Search

Background: Climate influences the interaction between pathogens and their hosts significantly. This is particularly evident in the coffee industry, where fungal diseases like Cercospora coffeicola, causing brown‐eye spot, can reduce yields drastically. This study focuses on forecasting coffee brown‐eye spot using various models that incorporate agrometeorological data, allowing for predictions at least 1 week prior to the occurrence of disease. Data were gathered from eight locations across São Paulo and Minas Gerais, encompassing the South and Cerrado regions of Minas Gerais state. In the initial phase, various machine learning (ML) models and topologies were calibrated to forecast brown‐eye spot, identifying one with potential for advanced decision‐making. The top‐performing models were then employed in the next stage to forecast and spatially project the severity of brown‐eye spot across 2681 key Brazilian coffee‐producing municipalities. Meteorological data were sourced from NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources platform, and the Penman–Monteith method was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, leading to a Thornthwaite and Mather water‐balance calculation. Six ML models – K‐nearest neighbors (KNN), artificial neural network multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector machine (SVM), random forests (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and gradient boosting regression (GradBOOSTING) – were employed, considering disease latency to time define input variables. Results: These models utilized climatic elements such as average air temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, evapotranspiration, water deficit, and surplus. The XGBoost model proved most effective in high‐yielding conditions, demonstrating high precision and accuracy. Conversely, the SVM model excelled in low‐yielding scenarios. The incidence of brown‐eye spot varied noticeably between high‐ and low‐yield conditions, with significant regional differences observed. The accuracy of predicting brown‐eye spot severity in coffee plantations depended on the biennial production cycle. High‐yielding trees showed superior results with the XGBoost model (R2 = 0.77, root mean squared error, RMSE = 10.53), whereas the SVM model performed better under low‐yielding conditions (precision 0.76, RMSE = 12.82). Conclusion: The study's application of agrometeorological variables and ML models successfully predicted the incidence of brown‐eye spot in coffee plantations with a 7 day lead time, illustrating that they were valuable tools for managing this significant agricultural challenge. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Climate conditions affect animal welfare directly, influencing milk production. The Midwest region is the largest cattle‐producing region in Brazil. The objective of this study was to elaborate on bioclimatic zoning for dairy cattle in the Midwest region of Brazil. Air temperature (Ta, °C) and relative humidity (%, RH) data from a 30‐year historical series (1989–2019) collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER) platform were used. The Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) was determined for the hottest and coldest months. Milk production losses due to climate factors in the Midwest of Brazil for two daily production levels, 10 kg Milk (PL10) and 25 kg Milk (PL25), were estimated. RESULTS: The Midwest presented three THI classifications throughout the year: 'normal', 'alert', and 'critical alert'. The entire Midwest region was classified as 'normal' (THI < 70) between autumn and winter. The decrease in milk production (DMP) during the autumn and winter presented no loss for both production levels (PL10 and PL25). CONCLUSION: On the other hand, a 1 to 2 kg reduction in milk production was observed for cows with a PL25 production level between spring and summer in the southern Midwest region, while cows with a PL10 production level showed no reduction in milk production. Only the cities of Sinop and Cuiabá did not present a 'critical alert' during spring/summer for the risk of heat stress. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The loss of coffee leaves caused by the attack of pests and diseases significantly reduces its production and bean quality. Thus this study aimed to estimate foliation for regions with the highest production of arabica coffee in Brazil using nonlinear models as a function of climate. A 25‐year historical series (1995–2019) of Coffea arabica foliation (%) data was obtained by the Procafé Foundation in cultivations with no phytosanitary treatment. The climate data were obtained on a daily scale by NASA/POWER platform with a temporal resolution of 33 years (1987–2019) and a spatial resolution of approximately 106 km, thus allowing the calculation of the reference evapotranspiration (PET). Foliation estimation models were adjusted through regression analysis using four‐parameter sigmoidal logistic