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Rockfalls are a recurrent cause of disruption for transportation corridors running along the bottom of U-shaped alpine valleys. In some scenarios, risk may effectively be reduced only by implementing an early-warning system able to give notice of incipient failures on the slope. This paper describes a successful example of rockfall forecasting and risk management in proximity of the Gallivaggio sanctuary (San Giacomo Valley, Central Italian Alps). Since 2016, a Ground-Based Synthetic Aperture Radar continuously monitored a roughly 500-m high, sub-vertical granitic slope. Monitoring data evidenced the presence and continued movement of a ~ 5000 m3 highly unstable mass, having a projected fall trajectory directly threatening the sanctuary and the adjacent segment of a national road. Traffic and access to the sanctuary were regulated by a sequence of alert thresholds, and restrictive orders were issued according to the activity of the instability. The rock mass eventually fell, and the failure-time was accurately predicted several hours in advance. Despite damage to both the road and buildings, the timely evacuation of the area prevented any loss of life. The case study provides a reference framework to better manage rockfall risk in areas where the installation of adequate protective barriers is not technically feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Susceptibility of intrusion-related landslides in an active volcano was evaluated coupling the landslide susceptibility estimation by random forest (RF), and the probabilistic volcanic vent opening distribution, as proxy for magma injection, using the QVAST tool. In order to develop and test the method proposed here, the RF/QVAST approach was adopted for Stromboli volcano (Southern Italy) since it experienced moderate to huge instability events, it is geomorphologically prone to instability events, and it is affected by active intense volcanic activity that can produce slope instability. The main destabilizing factors of the volcanic flanks are the slope, the aspect, the terrain roughness, the land cover and the litho-technical features of the outcropping rocks. Estimation of volcanic susceptibility shows that the areas with high probability of new vent opening are located in the north-western unstable volcano flank (Sciara del Fuoco), in the volcano summit and the north-eastern volcano flank coherent with the possible re-activation of the eruptive fissures related to the regional tectonic setting. The areas with higher probability of intrusion-related landslides are located in the upper part of the Sciara del Fuoco, while the rest of the island show moderate to low probability of intrusion-related landslide occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

■■■The paper “Discussion to: Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli” by Bozzano et al. brings forward new considerations on an issue of extreme concern in landslide risk management. To this day, the ability to predict catastrophic landslide failures from slope surface displacements is a problem dictated more by practical constraints rather than by theoretical uncertainties. In this sense, the development of data interpretation practices is crucial. This short reply provides a few further insights with regard to this subject, also in the context of the recently published literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]