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: Introduction: In South Africa, the HIV care cascade remains suboptimal. We investigated the impact of small conditional financial incentives (CFIs) and male‐targeted HIV‐specific decision‐support application (EPIC‐HIV) on the HIV care cascade. Methods: In 2018, in uMkhanyakude district, 45 communities were randomly assigned to one of four arms: (i) CFI for home‐based HIV testing and linkage to care within 6 weeks (R50 [US$3] food voucher each); (ii) EPIC‐HIV which are based on self‐determination theory; (iii) both CFI and EPIC‐HIV; and (iv) standard of care. EPIC‐HIV consisted of two components: EPIC‐HIV 1, provided to men through a tablet before home‐based HIV testing, and EPIC‐HIV 2, offered 1 month later to men who tested positive but had not yet linked to care. Linking HITS trial data to national antiretroviral treatment (ART) programme data and HIV surveillance programme data, we estimated HIV status awareness after the HITS trial implementation, ART status 3 month after the trial and viral load suppression 1 year later. Analysis included all known individuals living with HIV in the study area including those who did not participated in the HITS trial. Results: Among the 33,778 residents in the study area, 2763 men and 7266 women were identified as living with HIV by the end of the intervention period and included in the analysis. After the intervention, awareness of HIV‐positive status was higher in the CFI arms compared to non‐CFI arms (men: 793/908 [87.3%] vs. 1574/1855 [84.9%], RR = 1.03 [95% CI: 0.99−1.07]; women: 2259/2421 [93.3%] vs. 4439/4845 [91.6%], RR = 1.02 [95% CI: 1.00−1.04]). Three months after the intervention, no differences were found for linkage to ART between arms. One year after the intervention, only 1829 viral test results were retrieved. Viral suppression was higher but not significant in the EPIC‐HIV intervention arms among men (65/99 [65.7%] vs. 182/308 [59.1%], RR = 1.11 [95% CI: 0.88−1.40]). Conclusions: Small CFIs can contribute to achieve the first step of the HIV care cascade. However, neither CFIs nor EPIC‐HIV was sufficient to increase the number of people on ART. Additional evidence is needed to confirm the impact of EPIC‐HIV on viral suppression., INTRODUCTION Despite progress towards UNAIDS's 95‐95‐95, the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) aware of their HIV status or on antiretroviral treatment (ART) remains insufficient in South Africa [1]. [...]

: Introduction: While it is widely acknowledged that family relationships can influence health outcomes, their impact on the uptake of individual health interventions is unclear. In this study, we quantified how the efficacy of a randomized health intervention is shaped by its pattern of distribution in the family network. Methods: The “Home‐Based Intervention to Test and Start” (HITS) was a 2×2 factorial community‐randomized controlled trial in Umkhanyakude, KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa, embedded in the Africa Health Research Institute's population‐based demographic and HIV surveillance platform (ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT03757104). The study investigated the impact of two interventions: a financial micro‐incentive and a male‐targeted HIV‐specific decision support programme. The surveillance area was divided into 45 community clusters. Individuals aged ≥15 years in 16 randomly selected communities were offered a micro‐incentive (R50 [$3] food voucher) for rapid HIV testing (intervention arm). Those living in the remaining 29 communities were offered testing only (control arm). Study data were collected between February and November 2018. Using routinely collected data on parents, conjugal partners, and co‐residents, a socio‐centric family network was constructed among HITS‐eligible individuals. Nodes in this network represent individuals and ties represent family relationships. We estimated the effect of offering the incentive to people with and without family members who also received the offer on the uptake of HIV testing. We fitted a linear probability model with robust standard errors, accounting for clustering at the community level. Results: Overall, 15,675 people participated in the HITS trial. Among those with no family members who received the offer, the incentive's efficacy was a 6.5 percentage point increase (95% CI: 5.3−7.7). The efficacy was higher among those with at least one family member who received the offer (21.1 percentage point increase (95% CI: 19.9−22.3). The difference in efficacy was statistically significant (21.1–6.5 = 14.6%; 95% CI: 9.3−19.9). Conclusions: Micro‐incentives appear to have synergistic effects when distributed within family networks. These effects support family network‐based approaches for the design of health interventions., INTRODUCTION Though family relationships crucially determine health and wellbeing, their role in shaping the uptake of individual health interventions is not well‐understood. Using family network data from a large population‐based [...]

