhibits considerable variability between individual troughs and ridges. A discussion of the results in light of recent studies on forecast errors and predictability concludes the paper.

A physically based method for parameterizing the role of subgrid-scale turbulence in the production and maintenance of supercooled liquid water and mixed-phase clouds is presented. The approach used is to simplify the dynamics of supersaturation fluctuations to a stochastic differential equation that can be solved analytically, giving increments to the prognostic liquid cloud fraction and liquid water content fields in a general circulation model (GCM). Elsewhere, it has been demonstrated that the approach captures the properties of decameter-resolution large-eddy simulations of a turbulent mixed-phase environment. In this paper, it is shown that it can be implemented in a GCM, and the effects that this has on Southern Ocean biases and on Arctic stratus are investigated.

Equatorial long-wave theory applies where a small horizontal aspect ratio between meridional and zonal length scales is assumed. In an idealized setting, the theory suggests that (i) meridional wind is small, (ii) geostrophic balance holds in the meridional direction, and (iii) inertio-gravity waves are small in amplitude or “filtered out.” In this paper a spectral data analysis method is used to quantitatively assess the spatial and temporal scales on which each of these aspects of long-wave dynamics is observed in reanalysis data. Three different perspectives are used in this assessment: primitive variables, characteristic variables, and wave variables. To define each wave variable, the eigenvectors and theoretical wave structures of the equatorial shallow-water equations are used. Evidence is presented that the range of spatial and temporal scales on which long-wave dynamics holds depends on which aspect of the dynamics is considered. For example, while meridional winds are an order of magnitude smaller than zonal winds over only a very narrow range of spatial scales (planetary wavenumber ), an examination of meridional geostrophic balance and inertio-gravity waves indicates long-wave dynamics for a broader range of scales (). A simple prediction is also presented for this range of scales based on physical and mathematical reasoning.

Information about microphysical processes in warm clouds embedded in satellite measurements must be untangled to be used to improve the parameterization in global models. In this paper, the relationship between vertical profiles of horizontally averaged radar reflectivity Zm and cloud optical depth from cloud top τd was investigated using a hybrid cloud microphysical model and a forward simulator of satellite measurements. The particle size distributions were explicitly simulated using a bin method in a kinematic framework. In contrast to previous interpretations of satellite-observed data, three patterns of the Zm–τd relationship related to microphysical processes were identified. The first is related to the autoconversion process, which causes Zm to increase upward with decreasing τd. Before the initiation of surface precipitation, Zm increases downward with τd in the upper part of the cloud, which is considered to be a second characteristic pattern and is caused by the accretion process. The appearance of this pattern corresponds to the initiation of efficient production of raindrops in the cloud. The third is related to the sedimentation and evaporation of raindrops causing Zm to decrease downward with τd in the lower part of the Zm–τd relationship. It was also found that the bulk collection efficiency has a partially positive correlation with the slope factor of Zm with regard to τd and that the slope factor could be a gross measure of the collection efficiency in partial cases. This study also shows that differences in the aerosol concentration modulate the duration of these three patterns and change the slope factor of Zm.

Midlatitude storm tracks shift in response to climate change and natural climate variations such as El Niño, but the dynamical mechanisms controlling these shifts are not well established. This paper develops an energy balance model that shows how shifts of the Hadley cell terminus and changes of the meridional energy flux out of the Hadley cell can drive shifts of storm tracks, identified as extrema of the atmospheric meridional eddy energy flux. The distance between the Hadley cell terminus and the storm tracks is primarily controlled by the energy flux out of the Hadley cell. Because tropical forcings alone can modify the Hadley cell terminus, they can also shift extratropical storm tracks, as demonstrated through simulations with an idealized GCM. Additionally, a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient at the terminus and hence of the energy flux out of the Hadley cell can reduce the distance between the Hadley cell terminus and the storm tracks, enabling storm-track shifts that do not parallel shifts of the Hadley cell terminus. Thus, with the aid of the energy balance model and supporting GCM simulations, a closed theory of storm-track shifts emerges.

