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The variability of the phase speed of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is poorly understood. The authors assess how the phase speed of the convective signal of the MJO associates with the background states over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean. Relaxation of the coupling between tropical modes and their circulation has been previously linked to faster propagation; for example, the MJO speeds up over the eastern Pacific where its convective signal decouples from the circulation. In contrast, our results show that fast MJO events happen to exist during periods of wetter background states (>90 days) from East Africa across the Indian Ocean, whereas slow MJO is associated with dry background states. We found that fast MJO exhibits strong active and inactive phases with a structure suggesting more hierarchical convection. Results indicate that the association of the phase speed of the MJO as seen in the integrated filtered moist static energy with its tendency is stronger than the association of the phase speed as observed in the dry static energy with its tendency which is consistent with the acceleration of the MJO during wet background states. Also, our results indicate that the MJO may be faster during periods of enhanced low-level moisture because these periods have anomalously weak upper-tropospheric easterly background winds, which reduce the westward advection of the MJO by the background easterly wind, resulting in higher eastward phase speed of the MJO. The acceleration of the MJO by the background zonal wind overwhelms the deceleration associated with the moist-wave dynamics. Significance Statement: This study shows that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), which is the dominant subseasonal weather signal in the tropics, moves eastward more quickly across eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean when the region is abnormally moist. The faster propagation does not appear to result from the higher moisture but instead from encountering weaker-than-normal upper-air winds from the east that tend to occur during moist periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study, the tropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL) Kelvin waves are extracted from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) temperature data of multiple missions from January 2007 to December 2020. We focus on the variations of TIL Kelvin waves in two longitude regions, the Maritime Continent (MC; 90°–150°E) and the Pacific Ocean (PO; 170°–230°E). The results show that over both regions, ENSO leads to the opposite variations of TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitude during different ENSO phases. Specifically, during La Niña, the strong (weak) deep convection over MC (PO) leads to strengthened (weakened) static stability. With enhanced easterly (westerly) winds and strengthened (weakened) static stability, the TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes are stronger (weaker) over MC (PO). The opposite phenomenon occurs during El Niño. The zonal-mean zonal winds affect TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes by two mechanisms. First, the prevalence of easterlies (westerlies) in the upper troposphere affects the upward propagation of Kelvin waves, resulting in stronger (weaker) TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes over MC (PO). Second, the TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitude peaks about 2 months before the zero-wind line of the descending westerly QBO phase occurs, due to dissipation on the critical line. Additionally, the rapid increase of zonal-mean static stability significantly affects the annual variation of TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes. They both reach maxima during DJF and minima during JJA, which should be related to the annual cycles of temperature and ozone mixing ratio in the TIL. Significance Statement: Recent studies indicate that the Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes in the tropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL) exhibit distinct characteristics compared with those in other height levels, while the modulation mechanisms of the TIL Kelvin waves need further investigation. The present study aims to study the differences in the variabilities and the modulation factors of TIL Kelvin waves over two longitude regions. Our findings suggest that the different responses of background conditions during ENSO phases influence the spatiotemporal distribution of the TIL Kelvin waves. Besides, the zonal winds and the static stability significantly affect the temporal variations of TIL Kelvin waves. Our work fills the research gap of TIL Kelvin waves and contributes to understanding the dynamics of tropical tropopause variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) propagates eastward as a disturbance of mostly zonal wind and precipitation along the equator. The initial diagnosis of the MJO spectral peak at 40–50-day periods suggests a reduction in amplitude associated with slower MJO events that occur at lower frequencies. If events on the low-frequency side of the spectral peak continued to grow in amplitude with reduced phase speed, the spectrum would just be red. Wavelet regression analysis of slow and fast eastward-propagating MJO signals during northern winter assesses how associated moisture and wind patterns could explain why slow MJO events achieve lower amplitude in tracers of moist convection. Results suggest that slow MJO events favor a ridge anomaly over Europe, which drives cool dry air equatorward over Africa and Arabia as the active convection develops over the Indian Ocean. We hypothesize that dry air tracing back to this source, together with a longer duration of the events, leads to associated convection diminishing along the equator and instead concentrating in the Rossby gyres off the equator. Significance Statement: The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) dominates the subseasonal variability of the tropical atmosphere. This work suggests that it favors maximum convective activity in the 40–50-day period range because lower-frequency MJO signals tend to import more cool dry air from the extratropics and along the equator, thereby weakening the slower events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature observations made by the SABER infrared radiometer from January 2002 through December 2021 are used to study the structure and variability of the migrating diurnal temperature tide in the middle atmosphere (∼17–105 km). In the lower stratosphere, and in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), tidal structure is dominated by the gravest latitudinally symmetric mode, with a smaller contribution from the first antisymmetric mode; in the middle and upper stratosphere, vertically nonpropagating modes are prominent. Consistent with previous work, low-frequency variability is mainly semiannual, with maxima at the equinoxes. Quasi-biennial variability is also present and evident in low-passed time series. There are robust relationships between the semiannual and quasi-biennial variability of the tide and the semiannual and quasi-biennial tropical zonal wind oscillations, respectively, which persist throughout the 20-yr dataset. While the physical mechanisms responsible for these relationships cannot be ascertained from the observations, the present results should be useful for hypothesis testing with numerical models. It is also found that the diurnal tide breaks due to convective instability in the MLT. This is reflected in its mean vertical structure, which grows as expected for a nondissipating wave below ∼85 km, but ceases to grow at higher altitudes. Direct confirmation that dissipation is due to breaking is obtained from the potential temperature field, which shows frequent instances of reversed vertical gradient, particularly at the equinoxes. Breaking of the diurnal tide has a major impact on the zonal-mean temperature and zonal wind structure of the MLT at the equinoxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the latitude of the zonal-mean midlatitude jet play an important role for both natural variability and the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gases and other external forcing. Nevertheless, the jet response to external forcing exhibits perplexing and nonintuitive behavior. For example, external forcing that acts to strengthen the jet will also shift the jet poleward. In addition, for internal jet variability, zonal wind anomalies slowly propagate poleward over most latitudes; however, this propagation stalls somewhat at latitudes on the flanks of the mean jet. At these latitudes zonal wind anomalies are more stationary, and therefore, anomaly persistence is maximized. These same persistent latitudes are collocated with the zonal wind anomalies associated with the annular mode. Feedbacks between the zonal-mean zonal wind and the eddy momentum fluxes are responsible for the above behaviors. Here a simple mechanistic model of the effect of the zonal-mean zonal wind on the eddy momentum fluxes is developed. The model reproduces the wave–mean flow feedbacks that maintain the annular mode, cause stronger jets to shift poleward (and vice versa), and cause the poleward propagation of zonal wind anomalies. In the model, the effect of the mean flow on the eddy momentum fluxes is determined solely by the critical level and the reflecting level. The model is used to distill the essential dynamics of annular variability and change such as why stronger jets shift poleward, why high-frequency eddies are responsible for the positive feedback and why the intricate structure of propagating versus stationary zonal wind anomalies exists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transient, synoptic-scale vortices produce a large fraction of total rainfall in most monsoon regions and are often associated with extreme precipitation. However, the mechanism of their amplification remains a topic of active research. For monsoon depressions, which are the most prominent synoptic-scale vortex in the Asian–Australian monsoon, recent work has suggested that meridional gradients in zonal wind in the vortex environment may produce growth through barotropic instability, while meridional gradients in environmental humidity have also been proposed to cause amplification through coupling with precipitating convection. Here, a two-dimensional shallow water model on a