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In the past few decades, human activities have caused the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide, which has severely impacted the Earth's ecosystem and human health. Therefore, carbon reduction has become the focus of global attention. In this study, the Zhouyuan region of China, which is rich in ancient remains, is taken as an example. Based on the land use characteristics in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, the spatial-temporal evolution of land use and carbon storage in the Zhouyuan region is simulated using four methods, including land use classification, land use transfer maps, patch-level land-use simulation (PLUS), and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models under three scenarios, including the natural development scenario, urban development priority, and heritage conservation priority in 2030. According to the results, the carbon storage in the area in 2030 under all three scenario simulations has decreased compared with 2020, indicating that the region faces great challenges in achieving its targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The paper points out four causes for the decrease in carbon storage, and five suggestions for increasing carbon storage are proposed, such as developing a carbon storage master plan, applying energy-saving technologies, establishing an ecological substitution mechanism, and so on. Through the study of carbon storage in the Zhouyuan region, this paper hopes to establish a mechanism to balance urban development, heritage conservation, and carbon sinks on the one hand, and encourage more scholars to participate in the study of carbon sinks in areas rich in ancient remains, so as to to jointly promote their healthy development on the other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and rapid urbanization have placed enormous pressure on the urban ecological environment worldwide. Urban green spaces, which are an important component of urban ecosystems, can maintain ecological and environmental sustainability and benefits, including biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration. However, land use changes across urban landscapes, especially in plain urban areas with high development pressure, have significantly impacted the carbon sequestration efficiency of urban green spaces. Nevertheless, research examining the impact of land use change and development pressure on urban green spaces and carbon sequestration is relatively scarce. Understanding the carbon sequestration efficiency of urban green spaces and its determining factors will help predict future carbon capture trends within urban ecosystems and formulate more targeted sustainable urban planning and management strategies to improve urban carbon sink efficiency and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Therefore, to understand the factors affecting the carbon sequestration efficiency of urban green spaces, this paper used an integrated framework that combined the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model, landscape pattern index, multiple linear regression, and Markov–FLUS model. The study explored the impact of urban land use and land cover changes on carbon sequestration within the plain urban areas of Beijing at street scale. The results showed that, at street scale, there was a significant positive and negative correlation between the landscape pattern index and net primary productivity (NPP). In addition, the green spaces located in areas with more complex landscape structures had better carbon sequestration benefits. In addition, multiscenario carbon sequestration efficiency prediction suggested that the sustainable development (SD) scenario could achieve a positive increment of overall NPP. In contrast, the business-as-usual development (BD), the fast development (FD), and the low development (LD) scenarios showed a downward trend in NPP. This paper also proposed strategies for optimizing and enhancing green spaces within urban plain areas. Based on the strategies, the results guide decision making for sustainable urban green space planning that maintains the ecological, economic, and social integrity of urban landscapes during urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon ecological compensation is essential to coordinate regional environmental protection, reduce the gap between the economic development of protected areas and beneficiary areas, and achieve carbon neutrality. This paper proposed a theoretical framework for ecological compensation using the theories of carbon balance, externality, ecosystem services, and carbon trading mechanisms. Based on the analysis of the ecological compensation priority sequence in Henan Province, the suppliers and consumers of carbon sequestration were identified, and cross-regional ecological compensation was realized through ecosystem services flow. The results showed that the carbon sequestration supply in Henan Province was characterized as being high in the west and low in the east, while the demand was the opposite. Affected by the suitable environmental conditions, many areas had an ecological surplus pattern, and the carbon sequestration supply was more significant than the demand. Central and south-western Henan Province were distinct ecological compensation payment areas and receiving areas, respectively. Nanyang, which had the largest carbon sequestration flow and the largest ecological contribution to other regions, received the highest ecological compensation fund of CNY 4.069 billion. This study can provide decision support for carbon ecological compensation in the context of carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protecting cultivated land is an urgent mitigation measure for China to reconcile the contradiction between food safety and carbon neutrality. In the context of