This paper examines the interactions between ice-albedo, lapse-rate and cloud-top feedbacks with the aid of GCM climate experiments published by Wetherald and Manabe (1975). First we establish that the long-wave modification effect (the so-called “greenhouse effect”) of clouds depends largely on the temperature difference Tsc between surface and cloud tops. If Tsc changes with a change in the surface temperature Ts, then the longwave modification effect of clouds would change which would result in a modification of the initial change in Ts. This feedback between the longwave modification effect of clouds and Ts, is referred to as the cloud top feedback in this paper. The sign of this feedback is considered positive (negative) when it amplifies (decreases) an initial change in Ts and it is shown that the sign is determined by the sign of dTsc/dTs. In the GCM climate experiments of Wetherald and Manabe (1975), dTsc/dTs 0 at high latitudes; consequently, cloud top...

This paper is concerned. with the application of well-known statistical methods (e.g. matched-pairs t-test, two-sample t-test, one-way analysis of variance and significance test of Pearson's correlation coefficient) in the atmospheric sciences. This concern results from the fact that these statistical methods are based on a complex nonintuitive geometry which does not correspond with the perceived Euclidean geometry of the data intended to be analyzed. The real and artificial examples of this paper demonstrate how these commonly used statistical methods yield conclusions which may contradict rational interpretations by investigators. The geometric problem underlying these well-known statistical methods is their dependence on a peculiar distance measure defined between all pairs of measurements (this distance measure does not satisfy the triangle inequality condition of metric spaces, e.g., the familiar Euclidean space). Alternative statistical methods are suggested which overcome this geometric p...

This paper is concerned with the effects of nonlinear eddy coefficients on rising, dry fine thermals. The base atmosphere in which these thermals are embedded is hydrostatic, horizontally homogeneous, nearly neutral, and without an ambient wind. By identifying the turbulent transfer terms with the subgrid–scale motions, a nonlinear formulation, based upon the worn. of Lilly and Smagorinsky, is obtained for the eddy coefficients. The mixing length in these terms is based upon a vorticity formulation rather than the size of the numerical grid used in the computations. Using numerical techniques based upon the work of Arakawa, and Adams and Bashforth, we tested these formulations by following the evolution of rising line thermals. We concluded that the eddy formulation used in this paper is more realistic than using constant coefficients throughout the field of computation. In addition, we found that the density stratification is important if the convective layer is deeper than 3 km.

In this paper the equations for a field of convective plumes are non-dimensionalized. These were derived in an earlier paper by formulating a model which included turbulence as an independent property with a specific kinetic energy. The numerical solutions previously discussed are extended so as to cover all conditions. It is shown that two non-dimensional parameters fully determine the solutions obtained. The field consists of plumes rising up to a level where the stability of the overlying air forces the air to turn about and descend again between the plumes to the surface. The model uses the beat flux, the layer depth, and the surface turbulence intensity (rms turbulent velocity) as parameters and does not include the wind specifically. The previous cases of the field solutions showed properties similar to those observed in atmospheric convection, as then discussed, and this paper extends the number of solutions so the general behavior becomes clear. These results show how there is likely to b...

Results of computations of energy exchanges between waves and waves and between waves and zonal flows (for a tropical belt 15S to 15N at 200 mb for northern summer) are presented in this paper. These exchanges are 92-day averages. The procedure for calculations is essentially that proposed by Saltzman. The main results of this study are: Zonal wavenumber 1 appears to be a major energy source for the tropics. In general, one of two other waves interacting with wavenumber 1 gains energy. Wavenumber 1 also supplies energy to the zonal flows in the mean. Thus, it has a stabilizing influence on the zonal flows. On the other hand, zonal flows are unstable and lose energy to shorter waves, especially around wavenumber 8. In this paper we also discuss some details of the nonlinear wave-wave energy exchanges.