sphere with parameterized precipitation is used to examine the relative role played by these two environmental gradients. By systematically varying the meridional moisture gradient and meridional wind shear for both weak, quasi-linear waves and finite-amplitude isolated vortices, we show that rotational winds in the initial vortex are amplified most strongly by meridional shear of the environmental zonal wind, while vortex precipitation rates are most sensitive to environmental moisture gradients. The growth rate in the presence of both gradients is less than the sum of growth rates in the presence of isolated gradients, as the phase relation between moisture and vorticity anomalies becomes distorted with increasing shear. These results suggest that background meridional gradients in both zonal wind and environmental humidity can contribute to the amplification of vortices to monsoon depression strength, but with some degree of decoupling of the dry rotational flow and the moist convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have focused on the long-term positive feedback between annular mode zonal wind (U) perturbations and the eddy momentum fluxes (M). Lagged correlation analysis between U and M anomalies, however, shows that a transient period of negative eddy forcing follows the peak in zonal wind anomalies. This negative forcing is more ubiquitous than the positive feedback because it occurs for all U EOFs not just EOF1. It has been hypothesized that this response is either 1) an intrinsic feature of the eddies independent of the U or 2) caused by U-induced changes in Rossby wave reflection. Here it is shown that the response can be reproduced in a GCM by imposing a rapid change in U; therefore, mechanism 1 does not appear to be relevant. Furthermore, the transient response can be generated in a model when there are no turning latitudes; therefore, mechanism 2 does not appear to be relevant. Instead it is shown that the transient response is due to the adjustment of a preexisting eddy field to a change in the background wind. This transient effect is negative when the meridional scale of the U change is small enough compared to the waves, and vice versa. The sign of the initial response depends on the relative size of advection by U versus retrogression by the background vorticity gradient on the meridional tilt of the Rossby waves. Finally, it is shown that this transient response has a large damping effect on U variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the environmental background wind on the diurnal cycle near tropical islands is examined in observations and an idealized model. Luzon Island in the northern Philippines is used as an observational test case. Composite diurnal cycles of CMORPH precipitation are constructed based on an index derived from the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of ERA5 zonal wind profiles. A strong precipitation diurnal cycle and pronounced offshore propagation in the leeward direction tends to occur on days with a weak, offshore prevailing wind. Strong background winds, particularly in the onshore direction, are associated with a suppressed diurnal cycle. Idealized high-resolution 2D Cloud Model 1 (CM1) simulations test the dependence of the diurnal cycle on environmental wind speed and direction by nudging the model base state toward composite profiles derived from the reanalysis zonal wind index. These simulations can qualitatively replicate the observed development, strength, and offshore propagation of diurnally generated convection under varying wind regimes. Under strong background winds, the land–sea contrast is reduced, which leads to a substantial reduction in the strength of the sea-breeze circulation and precipitation diurnal cycle. Weak offshore prevailing winds favor a strong diurnal cycle and offshore leeward propagation, with the direction of propagation highly sensitive to the background wind in the lower free troposphere. Offshore propagation speed appears consistent with density current theory rather than a direct coupling to a single gravity wave mode, though gravity waves may contribute to a destabilization of the offshore environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent observations have indicated significant modulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by the phase of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during boreal winter. Composites of the MJO show that upper-tropospheric ice cloud fraction and water vapor anomalies are generally collocated, and that an eastward tilt with height in cloud fraction exists. Through radiative transfer calculations, it is shown that ice clouds have a stronger tropospheric radiative forcing than do water vapor anomalies, highlighting the importance of incorporating upper-tropospheric–lower-stratospheric processes into simple models of the MJO. The coupled troposphere–stratosphere linear model previously developed by the authors is extended by including a mean wind in the stratosphere and a prognostic equation for cirrus clouds, which are forced dynamically and allowed to modulate tropospheric radiative cooling, similar to the effect of tropospheric water vapor in previous formulations. Under these modifications, the model still produces a slow, eastward-propagating mode that resembles the MJO. The sign of zonal mean wind in the stratosphere is shown to control both the upward wave propagation and tropospheric vertical structure of the mode. Under varying stratospheric wind and interactive cirrus cloud radiation, the MJO-like mode has weaker growth rates under stratospheric westerlies than easterlies, consistent with the observed MJO–QBO relationship. These results are directly attributable to an enhanced barotropic mode under QBO easterlies. It is also shown that differential zonal advection of cirrus clouds leads to weaker growth rates under stratospheric westerlies than easterlies. Implications and limitations of the linear theory are discussed. Significance Statement: Recent observations have shown that the strength of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), a global-scale envelope of wind and rain that slowly moves eastward in the tropics and dominates global-weather variations on time scales of around a month, is strongly influenced by the direction of the winds in the lower stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that lies above where weather occurs. So far, modeling studies have been unable to reproduce this connection in global climate models. The purpose of this study is to investigate the mechanisms through which the stratosphere can modulate the MJO, by using simple theoretical models. In particular, we point to the role that ice clouds high in the atmosphere play in influencing the MJO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parameterizations of subgrid-scale gravity waves (GWs) in atmospheric models commonly involve the description of the dissipation of GWs. Where they dissipate, GWs have an increased effect on the large-scale flow. Instabilities that trigger wave breaking are an important starting point for the route to dissipation. Possible destabilizing mechanisms are numerous, but the classical vertical static instability is still regarded as a key indicator for the disposition to wave breaking. In this work, we investigate how the horizontal variations associated with a GW could alter the criterion for static instability. To this end, we use an extension of the common parcel displacement method. This three-dimensional static stability analysis predicts a significantly larger range of instability than does the vertical static stability analysis. In this case, the Lindzen-type saturation adjustment to a state of marginal stability is perhaps a less suitable ansatz for the parameterization of the GW breaking. To develop a possible ansatz for the GW dissipation due to three-dimensional instability, we apply the methods of irreversible thermodynamics, which are embedded in the Gibbs formalism of dynamics. In this way, the parameterization does not only satisfy the second law of thermodynamics, but it can also be made consistent with the conservation of energy and further (non-)conservation principles. We develop the parameterization for a discrete spectrum of GW packets. Offline computations of GW drag and dissipative heating rates are performed for two vertical profiles of zonal wind and temperature for summer and winter conditions from CIRA data. The results are compared to benchmarks from the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme stratospheric vortex states are often associated with extreme heat flux and upward wave propagation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere; however, the factors that dictate whether an upward-directed wave in the troposphere will reach the bottom of the vortex versus being reflected back to the troposphere are not fully understood. Following Charney and Drazin, an analytical quasigeostrophic planetary-scale model is used to examine the role of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in wave propagation and reflection. The model consists of three different layers: troposphere, TIL, and stratosphere. It is shown that a larger buoyancy frequency in the TIL leads to weaker upward transmission to the stratosphere and enhanced reflection back to the troposphere, and thus reflection of wave packets is sensitive not just to the zonal wind but also to the TIL's buoyancy frequency. The vertical–zonal cross section of a wave packet for a more prominent TIL in the analytical model is similar to the corresponding wave packet for observational events in which the wave amplitude decays rapidly just above the tropopause. Similarly, a less prominent TIL both in the model and in reanalysis data is associated with enhanced wave transmission and a weak change in wave phase above the tropopause. These results imply that models with a poor representation of the TIL will suffer from a bias in both the strength and phase of waves that transit the tropopause region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annular mode, the leading pattern of low-frequency variability in the extratropics, owes its temporal persistence to a positive feedback between eddy momentum fluxes and the background zonal wind anomalies associated with the annular mode itself. The mechanisms by which the zonal wind anomalies impact the eddy momentum fluxes fall into two families: 1) baroclinic mechanisms: changes in the amount and location of wave activity generated via baroclinic instability cause the changes in eddy momentum fluxes and 2) barotropic mechanisms: the zonal wind anomalies impact the eddy momentum fluxes directly via critical levels, turning latitudes, and the refraction of meridionally propagating waves. This paper takes a critical look at various methodologies that conclude that baroclinic feedbacks are dominant by developing multiple independent estimates of the relative role of baroclinic versus barotropic processes. All methods conclude that barotropic mechanisms are most important; however, baroclinic mechanisms are not negligible. Additional experiments with the baroclinic feedback turned off (via manipulations to the vertical friction profile) also suggest that barotropic feedbacks are dominant. The methods for estimating the feedbacks are 1) Rossby wave chromatography, 2) forced manipulations of the vertical structure of EOF1 using linear response functions, and 3) quantitatively inferring the meridional wave propagation from the mean wave activity budget and then using this to analyze the wave activity response to anomalies. The last method is also applied to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere reanalysis, and similar conclusions about the feedbacks are reached. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative roles of upper- and lower-level thermal forcing in shifting the eddy-driven jet are investigated using a multilevel nonlinear quasigeostrophic channel model. The numerical experiments show that the upper-level thermal forcing is more efficient in shifting the eddy-driven jet. The finite-amplitude wave activity diagnostics of numerical results show that the dominance of the upper-level thermal forcing over the lower-level thermal forcing can be understood from their different influence on eddy generation and dissipation that affects the jet shift. The upper-level thermal forcing shifts the jet primarily by affecting the baroclinic generation of eddies. The lower-level thermal forcing influences the jet mainly by affecting the wave breaking and dissipation. The former eddy response turns out to be more efficient for the thermal forcing to shift the eddy-driven jet. Furthermore, two quantitative relationships based on the imposed thermal forcing are proposed to quantify the response of both eddy generation and eddy dissipation, and thus to help predict the shift of eddy-driven jet in response to the vertically nonuniform thermal forcing. By conducting the overriding experiments in which the response of barotropic zonal wind is locked in the model and a multiwavenumber theory in which the eddy diffusivity is decomposed to contributions from eddies and mean flow, we find that the eddy generation response is sensitive to the vertical structure of the thermal forcing and can be quantified by the imposed temperature gradient in the upper troposphere. In contrast, the response of eddy diffusivity is almost vertically independent of the imposed forcing, and can be quantified by the imposed vertically averaged thermal wind. Significance Statement: Climate models predict enhanced warming over tropical upper troposphere and Arctic surface in response to greenhouse gas increases, which has competing effects on the latitudinal shift of eddy-driven jet and thus requires a better understanding of the relative roles of upper- and lower-tropospheric thermal forcing for future climate projection. We make a new quantitative comparison on responses of eddy generation and dissipation that sustain the jet shift and relate them to the imposed thermal forcing. This approach extends the fundamental eddy closure topic from vertically uniform situation to vertically nonuniform forcing. These quantitative relationships are also helpful for better understanding and predicting the jet and storm-track variabilities under other forms of thermal forcing (e.g., SST front, aerosols, latent heat release). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamical mechanism by which the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) might influence the temperature anomaly, associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), in the equatorial upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is examined by conducting a series of initial-value experiments using a dry primitive equation model. The observed temperature response to the MJO convection becomes colder and more in phase with the convection during easterly QBO (EQBO) than westerly QBO (WQBO) phases. This QBO-dependent MJO temperature anomaly in the UTLS is qualitatively reproduced by model experiments in which EQBO or WQBO background state is artificially imposed above 250 hPa while leaving the troposphere unaltered. As in the observations, the localized cold anomaly in the UTLS becomes strengthened and steepened with EQBO-like background state than WQBO-like one. It turns out that the QBO zonal wind, instead of temperature, plays a major role in determining the localized UTLS temperature anomaly by modulating wave energy dispersion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite observations of middle-atmosphere temperature are used to investigate the short-term global response to planetary wave activity in the winter stratosphere. The focus is on the relation between variations in the winter and summer hemispheres. The analysis uses observations from Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) for 2002–21 and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) for 2004–21, and reanalysis temperatures and winds from MERRA-2 for 2002–21. We calculate temporal correlations of the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence in the winter stratosphere with global temperature. Results show a robust perturbation extending to midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. An increase in wave forcing is followed by a decrease in temperatures over the depth of the stratosphere in the SH, peaking at a lag of 3 days. Summer mesospheric temperature perturbations of the opposite sign are seen in many winters. Comparable signals in the NH summer middle-atmosphere are present during some SH winters but are weaker and less consistent than those in the SH during NH winter. A diagnostic evaluation of the patterns of correlation, the mesospheric zonal winds, and the stability criteria suggests that the temperature perturbations in the midlatitude summer mesosphere are more closely associated with the summer stratosphere directly below than with the wave activity in the winter stratosphere. This suggests that the interhemispheric coupling in the stratosphere is driving or contributing to the coupling between the winter stratosphere and the summer mesosphere that has been reported in several investigations. Significance Statement: There are many instances in which one part of the atmosphere is found to regularly respond to perturbations occurring in a distant region. In this study, we use observations to investigate one such pattern: temperature changes at high altitude (60–100 km) in the summer that follow dynamical changes near the winter pole at 40–60 km. Such analysis is useful to understand which physical processes contribute to the global connectivity and variability of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational studies have shown the link between convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) and eastward-propagating rainfall anomalies. We explore the mechanisms in which CCKWs modulate the propagation of precipitation from west to east over equatorial Africa. We examine a multiyear state-of-the-art Africa-wide climate simulation from a convection-permitting model (CP4A) along with a parameterized global driving-model simulation (G25) and evaluate both against observations (TRMM) and ERA-Interim (ERA-I), with a focus on precipitation and Kelvin wave activity. We show that the two important related processes through which CCKWs influence the propagation of convection and precipitation from west to east across equatorial Africa are 1) low-level westerly wind anomalies that lead to increased low-level convergence, and 2) westerly moisture flux anomalies that amplify the lower- to midtropospheric specific humidity. We identify Kelvin wave activity using zonal wind and geopotential height. Using lagged composite analysis, we show that modeled precipitation over equatorial Africa can capture the eastward-propagating precipitation signal that is associated with CCKWs. Composite analysis on strong (high-amplitude) CCKWs shows that both CP4A and G25 capture the connection between the eastward-propagating precipitation anomalies and CCKWs. In comparison to TRMM, however, the precipitation signal is weaker in G25, while CP4A has a more realistic signal. Results show that both CP4A and G25 generally simulate the key horizontal structure of CCKWs, with anomalous low-level westerlies in phase with positive precipitation anomalies. These findings suggest that for operational forecasting, it is important to monitor the day-to-day Kelvin wave activity across equatorial Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study formulates three-dimensional (3D) residual flow, treating both stationary and transient waves. The zonal and meridional momentum equations contain four terms: the geostrophic wind tendency, Coriolis force for the residual horizontal flow, product of the geostrophic wind and potential vorticity other than the constant planetary vorticity, and friction. The thermodynamic equation contains three terms: the potential temperature tendency, advection of the basic potential temperature by the residual vertical flow, and diabatic heating. The zonal mean of the 3D residual flow equals the time mean of the residual flow of the transformed Eulerian-mean equations. The new residual flow is the sum of that derived by Plumb for transient waves and the quadratic terms of the time-mean fields, which correspond approximately to the Stokes correction due to stationary waves. The 3D residual flow and momentum equations are symmetric in the zonal and meridional directions, in contrast with those formulated by Kinoshita et al., which treat the time-mean zonal-mean zonal wind as the basic wind. The newly derived formulas are applied to the climatology of the 3D structure of the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere in December–February, the residual flows are directed inward toward the polar vortex strongly over east Siberia, where the downward flow is maximized, and weakly over the Atlantic; meanwhile, they are directed outward from the vortex over North America and Europe. A longitudinal dependence of the poleward flow is also observed in the Southern Hemisphere in June–August. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linearized wave solutions on the equatorial beta plane are examined in the presence of a background meridional moisture gradient. Of interest is a slow, eastward-propagating n = 1 mode that is unstable at planetary scales and only exists for a small range of zonal wavenumbers (≲ 6). The mode dispersion curve appears as an eastward extension of the westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave solution. This mode is therefore termed the eastward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave (ERW). The zonal wavenumber-2 ERW horizontal structure consists of a low-level equatorial convergence center flanked by quadrupole off-equatorial gyres, and resembles the horizontal structure of the observed MJO. An analytic, leading-order dispersion relationship for the ERW shows that meridional moisture advection imparts eastward propagation, and that the smallness of a gross moist stability–like parameter contributes to the slow phase speed. The ERW is unstable near planetary scales when low-level easterlies moisten the column. This moistening could come from either zonal moisture advection or surface fluxes or a combination thereof. When westerlies instead moisten the column, the ERW is damped and the westward-propagating long Rossby wave is unstable. The ERW does not exist when the meridional moisture gradient is too weak. A moist static energy budget analysis shows that the ERW scale selection is partly due to finite-time-scale convective adjustment and less effective zonal wind–induced moistening at smaller scales. Similarities in the phase speed, preferred scale, and horizontal structure suggest that the ERW is a beta-plane analog of the MJO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large fraction of tropical cyclones (TCs) are generated near the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and barotropic instability of the related wind shear has been shown to be an important generation mechanism. The latitudinal position of the ITCZ shifts seasonally and may shift poleward in response to global warming. Aquaplanet GCM simulations have shown TC-generation frequency to vary with position of the ITCZ. These results, and that moisture plays an essential role in the dynamics, motivate the present study on the growth rates of barotropic instability in ITCZ-like zonal wind profiles. Base-state zonal wind profiles are generated by applying a prescribed forcing (representing zonally averaged latent heat release in the ITCZ) to a shallow-water model. Shifting the latitudinal position of the forcing alters these profiles, with a poleward shift leading to enhanced barotropic instability. Next, an examination of how latent release impacts the barotropic breakdown of these profiles is considered. To do this, moisture is explicitly represented using a tracer variable. Upon supersaturation, precipitation occurs and the related latent heat release is parameterized as a mass transfer out of the dynamically active layer. Whether moisture serves to enhance or reduce barotropic growth rates is found to depend on how saturation humidity is represented. In particular, taking it to be constant or a function of the layer thickness (related to temperature) leads to a reduction, whereas taking it to be a specified function of latitude leads to an enhancement. Simple arguments are given to support the idea that moisture effects should lead to a reduction in the moist shallow-water model and that a poleward shift of the ITCZ should lead to an enhancement of barotropic instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of midlatitude equilibrated eddy length scale to static stability has long been questioned but not investigated in well-controlled experiments with unchanged mean zonal wind and meridional temperature gradient. With iterative use of the linear response function of an idealized dry atmosphere, we obtain a time-invariant and zonally uniform forcing to decrease the near-surface temperature by over 2 K while keeping the change in zonal wind negligible (within 0.2 m s−1). In such experiments of increased static stability, energy-containing zonal scale decreases by 3%–4%, which matches with Rhines scale decrease near the jet core. Changes in Rossby radius (+2%), maximum baroclinic growth scale (−1%), and Kuo scale (0%) fail to match this change in zonal scale. These findings and well-controlled experiments help with better understanding of eddy–mean flow interactions and hence the midlatitude circulation and its response to climate change. Significance Statement: In the midlatitude atmosphere, eddy size is the length scale of the prevalent weather systems and has important implications for midlatitude temperature variability and jet shift. We want to understand how it changes with increased static stability (a measure of vertical temperature gradient). We manage to isolate an increase in static stability, without changing the north–south temperature gradient. Our idealized and well-controlled simulation shows that eddy size decreases with increased static stability. This decrease matches quantitatively with a nonlinear scaling argument, but does not support linear scaling arguments involving instability of vertical wind shear or horizontal wind shear. This helps with theoretical understanding of eddy–mean flow interactions and hence the midlatitude circulation and its response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global Hovmöller diagram of column water vapor (CWV) at 30°N from daily ERA-Interim data shows seasonally migrating North Pacific/Atlantic quasi-stationary atmospheric rivers (QSARs) located in the eastern Pacific/Atlantic in winter and propagate to the western Pacific/Atlantic in summer. Simplified general circulation model (GCM) experiments produce QSAR-like features if the boundary conditions include 1) the sea surface temperature contrast from the tropical warm pool–cold tongue and 2) topographic contrast similar to the Tibetan Plateau. Simulated QSARs form downstream of topographic contrast during winter and coincide with it in summer. Two models of baroclinic instability demonstrate that QSARs coincide with the location where the most unstable mode phase speed equals that of the upper-level zonal winds. A consistent interpretation is that the waves become quasi stationary at this location and break. The location of quasi stationarity migrates from the eastern Pacific/Atlantic in the winter, when upper-level winds are strong and extended over the basin, to the western Pacific/Atlantic when winds are weak and contracted. Low-level wind convergence and moist static energy coincide with QSARs, and since the former two are essential ingredients to monsoon formation, this implies an important role for QSARs in monsoon onset. This connection opens a new window into the dynamics of subtropical monsoon extensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of global orography on Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate is revisited using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6). A suite of experiments explores the roles of both resolved orography and the parameterized effects of unresolved orographic drag (hereafter parameterized orography), including gravity waves and boundary layer turbulence. Including orography reduces the extratropical tropospheric and stratospheric zonal mean zonal wind U ¯ by up to 80%; this is substantially greater than previous estimates. Ultimately, parameterized orography accounts for 60%–80% of this reduction; however, away from the surface most of the forcing of U ¯ by parameterized orography is accomplished by resolved planetary waves. We propose that a catalytic wave–mean-flow positive feedback in the stratosphere makes the stratospheric flow particularly sensitive to parameterized orography. Orography and land–sea contrast contribute approximately equally to the strength of the midlatitude stationary waves in the free troposphere, although orography is the dominant cause of the strength of the Siberian high and Aleutian low at the surface and of the position of the Icelandic low. We argue that precisely quantifying the role of orography on the observed stationary waves is an almost intractable problem, and in particular should not be approached with linear stationary wave models in which U ¯ is prescribed. We show that orography has less impact on stationary waves, and therefore on U ¯ , on a backward-rotating Earth. Last, we show that atmospheric meridional heat transport shows remarkable constancy across our simulations, despite vastly different climates and stationary wave strengths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sea surface temperature (SST) distribution can modulate the development of extratropical cyclones through sensible and latent heat fluxes. However, the direct and indirect effects of these surface fluxes, and thus the SST, are still not well understood. This study tackles this problem using idealized channel simulations of moist baroclinic development under the influence of surface fluxes. The model is initialized with a zonal wind field resembling the midlatitude jet and a different SST distribution for each experiment, where the absolute SST, the SST gradient, and the meridional position of the SST front are varied. The surface latent heat flux associated with the absolute SST plays a key role in enhancing the moist baroclinic development, while the sensible heat fluxes associated with the SST gradient play a minor role that can be detrimental for the development of the cyclone. The additional moisture provided by the latent heat fluxes originates from about 1000 km ahead of the cyclone a day prior to the time of the most rapid deepening. When the SST in this region is higher than 16°C, the additional latent heat is conducive for explosive cyclone development. For SSTs above 20°C, the cyclones feature characteristics of hybrid cyclones with latent heat release close to their core, maintaining their intensity for a longer period due to continuous and extensive moisture supply from the surface. A high absolute SST with a weak SST gradient, however, can lead to a delay of the deepening stage, because of unorganized convection at early stages reducing environmental baroclinicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is an alternating, descending pattern of zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere with a period averaging 28 months. The QBO was disrupted in 2016, and arguably again in 2020, by the formation of an anomalous easterly shear zone, and unprecedented stagnation and ascent of shear zones aloft. Several mechanisms have been implicated in causing the 2016 disruption, most notably triggering by horizontal eddy momentum flux divergence, but also anomalous upwelling and wave stress. In this paper, the 1D theory of the QBO is used to show how seemingly disparate features of disruptions follow directly from the dynamics of the QBO response to triggering. The perturbed QBO is interpreted using a heuristic version of the 1D model, which establishes that 1) stagnation of shear zones aloft resulted from wave dissipation in the shear zone formed by the triggering, and 2) ascent of shear zones aloft resulted from climatological upwelling advecting the stagnant shear zones. Obstacles remain in the theory of triggering. In the 1D theory, the phasing of the triggering is key to determining the response, but the dependence on magnitude is less steep. Yet in MERRA-2, there are triggering events only 20% weaker than the 2016 triggering and equal to the 2020 triggering that did not lead to disruptions. Complicating matters further, MERRA-2 has record-large analysis tendencies during the 2016 disruption, reducing confidence in the resolved momentum budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the zonal-mean large-scale extratropical circulation is often studied using individual modes obtained from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses. The prevailing reduced-order model of the leading EOF (EOF1) of zonal-mean zonal wind, called the annular mode, consists of an eddy–mean flow interaction mechanism that results in a positive feedback of EOF1 onto itself. However, a few studies have pointed out that under some circumstances in observations and GCMs, strong couplings exist between EOF1 and EOF2 at some lag times, resulting in decaying-oscillatory, or propagating, annular modes. Here, we introduce a reduced-order model for coupled EOF1 and EOF2 that accounts for potential cross-EOF eddy–zonal flow feedbacks. Using the analytical solution of this model, we derive conditions for the existence of the propagating regime based on the feedback strengths. Using this model, and idealized GCMs and stochastic prototypes, we show that cross-EOF feedbacks play an important role in controlling the persistence of the annular modes by setting the frequency of the oscillation. We find that stronger cross-EOF feedbacks lead to less persistent annular modes. Applying the coupled-EOF model to the Southern Hemisphere reanalysis data shows the existence of strong cross-EOF feedbacks. The results highlight the importance of considering the coupling of EOFs and cross-EOF feedbacks to fully understand the natural and forced variability of the zonal-mean large-scale circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of gravity waves (GWs) in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurred in January 2009 (SSW09) is investigated using the MERRA-2 dataset. Nearly 2 weeks prior to the central date (lag 5 0), at which the zonal-mean zonal wind at 10 hPa and 608N first becomes negative, westward GW drag (GWD) is significantly enhanced in the lower mesosphere and stratosphere. At 5 days before lag 5 0, planetary waves (PWs) of zonal wavenumber 2 (ZWN-2) in the stratosphere are enhanced, while PWs of ZWN-1 are weakened, which are evident from the amplitudes of the PWs and their Eliassen-Palm flux divergence (EPD). To examine the relationship between PWs and GWs, a nonconservative GWD (NCGWD) source term of the linearized quasigeostrophic potential vorticity equation is considered. A ZWN-2 pattern of the NCGWD forcing is developed around z 5 55-60 km with a secondary peak around z 5 40 km just before the PWs of ZWN-2 in the stratosphere began to enhance. Asignificant positive correlation between theNCGWDforcing in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (USLM; 0.3-0.1 hPa in the present data) and the PWs of ZWN-2 in the stratosphere (5-1 hPa) exists. This result demonstrates that the amplification of the PWs of ZWN-2 in the stratosphere before the onset of SSW09 is likely related to the generation of PWs by GWD in the USLM, which is revealed by the enhanced downward-propagating PWs of ZWN-2 into the stratosphere from abo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-vertical-resolution temperature measurements from GPS radio occultation data show frequent upper-tropospheric inversions over the equatorial Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon season. Each year, around 30% of profiles in this region have temperature inversions near 15 km during the monsoon season, peaking during July-September. This work describes the space-time behavior of these inversions, and their links to transient deep convection. The Indian Ocean inversions occur episodically several times each summer, with a time scale of 1-2 weeks, and are quasi stationary or slowly eastward moving. Strong inversions are characterized by cold anomalies in the upper-troposphere (12-15 km), warm anomalies in the tropopause layer (16-18 km), and strong zonal wind anomalies that are coherent with temperature anomalies. Temperature and wind anomalies are centered over the equator and show a characteristic eastward phase tilt with height with a vertical wavelength near 5 km, consistent with aKelvin wave structure. Composites of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) show that strong inversions are linked to enhanced deep convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean, preceding the inversions by; 2-6 days. These characteristics suggest that the inversions are linked to convectively forced Kelvin waves, which are Doppler shifted by the easterly monsoonal winds such that they remain quasi stationary in the equatorial Indian Ocean. These large-scale waves influence circulation on the equatorial side of the Indian monsoon anticyclone; they may provide a positive feedback to the underlying convection, and are possibly linked with regions of shear-induced turbulence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Axisymmetric Hadley cell theory has traditionally assumed that the tropopause height (Ht) is uniform and unchanged from its radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) value by the cells' emergence. Recent studies suggest that the tropopause temperature (Tt), not height, is nearly invariant in RCE, which would require appreciable meridional variations in Ht. Here, we derive modified expressions of axisymmetric theory by assuming a fixed Tt and compare the results to their fixed-Ht counterparts. If Tt and the depth-averaged lapse rate are meridionally uniform, then at each latitude Ht varies linearly with the local surface temperature, altering the diagnosed gradient-balanced zonal wind at the tropopause appreciably (up to tens of meters per second) but the minimal Hadley cell extent predicted by Hide's theorem only weakly (≲1°) under standard annual-mean and solsticial forcings. A uniform Tt alters the thermal field required to generate an angular-momentum-conserving Hadley circulation, but these changes and the resulting changes to the equal-area model solutions for the cell edges again are modest (<10%). In numerical simulations of latitude-by-latitude RCE under annual-mean forcing using a single-column model, assuming a uniform Tt is reasonably accurate up to the midlatitudes, and the Hide's theorem metrics are again qualitatively insensitive to the tropopause definition. However imperfectly axisymmetric theory portrays the Hadley cells in Earth's macroturbulent atmosphere, evidently its treatment of the tropopause is not an important error source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of wave–mean flow interaction in the onset and suddenness of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). Evidence is presented that SSWs are, on average, a threshold behavior of finite-amplitude Rossby waves arising from the competition between an increasing wave activity A and a decreasing zonal-mean zonal wind u ¯ . The competition puts a limit to the wave activity flux that a stationary Rossby wave can transmit upward. A rapid, spontaneous vortex breakdown occurs once the upwelling wave activity flux reaches the limit, or equivalently, once u ¯ drops below a certain fraction of uREF, a wave-free, reference-state wind inverted from the zonalized quasigeostrophic potential vorticity. This fraction is 0.5 in theory and about 0.3 in reanalyses. We propose r ≡ u ¯ / u REF as a local, instantaneous measure of the proximity to vortex breakdown (i.e., preconditioning). The ratio r generally stays above the threshold during strong-vortex winters until a pronounced final warming, whereas during weak-vortex winters it approaches the threshold early in the season, culminating in a precipitous drop in midwinter as SSWs form. The essence of the threshold behavior is captured by a semiempirical 1D model of SSWs, similar to the "traffic jam" model of Nakamura and Huang for atmospheric blocking. This model predicts salient features of SSWs including rapid vortex breakdown and downward migration of the wave activity/zonal wind anomalies, with analytical expressions for the respective time scales. The model's response to a variety of transient wave forcing and damping is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed zonal-mean extratropical storm tracks exhibit distinct hemispheric seasonality. Previously, the moist static energy (MSE) framework was used diagnostically to show that shortwave absorption (insolation) dominates seasonality but surface heat fluxes damp seasonality in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and amplify it in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Here we establish the causal role of surface fluxes (ocean energy storage) by varying the mixed layer depth d in zonally symmetric 1) slab-ocean aquaplanet simulations with zero ocean energy transport and 2) energy balance model (EBM) simulations. Using a scaling analysis we define a critical mixed layer depth dc and hypothesize 1) large mixed layer depths (d > dc) produce surface heat fluxes that are out of phase with shortwave absorption resulting in small storm track seasonality and 2) small mixed layer depths (d < dc) produce surface heat fluxes that are in phase with shortwave absorption resulting in large storm track seasonality. The aquaplanet simulations confirm the large mixed layer