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Dual-polarization radar often detects columnar regions of enhanced differential reflectivity (ZDR) extending vertically above the environmental 0 °C level. Indicative of supercooled liquid drops and wet ice particles lofted by strong updrafts, these ZDR columns are increasingly understood to be of use in predicting extreme rainfall. With the aim of achieving practical application of ZDR column measurements, this paper focuses on the relationship between the height of ZDR columns and rainfall intensity near the ground. All the data on ZDR columns analyzed in this study was collected from weather radar stations in Japan. The height of each column and rainfall rates at low levels were analyzed using an automated algorithm. A regression analysis result reveals peak column height to be positively correlated with maximum rainfall rate near ground level, and that rainfall intensity on the ground is likely to exceed 50 mm h-1 when radar identifies a ZDR column. Furthermore, extreme rainfall with an intensity of 180 mm h-1 or more is likely associated with a column over 3 km tall from the 0 °C level. These findings suggest that surveillance of ZDR columns can contribute to the reliability of very short-range forecasts or nowcasts as well as assist with the issue of early warnings of extreme rainfall and flash floods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has developed the third Japanese global atmospheric reanalysis, the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q). The objective of JRA-3Q is to improve quality in terms of issues identified in the previous Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and to extend the reanalysis period further into the past. JRA-3Q is based on the TL479 version of the JMA global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system as of December 2018 and uses results of developments in the operational NWP system, boundary conditions, and forcing fields achieved at JMA since JRA-55. It covers the period from September 1947, when Typhoon Kathleen brought severe flood damage to Japan, and uses rescued historical observations to extend its analyses backwards in time about 10 years earlier than JRA-55. This paper describes the data assimilation system, forecast model, observations, boundary conditions, and forcing fields used to produce JRA-3Q as well as the basic characteristics of the JRA-3Q product. The initial quality evaluation revealed major improvements from JRA-55 in the global energy budget and representation of tropical cyclones (TCs). One of the major problems in JRA-55--global energy imbalance with excess upward net energy flux at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface--has been significantly reduced in JRA-3Q. Another problem--a trend of artificial weakening of TCs--has been resolved through the use of a method that generates TC bogus based on the JMA operational system. There remain several problems such that the volcanic-induced stratospheric warming is smaller than expected. This paper discusses the causes of such problems and possible solutions in future reanalyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in 1997, and the observations continued for more than 17 years. The features of TRMM observation were as follows: (a) it followed a non-sun synchronized orbit that enabled the diurnal variation of precipitation to be investigated; (b) it carried a precipitation radar and microwave and infrared radiometers, along with two instruments of opportunity in the form of a lighting sensor and a radiation budget sensor; and (c) it worked as a standard reference for precipitation measurements for other spaceborne microwave radiometers, which enabled global rain maps to be developed. For science, TRMM provided precise and accurate rain distributions over tropical and subtropical regions. The rainfall results are primarily essential for the study of precipitation climatologies, whereas the three-dimensional images of precipitation systems enabled the study of the global characteristics of precipitation systems. Technologically, the spaceborne rain radar onboard TRMM demonstrated the effectiveness of radars in space, whereas the combination with other rain observation instruments showed its effectiveness as a calibration source. Multi-satellite rain maps in which TRMM was the reference standard have been developed, and they became prototypes of the multi-satellite Earth observation systems. On the basis of the great success of TRMM, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) was designed to expand TRMM's coverage to higher latitudes. The core satellite of GPM is equipped with a dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and a microwave radiometer. DPR comprises a Kuband radar (KuPR) and a Ka-band radar (KaPR) and can discriminate solid from liquid precipitation. The period of the precipitation measurement with spaceborne radars extended to more than 23 years, which may make it possible to detect the change of precipitation climatology related to change in the global environment. Although TRMM's and GPM's accomplishments are very broad, this paper attempts to highlight Japan's contributions to the science of these missions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An intense rainband associated with Typhoon 1326 (Wipha) induced a fatal debris flow on Izu Oshima, Japan, on October 15 - 16, 2013. This rainband formed along a local front between the southeasterly humid warm air around the typhoon and the northeasterly cold air from the Kanto Plain. In this paper, the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic Model was optimized for the "K computer", and ultra-high-resolution (500 - 250 m grid spacing) numerical simulations of the rainband with a large domain were conducted. Two of main factors that affect a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, (1) grid spacing and (2) planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes [Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) and Deardorff (DD)], were investigated. Experiments with DD (Exps_DD: grid spacings of 2 km, 500 m, and 250 m) showed better reproducibility of the rainband position than experiments with MYNN (Exps_MYNN: grid spacings of 5 km, 2 km, and 500 m). Exps_DD simulated distinct convective-scale up/downdraft pairs on the southeast/northwest sides of the front, whereas those of Exps_MYNN were not clear. Exps_DD yielded stronger cold pools near the surface than did Exps_MYNN. These differences in the boundary layer structures likely had a large impact on the position of the front and the associated rainband. Exps_DD with the 500-m grid spacing showed the best precipitation performance according to the Fractions Skill Score. To check other factors which influence precipitation forecast, model domain sizes, lateral boundary conditions in nesting simulations, and terrain representations were investigated. In the small domain experiments, the rain-planband shapes were very different from the observations. In the experiment using a nesting procedure, the deterioration of the forecast performance was acceptably reduced. The model with fine terrains reproduced the intense rain over the island. These results demonstrate that the ultra-high-resolution NWP model with a large domain has the possibility to improve predictions of heavy rain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disasters caused by heavy rainfall associated with quasi-stationary line-shaped mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently occur in Japan. Thus, highly accurate quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) information that contributes to decision-making by municipalities to issue evacuation orders is necessary. To this end, we developed a blending forecasting system (BFS) for predicting heavy rainfall associated with MCSs. The BFS blends 1-h observed rainfall and forecasts of extrapolation-based nowcasting (EXT) in the first hour and numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the second hour, predicting 3-h accumulated rainfall (P3h) and its return period (RP) of up to 2 h ahead with a higher horizontal resolution (1 km) and higher-frequency updates (every 10 min) compared to the current operational systems. A blending technique with a spatial maximum filter for tolerating forecast displacement errors (BLEDE) was applied to the predicted rainfall of EXT and NWP. To improve the accuracy of the NWP, vertical profiles of water vapor obtained with two water vapor lidars (WVLs) were assimilated into the NWP. This combination predicted rare heavy rainfall with an RP of more than 10 years in the same city where flooding occurred for a heavy rainfall event associated with quasi-stationary line-shaped MCSs in