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Background: Reducing cigarettes per day may lower the risk of lung cancer compared with continuing to smoke at the same intensity. Other changes in smoking behaviors, such as increasing cigarette consumption or quitting for a period and relapsing, may also affect lung cancer risk., Methods: We examined changes in smoking status and cigarettes per day among 24 613 Finnish male smokers aged 50-69 years who participated in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study. Longitudinal data on smoking were collected during study follow-up visits 3 times a year (approximately every 4 months) between 1985 and 1993. Incident lung cancer patients through 2012 were identified by the Finnish Cancer Registry. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression., Results: Compared with smoking 20 cigarettes per day continuously across the intervention period, reducing an average of 5 cigarettes per day per year while smoking was associated with a 20% lower risk of lung cancer (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.90). A substantially lower risk of lung cancer was also observed when participants smoked at 50% (RR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.57 to 0.90) and 10% (RR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.83) of study visits, relative to smoked at 100% of study visits., Conclusions: Smokers may lower their risk of lung cancer by reducing smoking intensity (cigarettes per day while smoking) and the time they smoke. However, quitting smoking completely is the most effective way for smokers to reduce their risk of lung cancer., (Published by Oxford University Press 2024.)

Background: In the United States, lung cancer death rates have been declining for decades, primarily as a result of pronounced decreases in cigarette smoking. It is unclear, however, whether there have been similar declines in mortality rates of lung cancer unrelated to smoking. We estimated trends in US lung cancer death rates attributable and not attributable to smoking from 1991 to 2018., Methods: The study included 30- to 79-year-olds in the National Health Interview Survey who were linked to the National Death Index, 1991-2014. Adjusted hazard ratios for smoking status and lung cancer death were estimated, and age-specific population attributable fractions were calculated. Annual population attributable fractions were multiplied by annual US national lung cancer mortality, partitioning rates into smoking-attributable and smoking-unrelated lung cancer deaths. All statistical tests were 2-sided., Results: During 1991-2018, the proportion of never smokers increased among both men (35.1%-54.6%) and women (54.0%-65.4%). Compared with those who had ever smoked, those who had never smoked had 86% lower risk (hazard ratio = 0.14; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.12 to 0.16) of lung cancer death. The fraction of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking decreased from 81.4% (95% CI = 78.9 to 81.4) to 74.7% (95% CI = 78.1 to 71.4). Smoking-attributable lung cancer death rates declined 2.7% per year (95% CI = ‒2.9% to ‒2.5%) and smoking-unrelated lung cancer death rates declined 1.8% per year (95% CI = ‒2.0% to ‒1.5%); these declines have accelerated in recent years., Conclusions: An increasing proportion of lung cancer deaths are unrelated to smoking based on declines in smoking prevalence. Smoking-unrelated lung cancer death rates have declined, however, perhaps because of decreases in secondhand smoke and air pollution exposure as well as treatment improvements., (Published by Oxford University Press 2023.)

Background: Studying carcinogens in tobacco and nontobacco sources may be key to understanding the pathogenesis and geographic distribution of esophageal cancer., Methods: The Golestan Cohort Study has been conducted since 2004 in a region with high rates of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. For this nested study, the cases comprised of all incident cases by January 1, 2018; controls were matched to the case by age, sex, residence, time in cohort, and tobacco use. We measured urinary concentrations of 33 exposure biomarkers of nicotine, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, and tobacco-specific nitrosamines. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for associations between the 90th vs the 10th percentiles of the biomarker concentrations and incident esophageal squamous cell carcinoma., Results: Among individuals who did not currently use tobacco (148 cases and 163 controls), 2 acrolein metabolites, 2 acrylonitrile metabolites, 1 propylene oxide metabolite, and one 1,3-butadiene metabolite were significantly associated with incident esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (adjusted odds ratios between 1.8 and 4.3). Among tobacco users (57 cases and 63 controls), metabolites of 2 other volatile organic compounds (styrene and xylene) were associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 6.2 and 9.0, respectively). In tobacco users, 2 tobacco-specific nitrosamines (NNN and N'-Nitrosoanatabine) were also associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Suggestive associations were seen with some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (especially 2-hydroxynaphthalene) in nonusers of tobacco products and other tobacco-specific nitrosamines in tobacco users., Conclusion: These novel associations based on individual-level data and samples collected many years before cancer diagnosis, from a population without occupational exposure, have important public health implications., (Published by Oxford University Press 2023.)

