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Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by cyst and kidney growth, which is hypothesized to cause loss of functioning renal mass and eventually end-stage kidney disease. However, the time course of decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is poorly defined. The Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease study is a 14-year observational cohort study of 241 adults with ADPKD. As an estimate of the rate of kidney growth, participants were stratified into 5 subclasses based on baseline age and magnetic resonance imaging measurements of total kidney volume (TKV) according to the method of Irazabal. GFR trajectories spanning over four decades of life were reconstructed and fitted using mixed polynomial models, which were validated using data from the HALT-PKD study. GFR trajectories were nonlinear, with a period of relative stability in most participants, followed by accelerating decline. The shape and slope of these trajectories were strongly associated with baseline Irazabal class. Patients with PKD1 mutations had a steeper GFR decline than patients with PKD2 mutations or with no detected mutation, largely mediated by the effect of genotype on Irazabal class. Thus, GFR decline in ADPKD is nonlinear, and its trajectory throughout adulthood can be predicted from a single measurement of kidney volume. These models can be used for clinical prognostication, clinical trial design, and patient selection for clinical interventions. Our findings support a causal link between growth in kidney volume and GFR decline, adding support for the use of TKV as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials.

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is characterized by progressive enlargement of kidney cysts leading to chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Identification of an early biomarker that can predict progression of CKD is urgently needed. In an earlier Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP) study (a prospective, multicenter, observational analysis of 241 patients with ADPKD initiated in 2000), baseline height-adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV) was shown to be associated with development of CKD stage 3 after eight years of follow-up. Here we conducted an extended study and found that in a multivariable logistic regression model, baseline htTKV was shown to be a strong, independent predictor for the development of CKD after a median follow-up of 13 years. The odds ratio of reaching each CKD stage per 100 mL/m increment in htTKV was 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.19-1.60) for stage 3, 1.42 (1.23-1.64) for stage 4, and 1.35 (1.18-1.55) for stage 5 or ESRD. Baseline htTKV was also associated with relative decreases in the glomerular filtration rate of 30%, and 57% or more. Moreover, the rate of change in htTKV was negatively correlated with the slope of the glomerular filtration rate. While ADPKD genotype was also associated with CKD outcomes, it was not an independent prognostic factor after adjusting for htTKV. Thus, baseline total kidney volume and the rate of kidney growth are strongly associated with the development of advanced stages of CKD. These findings support the use of total kidney volume as a prognostic and potentially monitoring biomarker in ADPKD.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations provide high-resolution information about the anatomic structure of the kidneys and are used to measure total kidney volume (TKV) in patients with Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD). Height-adjusted TKV (HtTKV) has become the gold-standard imaging biomarker for ADPKD progression at early stages of the disease when estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is still normal. However, HtTKV does not take advantage of the wealth of information provided by MRI. Here we tested whether image texture features provide additional insights into the ADPKD kidney that may be used as complementary information to existing biomarkers. A retrospective cohort of 122 patients from the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP) study was identified who had T2-weighted MRIs and eGFR values over 70 mL/min/1.73m 2 at the time of their baseline scan. We computed nine distinct image texture features for each patient. The ability of each feature to predict subsequent progression to CKD stage 3A, 3B, and 30% reduction in eGFR at eight-year follow-up was assessed. A multiple linear regression model was developed incorporating age, baseline eGFR, HtTKV, and three image texture features identified by stability feature selection (Entropy, Correlation, and Energy). Including texture in a multiple linear regression model (predicting percent change in eGFR) improved Pearson correlation coefficient from -0.51 (using age, eGFR, and HtTKV) to -0.70 (adding texture). Thus, texture analysis offers an approach to refine ADPKD prognosis and should be further explored for its utility in individualized clinical decision making and outcome prediction.

Defects in the primary cilium/basal body complex of renal tubular cells cause polycystic kidney disease (PKD). To uncover pathways associated with disease progression, we determined the kidney transcriptome of 10-day-old severely and mildly affected cpk mice, a model of recessive PKD. In the severe phenotype, the most highly expressed genes were those associated with the innate immune response including many macrophage markers, particularly those associated with a profibrotic alternative activation pathway. Additionally, gene expression of macrophage activators was dominated by the complement system factors including the central complement component 3. Additional studies confirmed increased complement component 3 protein levels in both cystic and non-cystic epithelia in the kidneys of cpk compared to wild-type mice. We also found elevated complement component 3 activation in two other mouse-recessive models and human-recessive PKD. Our results suggest that abnormal complement component 3 activation is a key element of progression in PKD.

Monocyte and macrophage markers are among the most highly overexpressed genes in cpk mouse kidneys with severely progressive renal cystic disease. We show here that one of these markers, CD14, is abnormally transcribed, activated and shed in cystic kidneys. However, these abnormalities were not associated with an increased number of interstitial CD14-positive mononuclear cells. Instead, we found that most non-cystic and cystic renal tubular epithelia were CD14-positive; even distal nephron-derived principal cells. Cd14 was significantly overexpressed in the kidneys of 5-day-old cpk mice and further increased as the disease progressed. In the cpk model with variable rates of cystic kidney enlargement (due to an intercross of two distinct genetic backgrounds), Cd14 expression positively correlated with kidney volume, exceeding the correlation with MCP-1, an established marker of autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). In 16 patients with ADPKD, the baseline urinary CD14 level showed some tendency to correlate with the 2-year change in total kidney volume; however, the tendency was not statistically significant. But the association was significant when the analysis was confined to males. Clearly more studies need to be done to evaluate the utility of CD14 as a marker for outcomes in ADPKD.

Percutaneous renal biopsy has an essential role in the diagnosis and treatment of multiple kidney disorders. Unfortunately, this invasive procedure is associated with increased risk for adverse, even lethal, outcomes. Simulation training has been shown to improve procedure competencies; therefore, we developed an inexpensive simulation tool for teaching and practicing real-time ultrasound-guided percutaneous renal biopsy. This model mimics human kidney biopsy conditions in terms of kidney size, depth, tissue echogenicity, and overall structural characteristics. The preparation is simple, consisting of inserting a porcine kidney phantom under a turkey breast, using standard ultrasound imaging and semiautomatic needles, and allowing repetitive sampling. Our tool for initial renal biopsy training and for maintenance of already acquired skills has received positive feedback from fellows in major adult and pediatric nephrology training programs. Future controlled studies are needed to establish the efficacy of this simulation training in reducing discomfort and adverse renal biopsy outcomes in patients.

We appreciate the letter submitted by Dr Burtey and co-workers in response to our recent report 'Overexpression of innate immune response genes in a model of recessive polycystic kidney disease'.1 As noted in their letter,2 these investigators observed that, similar to our observations in the cpk mouse model, genes encoding multiple innate immune factors, including complement system components, were overexpressed in Han:SPRD-Cy rat kidneys. Furthermore, in reviewing the table in their letter, we note additional gene expression similarities between these two models. For example, in cpk kidneys, we also observed increased expression of Adamts1, Ctsd, Ctsk, Hmox1, Lyz (under alias Lzp-s), Mmp14, and Vim. In addition, among the genes overexpressed in Han:SPRD-Cy kidneys, we have also observed increased expression of F3, Lgals3, Mal, and Runx1 in cpk kidneys (data not shown in our original report). These significant parallels in gene expression profiles indicate that similar immune response pathways are activated in kidneys from two phenotypically distinct rodent models, suggesting that this perturbation may be a common signature of polycystic kidney disease.