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Context: Decades of intensifying human activities have led to drastic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB), resulting in significant changes in landscape pattern and ecosystem service value (ESV), thereby affecting regional sustainability. Objectives: We focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the landscape pattern and ESV of the PLB and used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) to predict LULC changes in 2050. Methods: We evaluated landscape patterns using landscape metrics and calculated ESV using the ecosystem service equivalent factor method. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between landscape patterns and ESV from 1990 to 2020. Then, we combined the PLUS model and the ecosystem service equivalent factor method to calculate the ESV under multiple scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Results: From 1990 to 2020, the LULC of the PLB changed to varying degrees. The PLB has undergone a rapid process of landscape fragmentation, and the total ESV of the PLB has decreased. The total ESV was positively correlated with the CONTAG index and negatively correlated with the SHDI index. Between 2020 and 2050, the ESV of the PLB is projected to decrease under the NDS (nature development scenario) and EDS (economic development scenario) and increase under the EPS (ecological protection scenario). Conclusions: ESV responded to changes in landscape pattern. We recommend that the PLB should increase patch connectivity. Additionally, future development in the PLB should prioritize ecological protection to prevent further declines in ESV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Doñana's landscape is a mosaic of different types of transitions at different spatial and temporal scales. Among them, stationary transitions are relatively stable over time, while directional transitions involve the unidirectional movement of boundaries. The fiftieth anniversary of the Doñana National Park (SW Spain) provided a framework to test the transformation of a biotic transition from stationary to directional. Objectives: This study aimed to examine landscape changes along a stationary groundwater-dependent transition, the processes responsible for them, and the consequences for the biotic transition. Methods: Through detailed photointerpretation, nine land use/land cover categories were mapped at four dates (1971, 1984, 2002, 2019) on a ca. 2 square km plot, and then changes analysed at three levels (interval, category, and transition) using Intensity Analysis. Potential causes including precipitation, groundwater levels, local management and changes in the surroundings were examined to understand the changes. Results: Juniper woodland, spontaneous pines and mixed shrub categories showed the greatest gains and were most active. In the third interval (2002–19) largest transitions from pond-grassland to several terrestrial categories and the dead of heathlands indicate the encroachment of xeric communities into hygrophytic ones. Observed changes seem to be due to succession, forestry management and extrinsic drivers such groundwater overexploitation in the surroundings of the protected area. Conclusions: The long-term study of this stationary transition shows the weakening of the factors that controlled its establishment, the loss of its constituent habitats due to groundwater withdrawal, and its conversion into a directional transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The Mediterranean mountains have witnessed the revegetation of former pasture and cultivated fields since the mid-20th century. The process started when the mountains joined a dynamic and competitive market, which led to depopulation, abandoning cultivated fields, and a reduction in extensive livestock farming. Objectives: We investigate changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and landscape structure in a valley of the Central Pyrenees in 1956, 1981 and 2017, and we discuss the implications for land management within a multidisciplinary context. Methods: Aerial photographs are used to map the LULC in 1956, 1981 and 2017, followed by landscape ecology metrics and indices to analyse the structure of the landscape. Results: The results show: (i) a reduction in cultivated area (-42%) and pastures (-63%) in the montane belt between 1956 and 2017, while forests doubled in area; (ii) changes in LULC are more significant in the montane belt than in subalpine and alpine areas; (iii) based on the Kappa index, it was found that the 29% of the area had undergone changes in LULC between 1956 and 2017, with the changes being greater in the first period (1956–1981) than in the second (1981–2017); (iv) the structure and heterogeneity of the landscape shows an increase between 1956 and 1981, and a change in trend from 1981 to 2017, so that the landscape is more homogeneous in 2017 than in 1956. Conclusion: The discussion suggests the need to maintain and recover mosaic landscapes, since their structure is akin to traditional cultural ones, to increase biodiversity and sustainability, and provide ecosystem services to the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Here we develop a practical framework (Mosaico) and report a real-world example of early implementation of a Fire-Smart Territory (FST) in Sierra de Gata-Las Hurdes region of central Spain. Objectives: We aimed to assess the impact of landscape changes induced by Local Land Managers (LLM; indirect prevention) on simulated fire spread under different governance scenarios developed in 2016–2021. Methods: Following a participatory process in the region, we received 250 proposals for intervention (49.6% from agriculturalists, 22.8% from forest producers-mainly resin tappers-, and 27.6% from shepherds). From the 94 (37.6%) proposals implemented by the end of the study, we quantified changes in fuel models over the whole territory (Scenario 1, S1). Then, we simulated fires in 20 ignition points to estimate area burned in S1 and three other governance scenarios. Results: To date, the sole intervention of LLMs results in a low to moderate impact (current mean 10.5; median 1.8), which can be explained by the high frequency of small-scale interventions (agriculture) and the comparatively modest impact on fuel reduction of large-scale interventions (livestock grazing). A combination of LLM and public actions is needed to reach a more substantial reduction of burned area (S2-S3, mean % impact 14.1–18.9; median 6.9–10.8). Relaxing legal/administrative constraints to allow large private intervention would result in the greatest attainable impact on burned area (S4, mean 25.0; median 17.8). Adaptive management of Mosaico approach must be focussed on improving LLM capacity to modify larger portions of the territory and prioritizing critical areas such as fire propagation nodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The paper studies the possibilities of how the cultural explosion theory and path dependence approach could be used for exploring landscape (change). The former is an approach (not theory) used in humanities and social sciences to study the processes that happen when culture changes rapidly—how new cultural processes are created and how the past ones are integrated or forgotten. The latter is an approach developed also in social sciences, mostly economy, to study how the current decisions are dependent on the past decisions. Objectives: To demonstrate the possibilities the two theoretical approaches might offer. Methods: We discuss the ways landscape change could be analysed using, first, cultural explosion theory and, second path dependence approach, and demonstrate this on the example of the post-Soviet military areas. Results: Both approaches are indeed useful in understanding landscape change. The demo case on military landscapes allows for distinguishing three different development paths for the future of the areas: set-aside, active use, and neglect. Similarly three different ways of relating with the past are found: ignorance and oblivion; acknowledging the past; and making use of the past. Conclusions: Landscapes have time boundaries and these two analytical tools in fact help us to navigate through these boundaries, understand better the trajectories of change and the importance (or the lack of it) of the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Theorizing complex phenomena like human–environment relationships is difficult and often of dubious explanatory value. If our goal is to understand causal interactions between people and the land and to explain environmental changes in the landscape, the more pressing need is for better causal–analytic methodology, not for more or better theory per se. Objectives: This paper presents a research methodology based on causal–historical analysis, called Abductive Causal Eventism (ACE), and makes the case that social scientists and environmental change researchers may benefit from adopting this instead of a theory-focused approach. Methods: ACE is described and its application illustrated by recent research on land use change and reforestation in Saint Lucia, West Indies. Key findings are related to the literature on so-called forest transitions (FTs). Results: Early writings about FTs sought to theorize the phenomenon, but studies have since revealed that FTs are the outcome of diverse causal pathways and contingent events. Likewise, Saint Lucia's recent FT reflects a variety of causal influences interacting in complex ways, and FTs have occurred there before. Conclusions: These findings counsel against hasty theorizing and policy prescription and highlight the advantages of a methodological approach (ACE) that is adaptable to different and changing contexts and accounts for both general and contingent causes. Theories and policy that emerge from ACE research will be the richer (and wiser) for it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Anthropogenic activities alter natural habitats, with impacts on species that live in human-modified systems. Often abrupt, anthropogenic influences not only alter the availability and distribution of suitable habitats for species, but also the ability of species to perceive variations within the landscape. Researchers studying the drivers of species distribution and behavior often use "static" land-cover maps as descriptors of habitat, which are most typically characterized at predictably cyclical seasonal scales. Changes that occur over shorter temporal scales are rarely quantified, and there is a lack of understanding of how landscapes change within seasons. Objectives: We propose a generic work-flow to identify the temporal scales at which changes in land-cover patterns can be detected within a landscape. Methods: We use easily calculated landscape metrics such as patch area, inter-patch distance (ENN) and shape complexity (SHAPE), obtained using high-resolution satellite imagery. We conducted pairwise comparisons for each metric and LULC class separately, at temporal scales corresponding to 15, 30, 45 and 60-day intervals, using a case