Aerodynamic condensation is a result of intense adiabatic cooling in the airflow over aircraft wings and behind propeller blades. Out of cloud, condensation appears as a burstlike fog (jet aircraft during takeoff and landing, propellers) or as an iridescent trail visible from the ground behind the trailing edge of the wing (jet aircraft in subsonic cruise flight) consisting of a monodisperse population of ice particles that grow to sizes comparable to the wavelength of light in ambient humidities above ice saturation. In this paper, the authors focus on aerodynamic contrail ice particle formation processes over jet aircraft wings. A 2D compressible flow model is used to evaluate two likely processes considered for the initial ice particle formation: homogeneous droplet nucleation (HDN) followed by homogeneous ice nucleation (HIN) and condensational growth of ambient condensation nuclei followed by their homogenous freezing. The model shows that the more numerous HDN particles outcompete frozen solution droplets for water vapor in a 0.5–1-m layer directly above the wing surface and are the only ice particles that become visible. Experimentally verified temperature and relative humidity–dependent parameterizations of rates of homogeneous droplet nucleation, growth, and freezing indicate that visible aerodynamic contrails form between T = −20° and −50°C and RH ≥ 80%. By contrast, combustion contrails require temperatures below −38°C and ice-saturated conditions to persist. Therefore, aerodynamic and combustion contrails can be observed simultaneously.

This paper describes and tests a single-particle ice growth model that evolves both ice crystal mass and shape as a result of vapor growth and riming. Columnar collision efficiencies in the model are calculated using a new theoretical method derived from spherical collision efficiencies. The model is able to evolve mass, shape, and fall speed of growing ice across a range of temperatures, and it compares well with wind tunnel data. The onset time of riming and the effects of riming on mass and fall speed between −3° and −16°C are modeled, as compared with wind tunnel data for a liquid water content of 0.4 g m−3. Under these conditions, riming is constrained to the more isometric habits near −10° and −4°C. It is shown that the mass and fall speed of riming dendrites depend on the liquid drop distribution properties, leading to a range of mass–size and fall speed–size relationships. Riming at low liquid water contents is shown to be sensitive to ice crystal habit and liquid drop size. Moreover, very light riming can affect the shape of ice crystals enough to reduce vapor growth and suppress overall mass growth, as compared with those same ice crystals if they were unrimed.

This paper presents analyses of the microphysical structure of comma head stratiform precipitation in 14 continental cyclones, focusing on fall streaks of hydrometeors produced by cloud-top convective generating cells. Data were obtained at temperatures between −4° and −45°C using in situ instrumentation and the W-band University of Wyoming Cloud Radar, all operated aboard the National Science Foundation/National Center for Atmospheric Research C-130. Analyses are presented first for a case study of one cyclone, followed by statistical analyses of the full dataset. Using radar-based objective classifications, the statistical percentile number concentrations averaged 1.9 times larger within the fall streaks compared to the regions between them, and the corresponding ice water content and median mass diameter values averaged 2.2 and 1.1 times larger. Ice-phase conditions were predominant within the stratiform precipitation, with deposition and aggregation the primary ice growth mechanisms. No distinct vertical velocity signatures were associated with the fall streaks, and similar ice growth mechanisms were common within and between them. Combined with observations of cloud-top generating cells in many of the same cyclones, these analyses provide a more complete description of the comma head microphysical structure and the physical processes producing precipitation. Whereas the generating cells are critical to nucleation and initial ice growth, the majority of ice growth (exceeding 90% of the median ice water contents in the case study) typically occurred below the generating-cell level, where enhanced moisture associated with synoptic-scale ascent was present.