: Introduction: Population‐based biomarker surveys are the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence but are susceptible to substantial non‐participation (up to 30%). Analytical missing data methods, including inverse‐probability weighting (IPW) and multiple imputation (MI), are biased when data are missing‐not‐at‐random, for example when people living with HIV more frequently decline participation. Heckman‐type selection models can, under certain assumptions, recover unbiased prevalence estimates in such scenarios. Methods: We pooled data from 142,706 participants aged 15–49 years from nationally representative cross‐sectional Population‐based HIV Impact Assessments in seven countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, conducted between 2015 and 2018 in Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini. We compared sex‐stratified HIV prevalence estimates from unadjusted, IPW, MI and selection models, controlling for household and individual‐level predictors of non‐participation, and assessed the sensitivity of selection models to the copula function specifying the correlation between study participation and HIV status. Results: In total, 84.1% of participants provided a blood sample to determine HIV serostatus (range: 76% in Malawi to 95% in Uganda). HIV prevalence estimates from selection models diverged from IPW and MI models by up to 5% in Lesotho, without substantial precision loss. In Tanzania, the IPW model yielded lower HIV prevalence estimates among males than the best‐fitting copula selection model (3.8% vs. 7.9%). Conclusions: We demonstrate how HIV prevalence estimates from selection models can differ from those obtained under missing‐at‐random assumptions. Further benefits include exploration of plausible relationships between participation and outcome. While selection models require additional assumptions and careful specification, they are an important tool for triangulating prevalence estimates in surveys with substantial missing data due to non‐participation., INTRODUCTION Accurate HIV prevalence estimates are crucial for monitoring HIV disease burden and guiding testing and clinical management. However, population‐based HIV biomarker surveys, the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence, [...]

: Introduction: The uptake of HIV testing and linkage to care remains low among men, contributing to high HIV incidence in women in South Africa. We conducted the “Home‐Based Intervention to Test and Start” (HITS) in a 2x2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial in one of the World’s largest ongoing HIV cohorts in rural South Africa aimed at enhancing both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations for HIV testing. Methods: Between February and December 2018, in the uMkhanyakude district of KwaZulu‐Natal, we randomly assigned 45 communities (clusters) (n = 13,838 residents) to one of the four arms: (i) financial incentives for home‐based HIV testing and linkage to care (R50 [$3] food voucher each); (ii) male‐targeted HIV‐specific decision support application, called EPIC‐HIV; (iii) both financial incentives and male‐targeted HIV‐specific decision support application and (iv) standard of care (SoC). EPIC‐HIV was developed to encourage and serve as an intrinsic motivator for HIV testing and linkage to care, and individually offered to men via a tablet device. Financial incentives were offered to both men and women. Here we report the effect of the interventions on uptake of home‐based HIV testing among men. Intention‐to‐treat (ITT) analysis was performed using modified Poisson regression with adjustment for clustering of standard errors at the cluster levels. Results: Among all 13,838 men ≥ 15 years living in the 45 communities, the overall population coverage during a single round of home‐based HIV testing was 20.7%. The uptake of HIV testing was 27.5% (683/2481) in the financial incentives arm, 17.1% (433/2534) in the EPIC‐HIV arm, 26.8% (568/2120) in the arm receiving both interventions and 17.8% in the SoC arm. The probability of HIV testing increased substantially by 55% in the financial incentives arm (risk ratio (RR)=1.55, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.82, p < 0.001) and 51% in the arm receiving both interventions (RR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.87 p < 0.001), compared to men in the SoC arm. The probability of HIV testing did not significantly differ in the EPIC‐HIV arm (RR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.20, p = 0.70). Conclusions: The provision of a small financial incentive acted as a powerful extrinsic motivator substantially increasing the uptake of home‐based HIV testing among men in rural South Africa. In contrast, the counselling and testing application which was designed to encourage and serve as an intrinsic motivator to test for HIV did not increase the uptake of home‐based testing., INTRODUCTION Despite the successes and implementation of population‐wide HIV prevention and treatment programmes [1,2], female adolescents and young women have consistently faced a high risk of HIV infection, whereas HIV [...]