study from central India. Results: We observed that changes in landscape structure and in land-cover classes can be detected even at a 15-day time period in human-dominated landscapes. In our case-study, agricultural fallows showed the highest proportion of change-points. The grassland class was the most stable across metrics and time-scales. Among metrics, SHAPE was the most stable and ENN was the most dynamic, indicating that while patch structure remained relatively stable, patch configuration changed more rapidly. Conclusions: We suggest that when studying animal resource use and movement, particularly in anthropogenically modified systems, matching the temporal resolution of landscape-level data to animal movement data is critical, as broad-scale data may miss key triggers of animal response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Striking land-use changes after WW II characterize the past century in the European Alps with impact on ecosystems and biodiversity. Documenting land-use changes is often difficult due to limited information from the past. Mapping landscape history with aerial photography can foster the understanding of human-induced changes in vulnerable ecosystems, such as the remnants of dry grasslands in the Central Alps. Objectives: We aimed to assess changes in grassland vegetation and their current extent in Val Venosta (European Alps, Italy) in relation to overall landscape settings, anthropogenic drivers of change and the effectiveness of the protected areas. Methods: We performed a land-cover classification based on a mixed machine learning approach including several auxiliary classifiers in a random forest model to characterise the extent and state of (dry) grasslands. We calculated landscape metrics between 1945 and 2015 to assess shape-related changes, especially regarding their landscape embedding and the protection status of sites. Results: Three main processes related to a changing extent in grassland habitat prevail: (i) agricultural intensification, (ii) settlement expansion at the valley bottom and (iii) forest expansion (afforestation and encroachment due to decreasing pasture activities) on the valley slopes. The remaining grassland habitat is increasingly isolated and fragmented, leaving only few core areas of dry grassland, which tended to be better conserved within protected areas. Conclusion: The changes in extent of dry grasslands revealed marked changes. Transformations are assumed to be predominantly caused by human impact and successional changes. Our results confirm the importance of protected area networks. The pronounced landscape changes underline the urgent need for future research with explicit focus on the changes at community level and the underlying causes. Identifying all relevant drivers of change should be a key element in targeted conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: A variety of processes, such as urbanization and development projects, can degrade connectivity in habitat systems, presenting significant threats to species persistence. Effective mitigation of such threats depends in part on knowledge about where and when landscape changes may occur as well as how species may respond to changes in the landscape. Objectives: A spatial decision support framework for informing planning efforts involving alterations to the landscape that may impact prospects for species' inter-habitat connectivity is proposed. Methods: As a variety of movement objectives are thought to influence species' perception of habitat connectivity, efficient paths supporting movement among habitats in a planning period are identified by way of a multiobjective least-cost path model. This set of paths represent the best options for inter-habitat connectivity in a particular planning period. Provided this representation of inter-habitat connectivity, the worst-case scenario of landscape alteration on inter-habitat connectivity is then identified. This multi-level optimization process is repeated over a set of planning periods until inter-habitat connectivity has been completely eliminated. Results: The results indicate that representing habitat connectivity with a limited set of paths reflecting a single objective for species movement could result in an overestimate of a habitat system's resilience to landscape change over time. Representations of connectivity involving a more diverse set of paths reflecting tradeoffs among a set of objectives offer more robust representation of complex biological movements. Conclusions: The application results indicate that landscape alterations occurring more proximate to habitat patches have the highest negative impact to connectivity. In addition, whereas alterations to the landscape may have no or little impact on inter-habitat connectivity in one planning period, when coupled with future alterations they can result in significant barriers to connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Reliable scaling relationships allow prediction of unknown quantities at scales not directly observed. Scaling relationships for landscape patterns are commonly estimated following a process of coarse graining, in which pixels are aggregated and a mathematical function is then fit across the multiple resolutions. However, few studies have investigated how aggregation changes the landscape composition and configuration, which in turn alters the fitted scaling function and any predictions made using that function. Objective: Evaluate how changes in composition/configuration produced by coarse graining affect scaling function fit and the accuracy of that function for predicting patterns at finer resolutions than observed. Methods: Neutral model landscapes with controlled composition/configuration were generated in QRule. Each raster was aggregated to seven coarser resolutions, and landscape metrics computed. Five scaling functions were fit to the seven-value set for each landscape and metric. The best-performing function for each landscape/metric was downscaled to predict the metric at a fine resolution not used in the scale-fitting process. Downscaling accuracy was measured through relative error. Results: (1) The power law is the only function that consistently fit scalograms across all compositions/configurations. (2) Downscaling accuracy is more sensitive to configuration than composition. (3) Majority rules aggregation preserves information better with dispersed land covers. (4) Downscaling accuracies were highest around power law exponents of − 0.5 suggesting the structure of the power law may affect results. Conclusions: Aggregation impacts the fit and use of scaling functions for downscaling/prediction. Research to differentiate aggregation effects from physical processes in complex, real-world landscapes is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Although many species have transboundary geographic ranges, most conservation initiatives do not cross political boundaries. The landscape between the Adirondack Mountains in New York and the Laurentian Mountains in Québec includes one of three potential north–south transboundary wildlife movement linkages that connect wilderness areas in northeastern USA and southeastern Canada. Although this region still maintains habitats of high ecological integrity and biodiversity, increasing land-cover changes and fragmentation are putting landscape connectivity at risk. Objectives: We measured changes in landscape composition and configuration within the Adirondack-to-Laurentians transboundary wildlife linkage (A2L) between 1992 and 2018 to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration. Methods: Land-cover change was calculated by measuring area and proportion of land-cover classes, and landscape fragmentation was determined by measuring patch number, mean patch size, the effective mesh size, and road density, at three spatial scales and four fragmentation geometries (i.e., combinations of fragmenting elements). Results: Extensive changes in land-cover and landscape fragmentation occurred within the A2L between 1992 and 2018. Forest areas declined by 1363 km2 and wetlands declined by 1365 km2 (69%). This was most pronounced in the Québec portion of the A2L where wetland areas declined by 872 km2 (88.5%). Forest areas in the Québec portion experienced the greatest amount of fragmentation with a meff_CUT decline of 3262.5 km2 (58.5%) since 2000. Conclusions: Coordinated and collaborative transboundary conservation efforts help improve protection of species with transboundary ranges. Monitoring of land-cover changes and landscape fragmentation is an effective way to identify priority areas for conservation and support transboundary coordination. Strengthening conservation strategies that enhance landscape connectivity and protect ecosystems at the local level will help achieve post-2020 biodiversity commitments at the national and transboundary levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Soaring birds depend on atmospheric uplifts and are sensitive to wind energy development. Predictive modelling is instrumental to forecast conflicts between human infrastructures and single species of concern. However, as multiple species often coexist in the same area, we need to overcome the limitations of single species approaches. Objectives: We investigate whether predictive models of flight behaviour can be transferred across species boundaries. Methods: We analysed movement data from 57 white storks, Ciconia ciconia, and 27 griffon vultures, Gyps fulvus. We quantified the accuracy of topographic features, correlates of collision risk in soaring birds, in predicting their soaring behaviour, and tested the transferability of the resulting suitability models across species. Results: 59.9% of the total area was predicted to be suitable to vultures only, and 1.2% exclusively to storks. Only 20.5% of the study area was suitable to both species to soar, suggesting the existence of species-specific requirements in the use of the landscape for soaring. Topography alone could accurately predict 75% of the soaring opportunities available to storks across Europe, but was less efficient for vultures (63%). While storks relied on uplift occurrence, vultures relied on uplift quality, needing stronger uplifts to support their higher body mass and wing loading. Conclusions: Energy landscapes are species-specific and more knowledge is required to accurately predict the behaviour of highly specialised soaring species, such as vultures. Our models provide a base to explore the effects of landscape changes on the flight behaviour of different soaring species. Our results suggest that there is no reliable and responsible way to shortcut risk assessment in areas where multiple species might be at risk by anthropogenic structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Global biodiversity decreases rapidly, driven by various factors ranging from climate change to anthropogenic activities. Identifying driving forces of population decline is critical for biological conservation. Time-series data are especially valuable for this goal, but unfortunately, high-quality time-series