models. The analysis of the foliation trend of coffee plantations was carried out from degrees‐day for 70 locations. RESULTS: The general model calibrated to estimate the arabica coffee foliation was accurate (mean absolute percentage error = 2.19%) and precise (R2adj = 0.99) and can be used to assist decision‐making by coffee growers. The model had a sigmoidal trend of reduction, with parameters ymax = 97.63%, ymin = 9%, Xo = 3517.41 DD, and p = 6.27%, showing that foliation could reach 0.009% if the necessary phytosanitary controls are not carried out. CONCLUSION: Locations with high air temperatures over the year had low arabica coffee foliation, as shown by the correlation of −0.94. Therefore, coffee foliation can be estimated using degree days with accuracy and precision through the air temperature. This represents great convenience because crop foliation can be obtained using only a thermometer. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Peanuts are widely grown in Brazil because of their great importance in the domestic vegetable oil industry and the succession of sugarcane, soybean and maize crops, contributing to soil conservation and improvement in agricultural areas. Thus, the present study aimed to determine the zoning of peanuts' climatic risk by estimating the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) for the crop in Brazil. We used a historical series of data on average air temperature and rainfall between 1980 and 2016. Reference evapotranspiration was estimated using the method of Thornthwaite, and we subsequently calculated crop evapotranspiration and maximum evapotranspiration. Water balances for all stations were calculated using the method of Thornthwaite and Mather, with an available water capacity in the soil of 15, 30 and 45 mm. The definitions of suitable, unfit and restricted areas and the planting season were performed using the WRSI. RESULTS: Brazil has low climatic risk areas for growing peanuts throughout the year, except for winter. The country reveals that 88.19%, 97.93%, 99.16% and 39.25% of its area is suitable for planting peanuts on planting dates in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: Brazil has a large part of the areas favorable to the planting of peanuts. The maximum availability of soil water at a depth of 15, 30 and 45 mm does not influence regions with respect to peanut growing in Brazil. The states of Piauí, Ceará and Bahia are the most unsuitable on the winter planting date, with an average WRSI of 0.22. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND RESULTS CONCLUSIONS Coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is one of the most important commodities today, with a high economic value worldwide. Coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix Berk. et Br.) has been showing a high impact on Brazilian coffee trees among the various diseases that attack coffee. The climate has a great influence on the development of diseases, especially when fungi are the causal agents. This study aimed to carry out the zoning of climate favorability for coffee leaf rust in the traditional and main coffee‐producing regions of Brazil. The study was conducted in 13 locations in the states of Paraná, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Goiás and Bahia. Air temperature and daily precipitation data for the current scenario were collected using the WorldClim version 2.1 platform for the last climatological normal and future climate change data. The ideal climate conditions for coffee leaf rust consist of a mean air temperature ranging from 21 to 25 °C and precipitation >30 mm per month. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects scenarios associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports consisted of the Shared Socio‐Economic Pathways SSP‐1 2.6, SSP‐2 4.5, SSP‐3 7.0 and SSP‐5 8.5, the latter being considered one of the most catastrophic. All steps to carry out the suitability zoning were performed in a tool using the QGIS geographic information system software.Zoning for coffee leaf rust had three classes: favorable, relatively favorable and unfavorable. Currently, the largest coffee‐producing region in Brazil has 49.1% of its analyzed area classified as favorable, 39.2% as relatively favorable and 11.7% as unfavorable. In the current scenario, Patrocínio and Três Pontas are locations with high coffee production in which the favorable class is predominant. The state of Minas Gerais has an annual mean of 55.3% of its entire territory apt for the disease, with the highest occurrence between September and March.Climate change has a negative impact on the development of coffee leaf rust, mainly in the long term, as in the period of 2081–2100, in which the SSP‐5 8.5 scenario led to a decrease in the favorable and unfavorable areas and an increase in the relatively favorable areas of 9.8%, 18.6% and 71.5% for the Brazilian territory, respectively. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]