depth hypothesis and yield a useful idealization of the SH storm track. However, the small mixed layer depth hypothesis fails to account for the large contribution of the Ferrel cell and atmospheric storage. The small mixed layer limit does not yield a useful idealization of the NH storm track because the seasonality of the Ferrel cell contribution is opposite to the stationary eddy contribution in the NH. Varying the mixed layer depth in an EBM qualitatively supports the aquaplanet results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the impact of winter Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) decline over Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, and Labrador Sea (BDL) on Greenland blocking (GB) is first examined. It is found that the GB has a longer duration, a more notable westward movement, and a larger zonal scale in the low SIC winter than in the high SIC winter. In particular, the decay of GB may become slower than its growth in the low SIC winter, but the reverse is seen in the high SIC winter. The GB in the low SIC winter can have a more important impact on cold anomalies over North American midlatitudes than in the high SIC winter because of its slower decay and stronger retrogression. The influence of large BDL SIC loss on the GB mainly through reduced meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) related to reduced zonal winds over the North Atlantic mid- to high latitudes (NAMH) due to BDL warming is further examined by using the nonlinear phase speed and energy dispersion speed formula of blocking based on a nonlinear wave packet theory of atmospheric blocking. In this theory, the preexisting synoptic-scale eddies rather than the eddy straining or deformation is important for the blocking intensification and maintenance, which contradicts the eddy straining theory of Shutts. It is revealed from this theoretical model that under weaker NAMH zonal wind conditions the energy dispersion speed of GB may become smaller due to weaker PVy during its decaying phase than during the blocking growing phase, in addition to the GB having larger negative phase speed and stronger nonlinearity. The opposite is true when the PVy is larger. Thus, under a large SIC loss condition the GB shows notable retrogression, large zonal scales, and a long lifetime, which has a slower decay than its growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations of the weather over the South Island of New Zealand on 28 July 2014 reveal unusual wave activity in the stratosphere. A series of short-wavelength perturbations resembling trapped lee waves were located downstream of the topography, but these waves were in the stratosphere, and their crests were oriented north–south, in contrast to both the northeast–southwest orientation of the spine of the Southern Alps and the crests of trapped waves present in the lower troposphere. Vertical cross sections through these waves show a nodal structure consistent with that of a higher-order trapped-wave mode. Eigenmode solutions to the vertical structure equation for two-dimensional, linear, Boussinesq waves were obtained for a horizontally homogeneous sounding representative of the 28 July case. These solutions include higher-order modes having large amplitude in the stratosphere that are supported by just the zonal wind component. Two of these higher-order modes correspond to trapped waves that develop in an idealized numerical simulation of the 28 July 2014 case. These higher-order modes are trapped by very strong westerly winds in the midstratosphere and are triggered by north–south-oriented features in the subrange-scale topography. In contrast, the stratospheric cross-mountain wind component is too weak to trap similar high-order modes with crest-parallel orientation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational studies have shown that, on average, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) exhibits a faster phase progression and shorter period during El Niño than during La Niña. Here, the possible mechanism of QBO modulation associated with ENSO is investigated using the MIROC-AGCM with T106 (;1.1258) horizontal resolution. The MIROC-AGCM simulates QBO-like oscillations without any nonorographic gravity wave parameterizations. A 100-yr integration was conducted during which annually repeating sea surface temperatures based on the composite observed El Niño conditions were imposed.Asimilar 100-yr La Niña integration was also conducted. The MIROC-AGCM simulates realistic differences between El Niño and La Niña, notably shorter QBO periods, a weaker Walker circulation, and more equatorial precipitation during El Niño than during La Niña. Near the equator, vertical wave fluxes of zonal momentum in the uppermost troposphere are larger and the stratospheric QBOforcing due to interaction of the mean flow with resolved gravity waves (particularly for zonal wavenumber $43) is much larger during El Niño. The tropical upwelling associated with the Brewer--Dobson circulation is also stronger in the El Niño simulation. The effects of the enhanced tropical upwelling during El Niño are evidently overcome by enhanced wave driving, resulting in the shorter QBO period. The integrations were repeated with another model version (MIROC-ECM with T42 horizontal resolution) that employs a parameterization of nonorographic gravity waves in order to simulate a QBO. In the MIROC-ECM the average QBO periods are nearly identical in the El Niño and La Niña simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric convection exhibits distinct spatiotemporal variability at different latitudes. A good understanding of the effects of rotation on the multiscale organization of convection from the mesoscale to synoptic scale to planetary scale is still lacking. Here cloud-resolving simulations with fixed surface fluxes and radiative cooling are implemented with constant rotation in a two-dimensional (2D) planetary domain to simulate multiscale organization of convection from the tropics to midlatitudes. All scenarios are divided into three rotation regimes (weak, order-one, and strong) to represent the idealized ITCZ region (0°-6°N), the Indian monsoon region (6°-20°N), and the midlatitude region (20°-45°N), respectively. In each rotation regime, a multiscale asymptotic model is derived systematically and used as a diagnostic framework for energy budget analysis. The results show that planetary-scale organization of convection only arises in the weak rotation regime, while synoptic-scale organization dominates (vanishes) in the order-one (strong) rotation regime. The depletion of planetary-scale organization of convection as the magnitude of rotation increases is attributed to the reduced planetary kinetic energy of zonal winds, mainly due to the decreasing acceleration effect by eddy zonal momentum transfer from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the increasing deceleration effect by the Coriolis force. Similarly, the maintenance of synoptic-scale organization is related to the acceleration effect by MCSs. Such decreasing acceleration effects by MCA on both planetary and synoptic scales are further attributed to less favorable conditions for convection provided by weaker background vertical shear of the zonal winds, resulting from the increasing magnitude of rotation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A methodology is presented for objectively optimizing nonorographic gravity wave source parameters to minimize forecast error for target regions and forecast lead times. In this study, we employ a high-altitude version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM-HA) to ascertain the forcing needed to minimize hindcast errors in the equatorial lower stratospheric zonal-mean zonal winds in order to improve forecasts of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) over seasonal time scales. Because subgrid-scale wave effects play a large role in driving the QBO, this method leverages the nonorographic gravity wave drag (GWD) parameterization scheme to provide the necessary forcing. To better constrain the GWD source parameters, we utilize ensembles of NAVGEM-HA hindcasts over the 2014–16 period with perturbed source parameters and develop a cost function to minimize errors in the equatorial lower stratosphere compared to analysis. Thus, we may determine the set of GWD source parameters that yields a forecast state that most closely agrees with observed QBO winds over each optimization time interval. Results show that the source momentum flux and phase speed spectrum width are the most important parameters. The seasonal evolution of optimal parameter value, specifically a robust semiannual periodicity in the source strength, is also revealed. Changes in optimal source parameters with increasing forecast lead time are seen, as the GWD parameterization takes on a more active role as QBO driver at longer forecast lengths. Implementation of a semiannually varying source function at the equator provides RMS error improvement in QBO winds over the default constant value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the relevance of known constraints from each of Hide's theorem, the angular momentum–conserving (AMC) model, and the equal-area model on the extent of cross-equatorial Hadley cells. These theories respectively posit that a Hadley circulation must span all latitudes where the radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) absolute angular momentum satisfies or or where the RCE absolute vorticity satisfies ; all latitudes where the RCE zonal wind exceeds the AMC zonal wind; and over a range such that depth-averaged potential temperature is continuous and that energy is conserved. The AMC model requires knowledge of the ascent latitude , which needs not equal the RCE forcing maximum latitude . Whatever the value of , we demonstrate that an AMC cell must extend at least as far into the winter hemisphere as the summer hemisphere. The equal-area model predicts , always placing it poleward of . As is moved poleward (at a given thermal Rossby number), the equal-area-predicted Hadley circulation becomes implausibly large, while both and become increasingly displaced poleward of the minimal cell extent based on Hide's theorem (i.e., of supercritical forcing). In an idealized dry general circulation model, cross-equatorial Hadley cells are generated, some spanning nearly pole to pole. All homogenize angular momentum imperfectly, are roughly symmetric in extent about the equator, and appear in extent controlled