: Introduction: The WHO recommends antiretroviral treatment (ART) for all HIV‐positive patients regardless of CD4 count or disease stage, referred to as “Early Access to ART for All” (EAAA). The health systems effects of EAAA implementation are unknown. This trial was implemented in a government‐managed public health system with the aim to examine the “real world” impact of EAAA on care retention and viral suppression. Methods: In this stepped‐wedge randomized controlled trial, 14 public sector health facilities in Eswatini were paired and randomly assigned to stepwise transition from standard of care (SoC) to EAAA. ART‐naïve participants ≥18 years who were not pregnant or breastfeeding were eligible for enrolment. We used Cox proportional hazard models with censoring at clinic transition to estimate the effects of EAAA on retention in care and retention and viral suppression combined. Results: Between September 2014 and August 2017, 3405 participants were enrolled. In SoC and EAAA respectively, 12‐month HIV care retention rates were 80% (95% CI: 77 to 83) and 86% (95% CI: 83 to 88). The 12‐month combined retention and viral suppression endpoint rates were 44% (95% CI: 40 to 48) under SoC compared to 80% (95% CI: 77 to 83) under EAAA. EAAA increased both retention (HR: 1·60, 95% CI: 1·15 to 2·21, p = 0.005) and retention and viral suppression combined (HR: 4.88, 95% CI: 2.96 to 8.05, p < 0.001). We also identified significant gaps in current health systems ability to provide viral load (VL) monitoring with 80% participants in SoC and 66% in EAAA having a missing VL at last contact. Conclusions: The observed improvement in retention in care and on the combined retention and viral suppression provides an important co‐benefit of EAAA to HIV‐positive adults themselves, at least in the short term. Our results from this “real world” health systems trial strongly support EAAA for Eswatini and countries with similar HIV epidemics and health systems. VL monitoring needs to be scaled up for appropriate care management., Introduction In 2018, nearly 38 million people were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), of whom 20.64 million live in sub‐Saharan Africa. There has been a 56% decline in AIDS‐related [...]

: Introduction: High levels of HIV seroconcordance at the population level reduce the potential for effective HIV transmission. However, the level of HIV seroconcordance is largely unknown among heterosexual couples in sub‐Saharan Africa. We aimed to quantify the population level HIV seroconcordance in stable heterosexual couples in rural South Africa. Methods: We followed adults (≥15 years old) using a population‐based, longitudinal and open surveillance system in KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa, from 2003 to 2016. Sexual partnerships and HIV status were confirmed via household surveys and annual HIV surveillance. We calculated the proportions of HIV seroconcordance and serodiscordance in stable sexual partnerships and compared them to the expected proportions under the assumption of random mixing using individual‐based microsimulation models. Among unpartnered individuals, we estimated the incidence rates and hazard of sexual partnership formation with HIV‐positive or HIV‐negative partners by participants' own time‐varying HIV status. Competing risks survival regressions were fitted adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. We also calculated Newman's assortativity coefficients. Results: A total of 18,341 HIV‐negative and 11,361 HIV‐positive individuals contributed 154,469 person‐years (PY) of follow‐up. Overall, 28% of the participants were in stable sexual partnerships. Of the 677 newly formed stable sexual partnerships, 7.7% (95% CI: 5.8 to 10.0) were HIV‐positive seroconcordant (i.e. both individuals in the partnership were HIV‐positive), which was three times higher than the expected proportion (2.3%) in microsimulation models based on random mixing. The incidence rates of sexual partnership formation were 0.54/1000PY with HIV‐positive, 1.12/1000PY with HIV‐negative and 2.65/1000PY with unknown serostatus partners. HIV‐positive individuals had 2.39 (95% CI: 1.43 to 3.99) times higher hazard of forming a sexual partnership with an HIV‐positive partner than did HIV‐negative individuals after adjusting for age, opposite‐sex HIV prevalence (by 5‐years age groups), HIV prevalence in the surrounding community, ART coverage and other sociodemographic factors. Similarly, forming a sexual partnership with an HIV‐negative partner was 1.47 (95% CI: 1.01 to 2.14) times higher in HIV‐negative individuals in the adjusted model. Newman's coefficient also showed that assortativity by participant and partner HIV status was moderate (r = 0.35). Conclusions: A high degree of population level HIV seroconcordance (both positive and negative) was observed at the time of forming new sexual partnerships. Understanding factors driving these patterns may help the development of strategies to bring the HIV epidemic under control., Introduction It is estimated that about one out of five adults in South Africa were living with HIV in 2018. In sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), there is increasing evidence that HIV [...]

