1. Imported dengue in Spain: a nationwide analysis with predictive time series analyses
- Author
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María José Sierra-Moros, Zaida Herrador, Agustín Benito, Lidia Redondo-Bravo, Claudia Ruiz-Huerta, and Diana Gómez-Barroso
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Adolescent ,Databases, Factual ,Population ,Mosquito Vectors ,law.invention ,Dengue fever ,Dengue ,Young Adult ,law ,Communicable Diseases, Imported ,Epidemiology ,medicine ,Animals ,Humans ,education ,Child ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,education.field_of_study ,Travel ,business.industry ,imported diseases ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Incidence ,Infant, Newborn ,Infant ,Retrospective cohort study ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Confidence interval ,Hospitalization ,Transmission (mechanics) ,Spain ,Child, Preschool ,Multivariate Analysis ,Linear Models ,Original Article ,epidemiology ,Female ,business ,Malaria ,Demography - Abstract
BackgroundOf febrile illnesses in Europe, dengue is second only to malaria as a cause of travellers being hospitalized. Local transmission has been reported in several European countries, including Spain. This study assesses the evolution of dengue-related admissions in Spain in terms of time, geographical distribution and individuals’ common characteristics; it also creates a predictive model to evaluate the risk of local transmission.MethodsThis is a retrospective study using the Hospital Discharge Records Database from 1997 to 2016. We calculated hospitalization rates and described clinical characteristics. Spatial distribution and temporal behaviour were also assessed, and a predictive time series model was created to estimate expected cases in the near future. Figures for resident foreign population, Spanish residents’ trips to endemic regions and the expansion of Aedes albopictus were also evaluated.ResultsA total of 588 dengue-related admissions were recorded: 49.6% were women, and the mean age was 34.3 years. One person died (0.2%), 82% presented with mild-to-moderate dengue and 7–8% with severe dengue. We observed a trend of steady and consistent increase in incidence (P ConclusionWe present a nationwide study based on hospital, immigration, travel and entomological data. The constant increase in dengue-related hospitalizations, in combination with wider vector distribution, could imply a higher risk of autochthonous dengue transmission in the years to come. Strengthening the human and vector surveillance systems is a necessity, as are improvements in control measures, in the education of the general public and in fostering their collaboration in order to reduce the impact of imported dengue and to prevent the occurrence of autochthonous cases. more...
- Published
- 2019