Background: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been inconsistently associated with breast cancer incidence, however, few studies have considered historic exposure when levels were higher., Methods: Outdoor residential PM2.5 concentrations were estimated using a nationwide spatiotemporal model for women in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study, a prospective cohort located in 6 states (California, Florida, Louisiana, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) and 2 metropolitan areas (Atlanta, GA, and Detroit, MI) and enrolled in 1995-1996 (n = 196 905). Annual average PM2.5 concentrations were estimated for a 5-year historical period 10 years prior to enrollment (1980-1984). We used Cox regression to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and breast cancer incidence overall and by estrogen receptor status and catchment area., Results: With follow-up of participants through 2017, a total of 15 870 breast cancer cases were identified. A 10 ug/m3 increase in PM2.5 was statistically significantly associated with overall breast cancer incidence (HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.13). The association was evident for estrogen receptor-positive (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.17) but not estrogen receptor-negative tumors (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.84 to 1.13; Pheterogeneity = .3). Overall breast cancer hazard ratios were more than 1 across the catchment areas, ranging from a hazard ratio of 1.26 (95% CI = 0.96 to 1.64) for North Carolina to a hazard ratio of 1.04 (95% CI = 0.68 to 1.57) for Louisiana (Pheterogeneity = .9)., Conclusions: In this large US cohort with historical air pollutant exposure estimates, PM2.5 was associated with risk of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. State-specific estimates were imprecise but suggest that future work should consider region-specific associations and the potential contribution of PM2.5 chemical constituency in modifying the observed association., (Published by Oxford University Press 2023.)

Background: We sought to develop a proteomics-based risk model for lung cancer and evaluate its risk-discriminatory performance in comparison with a smoking-based risk model (PLCOm2012) and a commercially available autoantibody biomarker test., Methods: We designed a case-control study nested in 6 prospective cohorts, including 624 lung cancer participants who donated blood samples at most 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis and 624 smoking-matched cancer free participants who were assayed for 302 proteins. We used 470 case-control pairs from 4 cohorts to select proteins and train a protein-based risk model. We subsequently used 154 case-control pairs from 2 cohorts to compare the risk-discriminatory performance of the protein-based model with that of the Early Cancer Detection Test (EarlyCDT)-Lung and the PLCOm2012 model using receiver operating characteristics analysis and by estimating models' sensitivity. All tests were 2-sided., Results: The area under the curve for the protein-based risk model in the validation sample was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.81) compared with 0.64 (95% CI = 0.57 to 0.70) for the PLCOm2012 model (Pdifference = .001). The EarlyCDT-Lung had a sensitivity of 14% (95% CI = 8.2% to 19%) and a specificity of 86% (95% CI = 81% to 92%) for incident lung cancer. At the same specificity of 86%, the sensitivity for the protein-based risk model was estimated at 49% (95% CI = 41% to 57%) and 30% (95% CI = 23% to 37%) for the PLCOm2012 model., Conclusion: Circulating proteins showed promise in predicting incident lung cancer and outperformed a standard risk prediction model and the commercialized EarlyCDT-Lung., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Starting in 2018, national death certificates included a new racial classification system that accounts for multiple-race decedents and separates Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) individuals from Asian individuals. We estimated cancer death rates across updated racial and ethnic categories, sex, and age., Methods: Age-standardized US cancer mortality rates and rate ratios from 2018 to 2020 among individuals aged 20 years and older were estimated with national death certificate data by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and cancer site., Results: In 2018, there were approximately 597 000 cancer deaths, 598 000 in 2019, and 601 000 in 2020. Among men, cancer death rates were highest in Black men (298.2 per 100 000; n = 105 632), followed by White (250.8; n = 736 319), American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN; 249.2; n = 3376), NHPI (205.6; n = 1080), Latino (177.2; n = 66 167), and Asian (147.9; n = 26 591) men. Among women, Black women had the highest cancer death rates (206.5 per 100 000; n = 104 437), followed by NHPI (192.1; n = 1141), AI/AN (189.9; n = 3239), White (183.0; n = 646 865), Latina (128.4; n = 61 579), and Asian (111.4; n = 26 396) women. The highest death rates by age group occurred among NHPI individuals aged 20-49 years and Black individuals aged 50-69 and 70 years and older. Asian individuals had the lowest cancer death rates across age groups. Compared with Asian individuals, total cancer death rates were 39% higher in NHPI men and 73% higher in NHPI women., Conclusions: There were striking racial and ethnic disparities in cancer death rates during 2018-2020. Separating NHPI and Asian individuals revealed large differences in cancer mortality between 2 groups that were previously combined in vital statistics data., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Previous studies suggested associations between the oral microbiome and lung cancer, but studies were predominantly cross-sectional and underpowered., Methods: Using a case-cohort design, 1306 incident lung cancer cases were identified in the Agricultural Health Study; National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study; and Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Referent subcohorts were randomly selected by strata of age, sex, and smoking history. DNA was extracted from oral wash specimens using the DSP DNA Virus Pathogen kit, the 16S rRNA gene V4 region was amplified and sequenced, and bioinformatics were conducted using QIIME 2. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using weighted Cox proportional hazards models., Results: Higher alpha diversity was associated with lower lung cancer risk (Shannon index hazard ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval = 0.84 to 0.96). Specific principal component vectors of the microbial communities were also statistically significantly associated with lung cancer risk. After multiple testing adjustment, greater relative abundance of 3 genera and presence of 1 genus were associated with greater lung cancer risk, whereas presence of 3 genera were associated with lower risk. For example, every SD increase in Streptococcus abundance was associated with 1.14 times the risk of lung cancer (95% confidence interval = 1.06 to 1.22). Associations were strongest among squamous cell carcinoma cases and former smokers., Conclusions: Multiple oral microbial measures were prospectively associated with lung cancer risk in 3 US cohort studies, with associations varying by smoking history and histologic subtype. The oral microbiome may offer new opportunities for lung cancer prevention., (Published by Oxford University Press 2022.)

Background: With advancing therapeutics, lung cancer (LC) survivors are rapidly increasing in number. Although mounting evidence suggests LC survivors have high risk of second primary lung cancer (SPLC), there is no validated prediction model available for clinical use to identify high-risk LC survivors for SPLC., Methods: Using data from 6325 ever-smokers in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) study diagnosed with initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) in 1993-2017, we developed a prediction model for 10-year SPLC risk after IPLC diagnosis using cause-specific Cox regression. We evaluated the model's clinical utility using decision curve analysis and externally validated it using 2 population-based data-Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST)-that included 2963 and 2844 IPLC (101 and 93 SPLC cases), respectively., Results: Over 14 063 person-years, 145 (2.3%) ever-smoking IPLC patients developed SPLC in MEC. Our prediction model demonstrated a high predictive accuracy (Brier score = 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.4 to 3.3) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics [AUC] = 81.9%, 95% CI = 78.2% to 85.5%) based on bootstrap validation in MEC. Stratification by the estimated risk quartiles showed that the observed SPLC incidence was statistically significantly higher in the 4th vs 1st quartile (9.5% vs 0.2%; P < .001). Decision curve analysis indicated that in a wide range of 10-year risk thresholds from 1% to 20%, the model yielded a larger net-benefit vs hypothetical all-screening or no-screening scenarios. External validation using PLCO and NLST showed an AUC of 78.8% (95% CI = 74.6% to 82.9%) and 72.7% (95% CI = 67.7% to 77.7%), respectively., Conclusions: We developed and validated a SPLC prediction model based on large population-based cohorts. The proposed prediction model can help identify high-risk LC patients for SPLC and can be incorporated into clinical decision making for SPLC surveillance and screening., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Alcohol is an established risk factor for several cancers, but modest alcohol-cancer associations may be missed because of measurement error in self-reported assessments. Biomarkers of habitual alcohol intake may provide novel insight into the relationship between alcohol and cancer risk., Methods: Untargeted metabolomics was used to identify metabolites correlated with self-reported habitual alcohol intake in a discovery dataset from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC; n = 454). Statistically significant correlations were tested in independent datasets of controls from case-control studies nested within EPIC (n = 280) and the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC; n = 438) study. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of alcohol-associated metabolites and self-reported alcohol intake with risk of pancreatic cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver cancer, and liver disease mortality in the contributing studies., Results: Two metabolites displayed a dose-response association with self-reported alcohol intake: 2-hydroxy-3-methylbutyric acid and an unidentified compound. A 1-SD (log2) increase in levels of 2-hydroxy-3-methylbutyric acid was associated with risk of HCC (OR = 2.54, 95% CI = 1.51 to 4.27) and pancreatic cancer (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.99) in EPIC and liver cancer (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.44 to 2.77) and liver disease mortality (OR = 2.16, 95% CI = 1.63 to 2.86) in ATBC. Conversely, a 1-SD (log2) increase in questionnaire-derived alcohol intake was not associated with HCC or pancreatic cancer in EPIC or liver cancer in ATBC but was associated with liver disease mortality (OR = 2.19, 95% CI = 1.60 to 2.98) in ATBC., Conclusions: 2-hydroxy-3-methylbutyric acid is a candidate biomarker of habitual alcohol intake that may advance the study of alcohol and cancer risk in population-based studies., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are highly persistent chemicals that have been detected in the serum of over 98% of the US population. Studies among highly