: Introduction: The universal test‐and‐treat (UTT) strategy aims to maximize population viral suppression (PVS), that is, the proportion of all people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) and virally suppressed, with the goal of reducing HIV transmission at the population level. This article explores the extent to which temporal changes in PVS explain the observed lack of association between universal treatment and cumulative HIV incidence seen in the ANRS 12249 TasP trial conducted in rural South Africa. Methods: The TasP cluster‐randomized trial (2012 to 2016) implemented six‐monthly repeat home‐based HIV counselling and testing (RHBCT) and referral of PLHIV to local HIV clinics in 2 × 11 clusters opened sequentially. ART was initiated according to national guidelines in control clusters and regardless of CD4 count in intervention clusters. We measured residency status, HIV status, and HIV care status for each participant on a daily basis. PVS was computed per cluster among all resident PLHIV (≥16, including those not in care) at cluster opening and daily thereafter. We used a mixed linear model to explore time patterns in PVS, adjusting for sociodemographic changes at the cluster level. Results: 8563 PLHIV were followed. During the course of the trial, PVS increased significantly in both arms (23.5% to 46.2% in intervention, +22.8, p < 0.001; 26.0% to 44.6% in control, +18.6, p < 0.001). That increase was similar in both arms (p = 0.514). In the final adjusted model, PVS increase was most associated with increased RHBCT and the implementation of local trial clinics (measured by time since cluster opening). Contextual changes (measured by calendar time) also contributed slightly. The effect of universal ART (trial arm) was positive but limited. Conclusions: PVS was improved significantly but similarly in both trial arms, explaining partly the null effect observed in terms of cumulative HIV incidence between arms. The PVS gains due to changes in ART‐initiation guidelines alone are relatively small compared to gains obtained by strategies to maximize testing and linkage to care. The achievement of the 90‐90‐90 targets will not be met if the operational and implementational challenges limiting access to care and treatment, often context‐specific, are not properly addressed. Clinical trial number: NCT01509508 (clinicalTrials.gov)/DOH‐27‐0512‐3974 (South African National Clinical Trials Register)., Introduction Antiretroviral treatment (ART), when taken early has several benefits, both in terms of morbidity and mortality and in terms of reduction in HIV sexual transmission. Mathematical modelling work suggested [...]

: Introduction: The HIV‐infected population is growing due to the increased accessibility of antiretroviral therapy (ART) that extends the lifespan of people living with HIV (PLHIV). We aimed to assess whether national HIV prevalence and ART use are associated with an increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Methods: Using country‐level data, we analysed the effect of HIV prevalence and use of ART on cardiovascular risk factors in 44 countries in sub‐Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2016. We used fixed‐effects estimation to quantify the effect of HIV and ART on the prevalence of diabetes, mean body mass index, the prevalence of overweight, obesity and hypertension, and mean systolic blood pressure. The models were adjusted for calendar time, the age structure of the population, income and education. Results: Diabetes prevalence among PLHIV was 5.8 percentage points higher (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8 pp to 9.8 pp) compared to individuals without HIV. People receiving ART had a 4.6 percentage point higher prevalence (95% CI 2.6 pp to 6.6 pp). The prevalence of obesity was increased by 14.7 percentage points (95% CI 2.5 pp to 26.9 pp) for PLHIV. Receiving ART was associated with an increased obesity prevalence by 14.0 percentage points (95% CI 4.8 pp to 23.2 pp), whereas it had no significant association with the prevalence of overweight. The population aged 40 to 59 had a significantly higher prevalence of diabetes, overweight and obesity. HIV prevalence and ART use had no significant association with the prevalence of hypertension. Conclusions: An ageing HIV‐infected population on ART is associated with a significant increase in the prevalence of diabetes and obesity in sub‐Saharan Africa. The increasing prevalence of these cardiovascular risk factors emphasizes the need for comprehensive healthcare programmes that screen and treat both HIV and non‐communicable diseases to decrease the associated morbidity and mortality rates., Introduction The increasing prevalence of non‐communicable diseases (NCDs) and number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) pose great challenges to global public health. NCDs account for approximately 70% of global [...]