southern Kyushu on 10 July 2021. The BFS yielded such forecast information 40 min earlier than the existing warning information, indicating the potential for providing a longer lead time for evacuation. The improvement in forecast accuracy was due to both BLEDE and WVL data assimilation (WVL-DA); however, the contribution of BLEDE was more than five times that of WVL-DA in terms of predicting the P3h for the threshold of 80 mm. Additionally, the sensitivity of the predicted rainfall to the background error covariance matrix in WVL-DA is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background (BG) aerosol particles (APs) acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and/or ice nucleating particles (INPs) influence short-range precipitation forecasts and climate change projections by modulating cloud and precipitation microphysical structures and influence the effects of cloud seeding on precipitation enhancement. However, data on the CCN and INP capabilities of BG APs are limited in terms of geographical locations and time. To investigate the characteristics of BG APs, we conducted ground-based measurements of BG AP and CCN in Kochi City, Japan, in June 2010. Comparisons with previously published data on AP and CCN concentrations in East Asia showed that the mean concentrations of APs and CCN at the observation site were considerably affected by air pollution. Our findings also suggest that during the observation period, even air masses from the Pacific Ocean were considerably affected by air pollution in East Asia, including Japan. Moreover, aircraft-measured AP and CCN concentrations in the boundary layer were comparable to those measured concurrently at the surface observation site, although the horizontal positions of the ground- and aircraft-based measurements were not identical; the size distributions of the APs were similar. These results suggest that ground-based measurements represent APs and CCN in the boundary layer, where the air is ingested by clouds. Numerical simulations with a detailed bin microphysics parcel model showed that cloud droplet number concentrations, based on meteorological conditions and aerosol characteristics expected near the observation site environments, would range from 500 droplets cm-3 to 1,500 droplets cm-3. These concentrations were consistent with aircraft measurements. These values are higher than the threshold concentration of ~ 500 droplets cm-3 in clouds suitable for hygroscopic seeding, as suggested by previous studies. Therefore, this area is considered to be suitable for rain enhancement by hygroscopic seeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A historical atmospheric reanalysis from 1850 to 2015 was performed using an atmospheric general circulation model assimilating surface pressure observations archived in international databases, with perturbed observational sea surface temperatures as a lower boundary condition. Posterior spread during data assimilation provides quantitative information on the uncertainty in the historical reanalysis. The reanalysis reproduces the evolution of the three-dimensional atmosphere close to those of the operational centers. Newly archived surface pressure observations greatly reduced the uncertainties in the present reanalysis over East Asia in the early 20th century. A scheme for assimilating tropical cyclone tracks and intensities was developed. The scheme was superior to the present several reanalyses in reproducing the intensity close to the observations and the positions. The reanalysis provides possible images of atmospheric circulations before reanalyses with full-scale observations become available, and opportunities for investigating extreme events that occurred before World War II. Incorporating dynamical downscaling with a regional model that includes detailed topography and sophisticated physics is an application of historical reanalysis to reveal the details of past extreme events. Some examples of past heavy rainfall events in Japan are shown using a downscaling experiment, together with dense rainfall observations over the Japanese islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article announces the 2015 outstanding papers selected by the editorial committee of the "Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan," including "The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics" by Shinya Kobayashi et al. and "Constraint on Future Change in Global Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Due to Global Warming" by Masaki Satoh et al.

Mineral dust affects health, climate, and ecosystems in various ways. East Asia is one of the major sources of mineral dust worldwide. This study examines the year-to-year variability of dust deposition over Japan in April from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations using atmospheric and aerosol reanalysis datasets for the period from 2011 to 2017. The increased dust deposition in Japan is explained by the intensified dust transport from the Mongolian Plateau by the anomalous westerly winds associated with a deepened trough over the East Asian continent toward the northwest of the Japanese islands in the middle to lower troposphere. The enhanced dust emission over the Gobi Desert and the intensified extratropical cyclone activity are consistent with the largerthan-normal dust amount in East Asia. Comparing the dust depositions over western and northern Japan, it is suggested that the slightly different anomalous trough positions may determine whether or not a large amount of dust is carried. A further analysis using the long-term (1967 - 2022) observation data of dust in Japan supports the importance of the intensified trough over the East Asian continent. Dust flux decomposed into cyclonic and anticyclonic components showed that both vortices contribute to the eastward dust transport in East Asia. These results suggest that Japanese dust events and their variability are affected by the stationary circulation anomaly as well as the baroclinic instability waves including transient cyclones and anticyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Typhoon Krosa (2019) formed in the eastern part of the Philippine Sea and ~ 1400 km east of another typhoon, Lekima, on 6 August and made landfall in the western part of Japan's mainland on 15 August. The operational global model forecasts, which were initialized just after Krosa's formation, showed a very large uncertainty and completely failed to predict the actual track of Krosa. In this study, we investigated the causes of this large uncertainty through 101-member ensemble forecast experiments using a 28-km mesh global nonhydrostatic model. The experiments initialized at 1200 UTC 6 August showed a large uncertainty. An ensemble-based lagged correlation analysis indicated that the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) retreated further east in the members with large track forecast errors than in the members with small errors. For the members with a large track forecast error for Krosa, Krosa and Lekima approached each other by 250 km, and Krosa moved northward faster than the observation in 36 h from the initialization time. For the members with a small track forecast error for Krosa, the two typhoons approached each other by only 50 km, and the northward moving speed was comparable with that of the observation. The typhoon-center relative composite analysis exhibited that at the initialization time, the members with a large Krosa track forecast error had a larger horizontal size of Krosa, and the difference in Krosa's size was kept during the forecast period. This difference in size led to a stronger interaction between the two typhoons and the retreatment of the WNPSH, thus resulting in a fast northward moving speed for the members with a large Krosa track error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the autumn rainy season, typhoons located far from Japan sometimes cause significant precipitation in Japan. In the current study, we characterized remote precipitation events in September for 40 years from 1980 to 2019. We also analyzed cases in which remote precipitation did not occur despite approaching typhoons, as well as cases in which heavy precipitation was not affected by typhoons. We characterized the environmental fields of the remote precipitation cases by comparing them with these other two types of cases. Statistical analysis showed that remote precipitation tended to occur when the typhoons were located over the southern or southwestern oceans of mainland Japan and when the tracks of the typhoons were northward or changing to the northeast. The composite analysis of the remote precipitation cases showed that the subtropical high was retreating to the east for 2 days before the remote