exposed individuals suggest an association with perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) exposure and kidney cancer. It remains unclear whether PFOA or other PFAS are renal carcinogens or if they influence risk of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) at concentrations observed in the general population., Methods: We measured prediagnostic serum concentrations of PFOA and 7 additional PFAS in 324 RCC cases and 324 individually matched controls within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) relating serum PFAS concentrations and RCC risk. Individual PFAS were modeled continuously (log2-transformed) and categorically, with adjustment for kidney function and additional potential confounders. All statistical tests were 2-sided., Results: We observed a positive association with RCC risk for PFOA (doubling in serum concentration, ORcontinuous = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.37, P = .002) and a greater than twofold increased risk among those in the highest quartile vs the lowest (OR = 2.63, 95% CI = 1.33 to 5.20, Ptrend = .007). The association with PFOA was similar after adjustment for other PFAS (ORcontinuous = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.07 to 2.63, P = .02) and remained apparent in analyses restricted to individuals without evidence of diminished kidney function and in cases diagnosed 8 or more years after phlebotomy., Conclusions: Our findings add substantially to the weight of evidence that PFOA is a renal carcinogen and may have important public health implications for the many individuals exposed to this ubiquitous and highly persistent chemical., (Published by Oxford University Press 2020.)

Background: Coffee has been consistently associated with lower risk of liver cancer and chronic liver disease, suggesting that coffee affects mechanisms underlying disease development., Methods: We measured serum metabolites using untargeted metabolomics in 1:1 matched nested case-control studies of liver cancer (n = 221 cases) and fatal liver disease (n = 242 cases) in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention cohort (n = 29 133). Associations between baseline coffee drinking and metabolites were identified using linear regression; conditional logistic regression models were used to identify associations with subsequent outcomes., Results: Overall, 21 metabolites were associated with coffee drinking and also each subsequent endpoint; nine metabolites and trigonelline, a known coffee biomarker, were identified. Tyrosine and two bile acids, glycochenodeoxycholic acid (GCDCA) and glycocholic acid (GCA), were inversely associated with coffee but positively associated with both outcomes; odds ratios (ORs) comparing the 90th to 10th percentile (modeled on a continuous basis) ranged from 3.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.00 to 7.74) for tyrosine to 4.95 (95% CI = 2.64 to 9.29) for GCA and from 4.00 (95% CI = 2.42 to 6.62) for GCA to 6.77 (95% CI = 3.62 to 12.65) for GCDCA for liver cancer and fatal liver disease, respectively. The remaining six metabolites and trigonelline were positively associated with coffee drinking but inversely associated with both outcomes; odds ratio ranged from 0.16 to 0.37. Associations persisted following diet adjustment and for outcomes occurring greater than 10 years after blood collection., Conclusions: A broad range of compounds were associated with coffee drinking, incident liver cancer, and liver disease death over 27 years of follow-up. These associations provide novel insight into chronic liver disease and liver cancer etiology and support a possible hepatoprotective effect of coffee., (Published by Oxford University Press 2019. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Tobacco and alcohol are well-established risk factors for numerous cancers, yet their relationship to biliary tract cancers remains unclear., Methods: We pooled data from 26 prospective studies to evaluate associations of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption with biliary tract cancer risk. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with smoking and alcohol consumption were calculated. Random-effects meta-analysis produced summary estimates. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: Over a period of 38 369 156 person-years of follow-up, 1391 gallbladder, 758 intrahepatic bile duct, 1208 extrahepatic bile duct, and 623 ampulla of Vater cancer cases were identified. Ever, former, and current smoking were associated with increased extrahepatic bile duct and ampulla of Vater cancers risk (eg, current vs never smokers HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.34 to 2.13 and 2.22, 95% CI = 1.69 to 2.92, respectively), with dose-response effects for smoking pack-years, duration, and intensity (all Ptrend < .01). Current smoking and smoking intensity were also associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer (eg, >40 cigarettes per day vs never smokers HR = 2.15, 95 % CI = 1.15 to 4.00; Ptrend = .001). No convincing association was observed between smoking and gallbladder cancer. Alcohol consumption was only associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer, with increased risk for individuals consuming five or more vs zero drinks per day (HR = 2.35, 95%CI = 1.46 to 3.78; Ptrend = .04). There was evidence of statistical heterogeneity among several cancer sites, particularly between gallbladder cancer and the other biliary tract cancers., Conclusions: Smoking appears to increase the risk of developing all biliary tract cancers except gallbladder cancer. Alcohol may increase the risk of intrahepatic bile duct cancer. Findings highlight etiologic heterogeneity across the biliary tract., (Published by Oxford University Press 2019. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the United States.)

