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Intra-tumor heterogeneity portends poor outcome in many cancers. In AML, a higher number of drivers worsens prognosis. The Shannon Index is a robust metric of clonal heterogeneity that accounts for the number of clones, but also their relative abundance. We show that a Shannon Index can be estimated from bulk sequencing, which is correlated (ρ = 0.76) with clonal diversity from single-colony genotyping. In a discovery cohort of 292 patients with sequencing of 43 genes, a higher number of drivers (HR = 1.18, P = 0.028) and a lower Shannon Index (HR = 0.68, P = 0.048), the latter reflecting clonal dominance, are independently associated with worse OS independently of European LeukemiaNet 2017 risk. These findings are validated in an independent cohort of 1184 patients with 111-gene sequencing (number of drivers HR = 1.16, P = 1 × 10−5, Shannon Index HR = 0.81, P = 0.007). By re-interrogating paired diagnosis/relapse exomes from 50 cytogenetically normal AMLs, we find clonal dominance at diagnosis to be correlated with the gain of a significantly higher number of mutations at relapse (P = 6 × 10−6), hence with clonal sweeping. Our results suggest that clonal dominance at diagnosis is associated with the presence of a leukemic phenotype allowing rapid expansion of new clones and driving relapse after chemotherapy.

Intra-tumor heterogeneity portends poor outcome in many cancers. In AML, a higher number of drivers worsens prognosis. The Shannon Index is a robust metric of clonal heterogeneity that accounts for the number of clones, but also their relative abundance. We show that a Shannon Index can be estimated from bulk sequencing, which is correlated (ρ = 0.76) with clonal diversity from single-colony genotyping. In a discovery cohort of 292 patients with sequencing of 43 genes, a higher number of drivers (HR = 1.18, P = 0.028) and a lower Shannon Index (HR = 0.68, P = 0.048), the latter reflecting clonal dominance, are independently associated with worse OS independently of European LeukemiaNet 2017 risk. These findings are validated in an independent cohort of 1184 patients with 111-gene sequencing (number of drivers HR = 1.16, P = 1 × 10

Recent advances in genomic technologies have revolutionized acute myeloid leukemia (AML) understanding by identifying potential novel actionable genomic alterations. Consequently, current risk stratification at diagnosis not only relies on cytogenetics, but also on the inclusion of several of these abnormalities. Despite this progress, AML remains a heterogeneous and complex malignancy with variable response to current therapy. Although copy-number alterations (CNAs) are accepted prognostic markers in cancers, large-scale genomic studies aiming at identifying specific prognostic CNA-based markers in AML are still lacking. Using 367 AML, we identified four recurrent CNA on chromosomes 11 and 21 that predicted outcome even after adjusting for standard prognostic risk factors and potentially delineated two new subclasses of AML with poor prognosis. ERG amplification, the most frequent CNA, was related to cytarabine resistance, a cornerstone drug of AML therapy. These findings were further validated in The Cancer Genome Atlas data. Our results demonstrate that specific CNA are of independent prognostic relevance, and provide new molecular information into the genomic basis of AML and cytarabine response. Finally, these CNA identified two potential novel risk groups of AML, which when confirmed prospectively, may improve the clinical risk stratification and potentially the AML outcome.