precipitation. By contrast, the cases in which remote precipitation did not occur showed the opposite pattern; the subtropical high was strengthening to the west when typhoons were approaching over the southern or southwestern oceans of the Japanese archipelago. Furthermore, the remote precipitation occurred to the equatorward jet streak entrance of the 200 hPa jet, whereas the 200 hPa jet streak was shifted to the west in the cases where remote precipitation did not occur. The vertical cross-section of the northward water vapor flux showed that the northward water vapor inflow from the middle troposphere was larger in cases of remote precipitation than in cases in which heavy precipitation was not caused by typhoons. In addition, dynamical analysis showed that the area of remote precipitation corresponded to the region of 800 - 600 hPa mean quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent and 925 hPa frontogenesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Torrential rain in Typhoon Hagibis caused a devastating disaster in Japan in October 2019. The precipitation was concentrated in the northern half of Hagibis during extratropical transition (ET). To elucidate the mechanisms of this asymmetric precipitation, synoptic- and mesoscale processes were mainly analyzed using the Japan Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model. The present study demonstrates that the asymmetric processes were different depending on the ET stages. When Hagibis was close to the baroclinic zone at middle latitudes on around 12 October (the frontal stage), heavy precipitation in the northeastern part of Hagibis was attributed to warm frontogenesis and quasigeostrophic ascent, as reported in many previous studies. In contrast, when Hagibis was moderately distant from the baroclinic zone on around 11 October (the prefrontal stage), heavy precipitation in the northern part occurred in a slantwise northward ascending motion in the outer region. This slantwise motion developed in a region with strong westerly vertical shear, which was enhanced between Hagibis and a westerly jet stream. Based on the analyses of potential vorticity and absolute angular momentum, this region was characterized by reduced moist symmetric stability in the lower and middle troposphere accompanied by inertial instability in the upper troposphere and conditional instability in the lower troposphere. These results provide additional insights into the time evolution of asymmetric processes during ET in the absence of a distinct upper-tropospheric trough, particularly, the slantwise motion in the prefrontal stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ultraviolet (UV) parasols are a reasonable countermeasure against heat stress as they are portable and inexpensive. This study compared the heat stress mitigation effect of a UV parasol with that of street trees and drymist spraying on a hot and humid summer day in Japan. We observed meteorological elements and calculated the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) under UV parasol, street trees, dry-mist spraying, and direct sunlight. The observed UTCI and WBGT under the UV parasol were lower than those in direct sunlight by 4.4°C and 1.3°C, respectively, because of the decrease in black-globe temperature caused by the reduced downward shortwave radiation. This demonstrated that UV parasol reduced heatstroke risk by one level. The effect of the UV parasol was = 75 % of that of the street trees from the perspective of UTCI. The street trees reduced the UTCI and WBGT by 5.9°C and 1.9°C, respectively, compared with those in direct sunlight, resulting in the reduction of heatstroke risk by one level. In contrast, dry-mist spraying did not mitigate heat stress in conditions with moderate winds. Although the results of this study were obtained from observations on a single day, comparison with earlier studies confirms that the values observed in this study are representative results on summer days in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Typhoon Jongdari (2018) took an unusual track along the circumference of an upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) before making landfall in Japan on 29 July. To investigate the effects of atmosphere-ocean interactions and interactions between the UTCL and Jongdari on the storm's track, numerical simulations were conducted with a 3-km-mesh nonhydrostatic atmosphere model and an atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled model, using different initial conditions created by adopting different start times of numerical integration. The UTCL was characterized by high potential vorticity (PV), low pressure, and low relative humidity on the 355-K isotherm surface. While the UTCL moved southwestward north of Jongdari from 25 to 27 July, simulation results indicate that Jongdari traveled counterclockwise along the circumference of the UTCL. After Jongdari moved westward, the coupled model clearly simulated sea surface cooling along the track. Jongdari weakened after making landfall while the UTCL also weakened south of Japan. In particular, latent heat flux from the sea and the resulting humidification of the upper troposphere through the convection affected the UTCL. When Jongdari redeveloped over the ocean south of Kyushu, some simulations showed that Jongdari merged with the UTCL there as a result of high PV in Jongdari and relatively low upper-tropospheric PV near the UTCL. Ocean coupling helped sustain the uppertropospheric PV near the UTCL and weakened the column of elevated PV associated with Jongdari, which affected the location of the tropopause folding transformed from the UTCL by lowering the PV column of Jongdari and weakening the upper-tropospheric outflow from the center. Because the steering flow of Jongdari was affected by the geostrophic-balanced cyclonic circulation created by the UTCL, a larger difference of the atmospheric initial conditions between the initial times had a stronger influence on track and intensity simulations of both Jongdari and UTCL than ocean coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study found that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) significantly influences the occurrence probability of extreme snowfall and precipitation in Japan during boreal winter (December-February) based on observational data and the Database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF). By analyzing d4PDF containing 90-member and 50-member ensemble historical simulations by global and high-resolution regional models, respectively, we could quantify and elucidate the geographical distribution of the probability of extreme weather in Japan related to the MJO. The d4PDF global simulations well represent the MJO and its teleconnection over the Pacific-North America region. Our results show that (1) the probability of extreme snowfall on the Sea of Japan side of northwestern Japan (SJA) increases (decreases) by approximately 20 % (30 - 40 %) associated with enhanced MJO over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (western Indian Ocean) relative to that for all winter days; (2) the extreme precipitation on the Pacific Ocean side (PAC) of Japan increases (reduces) by 40 - 50 % (approximately 30 %) when the MJO is active over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific); and (3) the extreme snowfall on the Kanto area in PAC increases by 30 - 45 % with enhanced MJO over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. Composite analysis reveals that different physical processes associated with the MJO are responsible for extremes in the three regions. The MJO intensifies cold air intrusion from Siberia into Japan associated with a more frequent blocking over East Siberia, causing extreme snowfall in SJA. The MJO stimulates the explosive development of extratropical cyclones due to enhanced moisture flux convergence, leading to extreme precipitation in PAC and extreme snowfall in Kanto. Furthermore, the Kanto snowfall is partly related to a cold air outflow from the blocking induced by the MJO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A numerical simulation of Typhoon Faxai (1915), which made landfall with a central pressure of 960 hPa in the Kanto region of Japan, was conducted using a nonhydrostatic numerical model with a 1-km grid spacing. Faxai sustained a symmetric structure until the landfall and caused severe damage due to strong winds. The simulation successfully simulated the realistic track and intensity of Faxai for 48 h around landfall. The simulated intensity was strong until the time of landfall, and the spatial size of the vortex was small. The structure of the simulated Faxai, identified as having an axisymmetric flow field and eyewall, was similar to that of a