本稿では, 自治体固有の影響や年度固有の影響を考慮したパネルデータ分析 (2001-2007) により, 産業廃棄物税 (以下, 産廃税) による全産業廃棄物および品目別 (廃プラスチック類, 汚泥, がれき類) の課税効果を推定した. 特に, 産廃税制度設計要因として徴税方法別の課税効果や焼却施設への課税効果について検証した. この結果, 特別徴収方式の産廃税導入により, 全産業廃棄物, 汚泥, がれき類に対する最終処分量の削減効果, ならびに全産業廃棄物, 廃プラスチック類, 汚泥に対する中間処理量の増加作用が推定された. また, 埋立処分と焼却に対して課税した場合, 埋立処分のみに課税した場合に比べて, 廃プラスチック類で4割, 汚泥で3割の中間処理量の削減効果があるが, がれき類ではその効果は表れないことが確認された. 品目別で課税効果に差が見られ, 廃棄物処理フローへの影響がそれぞれ異なることが確認された., In Japan, 27 prefectures have implemented an industrial waste tax system comprised of two taxation methods: payment by self-assessment, and payment by special collection. In this study, we estimate waste reduction and recycling effects resulting from the implementation of the industrial waste tax using panel data from 47 prefectures during the period 2001 to 2007. The study looked at the total amount of industrial waste being generated and the three categories of industrial waste (plastic waste, sludge, and debris). The paper also analyzes the impacts on waste flow caused by these two taxation methods and taxation on incineration facilities. First, results verified that the industrial waste tax using payment by special collection had a greater effect on waste reduction with regard to final disposal amounts for total industrial waste, sludge, and debris. Moreover, taxation increased the amount of intermediate treatment for total industrial waste, plastic waste, and sludge. Next, we calculated that taxation on incineration facilities would reduce the intermediate treatment amount of plastic waste by 40 percent and that of sludge by 30 percent. Finally, we confirmed that the effects of the industrial waste tax will vary across the different waste categories.