carbon neutrality, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model among local governments, agricultural technology service organizations (ATSOs), and farmers based on China's cultivated black land, and discusses the factors influencing the strategy choice of each stakeholder group and the final form of evolutionary stabilization strategies adopted by each stakeholder from the perspective of agricultural extension. Through numerical simulations, we reveal that two stable situations exist in the current state of protection of cultivated black land in China: full subject participation and government subject participation only. In order to achieve the optimal realization of the dynamic equilibrium of the three parties, we identify the key issues of cultivated land protection (CLP) and put forward reasonable suggestions, which are summarized as follows: (1) prohibit the excessive subsidies to farmers, and keep the appropriate subsidies at 100~140 CNY/mu to help the protection of cultivated land, if more than 140 CNY/mu is not conducive to the participation of local governments in CLP (mu, a Chinese unit of land measurement that equals to 1/15 a hectare); (2) an increase in the farmers' fines has a dampening effect on farmers digging black soil, and the game model achieves the ideal equilibrium when it reaches 10 billion CNY, which can be implemented as a long-term cultivated land protection policy; (3) maintaining the incentive fund at 5 billion CNY provides the greatest incentive for ATSOs to promote low-carbon agricultural technologies (LCAT), while the production trusteeship subsidies has no beneficial impact on ATSOs; (4) reducing production trusteeship costs and not increasing service charges is the most effective way of incentivizing ATSOs to promote LCAT. This means the service fee is maintained at 400 CNY/mu and the service cost is reduced to 308 CNY/mu. This study reveals the inner mechanism of CLP, provides a theoretical basis for the promotion of CLP technology, and proposes effective cultivated land protection suggestions, aiming to improve the overall implementation effect of CLP in China and help carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrialization has increased global carbon emissions, necessitating effective climate change mitigation measures. China, the most populous developing nation, faces the challenge of strategizing emissions to meet national carbon neutrality objectives. However, research on specific regions' carbon emissions drivers and causal factors is limited, particularly across prefectural-level cities. This study estimates the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions across China's prefectural cities and utilizes both OLS regression and stepwise regression models to analyze the impact of various factors influencing carbon emissions in these cities. Results reveal the following: (1) The country's overall 20-year carbon emissions continue to grow from 3020.29 Mt in 2001 to 9169.74 Mt in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 5.71%; the eastern region has seen a gradual deceleration in emissions, whereas the western region continues to experience an increase. Carbon emissions in cities within each subregion consistently rise. (2) Carbon emissions in Chinese prefectural-level cities exhibit strong spatial autocorrelation and clustering (Z > 1.96, p < 0.05), with hot spots primarily in the eastern coastal areas and cold spots in the northwest to southwest regions. (3) Economic and demographic factors significantly increase carbon emissions, while climate and urbanization effects are more complex and variable. Economic growth and population increase are the most significant influencing factors, but regional variances exist in carbon emissions determinants in subregional prefectural cities. These insights provide valuable insights into national emission dynamics at the prefectural level, providing a theoretical basis for enhancing carbon emission strategies across various jurisdictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Domestic regional synergistic emission reduction is important in achieving national climate goals. This study constructed a game theory-based model for regional synergistic emission reduction, modified the Basic Climate Game using the exact-hat algebra method, and expanded the game model using a general spatial equilibrium model to incorporate cross-regional economic impacts generated by emission reduction actions through factors and product flows. The formation of regional comparative advantages in emission reductions and their impact on synergistic emission reductions were revealed through regional characteristics such as emission elasticity, sectoral structure, regional trade shares, and green total factor productivity. A form of synergy was then proposed that utilizes the comparative advantages of different regions, allowing for synergistic emission reductions across different income regions and engagement with regions that are still at the carbon-peaking stage in cooperation. Moreover, the model was created to be as close to the economic reality as possible to provide a trade, industry, and economic growth policy that complements emission-reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To explore the role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality, the cointegration regression method and scenario analysis are utilized to forecast the long-term development trend of China's forest carbon sinks up to the year 2100 and their impact on carbon neutrality. The results show that: (1) Under routine, accelerated, and strengthened ecological civilization scenarios (or RECS, AECS, and SECS, respectively), China's forests are projected to absorb 531–645 million tons of carbon by 2050 and 2.32–4.69 billion tons of carbon by 2100, respectively, and the value of the strengthened scenario will be markedly higher