welldeveloped tropical cyclone (TC) in the tropics. Around the TC center, the surface latent heat flux was over 300 W m-2 until landfall, and the vertical wind shear was less than 9 m s-1 between the 1.5- and 12.0-km altitudes, which is relatively weak at midlatitudes. The maximum potential intensity (MPI) was calculated using environmental parameters around the simulated TC. The simulated and best track TC intensities exceeded the MPI for approximately 12 h before landfall, that is, the TC was in a superintense state. The superintensity was mainly caused by the presence of supergradient wind, which, in turn, resulted from the strong intensity and axisymmetric structure of the typhoon. The simulated TC satisfies the assumptions for the formulation of the MPI during the quasi-steady state, except for the gradient wind balance, implying that the structure of a TC is similar to that of a developed TC in the tropics. The present analyses suggest that the strong intensity of Faxai results from favorable environmental conditions and vortex structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantitatively examined the relative importance of Rossby wave breaking (RWB) east of Japan to a formation of the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern compared with that of tropical atmospheric and oceanographic variabilities. First, cases of the positive and negative PJ patterns are classified into those with and without the RWB occurrence. The result of the classification indicates that the cases of the positive PJ pattern triggered by the RWB account for approximately 20 % of the whole cases of the positive PJ pattern. The number of positive PJ cases with the RWB further accounts for approximately 80 % of those in the cases associated with the RWB. Results of a lag composite analysis and the related Q-vector diagnosis for the cases of the positive PJ pattern with the presence of RWB show that the RWB east of Japan promotes the formation of the PJ pattern through the southwestward intrusion of high potential vorticity air mass toward the subtropical western North Pacific (WNP) and the consequent dynamically induced enhanced convection over the region, consistent with results of previous studies. By contrast, the composite for the cases the negative PJ pattern accompanied by the RWB indicates that the RWB-related upper-tropospheric zonally elongated anomalous circulation and basin-wide sea surface temperature (SST) warming over the Indian Ocean can contribute suppressed convective activities over the subtropical WNP and the consequent formation of the negative PJ pattern although the RWB occurs. The composite for the cases of positive and negative PJ patterns with the absence of RWB further indicates that the convective activities over the subtropical WNP move northwestward with time, causing the formation of the PJ pattern. The formation of the PJ pattern with the absence of RWB is also closely associated with tropical SST and phase of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, illuminating "pure" tropical impacts on the formation of a PJ pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationships between the radar reflectivity factor for horizontal polarization (Zh) at the X-band and the liquid-equivalent snowfall rate (R) are presented for six hydrometeor classes of solid precipitation. These relationships were derived by comparing the values of Zh, R, and the hydrometeor class obtained by performing simultaneous observations in Niigata Prefecture, Japan. The relationships were assumed to be of the form Zh = B R1.67, where B denotes an experimentally determined coefficient. The values of R and the hydrometeor class were determined using a high-resolution precipitation gauge and an optical disdrometer, respectively, set up inside a windshield net. The average Zh value was determined for an analysis area of approximately 100 km2, located upwind of the ground-observation site. The prevailing hydrometeor class, its representative size, and the fall speed, along with the average Zh, R, and B values, were determined for 48 cases considered over three winters. The average B value for the "heavily rimed snow aggregate" was smaller than that for the "rimed snow aggregate". The largest B value was derived for a case of aggregates of unrimed dendritic particles (unrimed-D class). The case involving aggregates of unrimed low-temperature-type crystals (unrimed-C class) showed the smallest B value. For graupel cases, the average B value was roughly twice that of the rimed and heavily rimed snow aggregate classes and much smaller than that of the unrimed-D class. Snow aggregates demonstrated a stronger or weaker backscattering than graupel depending on the riming degree and types of constituent ice crystals in the X-band. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2018, Typhoon Trami made landfall in Japan and maintained its intensity for a few days, then rapidly weakened after its recurvature. Subsequently, Typhoon Kong-Rey passed through the waters cooled by Trami while rapidly weakening. The region where both typhoons rapidly weakened is a region rich in oceanic mesoscale eddies overlying the Subtropical Countercurrent. To understand the role of a cold-core eddy, in the intensity change of these two typhoons, we examined the similarity and differences between the two typhoons, utilizing numerical simulations with a 2-km-mesh nonhydrostatic atmosphere model and an atmospheric-wave-ocean coupled model. Sensitivity experiments were performed by assuming a significant magnitude on the weakening of Trami during the mature phase; for example, we embedded an artificial cold-core eddy with a magnitude not based on in situ observations to gauge initial oceanic conditions. In contrast for Kong-Rey, nine ensemble simulations for initial atmospheric conditions were conducted instead of different-day initial oceanic conditions. The simulated rapid weakening of two typhoons was related to the low upper-ocean heat content caused by typhoon-induced sea surface cooling (SSC). Most simulations for Trami and Kong-Rey show a tendency of overdevelopment during the mature or weakening phase; the overdevelopment of Trami is caused by insufficiently simulated SSC and the embedded artificial cold eddy, which promoted the SSC; whereas, the overdevelopment of Kong-Rey is related to the failure of track simulation. A reasonable simulated track of Kong-Rey required greater time traveling over the Trami-induced SSC area to enhance weakening by reduction in inner-core moisture transport toward the center near the surface and in the inflow boundary layer on the upshear side. The reductions in downward motion in the center and the associated adiabatic heating were closely related to weakening in both typhoons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the impacts of evaporative cooling from raindrops on precipitation over western Japan associated with the Baiu front during a heavy rainfall event from 5 to 8 July 2018. We conducted analyses of the dynamic and thermodynamic features of the stationary Baiu front using the Japanese 55-year reanalysis. During this period, large amounts of water vapor were continuously transported to the stationary Baiu front, supporting the record-breaking rainfall. The 299K isentropic surface was identified as the frontal surface. Along the isentropic surface, warm moist air adiabatically ascended, became saturated at an altitude of approximately 500 m, and initiated active precipitation systems. We found that the diabatic cooling near the tip of the frontal surface played an important role in retaining the position of the frontal surface and stalling its northward retreat. Additionally, numerical sensitivity experiments were conducted to examine the impacts of evaporative cooling and topography on heavy rainfall formation using a cloud-resolving non-hydrostatic numerical model (the Japan Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model: JMA-NHM) with a horizontal resolution of 3 km. A heavy precipitation area extending from the Chugoku region to central Kinki was simulated regardless of whether the terrain was flattened or not. Precipitation formed primarily as a result of updrafts above a frontal surface at a potential temperature of 300 K. This precipitation area shifted northward by more than 100 km when raindrop evaporation was excluded from the experiment. Raindrop evaporation suppressed the northward retreat of the frontal surface by maintaining cold airmass amounts below the frontal surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the roles of heat fluxes from the Kuroshio Current in enhancing a frontal convective rainband associated with an extratropical cyclone that brought record-breaking heavy rainfall to Miyake Island, Japan, in