Disparities in cancer mortality by county-level income have increased. It is unclear whether these widening disparities have affected older and younger adults equally. National death certificate data were utilized to ascertain cancer deaths during 1999-2015. Average annual percent changes in mortality rates and mortality rate ratios (RRs) were estimated by county-level income quintile and age (25-64 vs ≥65 years). Among 25- to 64-year-olds, cancer mortality rates were 30% higher (RR = 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29 to 1.31) in the lowest-vs the highest-income counties in 1999-2001 and 56% higher (RR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.55 to 1.57) in 2013-2015; the disparities among those 65 years and older were smaller but also widened over time (RR1999-2001 = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.05; RR2013-2015 = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.14). Widening disparities occurred across cancer sites. If all counties had the mortality rates of the highest-income counties, 21.5% of cancer deaths among 25- to 64-year-olds and 7.3% of cancer deaths in those 65 years and older would have been avoided in 2015. These results highlight an ongoing need for equity-focused interventions, particularly among younger adults., (Published by Oxford University Press 2019.)

Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies suggest a protective role for vitamin D in colorectal carcinogenesis, but evidence is inconclusive. Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations that minimize risk are unknown. Current Institute of Medicine (IOM) vitamin D guidance is based solely on bone health., Methods: We pooled participant-level data from 17 cohorts, comprising 5706 colorectal cancer case participants and 7107 control participants with a wide range of circulating 25(OH)D concentrations. For 30.1% of participants, 25(OH)D was newly measured. Previously measured 25(OH)D was calibrated to the same assay to permit estimating risk by absolute concentrations. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) for prediagnostic season-standardized 25(OH)D concentrations were calculated using conditional logistic regression and pooled using random effects models., Results: Compared with the lower range of sufficiency for bone health (50-<62.5 nmol/L), deficient 25(OH)D (<30 nmol/L) was associated with 31% higher colorectal cancer risk (RR = 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.62); 25(OH)D above sufficiency (75-<87.5 and 87.5-<100 nmol/L) was associated with 19% (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.99) and 27% (RR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.91) lower risk, respectively. At 25(OH)D of 100 nmol/L or greater, risk did not continue to decline and was not statistically significantly reduced (RR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.67 to 1.24, 3.5% of control participants). Associations were minimally affected when adjusting for body mass index, physical activity, or other risk factors. For each 25 nmol/L increment in circulating 25(OH)D, colorectal cancer risk was 19% lower in women (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.87) and 7% lower in men (RR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.86 to 1.00) (two-sided Pheterogeneity by sex = .008). Associations were inverse in all subgroups, including colorectal subsite, geographic region, and season of blood collection., Conclusions: Higher circulating 25(OH)D was related to a statistically significant, substantially lower colorectal cancer risk in women and non-statistically significant lower risk in men. Optimal 25(OH)D concentrations for colorectal cancer risk reduction, 75-100 nmol/L, appear higher than current IOM recommendations., (Published by Oxford University Press 2018.)

Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) are characterized by a strong male predominance. Concentrations of sex steroid hormones have been hypothesized to explain this sex disparity. However, no prospective population-based study has examined sex steroid hormones in relation to EA/GCA risk. Thus, we investigated whether prediagnostic circulating sex steroid hormone concentrations were associated with EA/GCA in a nested case-control study drawn from participants in three prospective cohort studies., Methods: Using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and electrochemiluminescence immunoassay, we quantitated sex steroid hormones and sex hormone binding globulin, respectively, in serum from 259 EA/GCA male case participants and 259 matched male control participants from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial, Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study, and Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between circulating hormones and EA/GCA risk. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: Higher concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) were associated with a 38% decreased risk of EA/GCA (OR per unit increase in log2 DHEA = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.47 to 0.82, Ptrend = .001). Higher estradiol concentrations were associated with a 34% reduced risk of EA/GCA (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.98, Ptrend = .05), and the association with free estradiol was similar. No other associations between baseline hormone concentrations and future EA/GCA risk were observed., Conclusions: This study provides the first evidence that higher concentrations of circulating DHEA, estradiol, and free estradiol may be associated with lower risks of EA/GCA in men.

Background: Circulating concentrations of B vitamins and factors related to one-carbon metabolism have been found to be strongly inversely associated with lung cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The extent to which these associations are present in other study populations is unknown., Methods: Within 20 prospective cohorts from the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium, a nested case-control study was designed including 5364 incident lung cancer case patients and 5364 control subjects who were individually matched to case patients by age, sex, cohort, and smoking status. Centralized biochemical analyses were performed to measure circulating concentrations of vitamin B6, folate, and methionine, as well as cotinine as an indicator of recent tobacco exposure. The association between these biomarkers and lung cancer risk was evaluated using conditional logistic regression models., Results: Participants with higher circulating concentrations of vitamin B6 and folate had a modestly decreased risk of lung cancer risk overall, the odds ratios when comparing the top and bottom fourths (OR 4vs1 ) being 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.78 to 1.00) and 0.86 (95% CI = 0.74 to 0.99), respectively. We found stronger associations among men (vitamin B6: OR 4vs1 = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.89; folate: OR 4vs1 = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.61 to 0.93) and ever smokers (vitamin B6: OR 4vs1 = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.91; folate: OR 4vs1 = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.73 to 1.03). We further noted that the association of folate was restricted to Europe/Australia and Asia, whereas no clear association was observed for the United States. Circulating concentrations of methionine were not associated with lung cancer risk overall or in important subgroups., Conclusions: Although confounding by tobacco exposure or reverse causation cannot be ruled out, these study results are compatible with a small decrease in lung cancer risk in ever smokers who avoid low concentrations of circulating folate and vitamin B6., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: In a European cohort, it was previously reported that 35% of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) patients were human papillomavirus type-16 (HPV16) seropositive up to 10 years before diagnosis vs 0.6% of cancer-free controls. Here, we describe the kinetics of HPV16-E6 antibodies prior to OPC diagnosis., Methods: We used annual serial prediagnostic blood samples from the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial. Antibodies to HPV were initially assessed in prediagnostic blood drawn at study enrollment from 198 incident head and neck cancer patients (median years to cancer diagnosis = 6.6) and 924 matched control subjects using multiplex serology, and subsequently in serial samples (median = 5/individual). Available tumor samples were identified and tested for HPV16 RNA to define HPV-driven OPC., Results: HPV16-E6 antibodies were present at baseline in 42.3% of 52 OPC patients and 0.5% of 924 control subjects. HPV16-E6 antibody levels were highly elevated and stable across serial blood samples for 21 OPC patients who were seropositive at baseline, as well as for one OPC patient who seroconverted closer to diagnosis. All five subjects with HPV16-driven OPC tumors were HPV16-E6-seropositive, and the four subjects with HPV16-negative OPC tumors were seronegative. The estimated 10-year cumulative risk of OPC was 6.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8% to 21.5%) for HPV16-E6-seropositive men, 1.3% (95% CI = 0.1% to 15.3%) for HPV16-E6-seropositive women, and 0.04% (95% CI = 0.03% to 0.06%) among HPV16-E6-seronegative individuals., Conclusions: Forty-two percent of subjects diagnosed with OPC between 1994 and 2009 in a US cohort were HPV16-E6 seropositive, with stable antibody levels during annual follow-up for up to 13 years prior to diagnosis. Tumor analysis indicated that the sensitivity and specificity of HPV16-E6 antibodies were exceptionally high in predicting HPV-driven OPC., (Published by Oxford University Press 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.)