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Landslide disasters are associated with severe losses on the Loess Plateau of China. Although early warning systems and susceptibility mapping have mitigated this issue to some extent, most methods are qualitative or semi-quantitative in the site-specific range. In this paper, a quantitative spatial distribution model is presented for site-specific loess landslide hazard assessment. Coupled with multi-temporal remote sensing images and high-precision UAV cloud point data, a total of 98 loess landslides that have occurred since 2004 on the Heifangtai terrace were collected to establish a landslide volume-date and retreating distance database. Eleven loess landslides are selected to construct a numerical model for parameter back analysis, and the accuracy of the simulation results is quantitatively evaluated by the centroid distance and overlapping area. Different volumes and receding distance rates of landslides are fitted to determine the relationship between cracks and potential volume, and different volumes and parameters are combined to simulate the spatial distribution of potential loess landslides. The results of this study reveal that landslide volumes mainly range between 1 × 103 and 5 × 105 m3, and the historical occurrence probability reaches 0.551. The optimal parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method to obtain a uniform distribution parameter value probability model, and the results show that the error of the estimated length within a range of 0.05 from the optimal parameter does not exceed 15%. In the selected slope slide case, farmland near the toe of the slope primarily includes exposed hazards with probabilities greater than 0.7. This work provides a useful reference for local disaster reduction and a theoretical methodology for hazard assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Successive major landslides during October and November 2018 in Baige village, eastern Tibet, dammed the Jinsha River on two occasions, and the subsequent dam breaches instigated a multi-hazard chain that flooded many towns downstream. Analysis of high-resolution aerial images and field investigations unveiled three potentially unstable rock mass clusters in the source area of the landslides, suggesting possible future failures with potential for river-damming and flooding. In order to evaluate and understand the disaster chain effect linked to the potentially unstable rock mass, we systematically studied the multi-hazard scenarios through an integrated numerical modelling approach. Our model begins with an evaluation of the probability of landslide failure, including runout and river damming, and then addresses the dam breach and resultant flood—hence simulating and visualising an entire disaster chain. The model parameters were calibrated using empirical data from the two Baige landslides. Then, we predict the future cascading hazards via seven scenarios according to all possible combinations of potential rock mass failure. For each scenario, the landslide runouts, dam-breaching, and flooding are numerically simulated with full consideration of uncertainties among the model input parameters. The maximum dam breach flood extent, depth, velocity, and peak arrival time are predicted at sequential sites downstream. As a first attempt to simulate the full spectrum of a landslide-induced multi-hazard chain, our study provides insights and substantiates the value provided by multi-hazard modelling. The integrated approach described here can be applied to similar landslide-induced chains of hazards in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-locality landslides primarily occur in the upper zone of the failed slope, in which the slip surface is considerably higher than the foot of the slope. This paper discusses a high-locality landslide that occurred on August 8, 2017, on the left bank of Zagunao River in Tonghua Town, southwest China. The landslide, called the Tonghua landslide, originated on a 716-m-high hillslope, which was formed by preexisting glacial deposits. The main body of the landslide is currently suspended on hillslope, with a relative relief of 353 m and is undergoing progressive failure. The town of Tonghua is located downslope of this landslide, and hence, the landslide could cause severe damage, including casualties and the destruction of infrastructure. Very few mitigation measures have been implemented to reduce the potentially devastating consequences due to the high locality and continuous movement of the landslide. We conducted comprehensive studies including field investigations, aerial photographic interpretations, pluviometric regime analysis, and superficial displacement monitoring to understand the failure mechanism and evolutionary process of this ongoing landslide. Considering that a Ms 7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou, approximately 220 km northeast of Tonghua Town, on the same day as the landslide, and that sporadic but persistent rainfall occurred before slope failure, we believe that both the rainfall and the earthquake were potential triggers for this landslide. However, further studies are necessary to better understand the characteristics and to develop hazard mitigation strategies for this type of landslide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since lots of underground and slope excavation works were conducted during the urbanization process, an increasing number of sites in ravines around a city have been used to stockpile a large amount of excavated soils. This brings a huge challenge for researchers and managers in the risk evaluation and mitigation of potential dangers of these man-made construction waste landfills. This paper describes a recently large landslide of the construction waste landfill, which occurred at a site of Guangming new district in Shenzhen, China, on December 20, 2015. This catastrophic landslide caused the death of 69 persons and 8 persons are still missing. In this paper, this landslide was numerically simulated and analyzed. In spite of neither high-intensity rainfall nor antecedent rainfall, a slope of this landfill with a relative height of 111 m sided and caused about 2.34 million cubic meters of the soils to travel over a gentle terrain more than 1.2 km. This means that the landslide mobility index (H/L = 0.092) is much lower than a general designed value and the values in most other cases. A depth-integrated continuum method and a MacCormack-TVD finite difference algorithm are adopted, in this paper, to numerically simulate the dynamic process of this large landslide. It is found that a Coulomb friction model with consideration of the pore water pressure effects can well reproduce the main characteristics of the dynamic process of this landslide. Sensitivity analysis has demonstrated that the high pore water pressure in the soils plays a significant role in its mobility and is a key factor to the severity of this landslide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]