January 2017. A simulation of the rainband (control experiment) and sensitivity experiments without the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the Kuroshio Current were conducted using a regional cloud-resolving model. The rainband developed along a non-classic front (outer front), which formed to the north of a warm front associated with the cyclone. The control experiment reproduced the intensity and migration of the rainband well. As the rainband developed, the heat fluxes from the Kuroshio Current became evident around the cold conveyor belt of the cyclone to the south of the rainband. The latent heat fluxes were ~ 2.3 times larger than the sensible heat fluxes. Comparisons between the control and sensitivity experiments demonstrated that the heat fluxes, especially the latent heat fluxes, enhanced the rainband. The sensible heat fluxes slightly intensified convective instability in the lower troposphere, whereas the latent heat fluxes significantly increased the near-surface moisture content and the convective instability. A frontal updraft along the outer front released the increased convective instability, which intensified the moisture convergence, condensation, and updraft, enhancing the rainband. The findings show that the heat fluxes from the Kuroshio Current, especially the latent heat fluxes, enhanced the heavy rainfallproducing rainband by increasing the moisture content and the convective instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliability information of satellite precipitation products is required for various applications. This study describes and evaluates a reliability flag of the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation Near-Real-Time precipitation product (GSMaP_NRT). This flag was developed to characterize the reliability of GSMaP_NRT data simply and qualitatively by considering its algorithm characteristics. The reliability at each pixel is represented by any one of ten levels (10 being the best and 1 the worst) by considering three major factors: 1) "surface type reliability"--which takes into account that estimation of rainfall using passive microwave sensors is better over the oceans than over land and coastal areas; 2) "low-temperature reliability"--which takes into account the lower reliability due to surface snow cover in low-temperature conditions; and 3) "Moving Vector with Kalman Filter (MVK) propagation reliability"--which means that the reliability gets worse with the increase in time since the last overpass of the passive microwave sensor. To evaluate the utility of the reliability flag, statistical indices are calculated for each reliability level using gauge-calibrated ground radar data around Japan. It is found that the reliability flag represents the differences in GSMaP accuracy: the accuracy worsens as the reliability decreases. The GSMaP errors exhibit seasonal changes that are well represented by the ten levels of the reliability flag, indicating that the reliability flag can be used to catch seasonal variations in GSMaP accuracy due to changes in environmental factors. This study also raises the possibility of improving the reliability flag by using information related to heavy orographic rainfall. It is shown how the error features of heavy orographic rainfall differ from those of the total rainfall, and it is suggested that heavy orographic rainfall information can be utilized to further improve the reliability flag. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the predictability of an enhanced monsoon trough, which is accompanied by a largescale cyclone in the lower troposphere, south of Japan seen in late August 2016. The monsoon trough is found to be enhanced by a meandering of the Asian jet and a consequent southwestward intrusion of upper-level high potential vorticity associated with a Rossby wave breaking east of Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency's operational one-month ensemble prediction during the forecast period of a week underestimates the intensity of the Rossby wave breaking and fails to predict the enhanced monsoon trough. A simple sensitivity analysis based on ensemble singular vectors indicates that initial perturbations over the Bering Sea and near the Asian jet entrance region can efficiently grow and propagate toward the region to the south of Japan, contributing to maximize the perturbations of the enhanced monsoon trough. The time evolution of the perturbations propagating toward the region to the south of Japan is consistent with that of the ensemble spread during the forecast period. Perturbed hindcast experiments were conducted with the initial perturbations obtained from the simple sensitivity analysis. The monsoon trough to the south of Japan in the perturbed experiment is significantly more enhanced than the unperturbed experiment, supporting the simple sensitivity analysis. These results indicate a crucial contribution of the initial perturbations associated with the Rossby wave breaking and near the Asian jet entrance region to the limited predictability of the enhanced monsoon trough in late August 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the predictability of an enhanced monsoon trough south of Japan in late August 2016, which is accompanied by Rossby wave propagation over Eurasia and a consequent anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking east of Japan, with a relaxation technique using an atmospheric general circulation model. Three types of the relaxation experiments are conducted, with nudging the model forecast in the upper troposphere toward reanalysis, for regions of the Rossby wave breaking east of Japan, the Rossby wave propagation over Eurasia, and both the regions from Eurasia to the east of Japan. All types of the relaxation experiments show improved reproducibility of the enhanced monsoon trough, which the operational one-month ensemble prediction in Japan Meteorological Agency failed to predict. Compared with a result of a control experiment, the relaxation experiments show the more amplified Rossby wave propagation over Eurasia and Rossby wave breaking east of Japan, as seen in the reanalysis. The upper-level wave amplification contributes to the improved reproducibility of the enhanced monsoon trough, through that of southwestward intrusion of upper-level high potential vorticity airmass toward the southeast of Japan. The results of relaxation experiments indicate primary and secondary contributions from corrected forecast errors of the Rossby wave breaking east of Japan and the Rossby wave propagation over Eurasia to the predictability of the monsoon trough, respectively. Their relative contributions to the enhanced monsoon trough are consistent with a result of ensemble-based simple sensitivity analysis shown in a related previous study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, future changes in the rainy season in East Asia are projected based on massive ensemble simulations of about 100 members with a 60-km mesh global atmospheric model (the 60-km model hereinafter) called the "Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)". For the present-climate, historical observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to the 60-km model. In the future, 4°C warmer climate relative to the preindustrial climate, six different SST distributions projected by Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are given to the 60-km model. In the future, summer precipitation will generally increase in most regions of East Asia, but will decrease over western Japan. Precipitation decreases in June around 30 - 35°N over China, Korea and Japan. The Probability Density Function directly was derived from the massive ensemble simulations at each grid point in June and revealed that the most intense precipitation increase will occur in some regions where moderate precipitation decreases will take place in terms of the simple ensemble average. In western Japan, the onset of rainy season will delay and the retreat will occur earlier, resulting in a shorter rainy season. The decrease of precipitation in June over western Japan may be attributed to the counter-effect of the convergence of moisture to the south of Japan, originating in the southward shift of the western North Pacific subtropical high. The projected decrease in June precipitation over western Japan is confirmed to be robust, regardless of model differences in horizontal resolution, convection schemes, and with/without air-sea interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

