Search

The COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing, even if the emergency is over, and we now have enough data to analyze the outbreak over a long timeline. There is evidence that the outbreak alternates periods of high and low infections. Retrospectively, this can help in understanding the nature of an appropriate mathematical model for this dramatic infection. The periodic behavior may be the consequence of time-dependent coefficients related to seasonal effects and specific political actions, or an intrinsic feature of the model. The present paper relies on the assumption that the periodic spikes are an intrinsic feature of the disease, and, as such, it should be properly reflected in the mathematical model. Based on the concept of waning immunity proposed for other pathologies, we introduce a new model with (i) a compartment for weakly immune people subject to immunity booster, represented by a non-linear term; (ii) discrimination between individuals infected/vaccinated for the first time, and individuals already infected/vaccinated, undergoing to new infections/doses. We analyze some preliminary properties of our model, called SIRW2, and provide a proof-of-concept that it is capable of reproducing qualitatively the long-term oscillatory behavior of COVID-19 infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the author proposes a new SEIRS model that generalizes several classical deterministic epidemic models (e.g., SIR and SIS and SEIR and SEIRS) involving the relationships between the susceptible S, exposed E, infected I, and recovered R individuals for understanding the proliferation of infectious diseases. As a way to incorporate the most important features of the previous models under the assumption of homogeneous mixing (mass-action principle) of the individuals in the population N, the SEIRS model utilizes vital dynamics with unequal birth and death rates, vaccinations for newborns and non-newborns, and temporary immunity. In order to determine the equilibrium points, namely the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, and study their local stability behaviors, the SEIRS model is rescaled with the total time-varying population and analyzed according to its epidemic condition R0 for two cases of no epidemic (R0 ≤ 1) and epidemic (R0 > 1) using the time-series and phase portraits of the susceptible s, exposed e, infected i, and recovered r individuals. Based on the experimental results using a set of arbitrarily-defined parameters for horizontal transmission of the infectious diseases, the proportional population of the SEIRS model consisted primarily of the recovered r (0.7-0.9) individuals and susceptible s (0.0-0.1) individuals (epidemic) and recovered r (0.9) individuals with only a small proportional population for the susceptible s (0.1) individuals (no epidemic). Overall, the initial conditions for the susceptible s, exposed e, infected i, and recovered r individuals reached the corresponding equilibrium point for local stability: no epidemic (DFE XDFE) and epidemic (EE XEE). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a mathematical model to describe the spread of an infectious disease on a farm is developed. To analyze the evolution of the infection, the direct transmission from infected individuals and the indirect transmission from the bacteria accumulated in the enclosure are considered. A threshold value of population is obtained to assure the extinction of the disease. When this size of population is exceeded, two control procedures to apply at each time are proposed. For each of them, a maximum number of steps without control and reducing the prevalence of disease is obtained. In addition, a criterion to choose between both procedures is established. Finally, the results are numerically simulated for a hypothetical outbreak on a farm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]