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The Maasai Mara and the wider Mau River Basin in East Africa provide fundamental ecosystem services that support people, wildlife, livestock and agriculture. The historical indigenous land use of the Mara and wider Mau basin was wildlife conservation and pastoralism with highland agriculture. However, land policy changes, the rise of community conservancies and the increase in human populations have mediated unprecedented land use shifts over time. We analyze land use and land cover change (LULCC) trends from 1990 to 2040 in the Mara and the wider Mau River Basin landscape. The study examines land use and land cover change trends, establishes factors driving the trends, and assesses the implications of these trends on biodiversity. Multi-temporal satellite images, together with physical and social economic data, were collated to generate future scenarios for transitions for forest, shrubland, grassland, cropland, wetlands and built-up areas between 1990 and 2040. Agricultural expansion is the chief driver of LULCC in the Mara and the wider Mau River Basin, particularly since 2015. There was insignificant change to the forest cover after 2015, which was in part due to government intervention on forest encroachment and boundaries. The anthropogenic choice of tilling the land in the basin caused a decline in grasslands, forests and expanded shrublands, particularly where there was clear tree cutting in the Mau forest. Land use and land cover trends have generated undesirable impacts on ecosystem services that support wildlife conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social-ecological interactions mediate water–energy–food security in small developing islands, but community-scale insights are underrepresented in nexus research. These interactions are dynamic in their response to environmental and anthropogenic pressures and need to be understood to inform sustainable land use planning into the future. This study centered on bringing together diverse stakeholders to explore water–energy–food futures using the "Kesho" (meaning "tomorrow" in Kiswahili) scenario tool for two of the largest islands that comprise the Zanzibar Archipelago. The methodology comprised four core stages: (1) exploration of how past drivers of change impacted water–energy–food security; (2) modeling of a Business as Usual Scenario for land cover change; (3) narrative development to describe alternative futures for 2030 based on themes developed at the community scale; and (4) predictions about how narratives would shape land cover and its implications for the nexus. These results were used to model alternate land cover scenarios in TerrSet IDRISI (v. 18.31) and produce visual representations of expected change. Findings demonstrated that deforestation, saltwater incursion, and a reduction in permanent waterbodies were projected by 2030 in a Business as Usual Scenario. Three alternative scenario narratives were developed, these included Adaptation, Ecosystem Management, and Settlement Planning. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness of actions under the scenario options differ between the islands, indicating the importance of understanding the suitability of national policies across considered scales. Synergies across the alternative scenario narratives also emerged, including integrated approaches for managing environmental change, community participation in decision making, effective protection of forests, cultural sensitivity to settlement planning, and poverty alleviation. These synergies could be used to plan strategic action towards effectively strengthening water–energy–food security in Zanzibar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beyond the impacts of climate change, invasive plant species are known to threaten mountain ecosystems. Despite their importance and impact on multiple downstream communities, mountain ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change, population growth, and land-use change (Adler et al., 2022 [[1]]). Mountains are highly significant regions in the context of climate change and sustainable development; they are situated at the intersection of accelerated climate warming, changes in moisture regime and support a large population that depends on mountains for their livelihoods, either directly or indirectly (Adler et al., 2022 [[1]]). Dax et al. (2021) [[15]] study the risk of land abandonment in mountain regions in Europe and show that this risk is three times higher in mountain areas than in non-mountain areas. [Extracted from the article]

A detailed analysis of distribution shifts in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. is provided across time for Izta-Popo National Park (México). Combining satellite images, species distribution models, and connectivity analysis we disentangled the effect of climate change and anthropogenic land use on the habitat availability. Twenty-four Maxent habitat suitability models with varying complexity were combined with insights on vegetation and land cover change derived from two Landsat satellite images at 30-m resolution from 1993 and 2013. To evaluate effects of climate change on Izta-Popo’s P. hartwegii forest, projections for future climatic conditions (averaged for 2050 and 2070) were derived using two General Circulation Models under three Representative CO2 concentration pathways (RCPs). Calculated fragmentation and connectivity indexes (Equivalent Connected Area and Probability of Connectivity metrics) showed significant habitat loss and habitat fragmentation that weakens P. hartwegii dispersion flux and the strength of connections. Projections of future climate conditions showed a reduction of P. hartwegii habitat suitability as populations would have to migrate to higher altitudes. However, the impact of anthropogenic land use change documented over the 20 years masks the predicted impact of climate change in Izta-Popo National Park [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain environments and communities are disproportionately impacted by climate change. Changes in temperature are greater than at lower elevations, which affect the height of the cloud base and local rainfall patterns. While our knowledge of the biophysical nature of climate change in East Africa has increased in the past few years, research on Indigenous farmers’ perceptions and adaptation responses is still lacking, particularly in mountains regions. Semistructured interviews were administered to 300 farmers on Mount Kilimanjaro (n = 150) and the Udzungwa Mountains (n = 150) in Tanzania across gender and wealth groups. Respondents in both mountains reported not only changes in rainfall and temperature, corresponding with meteorological data, but also a greater incidence of fog, wind, frost, and hailstorms—with impacts on decreased crop yields and increased outbreaks of pests. The most common adaptation strategies used were improved crop varieties and inputs. Wealthier households diversified into horticulture or animal rearing, while poorer households of Hehe ethnicity diversified to labour and selling firewood. Despite being climate change literate and having access to radios, most respondents used Indigenous knowledge to decide on planting dates. Our findings highlight how context and culture are important when designing adaptation options and argue for greater involvement of local stakeholders in adaptation planning using a science-with-society approach. Place-based results offer generalisable insights that have application for other mountains in the Global South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]