La Niña is the negative phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It occurs in the equatorial Pacific, and events known as multiyear La Niña often persists for more than two years. During a conventional La Niña event, the seasonal cycle of surface temperature over Japan is amplified (i.e., hotter summer and colder winter than normal years), but the influence of multiyear events on temperatures over Japan is unclear. In this study, we evaluate the teleconnection associated with multiyear La Niña events. Our research uses composite analyses of observations, reanalysis data, and a large ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations for 1951-2010, driven by observed boundary conditions. We propose two distinct mechanisms involved in multiyear La Niña events that cause hot summers over Japan. Observational data composites show significant positive temperature anomalies over Japan in the boreal summer season preceding the two consecutive La Niña events reaching their mature phases. This robust summer signal can be reproduced by AGCM large-ensemble simulations, indicating that it is forced by multiyear La Niña. The time evolution of the anomalous summer temperature over Japan differs between the first and second years of multiyear La Niña. In the first summer, warm conditions occur in August-October in the southwestern part of Japan, due to anomalous southwesterly winds in the lower troposphere. This atmospheric circulation anomaly is attributable to a La Niña-induced decrease in precipitation over the equatorial Pacific. In the second summer, warm anomalies occur in June-August over northeastern Japan, and these are accompanied by an anomalous barotropic high-pressure induced by negative precipitation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific. The seasonal march in atmospheric background states and the delayed effect of a preceding El Niño may explain the distinct teleconnection during multiyear La Niña. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to explore large-scale atmospheric factors causing heavy rainfall events that occurred widely in western Japan, a composite analysis of atmospheric fields during the past heavy rainfall events in the region is conducted using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis. During heavy rainfall events, atmospheric fields are characterized by an upper-tropospheric trough over the Korean Peninsula (KP), an upper-tropospheric ridge to the east of Japan, a surface high-pressure system to the southeast of Japan, and southwesterly moisture flux. The composite analysis indicates that a clear wave train due to quasi-stationary Rossby wave packet propagation (RWPP) along the polar front jet over Siberia tends to occur just before extreme events. Further analysis considering various time scale variabilities in the atmosphere reveals that surface high-pressure anomalies to the southeast of Japan are dominated by variability with a 25 - 90 day period, whereas variability with an 8 - 25 day period dominates lower-pressure anomalies over the East China Sea (ECS) in relation to the development of the upper-tropospheric trough around the KP. We also investigate atmospheric fields during an extreme heavy rainfall event that occurred in early July 2018 (HR18). Atmospheric features during HR18 are generally similar to those of the other heavy rainfall events. However, a remarkable RWPP occurred along the subtropical jet (STJ) in late June 2018 and intensified a surface high-pressure system to the southeast of Japan. Additionally, a low-pressure system with an 8 - 25 day period to the south of Japan developed in association with wave breaking induced by the remarkable RWPP along the STJ and propagated northwestward toward the ECS and then to Japan. The simultaneous development of high- and low-pressure systems contributed to the extreme southerly moisture flux into western Japan. HR18 is also characterized by a sharp upper-tropospheric trough over the KP that is dominated by high frequency variability with a period < 8 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To reveal a maintenance mechanism for Rossby wave breaking (RWB) east of Japan and Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern, which are triggered due to quasi-stationary Rossby wave propagation along the Asian jet, the past 44 RWB cases east of Japan are analyzed using a reanalysis dataset. A comparison between the composites of seven persistent and seven non-persistent cases, which are classified based on the duration of the RWB and PJ pattern, indicates that the persistent case demonstrates stronger and longer-lived quasi-stationary Rossby wave propagation along the Asian jet. The subsequent stronger RWB in the persistent case causes the consequential formation of the more enhanced PJ pattern through the stronger high potential vorticity intrusion toward the subtropical western North Pacific. The persistent case further demonstrates a persistent northward-tilting vertical structure of the anomalous anticyclone east of Japan, accompanied by the enhanced anomalous warm air advection in the lower to middle troposphere north of the anomalously extended North Pacific Subtropical High associated with the PJ pattern. The diagnosis of the Q-vector and partial correlation analysis indicate that the anomalous warm air advection in the middle troposphere is closely associated with dynamically induced anomalous ascent from Japan to the east by an adiabatic process. Enhanced anomalous moisture flux convergence from Japan to the east, which is due to the moisture inflow along the fringe of North Pacific Subtropical High from the subtropical western North Pacific, also causes the anomalous ascent over the region by a diabatic process. A simple correlation analysis reveals nearly equivalent associations of the adiabatic and diabatic factors with the anomalous ascent. The anomalous ascent contributes to enhanced and persistent RWB through a negative vorticity tendency due to vortex squashing in the upper troposphere, which further contributes to the enhanced and persistent PJ pattern in the persistent case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ozone loss pathways and their rates in the ozone quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which is simulated by a chemistry-climate model developed by the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan, are evaluated using an objective pathway analysis program (PAP). The analyzed chemical system contains catalytic cycles caused by NOx, HOx, ClOx, Ox, and BrOx. PAP quantified the rates of all significant catalytic ozone loss cycles, and evaluated the partitioning among these cycles. The QBO amplitude of the sum of all cycles amounts to about 4 and 14% of the annual mean of the total ozone loss rate at 10 and 20 hPa, respectively. The contribution of catalytic cycles to the QBO of the ozone loss rate is found to be as follows: NOx cycles contribute the largest fraction (50 - 85%) of the QBO amplitude of the total ozone loss rate; HOx cycles are the second-largest (20 - 30%) below 30 hPa and the third-largest (about 10%) above 20 hPa; Ox cycles rank third (5 - 20%) below 30 hPa and second (about 20%) above 20 hPa; ClOx cycles rank fourth (5 - 10%); and BrOx cycles are almost negligible. The relative contribution of the NOx and Ox cycles to the QBO amplitude of ozone loss differs by up to 10% and 20%, respectively, from their contribution to the annual mean ozone loss rate. The ozone QBO at 20 hPa is mainly driven by ozone transport, which then alters the ozone loss rate. In contrast, the ozone QBO at 10 hPa is driven chemically by NOx and the temperature dependence of [O]/[O3], which results from the temperature dependence of the reaction O + O2 + M O 3 + M. In addition, the ozone QBO at 10 hPa is influenced by the overhead ozone column, which affects [O]/[O3] (through ozone photolysis) and the ozone production rate (through oxygen photolysis). