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Background Malaria re-introduction is a challenge in elimination settings. To prevent re-introduction, receptivity, vulnerability, and health system capacity of foci should be monitored using appropriate tools. This study aimed to design an applicable model to monitor predicting factors of re-introduction of malaria in highly prone areas. Methods This exploratory, descriptive study was conducted in a pre-elimination setting with a high-risk of malaria transmission re-introduction. By using nominal group technique and literature review, a list of predicting indicators for malaria re-introduction and outbreak was defined. Accordingly, a checklist was developed and completed in the field for foci affected by re-introduction and for cleared-up foci as a control group, for a period of 12 weeks before re-introduction and for the same period in the previous year. Using field data and analytic hierarchical process (AHP), each variable and its sub-categories were weighted, and by calculating geometric means for each sub-category, score of corresponding cells of interaction matrices, lower and upper threshold of different risks strata, including low and mild risk of re-introduction and moderate and high risk of malaria outbreaks, were determined. The developed predictive model was calibrated through resampling with different sets of explanatory variables using R software. Sensitivity and specificity of the model were calculated based on new samples. Results Twenty explanatory predictive variables of malaria re-introduction were identified and a predictive model was developed. Unpermitted immigrants from endemic neighbouring countries were determined as a pivotal factor (AHP score: 0.181). Moreover, quality of population movement (0.114), following malaria transmission season (0.088), average daily minimum temperature in the previous 8 weeks (0.062), an outdoor resting shelter for vectors (0.045), and rainfall (0.042) were determined. Positive and negative predictive values of the model were 81.8 and 100 %, respectively. Conclusions This study introduced a new, simple, yet reliable model to forecast malaria re-introduction and outbreaks eight weeks in advance in pre-elimination and elimination settings. The model incorporates comprehensive deterministic factors that can easily be measured in the field, thereby facilitating preventive measures. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1192-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Appropriate supervision, along with availability of an effective system for monitoring and evaluation, is a crucial requirement to guarantee sufficient coverage and quality of malaria vector control procedures. This study evaluated the efficacy of self-assessment practice as a possible innovative method towards achieving high coverage and excellent quality of larviciding operation in Iran. Methods The research was conducted on the randomly selected rural health centre of Kanmbel Soliman with 10 staff and 30 villages, in three main steps: (i) assessment of effectiveness of larviciding operations in the study areas before intervention through external assessment by a research team; (ii) self-assessment of larviciding operations (intervention) by staff every quarter for three rounds; and, (iii) determining the effectiveness of applying self-assessment of larviciding operations in the study areas. Two toolkits were used for self-assessment and external evaluation. The impact of self-assessment of larviciding operations was measured by two indicators: percentage of missed breeding habitats and cleaned breeding habitats among randomly selected breeding sites. Moreover, the correlation coefficients were measured between self-assessment measures and scores from external evaluation. The correlation coefficient and Mann Whitney test were used to analyse data. Results Following the utilization of self-assessment, the percentage of missed breeding habitats decreased significantly from 14.23% to 1.91% (P Before intervention, the results of self-assessment practice were compatible with external evaluation in 76.3% of 139 reviewed reports of self-assessment. After intervention, the findings of self-assessment and external evaluation were similar in the vast majority of reviewed reports (95%). Conclusion The self-assessment tool seems to be valid and reliable in improving effectiveness of larviciding operations. Furthermore, the result of self-assessment is more compatible with external evaluation results if it would be applied frequently. Therefore, it can be used as an alternative assessment technique in the evaluation of larviciding operations in addition to traditional assessment methods.

Background Malaria elimination is one of the important health priorities for the government of the I.R. of Iran. In 2010, the National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination was ratified by the High Council for Health and the Governor Generals of three malarious provinces (i.e. Sistan & Balouchestan, Hormozgan and Kerman) were assigned as the core persons for leading the program, dealing with potential challenges, administrative arrangements and financial support. The number of malaria reported cases were 11,000.