by the span of supercritical forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microphysical (MP) schemes contain parameters whose values can impact the amount and location of forecasted precipitation, and sensitivity is typically explored by perturbing one parameter at a time while holding the rest constant. Although much can be learned from these "one-at-a-time" studies, the results are limited as these methods do not allow for nonlinear interactions of multiple perturbed parameters. This study applies the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method, a robust statistical tool allowing for simultaneous perturbation of numerous parameters, to explore orographic precipitation sensitivity to changes in microphysical and environmental parameters within an environment characteristic of an atmospheric river. Results show parameters associated with snow fall speed coefficient As and density ρs, ice-cloud water collection efficiency (ECI), rain accretion (WRA), relative humidity, zonal wind speed, and surface potential temperature cause the largest influence on simulated precipitation. MP and environmental parameter perturbations can cause precipitation changes of similar magnitude, but results vary by location on the mountain. Different environments are also tested, with As being the most influential MP parameter regardless of environment. Fewer MP parameters influence precipitation in a faster-wind-speed environment, possibly due to the stronger dynamical forcing upwind and different wave dynamics downwind, compared to a slower-wind-speed environment. Finally, perturbing MP parameters within a single scheme can result in precipitation variations of similar magnitude compared to using entirely different microphysics schemes. MOAT results presented in this study have implications for Bayesian parameter estimation methods and stochastic parameterization within ensemble forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The zonal-mean atmospheric flow of an idealized terrestrial planet is investigated using both numerical simulations and zonally symmetric theories, focusing largely on the limit of low planetary rotation rate. Two versions of a zonally symmetric theory are considered, the standard Held–Hou model, which features a discontinuous zonal wind at the edge of the Hadley cell, and a variant with continuous zonal wind but discontinuous temperature. The two models have different scalings for the boundary latitude and zonal wind. Numerical simulations are found to have smoother temperature profiles than either model, with no temperature or velocity discontinuities even in zonally symmetric simulations. Continuity is achieved in part by the presence of an overturning circulation poleward of the point of maximum zonal wind, which allows the zonal velocity profile to be smoother than the original theory without the temperature discontinuities of the variant theory. Zonally symmetric simulations generally fall between the two sets of theoretical scalings, and have a faster polar zonal flow than either set. Three-dimensional simulations, which allow for the eddy motion that is missing from both models, fall closer to the scalings of the variant model. At very low rotation rates the maximum zonal wind falls with falling planetary rotation rate, and is zero at zero rotation. The low-rotation limit of the overturning circulation, however, is strong enough to drive the temperature profile close to a state of nearly constant potential temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 200-hPa zonal momentum budget is performed to examine the role that western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) play in helping to organize intraseasonal extratropical circulation anomalies that occur with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Zonal wind is linearly decomposed into components that occur on MJO time scales (i.e., 20–100-day periods), as well as those that occur with lower and higher frequency. Dates during Northern Hemisphere fall that feature nonrecurving TCs within a search radius centered on a South China Sea grid point when the MJO is convectively active over the Maritime Continent and west Pacific warm pool are used to generate composites of relevant budget terms. These composites are then compared to others that are based on the full list of dates that feature a convectively active MJO in the same location during NH fall without regard for TC presence. Composite results highlight the primary momentum sources that guide the evolution of the NH extratropical zonal wind and associated mass field in each event set. TCs help to accelerate the East Asian subtropical jet that evolves with the MJO by modulating the high-frequency subtropical circulation over Southeast Asia. The phasing of this circulation with its underlying MJO time-scale component enables it to transfer momentum to the emerging subtropical jet. This momentum is integrated into the more slowly evolving flow and carried forward by other processes, which leads to the development of a westerly momentum surge along the subtropical jet that spans the length of the North Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in a limited-area cloud-resolving model with parameterized large-scale dynamics. The model is used to simulate two consecutive MJO events that occurred during the late fall and early winter of 2011. To test the influence of the QBO on the simulated MJO events, various QBO states are imposed via the addition of characteristic wind and temperature anomalies. In experiments with only QBO temperature anomalies imposed (without corresponding zonal wind anomalies) the strength of convection during MJO active phases is amplified for the QBO easterly phase [an anomalously cold tropical tropopause layer (TTL)] compared to the westerly QBO phase (a warm TTL), as measured by outgoing longwave radiation, cloud fraction, and large-scale ascent. This response is qualitatively consistent with the observed MJO–QBO relationship. The response of precipitation is weaker, and is less consistent across variations in the simulation configuration. Experiments with only imposed QBO wind anomalies (without corresponding temperature anomalies) show much weaker effects altogether than those with imposed temperature anomalies, suggesting that TTL temperature anomalies are a key pathway through which the QBO can modulate the MJO. Sensitivity tests indicate that the QBO influence on MJO convection depends on both the amplitude and the height of the QBO temperature anomaly: lower-altitude and larger-amplitude temperature anomalies have more pronounced effects on MJO convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The onset of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) deep convection often occurs over the western Indian Ocean and has upper-tropospheric circulation precursors that consist of eastward-circumnavigating tropical easterlies and subtropical cyclonic Rossby gyres near eastern Africa. Moreover, the evolution of the large-scale circulation and its ability to reduce subsidence may be necessary for the initial development of organized deep convection. To better understand the evolution of the circulation precursors and their interaction with convective onset, this paper analyzes the upper-tropospheric zonal momentum budget using a regional index based on the temporal progression of the meridional structure of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies over eastern Africa and the western Indian Ocean. The circumnavigating intraseasonal easterly acceleration produces upper-level divergence when it reaches the western extent of a region of intraseasonal westerlies and may provide a forcing for the in-phase midtropospheric upward vertical motion. For about three-quarters of the identified cases, the easterly acceleration over the western Indian Ocean is a response to the zonal pressure gradient over the region. In the composite, the negative pressure gradient force may be initially induced by the injection of negative geopotential height anomalies from the extratropics of both hemispheres to the tropics over eastern Africa, though tropically circumnavigating and local signals may also contribute to the easterly acceleration, especially in the days following convective onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of the variability of an eddy-driven jet to the upper- and lower-level baroclinicity of the mean state is analyzed using a three-level quasigeostrophic model on the sphere. The model is forced by a relaxation in temperature to a steady, zonally symmetric profile with varying latitude and intensity of the maximum baroclinicity. The leading EOF of the zonally and vertically averaged zonal wind is characterized by a meridional shift of the eddy-driven jet. While changes in the upper-level baroclinicity have no significant impact on the persistence of this leading EOF, an increase in lower-level baroclinicity leads to a reduced persistence. For small lower-level baroclinicity, the leading EOF follows a classical zonal index regime, for which the meridional excursions of the zonal wind anomalies are maintained by a strong positive eddy feedback. For strong lower-level baroclinicity, the jet enters a poleward-propagation regime, for which the eddy forcing continuously acts to push the jet poleward and prevents its maintenance at a fixed latitude. The enhanced poleward propagation when the lower-level baroclinicity increases is interpreted as resulting from the broader and weaker potential vorticity gradient that enables the waves to propagate equatorward and facilitates the poleward migration of the critical latitude. Finally, the decrease in the persistence of the leading EOF as the lower-level baroclinicity increases is shown not to result from the impact of changes in the mean climatological jet latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratosphere–troposphere interactions are conventionally characterized using the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of fields such as zonal-mean zonal wind. Perpetual-winter integrations of an idealized model are used to contrast the vertical structures of EOFs with those of principal oscillation patterns (POPs; the modes of a linearized system governing the evolution of zonal flow anomalies). POP structures are shown to be insensitive to pressure weighting of the time series of interest, a factor that is particularly important for a deep system such as the stratosphere and troposphere. In contrast, EOFs change from being dominated