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation over Japan under a future warmer climate using an ensemble projection generated by a non-hydrostatic regional climate model with a resolution of 5 km (NHRCM05) under the RCP8.5 scenario. NHRCM05 reproduces TC precipitation and TC intensity more accurately than does a general circulation model with a resolution of 20 km. The number of TCs approaching Japan is projected to decrease under the future climate, while the TC precipitation rate increases. As these two effects cancel each other out, total TC precipitation, and the frequency of the moderate TC precipitation that is usual under the present climate, shows no significant change. On the other hand, the frequency of extreme TC precipitation increases significantly because the intensification of the TC precipitation rate outweighs the reduction in TC frequency. The increase in the TC precipitation rate is caused primarily by the increase in water vapor around the TCs, which in turn results from the increase in environmental water vapor. The intensification and structural changes to TCs also contribute to the enhanced TC precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the summer of 2016, 14 cases of jumping cirrus (JC) were observed around the Kanto region in Japan by ground-based, visible-light cameras. The cameras were set at the summit of Mt. Fuji and National Defense Academy (Kanagawa, Japan), and 15-second time-lapse photography was continually taken for the period. The location and spatial scale of the JC were calculated by measurements using the photometry of background stars in the nighttime and the geostationary meteorological satellite Himawari-8 infrared imagery. The environmental conditions of the JC were also investigated using radiosonde and Himawari-8 visible and infrared measurements. Comparing our cases to the JC in the United States of America (USA) reproduced by a three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic cloud model from previous studies, their motions, morphology, spatial and temporal scales showed similarities, although the horizontal scale of the JC and the magnitude of the underlying convection was relatively smaller in our cases. The sounding by the radiosonde in the vicinity of the storms showed that 3 of the 14 cases reached the stratosphere. However, the hydration of the lower stratosphere was not supported by analysis of the brightness temperature difference (BTD) between 6.2 and 10.4 μm measured by Himawari-8. The averaged wind shear across the range of the jumping heights above the anvil was -1.1 m s-1 km-1. The maximum value of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) of the 14 cases was 1384 J kg-1, which is several times smaller than those of the thunderstorm cases observed in the USA in previous numerical JC studies. This indicates that JC occurs from the cumulonimbus anvil top even if the convection is relatively weak. The motion of JC observed distinguishby visible-light cameras shows that it can transport moisture above the tops of the anvils of convective clouds regardless of its altitude as cloud ice appears to be sublimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aircraft landing and taking off at Narita International Airport in Japan frequently report low-level wind shear (LLWS), which is a local variation in the wind vector, and turbulence when the prevailing wind is southwesterly, which is crosswind to the runway. On 20 June 2012, just before touchdown, an arriving aircraft at this airport encountered LLWS that consisted of a sudden change in the wind vector from a headwind component of 5 knots (2.6 m s-1) to a tailwind component of 10 knots (5.1 m s-1). This caused a rather hard landing. As the aircraft approached, none of cumulonimbus clouds, fronts, or wind shear lines were observed around the airport. Further analysis of the data measured by the landing aircraft and observations made by the Doppler lidar revealed that the LLWS was caused by horizontal roll vortices that developed in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the Shimofusa tableland surrounding the airport. The axes of these horizontal roll vortices were nearly parallel to the mean wind direction, while their horizontal and vertical scales were approximately 800 m and 500 m, respectively. In our present study, we demonstrate that the existence of such horizontal roll vortices that cause LLWS can be effectively detected by a single Doppler lidar that utilizes backscattering from aerosols. Although the LLWS associated with horizontal roll vortices has a smaller magnitude than those caused by a microburst, gust front, or front, landing aircraft often encounter these horizontal roll vortices just before touchdown with a much higher probability than other phenomena since horizontal roll vortices occur at a horizontal spacing of approximately 800 m over a wide area during the daytime hours of a clear day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming experiments using three different 60 km mesh atmospheric global circulation models are studied to characterize ensemble mean future changes in monthly East Asian precipitation for June to August. During the summer, wetting and drying effects due to changes in the mean vertical motion play a key role in future precipitation changes, as does the "wet-get-wetter" effect due to increased moisture. The former processes are related adiabatically to the projected modification of 500 hPa horizontal atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by two cyclonic circulation anomalies extending over the eastern Eurasian Continent (C1) and the western North Pacific Ocean (C2) for each month. Over Japan, the western edge of C2 shifts from a region south of the Japanese Islands to northern Japan during June to August, representing a delayed northward movement or southward shift of the westerly jet over the western North Pacific in the future compared with the present-day climatology. Most regions of Japan lie within the northeasterly wind and associated downward-motion zones of C2, leading to significant uncertainties in future precipitation over Japan by the offset against the "wet-get-wetter" effect and possibly even a future decrease in precipitation. A wetter future climate is anticipated under weak subsidence or upward vertical motion zone of C2, such as western Japan in August away from C2, and the Southwest Islands of Japan in June in the C2 southwesterly wind zone. Over the eastern Eurasian Continent, C1 is distributed mainly over northeastern China in June and over central and southern China in July and August, respectively. During these months, most of the eastern regions are located within the southwesterly to southeasterly wind zone of C1, indicating wet future conditions due to enhanced upward motion. This tendency drives a further increase in precipitation in future wetter East Asian climate via the "wet-get-wetter" effect and the increased evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we describe the spatial distribution of the melting layer (ML) in a winter stratiform precipitation system associated with a south-coast cyclone (SCC) on 30 January 2015 over the Kanto Plain, Japan, using an X-band polarimetric radar at Funabashi operated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT). The detailed horizontal distribution of surface precipitation types based on weather reports from citizens provided by Weathernews Inc. (WNI reports) was also investigated in relation to the ML structure. Surface precipitation in the Kanto region started with rain and then changed to snow around Tokyo. According to WNI reports, a large dry snow area formed around Tokyo by 0900 Japan Standard Time (JST; UTC + 9 hours), whereas surface rainfall continued in the southeast of the Kanto Plain (most of Chiba and the southern part of Kanagawa). A boundary line between the surface dry snow and rain areas became clear in the eastern part of Kanagawa and the northwestern part of Chiba. This boundary then gradually moved inland. Polarimetric ML signatures suggesting the presence of melting snow were continuously observed above the rainfall area in the southeast of the Kanto Plain. The polarimetric ML signatures, on the other hand, approached the ground near the surface dry snow-rain boundary while the surface snowfall was predominant around Tokyo. During the mature snowfall period around Tokyo, the ML vertically extended below 1 km above sea level (ASL) near the surface dry snow-rain boundary, which indicates the presence of a local horizontal temperature gradient and a surrounding ~ 0°C near-isothermal layer. It is suggested that this vertically extending ML coincided with the edge of a cold air mass in the lower atmosphere, which often forms during snowfall associated with SCCs in the Kanto region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate simulation of urban snow accumulation/melting processes is important to provide reliable information about climate change in snowy urban areas. The Japan Meteorological Agency operates a square prism urban canopy (SPUC) model within their regional model to simulate the urban atmosphere. However, presently, this model takes no account of snow processes. Therefore, in this study, we enhanced the SPUC by introducing a snowpack scheme, and assessed the simulated snow over Japanese urban areas by comparing the snow depths from the enhanced SPUC and those from a simple biosphere (iSiB) model with the observations. Snowpack schemes based on two approaches were implemented. The diagnostic approach (sSPUCdgn) uses empirical factors for snow temperature and melting/freezing amounts and the Penman equation for heat fluxes, whereas the prognostic variaapproach (sSPUCprg) calculates snow temperatures using heat fluxes estimated from bulk equations. Both snowpack schemes enabled