The authors investigate atmospheric internal gravity waves (IGWs): their generation and induction of global intermittent turbulence in the nocturnal stable atmospheric boundary layer based on the new concept of turbulence generation discussed in a prior paper by Sun et al. The IGWs are generated by air lifted by convergence forced by the colliding background flow and cold currents near the ground. The buoyancy-forced IGWs enhance wind speed at the wind speed wave crests such that the bulk shear instability generates large coherent eddies, which augment local turbulent mixing and vertically redistribute momentum and heat. The periodically enhanced turbulent mixing, in turn, modifies the air temperature and flow oscillations of the original IGWs. These turbulence-forced oscillations (TFOs) resemble waves and coherently transport momentum and sensible heat. The observed momentum and sensible heat fluxes at the IGW frequency, which are due to either the buoyancy-forced IGWs themselves or the TFOs, are larger than turbulent fluxes near the surface. The IGWs enhance not only the bulk shear at the wave crests, but also local shear over the wind speed troughs of the surface IGWs. Temporal and spatial variations of turbulent mixing as a result of this wave-induced turbulent mixing change the mean airflow and the shape of the IGWs.

This paper compares the tilt dynamics of a mature tropical cyclone simulated with a conventional cloud model to reduced modeling results and theoretical predictions. The primary experiment involves a tropical cyclone of hurricane strength on the f plane exposed to a finite period of idealized misalignment forcing. A complementary experiment shows how the vortex responds to the same forcing when moisture and symmetric secondary circulation (SSC) are removed from the initial condition. It is found that the applied forcing excites a much stronger tilt mode in the dry nonconvective vortex than in the moist convective hurricane. The evolution of tilt in both experiments agrees reasonably well with a simple linear response theory that neglects the SSC and assumes moisture merely reduces static stability in the vortex core. An additional experiment with suspended cloud water but no substantial SSC supports the theoretical notion that reduction of static stability is sufficient to inhibit the excitation of a tilt mode. However, there is some discrepancy between theory and details of asymmetric convection in the eyewall region of the simulated hurricane. Moreover, a final experiment without moisture but with an artificially maintained secondary circulation suggests that the SSC has a nonnegligible role in reducing tilt. Diagnosis of the primary hurricane simulation further illustrates how the SSC has discernible influence over misalignment at least in the eyewall. Sensitivity of tilt dynamics to the azimuthally averaged vortex structure is briefly addressed.

A new microphysics scheme has been developed based on the prediction of bulk particle properties for a single ice-phase category, in contrast to the traditional approach of separating ice into various predefined species (e.g., cloud ice, snow, and graupel). In this paper, the new predicted particle properties (P3) scheme, described in Part I of this series, is tested in three-dimensional simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for two contrasting well-observed cases: a midlatitude squall line and winter orographic precipitation. Results are also compared with simulations using other schemes in WRF. Simulations with P3 can produce a wide variety of particle characteristics despite having only one free ice-phase category. For the squall line, it produces dense, fast-falling, hail-like ice near convective updraft cores and lower-density, slower-falling ice elsewhere. Sensitivity tests show that this is critical for simulating high precipitation rates observed along the leading edge of the storm. In contrast, schemes that represent rimed ice as graupel, with lower fall speeds than hail, produce lower peak precipitation rates and wider, less distinct, and less realistic regions of high convective reflectivity. For the orographic precipitation case, P3 produces areas of relatively fast-falling ice with characteristics of rimed snow and low- to medium-density graupel on the windward slope. This leads to less precipitation on leeward slopes and more on windward slopes compared to the other schemes that produce large amounts of snow relative to graupel (with generally the opposite for schemes with significant graupel relative to snow). Overall, the new scheme produces reasonable results for a reduced computational cost.

The time-dependent process of raindrop freezing is described in a general form, including thermodynamic effects from the accretion of cloud liquid and cloud ice. Freezing drops (FDs) larger than 80 μm (and their water mass) are represented explicitly in a cloud model with spectral bin microphysics. FDs consist of interior water covered by ice initially. Possibilities of both dry (icy surface) and wet growth (surface covered by liquid) of FDs are accounted for. Schemes of time-dependent freezing for rain (discussed in this paper) and wet growth of hail and graupel (discussed in Part I) were implemented in a spectral bin microphysics cloud model. The model predicted that accretion of liquid produces giant FDs of 0.5–2 cm in diameter, far larger than purely liquid drops can become. This growth of FDs is promoted by recirculation from the downdraft back into the updraft and by cessation of internal freezing from some accreted liquid remaining unfrozen (wet growth of FDs). Significant contents of FDs reach a height level of 7 km (−29°C) in the simulated storm. After FDs finish freezing and become hailstones, wet growth may resume. The critical diameter separating wet- and dry-growth regimes is predicted to increase with height for FDs and is more vertically uniform for hail. A sensitivity test shows that time-dependent freezing initially delays the formation of hail but later in the mature stage of the storm boosts it. Convection is invigorated. Hail and freezing drops are upwelled to higher levels, causing hail to grow to sizes up to 100% larger than without time-dependent freezing.