than that of the routine scenario. (2) Driven by slower growth in forestry investment, China's forest carbon sinks growth in all three scenarios peak by 2050 and then slow in a U-trend, with the growth rate in the SECS 0.45 percentage points higher than that of AECS, and the growth rate in the AECS 0.44 percentage points higher than that of RECS. (3) Under SECS, forest carbon sinks can help China achieve its carbon neutrality goal in 2054 (before the target date of 2060) with cumulative forestry investment of 53.3 trillion yuan and an annual investment growth rate of about 6.3%. Therefore, this study provides a deeper understanding than previous works of the important role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is increasingly important in spatial planning for regions, cities, and areas. The combination of territorial and consumption-based accounting (CBA) approaches can currently be considered best practice for calculating GHG emissions at sub-national levels, in terms of informing local decision-making about the different climate impacts of spatial planning policies, both within the boundaries of a given region and for the inhabitants of that region. This study introduces four European case studies that were conducted using the two quantification approaches to assess the climate impacts of locally relevant planning policies. The case studies represent different scales of spatial planning, different European planning systems, and different situations in terms of data availability. Territorial results are not suitable for inter-regional comparison, but rather for internal monitoring, while CBA allows for comparison and provides a comprehensive picture of the global carbon footprint of residents, however, with indications that are more difficult to link to spatial planning decisions. Assessing impacts, and in particular interpreting results, requires both methodological understanding and knowledge of the local context. The results of the case studies show that setting climate targets and monitoring the success of climate action through a single net emissions figure can give false indications. The study shows that the two approaches to quantifying GHG emissions provide complementary perspectives on GHG emissions at the sub-national level and thus provide a more thorough understanding of the GHG emission patterns associated with spatial planning policies. The identification of the regional differences in GHG emission sources and mitigation potentials are the main functions of sub-national GHG inventories and the impact assessment for spatial planning. Harmonization of the data collection for sub-national GHG inventories and the transparency of underlying assumptions would greatly support the coherence of climate action and the implications to spatial planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimizing land use structure in urban agglomerations is essential to mitigating climate change and achieving carbon neutrality. However, the studies on low-carbon (LC) land use in the urban agglomeration based on carbon neutrality are still limited and lack the consideration of the optimized land ecological benefits. To reduce land use carbon emissions (LUCEs) and improve the ecological benefits of urban agglomerations, we constructed the framework of land use structure optimization (LUSO) under carbon neutrality. Then, in view of land use quantity structure and spatial distribution, we compared the results of LUCEs and the ecological benefits of the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (the CCUA) in 2030 under different scenarios. The results showed that in 2030, the LUCEs of the CCUA is 3481.6632 × 104 t under the carbon neutral scenario (CN_Scenario), which is significantly lower than the baseline scenario (BL_Scenario) and 2020. In the CN_Scenario, the land use/cover change (LUCC) in the CCUA is more moderate, the aggregation degree of the forestland (FL), grassland (GL), wetland (WL), and water (WTR) patch area deepens, and the overall landscape spreading degree is increased, which is more conducive to play the ecological benefit of carbon sink land. The results can provide a reference for the more efficient use of land resource areas and the formulation of land use and spatial planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates China's forestry green technology innovation efficiency (FGTIE) using slack-based Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. This research endeavours to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of FGTIE in China and identify its influencing factors. The results demonstrate obvious spatial distribution differences among Chinese FGTIEs, with the southwestern region being relatively stable and the central and southeastern regions being more variable, revealing a general state of clustered development. FGTIE demonstrates a significant spatial correlation. The correlation intensity reveals a 'W'-shaped, 'down–up–down' trend, suggesting that a universal spatial pattern of FGTIE has not yet developed a steady state and that stable spatial aggregation characteristics among provinces are evident. The influencing factors of FGTIE are confirmed to have significant spillover effects. Increases in social security, foreign direct investment and environmental policy stringency will promote efficiency improvements in neighbouring provinces through positive spillover effects, and the economic development level and forestry scale will inhibit efficiency improvements in neighbouring provinces through negative spillover effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and rapid urbanization bring natural and anthropogenetic disturbance to the urban ecosystem, damaging the sustainability and resilience of cities. Evaluation of urban ecological resilience and an investigation of its impact mechanisms are of great importance to sustainable urban