data are generally lacking, hampering evidences-based conservation policy making. Objectives: In this study, we examined how population growth rates of wintering waterbird species changed across 34 years (1986–2019) in response to changes in landscape context, climatic, ecological and anthropogenic factors in the Yangtze River Floodplain. Specifically: we aimed to (1) understand the factors that are correlated with the population trend of each waterbird species, and (2) identify the spatial scale at which each waterbird species responds to surrounding landscape changes. Methods: We systemically collected wintering survey data from 1986 to 2019 in Shengjin Lake National Nature Reserve for six waterbird species including Oriental stork (Ciconia boyciana), Eurasian spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia), Tundra swan (Cygnus columbianus), Swan goose (Anser cygnoid), Hooded crane (Grus monacha) and White-naped crane (Grus vipio), coupled with climatic and anthropogenic data. Satellite images were analyzed to characterize ecological variables and landscape context (both in landscape and class levels). Results: Our results suggested that anthropogenic landscape changes surrounding wetland habitats (i.e., landscape context) acted as the primary factors driving the waterbird population changes and were responsible for the observed population declines. In particular, increasing built-up areas and decreasing cropland areas associated with urbanization and human settlement expansion largely explained the declining population size. Our results also showed that different variables operated at a different scale of the landscape context, highlighting the importance of the surrounding landscape configuration at both small and larger scales, as built-up area was most important at around 8 km for most of the studied species, but cropland area expansion benefitted the two crane species at a larger spatial extent. The fishing ban policy implemented in 2017 provides an opportunity for reversing such declines, as positive effects of reduced human activities were observed in a portion of waterbird species. Conclusions: The demonstrated strong effects of landscape context on wetland biodiversity illustrated that practical mitigating measures can increase conservation success if they not only target the wetland habitats per se but also include the surrounding non-wetland areas at larger spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Reductions in the tiger's (Panthera tigris) range in Southeast Asia have been concurrent with large infrastructure expansion and landscape change. Thailand's Dong Phayayen-Khao Yai Forest Complex (DPKY), a landscape of tiger conservation priority, may be particularly vulnerable to such changes, necessitating investigations into effects on population dynamics. Objectives: Evaluate relative effects of landscape change scenarios on the probability of tiger persistence in DPKY and sensitivity of predictions to spatially-explicit mortality risk, landscape resistance, and tiger population density. Methods: We utilize individual-based, spatially-explicit population modelling to evaluate the trajectory of tiger population dynamics across 11 landscape change scenarios. Concurrently, we evaluate sensitivity of predictions to landscape resistance transformation, maximum population density, and spatially-explicit mortality across 20 generations. Results: Spatially-explicit mortality risk dominated predictions of population persistence, frequently resulting in population declines/extinction. Adjustment of moderate mortality risk to slightly convex and concave forms shifted extinction rates from 46 to 12% and 85%, respectively. Holding mortality constant at moderate levels, strong negative effects were predicted in landscape change scenarios incorporating road expansion (46%-74% extinction) and construction of dams (52%). Strong negative effects of combined development persisted even when habitat restoration measures were applied (96% extinction). Adjusting resistance and maximum population density had marginal effects. Conclusions: The high sensitivity and variability of predictions to spatial patterns of mortality risk suggest a population on a proverbial knife's edge. Our results underscore the importance of incorporating spatial patterns of mortality risk in population modelling, highlighting their potentially dominating influence on population dynamics and extinction risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Habitat loss and alteration affect wildlife populations worldwide. Bush encroachment alters landscapes and threatens arid and semi-arid grasslands, but its effects on predator–prey relationships and carnivore community ecology are not well understood. Predation strategies of large predators, for example high-speed pursuits versus ambush from short distances, are likely to be affected differently by bush encroachment. Objectives: We assessed how bush encroachment affects overall predation success of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) and leopards (Panthera pardus) in a savanna landscape under variable fractional woody cover (FWC). We tested if predation success remained relatively unchanged for leopards across a gradient of FWC, and whether cheetah predation was most successful at low to intermediate cover and varied seasonally. Methods: Belly scores of predators were measured from camera-trap images collected over 7 years in north-central Namibia and used to index predation success. We derived predicted belly score probabilities as a function of FWC, which was measured using a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)-derived satellite data layer. Results: Predicted leopard predation success was highest at 0.27–0.34 FWC in the dry season, potentially due to lower prey density in highly covered areas and decreased prey catchability in low cover. Predicted cheetah predation success was highest at 0.24–0.28 FWC in the wet season, potentially due to increased landscape openness, high availability of habitat margins for visualising and stalking prey, and decreased kleptoparasitism by leopards. These results highlight optimal habitat cover thresholds that favour lower FWC for cheetah than for leopard. Conclusions: The findings indicate that landscape heterogeneity is important for predation success of cheetahs and leopards, suggesting that habitat management should focus on bush control efforts to maintain intermediate levels of bush cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Trade-offs between ecosystem services (ES) occur by premeditated decision or as an involuntary consequence of landscape change. This has been highlighted as a challenge to human well-being and landscape sustainability. Little is known about the main research topics on ES trade-offs and the evolution of this subject over time. Objectives: To identify the main areas of research in the study of ES trade-offs in landscapes and analyze the temporal evolution of the scientific field. Methods: We conducted a scientometric analysis to visualize the structural configuration of the ES trade-offs field of study; and identify its thematic trends and temporal evolution employing CiteSpace co-citation analysis. Results: We identified seven articles that are pivotal to the discipline and four main areas of research: (1) landscape functioning and ES, (2) interactions between multiple ES, (3) landscape management, (4) social-ecological perspective. The field of study is evolving through a transition to a qualitative perspective with approaches that includes social perceptions of ES trade-offs across landscapes. This transition is driven by the emerging trend in the discipline: social-ecological perspective in ES trade-off assessments. Conclusions: The scientific field is contributing to the construction of a body of knowledge about the relationship between ES and human well-being which is a substantial support to for advancing in landscape sustainability science. Future works could focus on the development of methodologies that strongly incorporate the temporal scale in ES trade-offs, including social variables and participatory approaches in ES trade-offs assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The effects of landscape structure on biodiversity may change with the spatial and temporal scale at which landscape structure is measured. Identifying the spatial extent and temporal scale at which the biodiversity-landscape relationship is strongest (i.e., the scale of effect) is important to better understand the effect of landscape structure. Objectives: The spatial and temporal scale of effect is analyzed to identify whether it differs in ecologically distinct species groups. How species richness-landscape relationship changes with spatial and temporal scales is tested. Methods: Based on 98 survey plots (1 km2) of vascular plants on the Swiss Plateau, we analyzed the relationships between species richness of different species groups and landscape predictors at different spatial extents (1 km2, 4 km2, 16 km2, 36 km2) and time periods (past landscapes—1985, 1997, 2009 and the current landscape 2018). Results: The spatial scale of effect was 1 km for most species groups, while the temporal scale of effect differed among species groups. The strength of the species richness-landscape relationship generally decreased with increased spatial extents, while it changed little across temporal scales. Conclusions: Although our study only considered changes in landscape structure over the last c. 30 years, ecologically distinct species groups revealed differences in the temporal scale of effect including a rapid response of neophytes linked to ongoing biological invasions. However, the variation in the species richness-landscape relationship was greater when changing spatial extent than time. We highlight that studying the relationship between landscape structure and biodiversity should consider not only space but also time, and different responses of ecologically distinct species groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Climate and land-use changes affect species ranges and movements. However, these changes are usually overlooked in connectivity studies, and this could have adverse consequences in the definition of effective management measures. Objectives: We evaluated two ways to incorporate landscape dynamics: (i) by analyzing connectivity as a fluctuating phenomenon (i.e., time-varying connectivity); and (ii) by analyzing species movements from past to current ranges (i.e., spatio-temporal connectivity). We also compared these dynamic approaches with traditional static connectivity methods. Methods: We compared the overall connectivity values and the prioritization of critical habitat patches according to dynamic and static approaches using habitat availability metrics (Probability of Connectivity and Equivalent Connected Area). This comparative research was conducted for species associated with broadleaf forests of the different ecoregions of the Iberian Peninsula. We considered species habitat preferences during movement and a wide range of dispersal