: Introduction: Female sex workers (FSWs) have strong economic incentives for sexual risk‐taking behaviour. We test whether knowledge of HIV status affects such behaviours among FSWs. Methods: We used longitudinal data from a FSW cohort in urban Uganda, which was formed as part of an HIV self‐testing trial with four months of follow‐up. Participants reported perceived knowledge of HIV status, number of clients per average working night, and consistent condom use with clients at baseline, one month, and four months. We measured the association between knowledge of HIV status and FSWs’ sexual behaviours using linear panel regressions with individual fixed effects, controlling for study round and calendar time. Results: Most of the 960 participants tested for HIV during the observation period (95%) and experienced a change in knowledge of HIV status (71%). Knowledge of HIV status did not affect participants’ number of clients but did affect their consistent condom use. After controlling for individual fixed effects, study round and calendar month, knowledge of HIV‐negative status was associated with a significant increase in consistent condom use by 9.5 percentage points (95% CI 5.2 to 13.5, p < 0.001), while knowledge of HIV‐positive status was not associated with a significant change in consistent condom use (2.5 percentage points, 95% CI −8.0 to 3.1, p = 0.38). Conclusions: In urban Uganda, FSWs engaged in safer sex with clients when they perceived that they themselves were not living with HIV. Even in communities with very high HIV prevalence, the majority of the population will test HIV‐negative. Our results thus imply that expansion of HIV testing programmes may serve as a behavioural HIV prevention measure among FSWs., Introduction Knowledge of HIV status is a necessary pre‐condition for biomedical and behavioural HIV interventions that have been proven to reduce the risk of HIV transmission. Many governments and international [...]

: Introduction: Participation in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes has been associated with greater utilization of care for hypertension and diabetes in rural South Africa. The objective of this study was to assess whether people living with HIV on ART with comorbid hypertension or diabetes also have improved chronic disease management indicators. Methods: The Health and Aging in Africa: a longitudinal study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) is a cohort of 5059 adults >40 years old. Enrollment took place between November 2014 and November 2015. The study collected population‐based data on demographics, healthcare utilization, height, weight, blood pressure (BP) and blood glucose as well as HIV infection, HIV‐1 RNA viral load (VL) and ART exposure. We used regression models to determine whether HIV care cascade stage (HIV‐negative, HIV+ /No ART, ART/Detected HIV VL, and ART/Undetectable VL) was associated with diagnosis or treatment of hypertension or diabetes, and systolic blood pressure and glucose among those with diagnosed hypertension or diabetes. ART use was measured from drug level testing on dried blood spots. Results and discussion: Compared to people without HIV, ART/Undetectable VL was associated with greater awareness of hypertension diagnosis (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.18, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.28) and treatment of hypertension (aRR 1.24, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.41) among those who met hypertension diagnostic criteria. HIV care cascade stage was not significantly associated with awareness of diagnosis or treatment of diabetes. Among those with diagnosed hypertension or diabetes, ART/Undetectable VL was associated with lower mean systolic blood pressure (5.98 mm Hg, 95% CI: 9.65 to 2.32) and lower mean glucose (3.77 mmol/L, 95% CI: 6.85 to 0.69), compared to being HIV‐negative. Conclusions: Participants on ART with an undetectable VL had lower systolic blood pressure and blood glucose than the HIV‐negative participants. HIV treatment programmes may provide a platform for health systems strengthening for cardiometabolic disease., Introduction As HIV‐positive populations age in the era of widespread antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability, there is an urgent need to better understand the biological and health systems implications of the [...]