management. Therefore, taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration (BTHUA) region in China as a study area, this study builds an evaluation index to assess urban ecological resilience and its spatial patterns with the resilience surrogate of net primary production during 2000–2020. The evaluation index is constructed from two dimensions, including the sensitivity and adaptability of urban ecosystems, to capture the two key mechanisms of resilience, namely resistance and recovery. Resilience-influencing factors including biophysical and socio-economic variables are analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. The results show that during 2000–2020, the spatial pattern of urban ecological resilience in the BTHUA is characterized by high resilience in the northwest and relatively low resilience in the southeast. High resilience areas account for 40% of the whole region, mainly contributed by Zhangjiakou and Chengde city in Hebei Province, which is consistent with the function orientation of the BTH region in its coordinated development. Along with urbanization in this region, ecological resilience decreases with increased population and increases with GDP growth; this indicates that, although population expansion uses resources, causes pollution and reduces vegetation coverage, with economic growth and technological progress, the negative ecological impact could be mitigated, and the coordinated development of social economy and ecological environment could eventually be reached. Our findings are consistent with mainstream theories examining the ecological impact of socio-economic development such as the Environmental Kuznets Curve, Porter Hypothesis, and Ecological Modernization theories, and provide significant references for future urbanization, carbon neutrality, resilience building, and urban ecological management in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the implementation of China's rural revitalization strategy, the social economy of villages is expected to fully develop; however, their carbon emissions must be controlled within a reasonable range. Realization of this goal is part of the guidance and control of village planning. Clarifying the coupling relationship between village land uses and rural carbon emissions is fundamental for low-carbon village planning. In this study, by exploring the relationships between carbon emissions factors, land-use types, and human activities, the reference range of carbon emissions coefficients for various land-use types in rural areas is obtained. Then, based on the interval values of carbon emissions coefficients, a two-stage optimization model for village carbon emissions analysis is established, which is used to generate the minimal value of village carbon emissions and planning schemes to achieve different carbon emissions target values. First, the smallest carbon emissions value for a certain village is obtained based on a linear programming model. Then, to analyze the planning scheme possibilities under different carbon emissions targets, an objective planning model (including various parameters) is constructed. Through this two-stage optimization model, the optimal planning scheme is set and corresponding planning indicators under different scenarios are obtained through a sensitivity analysis. Combined with a case study in Dongzhuang Village, Shanghai, the results indicate that, with continuous improvement of the basic national carbon emissions database, the range of carbon emissions coefficients for typical local land uses can be determined, and the carbon emissions and land-use types of villages can be co-planned using the two-stage optimization model. With the proposed model, the range of carbon emissions for villages and scenario analysis results considering carbon emissions values associated with various land-use planning schemes can be obtained, contributing greatly to low-carbon village planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use/land cover (LULC) change driven by land use policy always leads to dramatic change in carbon storage and sequestration, especially in a rapidly urbanizing region. However, few studies explored the influences of land use polices on carbon storage and sequestration in a rapidly urbanizing region. Through Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, the spatial-temporal pattern of carbon storage altered by LULC transformation and its linkage with land use policies were analyzed in five periods (1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2005, 2000-2010, 2010-2015) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region. The results indicated that: (1) the carbon storage in the YRD was substantially altered by continuous LULC transformation, totally decreased by 1.49 x 107 Mg during 1990-2015. (2) The total amount of carbon storage increased from 2.91 109 Mg in 1990 to 2.95 x 109 Mg in 1995, and then decreased to 2.90 x 109 Mg in 1995-2015. Thus, the total economic value of carbon storage increased approximately from 467.42 million dollars in 1990 to 472.99 million dollars in 1995, and then decreased to 465.01 million dollars in 2015. (3) The carbon storage and sequestration were influenced by LULC transformation driven by land use policies in five periods: large areas of grassland converted to woodland in 1990-1995 led by Forest Law, then clustered areas of cropland converted to built-up land in 1995-2015 around large cities of YRD Region led by Land Management Law and Development Plans, and finally, the conversion of cropland to built-up land was decreased and scattered in the entire region influenced by land use polices led by early stage of ecocivilization construction. The study can facilitate to develop regional land use policy for carbon storage conservation and carbon neutrality in a rapidly urbanizing region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]