abilities to assess functional connectivity. Results: Static approaches generated varying overall connectivity values and priority patches depending on the time snapshot considered and different from those generated by dynamic approaches. The two dynamic connectivity approaches resulted in very similar priority conservation patches, indicating their potential to guide enduring conservation measures that enhance connectivity between contemporary habitat patches at multiple time snapshots but also species range shifts in time. Conclusions: Connectivity is affected by landscape changes, and only dynamic approaches can overcome the issues associated with these changes and provide valuable information to guide improved and enduring measures in changing landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: River landscapes represent hotspots for biodiversity and ecosystem services used and embraced by human agents. Changes in river landscapes are subjectively perceived by people and can be assessed through the lenses of cultural ecosystem services (CES) and sense of place (SOP). Objectives: This study aims to assess people–place relationships in a river landscape by integrating SOP theory and the CES concept and critically reflecting on their interplay. Research objectives relate to meanings and attachments attributed by citizens to places and the influence of the physical environment and socioeconomic settings. Methods: We employed a spatially meaningful place indicator in a public participation GIS survey, combining meanings elucidated through a free listing exercise and multiple-choice questions. Statistical analyses were employed to investigate relationships between meanings, place attachment, and environmental and social variables. Results: The results showed that (1) place meaning assessments can complement place attachment data by enhancing the understanding of relationships to biophysical and socioeconomic variables, and (2) combinations of both assessment approaches for place meanings showed that CESs were reflected in many free listed meaning types, dominantly related to forms or practices, but neglect relational values, such as "Heimat" (i.e., in German expression of the long-standing connection to an area) or memories. Conclusions: This paper explicates synergies between SOP theory and CES concept. CES research offers insights from spatial assessments, while SOP research provides theoretical depth regarding relational values linked to CES. This paper critically reflects the ostensible consent of understanding SOP as a CES and proposes considering SOP as an overarching theory for CES assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Agent-based models (ABMs) and state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) have proven useful for understanding processes underlying social-ecological systems and evaluating practical questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. ABMs can simulate a variety of agents (autonomous units, such as wildlife or people); agent characteristics, decision-making, adaptive behavior, and mobility; and agent-environment interactions. STSMs are flexible and intuitive stochastic landscape models that can track scenarios and integrate diverse data. Both can be run spatially and track metrics of management success. Objectives: Due to the complementarity of these approaches, we sought to couple them through a dynamic linkage and demonstrate the relevance of this advancement for modeling landscape processes and patterns. Methods: We developed analytical techniques and software tools to couple these modeling approaches using NetLogo, R, and the ST-Sim package for SyncroSim. We demonstrated the capabilities and value of this coupled approach through a proof-of-concept case study of bison-vegetation interactions in Badlands National Park. Results: The coupled ABM-STSM: (1) streamlined handling of model inputs and outputs; (2) allowed representation of processes at multiple temporal scales; (3) minimized assumptions; and (4) generated spatial and temporal patterns that better reflected agent-environment interactions. Conclusions: These developments constitute a new approach for representing agent-environment feedbacks; modelers can now use output from an ABM to dictate landscape changes within an STSM that in turn influence agents. This facilitates experimentation across domains (agent and environment) and creation of more realistic and management-relevant projections, and opens new opportunities for communicating models and linking to other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The Dry Chaco spans more than 87 million hectares across Argentina, Bolivia, and Paraguay. This unique forest system has experienced extensive loss and fragmentation due to land-use change, with different land-use histories in the three countries. This forest loss has altered landscape connectivity for the Dry Chaco's associated biota. Objectives: We compared patterns of deforestation-induced fragmentation and concomitant changes in structural landscape connectivity between 2000 and 2019 in the three countries to identify consistent patterns that might facilitate biome-wide conservation. Methods: We quantified forest cover in the Dry Chaco of Argentina, Bolivia, and Paraguay for the years 2000 and 2019 at 30 m resolution. We analyzed structural connectivity at three scales. Then, we identified and visualized the most important stepping stones per country per year. Results: Between 2000 and 2019, the overall extent of Dry Chaco forest cover decreased by 20.2% (9.5 million ha). All three counties experienced substantial reductions, with Paraguay undergoing the greatest loss and fragmentation relative to 2000. Most of the overall network metrics decreased from 2000 to 2019 for Paraguay and Bolivia, but Argentina experienced increased coalescence distance and average nodal connectance. Dispersal-level metrics showed clustering threshold distances between 1000 and 2000 m for each country in both years. Conclusions: The large number of forest fragments and distances between them suggest that some mammals characteristic of the biome may be experiencing negative impacts from this fragmentation. Contemporary and future challenges of uncoordinated national conservation and management policies, land speculation, and increased human infrastructure will accelerate the rate of deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Landscape ecology early on developed the awareness that central objects of investigation are not stable over time and therefore the historical dimension must be included, or at least considered. Objectives: This paper considers the importance of history in landscape ecology in terms of its impact on patterns and processes and proposes to complement these with the notion of pathways in order to provide a comprehensive analysis of landscape change. Methods: We develop a conceptual framework distinguishing between legacy effects, which include pattern and processes, and path dependence, with a focus of development pathways and we illustrate these perspectives by empirical examples. Results: Combined short- to long-lasting imprints and legacies of historical patterns and processes reveal how present patterns and processes are in various ways influenced by legacies of the past. The focus on inherent dynamics of development pathways sheds light on the process of change itself, and its trajectories, and reveals the role of event chains and institutional reproduction. Conclusions: Understanding patterns, processes, and pathways over time, allows a more complete analysis of landscape change, and forms the base to preserve vital ecosystem services of both human-made and natural landscapes for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Literature on the ecological impacts of landscape change (LC) has increased dramatically over the last few decades. However, there has not been systematic evidence from a landscape ecology perspective about the evolution of research in this field as well as the main gaps in knowledge. Objectives: Our objective was to track the advancement of research on ecological impacts of LC by identifying the main topics, as well as emerging trends, primary findings and main impacts of LC in a Chilean biodiversity hotspot. Methods: We used CiteSpace to conduct a bibliometric analysis to represent the knowledge domain and to identify scientific literature related to the impacts of LC in a Chilean biodiversity hotspot between 1990 and 2019. Results: We found that articles most frequently focused on compositional attributes of biodiversity (41%) and on analyzing impacts at the community (43%) and population level (34%). In particular, changes in community structure and composition and biologic interactions were the most frequently studied. Research on quantifying forest loss and fragmentation using spatially explicit modeling techniques over a long temporal scale were a turning point in LC impact research. We found several gaps in LC research, including lack of studies that simultaneously address multiple levels of the ecological hierarchy and that address linkages between ecological processes and the provisioning ecosystem services. Conclusions: Studies that address the impacts of LC at multiple levels of ecological hierarchies and on ecosystem processes and services are needed. Furthermore, our findings highlight the importance of place-based research syntheses to identify research gaps and meet sustainability goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Modifications to land surface thermal regime by climate change and land cover/land-use change may influence ecosystem structure and function in arid landscapes, but relevant studies are scarce. Large changes in the land surface thermal regime can disturb the hydro-ecological integrity of these landscapes. Thus, it is important to assess landscape change and ecological risk to promote arid landscape sustainability. Objectives: This study predicted the landscape change and quantified the Bayanbulak ecological risk evolution through a susceptibility-hazard assessment system. Methods: CA–Markov model was used to simulate the landscape change, while ERA model that builds the susceptibility-hazard indices rapport was applied to evaluate the Bayanbulak wetland ecological risk using 30 m remotely sensed data. Results: Findings unveiled that modifications in water, meadow, and marshes are predicted to decline at a rate of 39.3, 6.32, 23.98% in 2069 respectively. As wetland hazard, the LST average increased from 20 to 22 °C with a maximum value of 35.2 °C from 1994 to 2019. Likewise, wetland susceptibility mean value increased from 1.10 to 1.20, a growth rate of 9.09%. Though the decline in high-risk zones, moderate risk zones drastically augmented at the extent of 70.5% while low risk and no risk zones declined with a reduction rate of 18.9 and 95.8% respectively. Overall observations exhibited that Bayanbulak ecological risk is slightly evolving. Conclusion: Bayanbulak is a pool of ecosystem services. By highlighting its ecological risk evolution, we call upon the focus on factors driving LST increment and adopt climatic adaptation measures of aqua-terrestrial ecosystems for Bayanbulak management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Historical maps of land use/land cover (LULC) enable detection of landscape changes, and help to assess drivers and potential future trajectories. However, historical maps are often limited in their spatial and temporal coverage. There is a need to develop and test methods to improve re-construction of historical landscape change. Objectives: To implement a modelling method to accurately identify key land use changes over a rural landscape at multiple time points. Methods: We used existing LULC maps at two time points for 1930 and 2015, along with a habitat time-series dataset, to construct two new, modelled LULC maps for Dorset in 1950 and 1980 to produce a four-step time-series. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Scenario Generator tool to model new LULC maps. Results: The modelled 1950 and 1980 LULC maps were cross-validated against habitat survey data and demonstrated a high level of accuracy (87% and 84%, respectively) and low levels of model uncertainty. The LULC time-series revealed the timing of LULC changes in detail, with the greatest losses in neutral and calcareous grassland having occurred by 1950, the period when arable land expanded the most, whilst the expansion in agriculturally-improved grassland was greatest over the period 1950–1980. Conclusions: We show that the modelling approach is a viable methodology for re-constructing historical landscapes. The time-series output can be useful for assessing patterns and changes in the landscape, such as fragmentation and ecosystem service delivery, which is important for informing future land management and conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Forest systems are dynamic and can alternate between alternative stable states in response to climate, disturbance and internal abiotic and biotic conditions. Switching between states depends on the crossing of critical thresholds and the establishment of feedbacks that drive (and maintain) changes in ecosystem functioning. The nature of these thresholds and the workings of these feedbacks have been well-researched, however, the factors that instigate movement toward and across a threshold remain poorly understood. Objectives: In this paper, we explore the role of species composition in initiating ecosystem state change in a temperate landscape mosaic of fire-prone and fire-sensitive vegetation systems. Methods: We construct two 12-kyr palaeocecological records from two proximal (230 m apart) sites in Tasmania, Australia, and apply the Alternative Stable States model as a framework to investigate ecosystem feedbacks and resilience threshold dynamics. Results: Our results indicate that, in this system, invasion by pyrogenic Eucalyptus species is a key factor in breaking down negative (stabilising) feedbacks that maintain pyrophobic sub-alpine rainforest. Conclusions: We conclude that the emergence of an alternative stable pyrogenic state in these relic rainforest systems depends on the extent of pyrophytic species within the system. These findings are critical for understanding resilience in forest ecosystems under future climate and land management changes and are relevant to fire-adapted cool-temperate ecosystems globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Studies have shown that land use and land cover change (LUCC) has myriad impacts on local and regional climate. Synthesizing the recent findings in this field helps advance landscape ecology and sustainability science in the face of climate change. Objectives: To review and synthesize mesoscale modeling-based studies examining the impact of LUCC on climate, and to identify research gaps and future research directions. Methods: We adopted a systematic review procedure to identify and analyze relevant literature obtained from the Web of Science spanning Jan 1990–Nov 2018. Results: The number of publications per year increased from about 5 before 2008 to as large as 25 thereafter. About 60% of the case studies were focused on China and the US. Urbanization and agricultural development exerted a stronger influence on temperature than other LUCC modifications, with temperature changes generally between 1 and 2 °C. The climate effect of forest loss and urbanization illustrated location-dependency, as similar landscape changes in different latitudes showed climate effects of opposite sign. Extensive irrigation and dam construction increased precipitation, while the impact of urbanization and forest cover change on precipitation was inconclusive (positive, neutral, and negative). Conclusions: Understanding landscape and climate change interactions is essential for studying the ecology and sustainability of regional landscapes. Future research needs to: (1) understand climate effects resulting from land management change, (2) investigate climate change impacts on human health as induced or mediated by landscape changes, and (3) develop sustainable landscapes that can mitigate and adapt to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Modifications in natural landcover generally result in a loss of habitat availability for wildlife and it's persistence will depend largely on their spatial configuration and functional connections. Argenteohyla siemersi is a threatened and endemic amphibian whose habitat is composed of forest patches near rivers and water bodies edges. Objectives: This study aimed to analyse the accessible habitat for this species and identify key elements to maintain its ecological network in two different types of land uses: an anthropized area with extensive cattle raising and a protected area. Methods: The structural and functional characteristics of both landscapes were analyzed. The connectivity at landscape level and the contribution of each habitat patch were evaluated through simulation models with different dispersion distances in the context of the graph theory. Results: In both landscapes, nine types of landcover were identified with different compositions. Remarkable differences were found in habitat connectivity for this amphibian species between both landscapes. As the percentage of dispersion distance increases, reachable habitat increases as well, although with higher percentages in the protected area. Two corridors were identified in the protected landscape and one in the rangeland one; patches and key links constituted all of them. Conclusions: The present work provides spatially explicit results with a quantitative basis. It could be useful as a tool for the development of management plans aimed at guaranteeing the functionality of the ecological network for this endangered species and, therefore, contribute to its long-term conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Urbanization is the most important form of landscape change and is increasingly affecting biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Understanding how landscape patterns change in space and time is central to the evaluation of the environmental impacts of urbanization. Objectives: This research explores the spatiotemporal patterns of land use change in the Swiss urban agglomerations of Bern, Lausanne and Zurich at two characteristic spatial extents, and compares them to prominent hypotheses of urbanization patterns. Methods: For each urban agglomeration, four temporal snapshots from 1980 to 2016 have been derived from the land use inventory of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Fractal analysis of the area–radius relationship of urban land is used to separate each agglomeration into two characteristic spatial extents according to the distance of the city center, namely the inner and outer zones. The landscape metrics and growth modes are then computed at such extents. Results: The time series of landscape metrics and growth modes reveal fairly different patterns when computed in the inner and outer zones respectively. Bern and Lausanne exhibit mostly traits of coalescence stages at the inner zone while displaying many characteristics of diffusion in the outer zone. In contrast, the trends of observed in the inner and outer zones of Zurich are both reminiscent of a coalescence stages. Conclusions: Fractal analysis can be a useful approach to detect characteristic extents of urban agglomerations at which distinct spatiotemporal patterns might be observed. Current models of urbanization patterns should incorporate the notion of characteristic extents more explicitly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Land-use change and habitat fragmentation are well known drivers of biodiversity declines. In forest birds, it has been proposed that landscape change can cause increased predation pressure that leads to population declines or community change. Predation can also have non-lethal effects on prey, such as creating 'landscapes of fear'. However, few studies have simultaneously investigated the relative contribution of regional land-use and local management to creating 'landscapes of fear'. Objectives: To quantify the relative contribution of regional land-use and local management to the 'landscape of fear' in agricultural landscapes. Methods: Bioacoustic recorders were used to quantify Eurasian Wren Troglodytes troglodytes alarm call rates in 32 naturally replicated broadleaf woodlands located in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Results: Alarm call rates (the probability of an alarm per 10 min of audio) were positively correlated with the amount of agricultural land (arable or pasture) within 500 m of a woodland (effect size of 1) and were higher when livestock were present inside a woodland (effect size of 0.78). The amount of woodland and urban land cover in the landscape also had positive but weak effects on alarm call rates. Woodlands with gamebird management had fewer alarm calls (effect size of − 0.79). Conclusions: We found that measures of both regional land-use and local management contributed to the 'landscape of fear' in agricultural landscapes. To reduce the impact of anthropogenic activities on 'fear' levels (an otherwise natural ecological process), land-managers should consider limiting livestock presence in woodlands and creating traditional 'buffer strips' (small areas of non-farmed land) at the interface between woodland edges and agricultural fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Habitat loss and fragmentation threaten species not only through structural landscape changes and resource reduction, but also through modifications to species' interactions. In particular, the observed consequences of landscape changes for predator–prey interactions often lack a clear pattern, indicating a range of complex behavioral adaptations and interactions. One potentially important contributing factor shaping these consequences is perceived predation risk and hence fear, which is rarely explicitly addressed in studies on habitat modification. Objectives: We investigated how fear changes prey community structures under habitat loss and fragmentation and identified habitat