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Abstract Background Myelodysplastic neoplasms (MDS) are myeloid neoplasms characterized by disordered differentiation of hematopoietic stem cells and a predisposition to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The underline pathogenesis remains unclear. Methods In this study, the trajectory of differentiation and mechanisms of leukemic transformation were explored through bioinformatics analysis of single-cell RNA-Seq data from hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) in MDS patients. Results Among the HSPC clusters, the proportion of common myeloid progenitor (CMP) was the main cell cluster in the patients with excess blasts (EB)/ secondary AML. Cell cycle analysis indicated the CMP of MDS patients were in an active proliferative state. The genes involved in the cell proliferation, such as MAML3 and PLCB1, were up-regulated in MDS CMP. Further validation analysis indicated that the expression levels of MAML3 and PLCB1 in patients with MDS-EB were significantly higher than those without EB. Patients with high expression of PLCB1 had a higher risk of transformation to AML. PLCB1 inhibitor can suppress proliferation, induce cell cycle arrest, and activate apoptosis of leukemic cells in vitro. Conclusion This study revealed the transcriptomic change of HSPCs in MDS patients along the pseudotime and indicated that PLCB1 plays a key role in the transformation of MDS into leukemia.