by tropospheric variability with pressure weighting to being dominated by stratospheric variability without it. The analysis reveals separate tropospheric and stratospheric modes in model integrations that are set up to resemble midwinter variability of the troposphere and stratosphere in both hemispheres. Movies illustrating the time evolution of POP structures show the existence of a fast, propagating tropospheric mode in both integrations, and a pulsing stratospheric mode with a tropospheric extension in the Northern Hemisphere–like integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to an imposed mean upwelling with a periodic modulation is studied, by modeling the dynamics of the zero wind line at the equator using a class of equations known as descent rate models. These are simple mathematical models that capture the essence of QBO synchronization by focusing on the dynamics of the height of the zero wind line. A heuristic descent rate model for the zero wind line is described and is shown to capture many of the synchronization features seen in previous studies of the QBO. It is then demonstrated using a simple transformation that the standard Holton--Lindzen model of the QBO can itself be put into the form of a descent rate model if a quadratic velocity profile is assumed below the zero wind line. The resulting nonautonomous ordinary differential equation captures much of the synchronization behavior observed in the full Holton--Lindzen partial differential equation. The new class of models provides a novel framework within which to understand synchronization of the QBO, and we demonstrate a close relationship between these models and the circle map well known in the mathematics literature. Finally, we analyze reanalysis datasets to validate some of the predictions of our descent rate models and find statistically significant evidence for synchronization of the QBO that is consistent with model behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An instability involving the resonant interaction of a Rossby wave and a Kelvin wave has been proposed to drive equatorial superrotation in planetary atmospheres with a substantially smaller radius or a smaller rotation rate than Earth, that is, with a large thermal Rossby number. To pursue this idea, this paper investigates the equilibration mechanism of Kelvin--Rossby instability by simulating the unforced initial-value problem in a shallow-water model and in a multilevel primitive equation model. Although the instability produces equatorward momentum fluxes in both models, only the multilevel model is found to superrotate. It is argued that the shortcoming of the shallow-water model is due to its difficulty in representing Kelvin wave breaking and dissipation, which is crucial for accelerating the flow in the tropics. In the absence of dissipation, the zonal momentum fluxed into the tropics is contained in the eddy contribution to the mass-weighted zonal wind rather than the zonal-mean zonal flow itself. In the shallow-water model, the zonal-mean zonal flow is only changed by the eddy potential vorticity flux, which is very small in our flow in the tropics and can only decelerate the flow in the absence of external vorticity stirring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In previous studies, a steady-state assumption has been frequently used for the analysis of wave-induced meridional circulation. In general, however, the wave forcing is not constant and thus induced circulation can vary in time. Thus, to understand such transient behaviors, time evolutions of a slow variable describing balanced flows and two fast variables describing gravity waves and flows that are slaved to balanced flows are investigated. A Boussinesq equation system is used to examine zonal-mean flow responses to unsteady zonally uniform forcing. Green's function is used to analytically obtain the evolution of meridional circulation. Responses to zonal wave forcing are mainly examined although responses to a diabatic heating and to wave forcing are discussed in brief. For forcing with a step function shape in time, gravity waves are radiated as a transient response. The time needed to form the circulation depends on the aspect ratio (i.e., latitudinal to vertical lengths) of wave forcing, which determines the group velocity of gravity waves. When the forcing time scale is longer than the inertial period, the response does not include gravity wave radiation and mainly involves a meridional circulation, which is similar to the solution for steady forcing. The two-celled meridional circulation describes the early stage response to the forcing and can be used to examine how the wave forcing is distributed to zonal wind acceleration and Coriolis torque. It is shown that the distribution depends on the aspect ratio of the forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant mode of seasonal variability in the global tropical upper-stratosphere and mesosphere zonal wind is the semiannual oscillation (SAO). However, it is notoriously difficult to measure winds at these heights from satellite or ground-based remote sensing. Here, the balance wind relationship is used to derive monthly and zonally averaged zonal winds in the tropics from satellite retrievals of geopotential height. Data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) cover about 12.5 yr, and those from the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics ( TIMED) Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) cover almost 15 yr. The derived winds agree with direct wind observations below 10 hPa and above 80 km; there are no direct wind observations for validation in the intervening layers of the middle atmosphere. The derived winds show the following prominent peaks associated with the SAO: easterly maxima near the solstices at 1.0 hPa, westerly maxima near the equinoxes at 0.1 hPa, and easterly maxima near the equinoxes at 0.01 hPa. The magnitudes of these three wind maxima are stronger during the first cycle (January at 1.0 hPa and March at 0.1 and 0.01 hPa). The month and pressure level of the wind maxima shift depending on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at 10 hPa. During easterly QBO, the westerly maxima are shifted upward, are about 10 m s−1 stronger, and occur approximately 1 month later than those during the westerly QBO phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical waves are generally considered to have a baroclinic structure. However, analysis of ERA-Interim and NOAA OLR data for the period 1979-2010 shows that in the equatorial and Northern Hemisphere near-equatorial regions in the tropical Western Hemisphere (WH), westward- and eastward-moving transients, with zonal wavenumbers 2-10 and periods of 2-30 days, have little tilt in the vertical and can be said to be equivalent barotropic. The westward-moving transients in the equatorial region have large projections onto the westward mixed Rossby-gravity (WMRG) wave and those in the near-equatorial region project onto the gravest Rossby wave and also the WMRG. The eastward-moving transients have large projections onto the Doppler-shifted eastward-moving versions of these waves. To examine how such equivalent barotropic structures are possible in the tropics, terms in the vorticity equation are analyzed. It is deduced that waves must have westward intrinsic phase speeds and can exist in the WH with its large westerly vertical shear. Throughout the depth, the advection of vorticity by the zonal flow and the β term are large and nearly cancel. In the upper troposphere the zonal advection by the strong westerly flow wins and the residual is partially balanced by vortex shrinking associated with divergence above a region of ascent. Below the region of ascent the β term wins and is partially balanced by vortex stretching associated with the convergence. An equivalent barotropic structure is therefore maintained in a similar manner to higher latitudes. The regions of ascent are usually associated with deep convection and, consistently, WH waves directly connected to tropical convection are also found to be equivalent barotropic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eliassen-Palm flux (EPF) and Plumb's wave activity flux (WAF) were computed, using ERA-Interim data, to analyze the influence of planetary wave 3 on a stratospheric sudden warming event from 17 February to 15 March 2005 (SSW05). It was found that 1) SSW05 consisted of three stages: a prior minor warming (MnW05), a late final warming (FW05), and a warming stagnation between MnW05 and FW05; 2) the wave 3 first decreased total upward EPFs by more than 30% at 100 hPa, resulting in the warming stagnation, and then increased upward EPFs by greater than 50%, leading to FW05; and 3) the anomalies of wave-3 activity fluxes were associated with the pattern of Atlantic blocking high in the latter two stages. The interactions between the wave 3 and wave 1 partitioned the zonal upward channel of total wave activity fluxes from one longitudinal region into two longitudinal regions and affected SSW05. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One-point correlation maps of the subseasonal variability of 200-hPa meridional wind in nature and an atmospheric general circulation model are systematically analyzed to quantify the impact of the climatological-mean jets on tropospheric covariability as a result of the jets acting as waveguides for the propagation of Rossby waves. As anticipated by linear theory, signatures of jet influence are detected in terms of (i) the geographical position of the strongest teleconnections, (ii) the zonal orientation and extent of prominent patterns of variability, and (iii) the scale of the features that make up those patterns. Further evidence of jet waveguide influence comes from examining the seasonality of these teleconnection attributes. During winter, covariability can be essentially circumglobal, while during summer it tends to be confined within two separate sectors of the globe where the jets are especially strong. Experiments with a multilevel linear planetary wave model confirm that the analyzed characteristics of teleconnections in the waveguides can be attributed to the action of the mean state; no organization to the anomalous forcing of the atmosphere is required to produce these properties. Some attributes, however, depend on the presence of zonal variations in the climatological-mean state that are of similar scale to the teleconnection patterns themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]