properties driving these changes. Methods: We applied a spatially-explicit, individual-based model which simulates home range formation of a mammalian prey community based on food availability and perceived predation risk. With the model we predicted prey community structures under different landscape scenarios. Results: Fear intensified the negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on prey communities, causing a non-proportional diversity loss of up to 30%. Shifts in community composition from large to small animals were reinforced. The highest prey diversity was supported in landscapes with non-fragmented safe areas. Our findings highlight the importance of fear in shaping prey community structures under conditions of landscape change. Conclusions: Our modelling approach addresses the mechanisms that link individual space use with community structure. It reveals the key role played by the spatial distribution of safe patches in mitigating the negative effects of landscape changes. Thereby, it supports modern conservation efforts that go beyond single-species approaches by taking changes in community structure into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Non-human primates are among the most threatened mammals on Earth. Although some species, such as howler monkeys, are thought to be resistant to initial phases of habitat disturbance, the lack of longitudinal studies prevents determining if this holds over time. Objectives: We assessed temporal changes in landscape structure in the Lacandona rainforest, Mexico, and how these changes relate to population trends of black howler monkeys (Alouatta pigra). Methods: We surveyed primates in 22 forest sites in 2011 and 2017, and related temporal changes in primate abundance and immature-to-female ratio with changes in the spatial structure of local landscapes (forest cover, matrix openness, number of forest patches, and forest edge density) using a multi-scale approach. Results: Landscape changes occurring over a 6-year period were strongly associated with temporal changes in population parameters. Primate abundance increased as forest cover increased. Both primate abundance and immature-to-female ratio increased in sites located in landscapes where the number of patches increased over time, but where the proportion of open matrix decreased. Edge density showed a negative effect on immature-to-female ratio. Conclusions: This endangered primate might not be as tolerant to landscape disturbance as generally thought. Allowing forest patches to increase in number and/or size through active or passive restoration (reverse fragmentation), and preventing forest loss and an increase in matrix openness are key management strategies to preserve howler monkeys in this biodiversity hotspot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Human exploitation of landscapes result in widespread species range loss and spatial community redistribution. Reduced species occupancy for large ranging terrestrial carnivore communities in disturbed or fragmented landscapes is a common outcome but the underlying mechanisms are ambiguous and the complexity of interacting mechanisms often under-appreciated. Objectives: To examine for similarity in spatial responses of carnivores to human-mediated landscape disturbance, we hypothesize common mechanism(s) to manifest at the community-level. To then incorporate a competitive surface, we evaluate the relative role interspecific interactions may play, where some species are benefited by altered habitat conditions. Methods: We deployed camera-trap arrays across a systematic grid-based study design to quantify carnivore occurrence. We tested hypotheses to understand spatial patterns of carnivore occurrence, in relation to biophysical and anthropogenic landscape factors, using multivariate analysis and species distribution models under an information-theoretic approach. Results: Differential response was found within the carnivore community, with some species occurring more frequently in disturbed landscapes while others displayed landscape scale avoidance of more highly disturbed areas. Interspecific interactions played an additive role to human-mediated response by some carnivores—suggesting generalist, human-adapted species, exaggerate interference interactions for other more sensitive species. Conclusions: Generalizable patterns are highly sought as clues to consistent mechanisms effecting changes to spatial distributions, but evidence weighs heavily in favour of species-specificity in responses implicating mechanisms that likewise vary for each species. Our findings underscore the value of a trait-based and community-level approach to understanding and managing the effects of anthropogenic land-use change on vertebrate biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Predicting habitat use patterns is a key issue in the management of large herbivore populations. Particularly, indicators providing a model of the spatial distribution of a population in a simple way, without the necessity of laborious field research, are still being sought. Analysis of historical landscape changes can be one of such predictive tools. Objectives: We tested the hypothesis that historical changes in land use can be used as an effective factor enabling prediction of spatial distribution. As a case study, data on habitat preferences of European bison Bison bonasus (wisents) were used. Methods: Spatial distribution of 17302 records of the presence of wisents, collected over the period of 10 years, was compared using contemporary and historical habitat maps for the Bieszczady Mts. (Poland). The area of approx. 87 thousand ha was selected, where the density of human population decreased over four times, and the percentage of forests increased from over 30% to almost 80% due to land abandonment. Results: Wisents were recorded significantly more frequently in parts of the forest that in the past were used for agriculture. We found that identification of parts of the forest overgrowing former cultivated fields makes it possible to predict the spatial distribution of wisent herds with very high probability. Conclusions: Information on historical changes in land use can be used as a simple and effective factor enabling prediction of habitat selection by wisents. Such an approach can potentially be useful for similar assessments of other large wild herbivores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Understanding how the Northern Forest landscape has changed and is likely to change, both in terms of forest extent and forest configuration, has important implications for management. Objectives: We examined historical changes in forest pattern and extent to: (1) characterize recent forest cover change and potential drivers of that change, (2) identify areas vulnerable to future forest loss, (3) assess the impact of such loss on forest fragmentation, and (4) examine correlations between projected forest loss and socioeconomic variables to help inform future planning. Methods: We developed a cellular automata model to simulate changes in forest land cover in the Northern Forest region from 2015 to 2075. The model was parameterized from observed historical trends (1985 to 2015) and correlating spatial variables using Bayesian Weights of Evidence. Using our model outputs, we identified areas most vulnerable to change, and impacts of these changes on forest fragmentation. Results: Though we find an overall trend of decreasing forest area across the region, rates of change vary spatially and temporally, with an overall increase in forest cover between 2000 and 2015. Areas most attractive for development (e.g. high population density, low slope and elevation) were most likely to experience deforestation. Forest fragmentation increased during observed and simulated time steps, even during an observed period of net forest regeneration. Conclusions: Forest loss and fragmentation due to development represent a formidable threat to the Northern Forest. Historical trends indicate that simply increasing forest extent is not sufficient to restore forest connectivity in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Our ability to understand the implications of prescriptions for landscape change (i.e., conservation actions) is constrained by the scopes of spatial pattern indices employed to describe landscapes. Most indices are suited for use with a single species or habitat, but the consequences of conservation actions are inherently multispecies. Hence, indices that incorporate information for multiple species are desirable. Objectives: I describe a conceptual model for multispecies spatial pattern indices that incorporates species-specific habitat definitions and scales of landscape effects. I explore its utility for conservation planning and present insights and suggestions for its application. Methods: The conceptual model employs habitat maps and estimates of species' scales of effect for habitat amount within landscapes surrounding sites. I present three indices rooted in the model: cumulative habitat amount, fragmented species count (FSC), and fragmented species-habitat count (FSHC). Comparisons of FSC and FSHC values at individual sites can reveal areas of high importance for protection as well as a measure of conservation design problem complexity. I demonstrate application of the indices for 40 species within a study area in the northwestern U.S. Results: The indices provided a visualization of spatial patterns in multispecies habitat fragmentation across the study region, revealing areas with relatively high levels of habitat fragmentation and sites where habitat configuration is of high importance for the species analyzed. Conclusions: The conceptual model provides descriptions of landscapes that can provide important context for conservation actions. Implementation may warrant further development, exploration of sensitivities, or case-specific refinements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Landscape patterns have been measured as a fundamental part of landscape ecology, especially with increasing computational power and availability of landcover data. Among the challenges associated with landscape measurement is identifying the appropriate scale of application, both temporal and spatial. Measurement of landscape patterns in highly-dynamic landscapes is especially challenged by temporal scale selection. Objectives: This short communication focuses on how landscape pattern measurements vary in response to normal variability in a highly-dynamic landscape Methods: For a small agricultural landscape with known crop rotation dynamism sequences, a simulation model provided 30 years of crop rotations. These 30 different landscapes were measured with landscape pattern measurements and the variability of the measurements was assessed. Results: Almost half of the measurement values were outliers, and 12 of the 30 years had at least one outlier landscape pattern measurement value, even though the basis of landscape change was a normative agricultural practice. For a consistent but dynamic landscape, some landscape measurements