the model to accurately reproduce the seasonal variations and peaks in snow depth, but it is necessary to use sSPUCprg if we wish to consider the physical processes in the snow layer. Compared to iSiB, sSPUCprg resulted in a good performance for the seasonal variations in snow depth and the error fell to 20 %. While iSiB overestimated the snow depth, a cold bias of over 1°C appeared in the daily mean temperature, which can be attributed to excessive decreases in the snow surface temperature. sSPUCprg reduces the bias by a different calculation method for the snow surface temperature and by including heated building walls without snow; consequently, the simulated snow depth is improved. With an increase in the correlation coefficient, sSPUCprg generated a relationship between the seasonal variations in snowfall and snow depth close to the observed relationship. Therefore, the simulation accuracy of snowfall becomes more crucial for simulating the surface snow processes precisely by using the enhanced SPUC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used the JRA-55 reanalysis dataset for analyzing the structure and environment of extratropical cyclones (ECs) that spawned tornadoes (tornadic ECs: TECs) between 1961 and 2011 in Japan. Composite analysis findings indicated that the differences between the structure and environment of TECs, and those of ECs that did not spawn tornadoes (non-tornadic ECs: NTECs), vary with the seasons. In spring (March-May), TECs are associated with stronger upper-level potential vorticity and colder mid-level temperature than NTECs. The colder air at the mid level contributes to the increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) of TECs. TECs in winter (December-February: DJF) and those northward of 40°N in autumn (September-November: SON) are accompanied with larger CAPE than are NTECs. The larger CAPE for TECs in DJF is caused by larger moisture and warmer temperature at low levels and that for TECs northward of 40°N in SON (NSON) is caused by the colder mid-level temperature associated with an upper-level trough. The distribution of the energy helicity index also shows significant differences between TECs and NTECs for DJF and NSON. On the contrary, the distribution of the 0-1 km storm-relative environmental helicity (SREH) showed no significant differences between TECs and NTECs in most seasons except DJF. A comparison of TECs between Japan and the United States (US) shows that SREH and CAPE are noticeably larger in the US. These differences possibly occur because TECs in the US (Japan) develop over land (ocean), which exerts more (less) surface friction and diurnal heating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographical distributions of heavy snowfall, especially in the Pacific Ocean side of Japan, have not been previously elucidated due to low occurrence frequency of heavy snowfall and limited number of snow observation points. This study investigates the characteristics of synoptic conditions for heavy daily snowfall from western to northeastern Japan in the present climate, analyzing high-resolution regional climate ensemble experiments with 5-km grid spacing. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the 10-ensemble members of the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) historical experiments are applied to the lateral boundary conditions of the regional climate model. Dynamical downscaling using d4PDF (d4PDF-DS) enabled us to evaluate much heavier snowfall events than those simulated by dynamical downscaling using JRA-55 (JRA55-DS). Over the Sea of Japan side, heavy snowfall occurs due to cold air outbreaks, while over the Pacific Ocean side, heavy snowfall is brought about by extratropical cyclones passing along the Pacific Ocean coast. A comparison between JRA55-DS and d4PDF-DS indicated that heavier snowfall can occur due to more developed extratropical cyclones and enhanced cold air damming in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The geographical distributions of extremely heavy snowfall are different between two typical synoptic conditions, i.e., cold air outbreaks and extratropical cyclones. The difference is much clearer in the extremely heavy snowfall events than in all snowfall events. Heavy daily snowfall occurs in January and February on the Pacific Ocean side, in December and January on the Sea of Japan side, and in November and March in high mountainous areas. Saturated water vapor pressure is largest around 0°C under the snowing conditions. Synoptic conditions from late fall to winter are closely related to preferable conditions for heavy snowfall over the mountainous areas where the surface air temperature is much less than 0°C in the heavy snowfall events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high temporal and spatial resolutions of geostationary satellite observations achieved by recent technological advancements have facilitated the derivation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), even in a tropical cyclone (TC) wherein the winds abruptly change. This study used TCs in the western North Pacific basin to investigate the ability of upper tropospheric AMVs to estimate the TC intensity and structure. We first examined the relationships between the cloud-top wind fields captured by 6-hourly upper tropospheric AMVs derived from images of the Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) and the surface maximum sustained wind (MSW) of the Japan Meteorological Agency's best-track data for 44 TCs during 2011-2014. The correlation between the maximum tangential winds of the upper tropospheric AMVs (UMaxWinds) and MSWs was high, approximately 0.73, suggesting that the cyclonic circulation near the cloud top was intensified by the upward transport of absolute angular momentum within the TC inner core. The upper tropospheric AMVs also revealed that the mean radii of UMaxWinds and the maximum radial outflows shifted inward as the TC intensification rate became large, implying that the low-level inflow was strong for TCs undergoing rapid intensification. We further examined the possibility of estimating the MSW using 30-min-interval UMaxWinds derived from Himawari-8 target observations, which have been used to track TCs throughout their lifetimes. A case study considering Typhoon Lionrock (1610) showed that the UMaxWinds captured the changes in the cyclonic circulation near the cloud top within the inner core on a timescale shorter than 1 day. It was apparent that the increase in the UMaxWind was associated with the intensification of the TC warm core and the shrinkage of UMaxWind radius. These results suggest that Himawari-8 AMVs include useful information about TC intensification and related structural changes to support the TC intensity analysis and structure monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We reviewed the long-term trends and inter-annual variations in the surface shortwave irradiance in China and Japan. Pyranometer observations revealed decreases followed by increases in the shortwave irradiance in China and Japan between the 1960s and 2000s, while obvious long-term trends were not evident in the satellite observations after 1983. In China, surface shortwave irradiance decreased from 1961 until around 1990, but then began to increase. In Japan, on the contrary, the decreasing trend stopped in the 1960s, with little inter-annual variation during the 1970s and 1980s, and an increase began around 1990. The causes of the differences between the shortwave irradiance trends in China and Japan were ascribed to an increase in light-absorbing aerosols in China that began in the 1960s and a decrease in absorbing aerosols in Japan that began in the late 1970s. Absorbing aerosols decrease both direct and diffuse radiation, while non-absorbing aerosols decrease direct radiation but increase diffuse radiation. Although these aerosol influences are generally found under clear sky conditions, absorbing aerosols could have direct effects even under cloudy sky conditions. The trends of surface shortwave irradiance in China and Japan are in line with the so-called global dimming and brightening dimming processes, although the phases of the minimum periods in the two regions slightly differed. An increase in anthropogenic aerosol was responsible for the variation in the shortwave irradiance through the direct radiative effect of aerosol in the polluted area, while indirect radiative effects, i.e., changes in cloud cover due to an increase in cloud condensation nuclei, dominated in pristine areas. The effects of other factors, such as variations in water vapor and natural aerosol levels, appear to be small compared to the effects of cloud and anthropogenic aerosols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]