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Background: We present a novel approach for exiting COVID-19 lockdowns using a 'risk scorecard' to prioritise activities to resume whilst allowing safe re-opening.Methods: We modelled cases generated in the community/week, incorporating parameters for social distancing, contact tracing and imported cases. We set thresholds for cases and analysed the effect of varying parameters. An online tool to facilitate country-specific use including the modification of parameters (https://sshsphdemos.shinyapps.io/covid_riskbudget/) enables visualisation of effects of parameter changes and trade-offs. Local outbreak investigation data from Singapore illustrates this.Results: Setting a threshold of 0.9 mean number of secondary cases arising from a case to keep R < 1, we showed that opening all activities excluding high-risk ones (e.g. nightclubs) allows cases to remain within threshold; while opening high-risk activities would exceed the threshold and result in escalating cases. An 80% reduction in imported cases per week (141 to 29) reduced steady-state cases by 30% (295 to 205). One-off surges in cases (due to superspreading) had no effect on the steady state if the R remains < 1. Increasing the effectiveness of contact tracing (probability of a community case being isolated when infectious) by 33% (0.6 to 0.8) reduced cases by 22% (295 to 231). Cases grew exponentially if the product of the mean number of secondary cases arising from a case and (1-probability of case being isolated) was > 1.Conclusions: Countries can utilise a 'risk scorecard' to balance relaxations for travel and domestic activity depending on factors that reduce disease impact, including hospital/ICU capacity, contact tracing, quarantine and vaccination. The tool enabled visualization of the combinations of imported cases and activity levels on the case numbers and the trade-offs required. For vaccination, a reduction factor should be applied both for likelihood of an infected case being present and a close contact getting infected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Substantial limitations have been imposed on passenger air travel to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 between regions and countries. However, as case numbers decrease, air travel will gradually resume. We considered a future scenario in which case numbers are low and air travel returns to normal. Under that scenario, there will be a risk of outbreaks in locations worldwide due to imported cases. We estimated the risk of different locations acting as sources of future coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks elsewhere.Methods: We use modelled global air travel data and population density estimates from locations worldwide to analyse the risk that 1364 airports are sources of future coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks. We use a probabilistic, branching-process-based approach that considers the volume of air travelers between airports and the reproduction number at each location, accounting for local population density.Results: Under the scenario we model, we identify airports in East Asia as having the highest risk of acting as sources of future outbreaks. Moreover, we investigate the locations most likely to cause outbreaks due to air travel in regions that are large and potentially vulnerable to outbreaks: India, Brazil and Africa. We find that outbreaks in India and Brazil are most likely to be seeded by individuals travelling from within those regions. We find that this is also true for less vulnerable regions, such as the United States, Europe and China. However, outbreaks in Africa due to imported cases are instead most likely to be initiated by passengers travelling from outside the continent.Conclusions: Variation in flight volumes and destination population densities creates a non-uniform distribution of the risk that different airports pose of acting as the source of an outbreak. Accurate quantification of the spatial distribution of outbreak risk can therefore facilitate optimal allocation of resources for effective targeting of public health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Due to the huge 2-way human traffic between Japan and Chikungunya (CHIK) fever-endemic regions, 89 imported cases of CHIK fever were confirmed in Japan from January 2006 to June 2016. Fifty-four of 89 cases were confirmed virologically and serologically at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan and we present the demographic profiles of the patients and the phylogenetic features of 14 CHIK virus (CHIKV) isolates.Methods: Patients were diagnosed with CHIK fever by a combination of virus isolation, viral RNA amplification, IgM antibody-, IgG antibody-, and/or neutralizing antibody detection. The whole-genome sequences of the CHIKV isolates were determined by next-generation sequencing.Results: Prior to 2014, the source countries of the imported CHIK fever cases were limited to South and Southeast Asian countries. After 2014, when outbreaks occurred in the Pacific and Caribbean Islands and Latin American countries, there was an increase in the number of imported cases from these regions. A phylogenetic analysis of 14 isolates revealed that four isolates recovered from three patients who returned from Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Angola, belonged to the East/Central/South African genotype, while 10 isolates from 10 patients who returned from Indonesia, the Philippines, Tonga, the Commonwealth of Dominica, Colombia and Cuba, belonged to the Asian genotype.Conclusion: Through the phylogenetic analysis of the isolates, we could predict the situations of the CHIK fever epidemics in Indonesia, Angola and Cuba. Although Japan has not yet experienced an autochthonous outbreak of CHIK fever, the possibility of the future introduction of CHIKV through an imported case and subsequent local transmission should be considered, especially during the mosquito-active season. The monitoring and reporting of imported cases will be useful to understand the situation of the global epidemic, to increase awareness of and facilitate the diagnosis of CHIK fever, and to identify a future CHIK fever outbreak in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]