or simulation years had high variability, demonstrating that inferences from highly-dynamic landscapes need to be based on fine-resolution time steps. Conclusions: The application of landscape pattern measurements continues to be a common method in landscape ecology, and temporal dimensions are key to detecting change and what might be causing or responding to that change. The temporal resolution of change implies that highly-dynamic landscapes require more-frequent sampling, and that comparisons for agricultural landscapes over long time periods requires more than a single temporal endpoint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Two approaches to study landscape change have been exploited: one that tries to study the developments that have happened in the past, and another that tries to foresee future. Objectives: We analyse how this dual approach can help understanding landscape change, how people relate to it in general, what their expectations and preferences are. We also discuss the usefulness of path dependency theory, cultural sustainability, and cultural ecosystem services approaches in understanding the management of a historical cultural landscape. Methods: First, we revisit a 1999 scenario study that outlined the possible trajectories of change prior Estonian accession to the European Union in 2004. Then, through series of studies we track the wider context of the landscape changes, analysing the results from the interviews and combining those with the visible results. We seek to answer whether or not the landscape changes that occurred followed any of the past scenarios, and if people's preferences changed. Results: The dynamics of realisation of different scenarios was not straightforward. However, people showed clear preference towards landscapes that carried signs of the continuation of rural life. What was not foreseen when designing the scenarios was the upsurge of local identity creating the links with the past. Conclusions: In this Estonian traditional cultural landscape, stewardship, culture and cultural ecosystem services, or nature's contribution to people as IPBES prefers to call this now, define what caring for the landscape involves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: While remote sensing imagery is effective for quantifying land cover changes across large areas, its utility for directly assessing the response of animals to disturbance is limited. Soundscapes approaches—the recording and analysis of sounds in a landscape—could address this shortcoming.Objectives: In 2011, a massive wildfire named “the Horseshoe 2 Burn” occurred in the Chiricahua National Monument, Arizona, USA. We evaluated the impact of this wildfire on acoustic activity of animal communities.Methods: In 2013, soundscape recordings were collected over 9 months in 12 burned and 12 non-burned sites in four ecological systems. The seasonal and diel biological acoustic activity were described using the “Bioacoustic Index”, a detailed aural analysis of sound sources, and a new tool called “Sonic Timelapse Builder” (STLB).Results: Seasonal biophony phenology showed a diurnal peak in June and a nocturnal peak in October in all ecological systems. On June mornings, acoustic activity was lower at burned than at non-burned sites in three of four ecological systems, due to a decreased abundance of cicadas directly impacted by the death of trees. Aural analyses revealed that 55% of recordings from non-burned sites contained insect sounds compared to 18% from burned sites. On October nights, orthopteran activity was more prevalent at some burned sites, possibly due to post-fire emergence of herbaceous.Conclusions: Soundscape approaches can help address long-term conservation issues involving the responses of animal communities to wildfire. Acoustic methods can serve as a valuable complement to remote sensing for disturbance-based landscape management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Management of wintering waterfowl in North America requires adaptability because constant landscape and environmental change challenges existing management strategies regarding waterfowl habitat use at large spatial scales. Migratory waterfowl including mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) use the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) for wintering habitat, making this an important area of emphasis for improving wetland conservation strategies, while enhancing the understanding of landscape-use patterns.Objectives: We used aerial survey data collected in the Arkansas portion of the MAV (ARMAV) to explain the abundance and distribution of mallards in relation to variable landscape conditions.Methods: We used two-stage, hierarchical spatio-temporal models with a random spatial effect to identify covariates related to changes in mallard abundance and distribution within and among years.Results: We found distinct spatio-temporal patterns existed for mallard distributions across the ARMAV and these distributions are dependent on the surrounding landscape structure and changing environmental conditions. Models performing best indicated seasonal surface water extent, rice field, wetland and fallow (uncultivated) fields positively influenced mallard presence. Rice fields, surface water and weather were found to influence mallard abundance. Additionally, the results suggest weather and changing surface water affects mallard presence and abundance throughout the winter.Conclusions: Using novel datasets to identify which environmental factors drive changes in regional wildlife distribution and abundance can improve management by providing managers additional information to manage land over landscapes spanning private and public lands. We suggest our analytical approach may be informative in other areas and for other wildlife species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Landscape changes can be an important modifier of disease. Habitat fragmentation commonly results in reduced connectivity in host populations and increased use of the remaining habitat. For environmentally transmitted parasites, this presents a possible trade-off between transmission potential at the local and global level.Objectives: We quantify the effects of fragmentation on the transmission of an environmentally transmitted parasite, teasing apart the relative effects of habitat composition and configuration on both host movement behaviour and subsequent infection patterns.Methods: We use a spatially-explicit epidemiological model to simulate the effects of habitat fragmentation, using, as an example, whipworm (Trichuris sp.) within a red colobus monkey population (Procolobus rufomitratus).Results: We found that habitat fragmentation did not always lead to a trade-off between population connectivity and concentration of habitat use in host movement behaviour or in final population infection patterns. However, our simulation results suggest the spatial configuration of the remaining habitat became increasingly influential on behavioural and infection outcomes as habitat was removed. Additionally, we found common fragmentation metrics provided little ability to explain variation in propagation of infections.Conclusions: Our results suggest an interaction between habitat configuration and composition should be considered when assessing disease related impacts of habitat fragmentation on environmentally transmitted parasites, especially in cases where habitat loss is high (≥ 30%). We also propose that spatially-explicit simulations that capture a host’s response to fragmentation could aid in the development of novel landscape metrics targeted towards specific host-parasite-landscape systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: In response to predominantly local and private approaches to landscape change, landscape ecologists should critically assess the multiscalar influences on landscape design.Objectives: This study develops a governance framework for Nassauer and Opdam’s “Design-in-Science” model. Its objective is to create an approach for examining hierarchical constraints on landscape design in order to investigate linkages among urban greening initiatives, patterns of landscape change, and the broader societal values driving those changes. It aims to provide an integrative and actionable approach for landscape sustainability science.Methods: This framework is examined through an ethnographic study of public policy processes surrounding the urban tree initiatives in Boston, MA; Philadelphia, PA; and Baltimore, MD.Results: These initiatives demonstrate the impact of political and economic decentralization on urban landscape patterns. Their collaborative governance approach incorporates diverse resources to implement programming at a fine-scale. The predominant tree giveaway program fragments the urban and regional forest.Conclusion: Spatial and temporal fragmentation undermines the long-term security of urban greening programs, and it suggests reconsideration of the role of state regimes in driving broad scale spatial planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Forest loss and fragmentation negatively affect biodiversity. However, disturbances in forest canopy resulting from repeated deforestation and reforestation are also likely important drivers of biodiversity, but are overlooked when forest cover change is assessed using a single time interval. Objectives: We investigated two questions at the nexus of plant diversity and forest cover change dynamics: (1) Do multitemporal forest cover change trajectories explain patterns of plant diversity better than a simple measure of overall forest change? (2) Are specific types of forest cover change trajectories associated with significantly higher or lower levels of diversity? Methods: We sampled plant biodiversity in forests spanning the Charlotte, NC, region. We derived forest cover change trajectories occurring within nested spatial extents per sample site using a time series of aerial photos from 1938 to 2009, then classified trajectories by spatio-temporal patterns of change. While accounting for landscape and environmental covariates, we assessed the effects of the trajectory classes as compared to net forest cover change on native plant diversity. Results: Our results indicated that forest stand diversity is best explained by forest change trajectories, while the herb layer is better explained by net forest cover change. Three distinct forest change trajectory classes were found to influence the forest stand and herb layer. Conclusions: The influence of forest dynamics on biodiversity can be overlooked in analyses that use only net forest cover change. Our results illustrate the utility of assessing how specific trajectories of past land cover change influence biodiversity patterns in the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The forests of Borneo have among the highest biodiversity and also the highest forest loss rates on the planet. Objectives: Our objectives were to: (1) compare multiple modelling approaches, (2) evaluate the utility of landscape composition and configuration as predictors, (3) assess