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Geographic variation in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease and incidence of end-stage renal disease has been previously reported. However, the geographic epidemiology of rapid estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline has not been examined. Methods: We built a longitudinal cohort of 2,107,570 US veterans to characterize the spatial epidemiology of and examine the associations between US county characteristics and rapid eGFR decline. Results: There were 169,029 (8.02%) with rapid eGFR decline (defined as eGFR slope < –5 ml/min per 1.73 m2/year). The prevalence of rapid eGFR decline adjusted for age, race, gender, diabetes, and hypertension varied by county from 4.10%–6.72% in the lowest prevalence quintile to 8.41%–22.04% in the highest prevalence quintile (P for heterogeneity < 0.001). Examination of adjusted prevalence showed substantial geographic variation in those with and without diabetes and those with and without hypertension (P for heterogeneity < 0.001). Cohort participants had higher odds of rapid eGFR decline when living in counties with unfavorable characteristics in domains including health outcomes (odds ratio [OR] = 1.15; confidence interval [CI] = 1.09–1.22), health behaviors (OR = 1.08; CI = 1.03–1.13), clinical care (OR = 1.11; CI = 1.06–1.16), socioeconomic conditions (OR = 1.15; CI = 1.09–1.22), and physical environment (OR = 1.15; CI = 1.01–1.20); living in counties with high percentage of minorities and immigrants was associated with rapid eGFR decline (OR = 1.25; CI = 1.20–1.31). Spatial analyses suggest the presence of cluster of counties with high prevalence of rapid eGFR decline. Discussion: Our findings show substantial geographic variation in rapid eGFR decline among US veterans; the variation persists in analyses stratified by diabetes and hypertension status; results show associations between US county characteristics in domains capturing health, socioeconomic, environmental, and diversity conditions, and rapid eGFR decline.

Introduction: Low serum bicarbonate at a single point in time is associated with accelerated kidney decline in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We modeled how changes in serum bicarbonate over time affect incidence of adverse kidney outcomes., Methods: We analyzed data from Optum's deidentified Integrated Claims-Clinical data set of US patients (2007-2019) with ≥1 year of prior medical record data, CKD stages G3 to G5, and metabolic acidosis (i.e., index serum bicarbonate 12 to <22 mmol/l). The primary predictor of interest was the change in serum bicarbonate, evaluated at each postindex outpatient serum bicarbonate test as a time-dependent continuous variable. The primary outcome was a composite of either a ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from index or evidence of dialysis or transplantation, evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models., Results: A total of 24,384 patients were included in the cohort with median follow-up of 3.7 years. A within-patient increase in serum bicarbonate over time was associated with a lower risk of the composite kidney outcome. The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) per 1-mmol/l increase in serum bicarbonate was 0.911 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.905-0.917; P  < 0.001). After adjustment for baseline eGFR and serum bicarbonate, the time-adjusted effect of baseline eGFR and other covariates, the HR per 1-mmol/l increase in serum bicarbonate was largely unchanged (0.916 [95% CI: 0.910-0.922; P  < 0.001])., Conclusion: In a real-world population of US patients with CKD and metabolic acidosis, a within-patient increase in serum bicarbonate over time independent of changes in eGFR, was associated with a lower risk of CKD progression., (© 2023 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Introduction: Secretion of solutes by the proximal tubules represents an intrinsic kidney function not directly reflected by the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). The early loss of secretory clearance may reflect unrecognized kidney dysfunction, portending future disease progression., Methods: We designed a nested case-control study within the Jackson Heart Study (JHS), a prospective study of African American adults in Mississippi, to associate baseline differences in proximal tubular secretion of 5 endogenously produced solutes with future estimated glomerular rate (eGFR) decline. We matched 127 pairs by creatinine-eGFR, age, diabetes, and sex among the patients who provided a 24-hour urine collection; cases had a ≥25% decline in eGFR compared to <10% in controls over 10 years of follow-up. We measured baseline plasma and urine concentrations of secretory solutes using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry to determine the odds ratio of kidney disease progression., Results: Mean age was 60 years; 76% were women; 30% had diabetes; mean baseline eGFR was 94±20 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . The eGFR decline over 10 years was 38±13% in cases and 0±10% in controls. After adjustment for the matching variables plus albuminuria, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, and smoking, each 50% lower kidney clearance of isovalerylglycine, kynurenic acid, and xanthosine were associated with 1.4 to 2.2 greater odds of eGFR decline. Kynurenic acid exhibited the strongest association; each 50% lower clearance of this secretory solute was associated with 2.20-fold higher odds of eGFR decline (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-3.67)., Conclusion: We found that in this community-based study of adults without significant kidney disease, lower proximal tubular secretory solute clearance is associated with future eGFR decline., (© 2022 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Introduction: Geographic variation in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease and incidence of end-stage renal disease has been previously reported. However, the geographic epidemiology of rapid estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline has not been examined., Methods: We built a longitudinal cohort of 2,107,570 US veterans to characterize the spatial epidemiology of and examine the associations between US county characteristics and rapid eGFR decline., Results: There were 169,029 (8.02%) with rapid eGFR decline (defined as eGFR slope < -5 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 /year). The prevalence of rapid eGFR decline adjusted for age, race, gender, diabetes, and hypertension varied by county from 4.10%-6.72% in the lowest prevalence quintile to 8.41%-22.04% in the highest prevalence quintile ( P for heterogeneity < 0.001). Examination of adjusted prevalence showed substantial geographic variation in those with and without diabetes and those with and without hypertension ( P for heterogeneity < 0.001). Cohort participants had higher odds of rapid eGFR decline when living in counties with unfavorable characteristics in domains including health outcomes (odds ratio [OR] = 1.15; confidence interval [CI] = 1.09-1.22), health behaviors (OR = 1.08; CI = 1.03-1.13), clinical care (OR = 1.11; CI = 1.06-1.16), socioeconomic conditions (OR = 1.15; CI = 1.09-1.22), and physical environment (OR = 1.15; CI = 1.01-1.20); living in counties with high percentage of minorities and immigrants was associated with rapid eGFR decline (OR = 1.25; CI = 1.20-1.31). Spatial analyses suggest the presence of cluster of counties with high prevalence of rapid eGFR decline., Discussion: Our findings show substantial geographic variation in rapid eGFR decline among US veterans; the variation persists in analyses stratified by diabetes and hypertension status; results show associations between US county characteristics in domains capturing health, socioeconomic, environmental, and diversity conditions, and rapid eGFR decline.