: Introduction: The universal test and treat strategy (UTT) was developed to maximize the proportion of all HIV‐positive individuals on antiretroviral treatment (ART) and virally suppressed, assuming that it will lead to a reduction in HIV incidence at the population level. The evolution over time of the cross‐sectional HIV care cascade is determined by individual longitudinal trajectories through the HIV care continuum and underlying population dynamics. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the contribution of each component of population change (in‐ and out‐migration, HIV seroconversion, ageing into the cohort and definitive exit such as death) on the HIV care cascade in the context of the ANRS 12249 Treatment as Prevention (TasP) cluster‐randomized trial, investigating UTT in rural KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa, between 2012 and 2016. Methods: HIV test results and information on clinic visits, ART prescriptions, viral load and CD4 count, migration and deaths were used to calculate residency status, HIV status and HIV care status for each individual on a daily basis. Position within the HIV care continuum was considered as a score ranging from 0 (undiagnosed) to 4 (virally suppressed). We compared the cascade score of each individual joining or leaving the population of resident adults living with HIV with the average score of their cluster at the time of entry or exit. Then, we computed the contribution of each entry or exit on the average cascade score and their annualized total contribution, by component of change. Results: While the average cascade score increased over time in all clusters, that increase was constrained by population dynamics. Permanent exits and ageing into the people living with HIV cohort had a marginal effect. Both in‐migrants and out‐migrants were less likely to be retained at each step of the HIV care continuum. However, their overall impact on the cross‐sectional cascade was limited as the effect of in‐ and out‐migration balanced each other. The contribution of HIV seroconversions was negative in all clusters. Conclusions: In a context of high HIV incidence, the continuous flow of newly infected individuals slows down the efforts to increase ART coverage and population viral suppression, ultimately attenuating any population‐level impact on HIV incidence. Clinical Trial Number: NCT01509508 (clinicalTrials.gov)/DOH‐27‐0512‐3974 (South African National Clinical Trials Register)., Introduction Early antiretroviral treatment (ART) of HIV‐positive patients has been shown to prevent transmission of HIV, in addition to individual benefits in terms of reducing morbidity and mortality. The universal [...]

Introduction: Individuals’ educational attainment has long been considered as a risk factor for HIV. However, little attention has been paid to the association between partner educational attainment and HIV infection. Methods: We conducted cross‐sectional analysis of young women (aged 15–34) in 14 Demographic and Health Surveys from seven sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) countries with generalized HIV epidemics. We measured the degree of similarity in educational attainment (partner homophily) in 75,373 partnerships and evaluated the correlation between homophily and female HIV prevalence at the survey cluster level. We then used logistic regression to assess whether own and partner educational attainment was associated with HIV serostatus amongst 38,791 women. Results: Educational attainment was positively correlated within partnerships in both urban and rural areas of every survey (Newman assortativity coefficients between 0.09 and 0.44), but this correlation was not ecologically associated with HIV prevalence. At the individual level, larger absolute differences between own and partner educational attainment were associated with significantly higher HIV prevalence amongst women. This association was heterogeneous across countries, but not between survey waves. In contrast to other women, for those aged 25–34 who had secondary or higher education, a more‐educated partner was associated with lower HIV prevalence. Conclusions: HIV prevalence amongst women in SSA is associated not only with one's own education but also with that of one's partner. These findings highlight the importance of understanding how partners place individuals at risk of infection and suggest that HIV prevention efforts may benefit from considering partner characteristics., Introduction Even in the context of a generalized HIV epidemic in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), the risk of infection varies greatly within small geographic or social groupings [1–3]. As a result, [...]

Introduction: HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman‐type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population‐based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa. Methods: We used data from a population‐based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status. Results: For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation. Conclusions: We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population‐based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non‐participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest., Introduction Accurate HIV prevalence estimates are important for many reasons, including the ability to assess disease trajectories, risk factors and the consequences of infection. Estimates from representative household surveys and [...]