the influence of the ratio of forest loss and persistence points in the training sample, (4) identify the multiple-scale drivers of recent forest loss and (5) predict future forest loss risk across Borneo. Methods: We compared random forest machine learning and logistic regression in a multi-scale approach to model forest loss risk between 2000 and 2010 as a function of topographical variables and landscape structure, and applied the highest performing model to predict the spatial pattern of forest loss risk between 2010 and 2020. We utilized a naïve model as a null comparison and used the total operating characteristic AUC to assess model performance. Results: Our analysis produced five main results. We found that: (1) random forest consistently outperformed logistic regression and the naïve model; (2) including landscape structure variables substantially improved predictions; (3) a ratio of occurrence to non-occurrence points in the training dataset that does not match the actual ratio in the landscape biases the predictions of both random forest and logistic regression; (4) forest loss risk differed between the three nations that comprise Borneo, with patterns in Kalimantan highly related to distance from the edge of the previous frontier of forest loss, while Malaysian Borneo showed a more diffuse pattern related to the structure of the landscape; (5) we predicted continuing very high rates of forest loss in the 2010-2020 period, and produced maps of the expected risk of forest loss across the full extent of Borneo. Conclusions: These results confirm that multiple-scale modelling using landscape metrics as predictors in a random forest modelling framework is a powerful approach to landscape change modelling. There is immense immanent risk to Borneo's forests, with clear spatial patterns of risk related to topography and landscape structure that differ between the three nations that comprise Borneo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: A challenging issue in landscape ecology is the evaluation of changes in a forest landscape following a disturbance. This evaluation usually entails examining changes in the forest inventory, which represents the best information available for a given forest region. Objectives: Our aim was to extend existing methods used to evaluate forest inventory to include additional variables, such as value-based forest product options, wood fibre attributes, and ecosystem services. Inclusion of such variables in forest inventory evaluations would allow research results to be presented from an economic perspective, which is often required for policy development and forest management decision-making. Methods: We developed a value-based framework to evaluate forest inventory and implemented it in the wood fibre value simulation model. We then used a local data set from Manitoba, Canada, to show how the model can be applied to the mapping of new inventory layers to facilitate the evaluation of landscape changes. Results: Five new inventory layers are mapped including bioenergy and heating value that can be directly used for evaluating landscape changes, and wood density, fibre length, and pulp yield, which can be combined with total wood volume to derive new variables or indices to express changes in landscape conditions. Conclusions: Our model can contribute to the assessment of landscape changes by indicating the values a forest can have when it is used for different conservation or utilization purposes. The model can also support improved decision-making with respect to the management of forest resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Objectives: Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota. Methods: Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns ('EcoGoods'), maximizing carbon storage ('EcoServices'), and climate change adaption ('CCAdapt'). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years. Results: Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Expansion of urban settlements has caused observed declines in ecosystem services (ES) globally, further stressing the need for informed urban development and policies. Incorporating ES concepts into the decision making process has been shown to support resilient and functional ecosystems. Coupling land change and ES models allows for insights into the impacts and anticipated trade-offs of specific policy decisions. The spatial configuration of urbanization likely influences the delivery and production of ES. Objective: When considering multiple ES simultaneously, improving the production of one ecosystem service often results in the decrease in the provision of other ES, giving rise to trade-offs. We examine the impact of three urban growth scenarios on several ES to determine the degree to which spatial configuration of urbanization and the development of natural land cover impacts these services over 25 years. Methods: We couple land change and ES models to examine impacts to carbon sequestration, surface water-run off, nitrogen and phosphorus export, organic farming and camping site suitability, to determine trade-offs among the six ES associated with each spatial configuration for western North Carolina. Results: Consequences of urban configurations are dramatic, with degraded ES across all scenarios and substantial variation depending on urban pattern, revealing trade-offs. Counter-intuitive trade-offs between carbon sequestration and lands available for organic farming and camping were observed, suggesting that no configurations result in mutual benefits for all ES. Conclusions: By understanding trade-offs associated with urban configurations, decision makers can identify ES critical to an area and promote configurations that enhance those. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Habitat loss and fragmentation are among the major drivers of population declines and extinction, particularly in large carnivores. Connectivity models provide practical tools for assessing fragmentation effects and developing mitigation or conservation responses. To be useful to conservation practitioners, connectivity models need to incorporate multiple scales and include realistic scenarios based on potential changes to habitat and anthropogenic pressures. This will help to prioritize conservation efforts in a changing landscape. Objectives: The goal of our paper was to evaluate differences in population connectivity for lions ( Panthera leo) across the Kavango-Zambezi Trans-frontier Conservation Area (KAZA) under different landscape change scenarios and a range of dispersal distances. Methods: We used an empirically optimized resistance surface, based on analysis of movement pathways of dispersing lions in southern Africa to calculate resistant kernel connectivity. We assessed changes in connectivity across nine landscape change scenarios, under each of which we explored the behavior of lions with eight different dispersal abilities. Results: Our results demonstrate that reductions in the extent of the protected area network and/or fencing protected areas will result in large declines in the extent of population connectivity, across all modeled dispersal abilities. Creation of corridors or erection of fences strategically placed to funnel dispersers between protected areas increased overall connectivity of the population. Conclusions: Our results strongly suggest that the most effective means of maintaining long-term population connectivity of lions in the KAZA region involves retaining the current protected area network, augmented with protected corridors or strategic fencing to direct dispersing individuals towards suitable habitat and away from potential conflict areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Loss of natural habitat can isolate pollinator populations and negatively affect sexual reproduction of animal-pollinated plants. Objective: We evaluated how the loss of natural forest affects pollinator diversity in the understory of the Atlantic Rainforest in Northeastern Brazil. Methods: We focused on bees, the main group of pollinators for angiosperms. We assessed how changes in forest cover at regional (36 km) and local (0.36 km) scales affect bee richness and abundance. Results: We sampled 492 bees from 59 species, of which 58 % were above ground nesting species and 73 % exhibited some level of sociality. Our results show that the loss of forest had negative effects on understory bee abundance, which was particularly accentuated for species that nest above ground. However, for social bees the effect of changes in forest cover at a local scale depended on regional forest cover, negative effects being only detected when landscapes had at least 35 % of forest. For bee richness, the null model was among the best models bringing considerable uncertainty about landscape effects on bee richness. Conclusions: These findings suggest that management strategies and conservation practices must integrate proper actions that consider both local and regional scales. For existing fragmented landscapes, it is important to increase forest availability at the regional scale, while also maintaining high environmental heterogeneity at the local scale. We believe that with proper landscape planning this multiscalar approach can be not only more effective, but also easier to implement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Landscapes are being transformed globally by human land use. Given the rate such changes are occurring, it is unclear how quickly species might need to adapt, whether genetically or behaviorally, especially in migratory songbirds that have declined in recent decades as a result of habitat loss and fragmentation. Objective: My objective was to determine via simulation modeling the rate at which a generic migratory songbird might need to mount an adaptive response to keep pace with current rates of habitat loss and fragmentation. Methods: Using a spatially-structured avian demographic model, I simulated an adaptive response to landscape change by reducing the degree of edge sensitivity in a fraction of the population each generation; songbirds are known to have lower success in habitat fragments owing to higher nest predation and brood parasitism rates. By adjusting the rate of this response, I determined how quickly populations would need to adapt to track the rate of landscape change and offset population declines. Results: Adaptive responses had the greatest effect when initiated quickly, within 3-5 generations, especially in landscapes undergoing extensive habitat fragmentation. Paradoxically, the rate of adaptive response had the greatest effect in landscapes undergoing more gradual rates of habitat loss (0.5-1 %/year) because populations were actually able to track these rates of landscape change demographically. Conclusions: Given these results, it seems unlikely that songbirds can evolve genetic responses quickly enough to offset current rates of landscape change, leaving behavioral adaptation (phenotypic plasticity) a more likely mechanism for responding to rapid landscape change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]