In Newman and Nash (2005, hereafter NN2005), the evolution of the unusual Southern Hemisphere (SH) 2002 stratospheric winter was discussed. This SH winter had a very large planetary wave-2 event in late September that resulted in an SH major stratospheric sudden warming. In particular, we stated that ‘‘This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the SH and split the Antarctic ozone hole.’’ Sehra (2014) has asked for an explanation as to why Sehra (1975, hereafter S1975) was not referenced in NN2005. Specifically, S1975 was not cited because a major stratospheric sudden warming is not evident in those results or in the discussion. S1975 documented temperature fluctuations over Molodezhnaya station (688S, 468E) in the 30–80-km altitude range using 60 rocketsondes during 1972 (16 observations of winds using falling chaff, 55–90-km altitude range). The S1975 observations provide an early documentation of in situ upperstratospheric and mesospheric temperatures and winds. For our NN2005 paper, there are two issues with respect to S1975

This paper presents analyses of the microphysical structure of cloud-top convective generating cells at temperatures between −10° and −55°C across the comma head of 11 continental cyclones, using data collected by the W-band Wyoming Cloud Radar and in situ instrumentation aboard the National Science Foundation (NSF)/NCAR C-130. A case study of one cyclone is presented, followed by statistical analyses of the entire dataset. Ice particle number concentrations averaged 1.9 times larger inside generating cells compared to outside, and derived ice water contents and median mass diameters averaged 2.2 and 1.1 times larger in cells, respectively. Supercooled water was directly measured at temperatures between −31.4° and −11.1°C, with the median and 95th-percentile liquid water content increasing from ~0.09 to 0.12 g m−3 and 0.14 to 0.28 g m−3 over this temperature range, respectively. Liquid water was present in 26% of observations within cells and 18% of observations between cells over the same temperature range, and it was nearly ubiquitous at temperatures above −16°C. The larger ice particle concentrations in cells are consistent with greater ice production in convective updrafts. The increased mass and diameter of the ice particles demonstrate that generating cells provide environments favorable for enhanced particle growth. The impact of water saturation and supercooled water in the cells was evident, with rapid particle growth by diffusion and sometimes riming apparent, in addition to aggregation. Turbulent mixing lessened the observed differences between cells and surrounding regions, with supercooled water observed within and between cells, similar habits within and between cells, and rimed particles evident even in ice-phase conditions.

By analyzing the almost-decade-long record of water vapor measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the NASA Aura satellite and by detailed diagnostic analysis of the results from state-of-the art climate model simulations, this study confirmed the conceptual picture of the interannual variation in equatorial stratospheric water vapor discussed in earlier papers (e.g., Geller et al.). The interannual anomalies in water vapor are strongly related to the dynamical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and this study presents the first QBO composite of the time–height structure of the equatorial water vapor anomalies. The anomalies display upward propagation below about 10 hPa in a manner analogous to the annual “tape recorder” effect, but at higher levels they show clear downward propagation. This study examined these variations in the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)-AGCM and in four models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that simulate realistic QBOs. Diagnostic budget analysis of the MIROC-AGCM data and comparisons among the CMIP5 model results demonstrate (i) the importance of temperature anomalies at the tropopause induced by the QBO for lower-stratospheric water vapor variations and (ii) that upper-stratospheric water vapor anomalies are largely driven by advection of the mean vertical gradient of water content by the QBO interannual fluctuations in the vertical wind.