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In the spring of 2022, a new round of epidemic broke out in Shanghai, causing a shock to the Shanghai carbon trading market. Against this background, this paper studied the impact of the new epidemic on the price of Shanghai carbon emission rights and tried to explore the prediction model under the unexpected event. First, because a model based on point value data cannot capture the information hidden in inter-day price fluctuation, based on the interval price of Shanghai carbon emission rights (SHEA) and its influencing factors, an autoregressive conditional interval model with jumping and exogenous variables (ACIXJ) was established to explore the influence of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict and COVID-19 on the interval price of SHEA, respectively. The empirical results show that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has no obvious influence on the price of SHEA, but COVID-19 led to a decline in the price trend of SHEA over four days before the city was closed, and the volatility changed significantly on the day before the city was closed. The price fluctuation was the strongest within 3 days after the city was closed; In addition, in order to accurately predict the interval data of SHEA against the background of COVID-19, based on the interval data decomposition algorithm (BEMD), a hybrid forecasting model of NDGM-ACIXJ/CNN-LSTM was constructed, in which the discrete gray model of approximate nonhomogeneous exponential series (NDGM) combined with the ACIXJ model is used to predict the high-frequency sub-interval, and the convolution neural network long-term and short-term memory model (CNN-LSTM) is used to predict the low-frequency sub-interval. The empirical results show that the prediction model proposed in this article has higher prediction precision than the reference models (ACIX, ACIXJ, NDGM-ACIXJ, BEMD-ACIX/CNN-LSTM, BEMD-ACIXJ/CNN-LSTM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted public health and economies worldwide. In this paper, we investigate an optimal control problem to simultaneously minimize the epidemic size and control costs associated with intervention strategies based on official data. Considering people with undetected infections, we establish a control system of COVID-19 with time-varying parameters. To estimate these parameters, a parameter identification scheme is adopted and a mixed algorithm is constructed. Moreover, we present an optimal control problem with two objectives that involve the newly increased number of infected individuals and the control costs. A numerical scheme is conducted, simulating the epidemic data pertaining to Shanghai during the period of 2022, caused by the Omicron variant. Coefficient combinations of the objectives are obtained, and the optimal control measures for different infection peaks are indicated. The numerical results suggest that the identification variables obtained by using the constructed mixed algorithm to solve the parameter identification problem are feasible. Optimal control measures for different epidemic peaks can serve as references for decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous development of the Automatic Train Operation (ATO) system in high-speed railways, automatic driving is progressively supplanting manual operations, ushering in a new era of predictability and reliability for high-speed railway transport. Concurrently, the advent of the ATO system provides a notable impact on real-time rescheduling during disruptions, as it equips dispatchers with precise insights into train operation statuses. This paper is dedicated to a thorough analysis of how the transition to automatic driving in train operations influences the real-time rescheduling model. Based on the distinctive impact of the ATO system on real-time rescheduling, we have proposed a mixed-integer linear programming model that combines train re-timing, reordering, and the minimization of passenger delays. To validate the effectiveness of our model, we present several experiments conducted using data from the Beijing–Shanghai high-speed railway line. The results unequivocally demonstrate that our ATO-based model significantly mitigates train delay time, demonstrating its practical value in optimizing high-speed railway operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the factors influencing the passenger flow of rail transit stations in Shanghai of China are studied by using the entropy weight-grey correlation model. The model assumptions and the corresponding variables are proposed, including traffic accessibility, built environment, regional characteristics of the district to which the rail transit station belongs, conditions of the station and spatial location, which affect the passenger flow of rail transit stations. Based on the assumptions and the variables, the entropy weight-grey correlation model for analyzing the passenger flow of urban rail transit stations is presented. By collecting the data of passenger flow of rail transit stations and corresponding influencing factors in Shanghai, the results of the entropy weight-grey correlation model are obtained. It is shown that the influencing factors, such as the distances from the rail transit station to the adjacent third-class hospital and the adjacent large commercial plazas, district committees, parking areas and the transaction price of important plots, and the gross output value of the tertiary industry, have significant impacts on the passenger flow of a subway station. Finally, some suggestions are proposed for the local governments to formulate improved policies for rail transit development. The conclusions can provide a reference for the development of rail transit in other large cities and countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of urban residential rents is of great importance for landlords, tenants, and investors. However, existing rents prediction models face challenges in meeting practical demands due to their limited perspectives and inadequate prediction performance. The existing individual prediction models often lack satisfactory accuracy, while ensemble learning models that combine multiple individual models to improve prediction results often overlook the impact of spatial heterogeneity on residential rents. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel prediction model called GERPM, which stands for Geographically Weighted Stacking Ensemble Learning-Based Urban Residential Rents Prediction Model. GERPM comprehensively analyzes the influencing factors of residential rents from multiple perspectives and leverages a geographically weighted stacking ensemble learning approach. The model combines multiple machine learning and deep learning models, optimizes parameters to achieve optimal predictions, and incorporates the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to consider spatial heterogeneity. By combining the strengths of deep learning and machine learning models and taking into account geographical factors, GERPM aims to improve prediction accuracy and provide robust predictions for urban residential rents. The model is evaluated using housing data from Nanjing, a major city in China, and compared with representative individual prediction models, the equal weight combination model, and the ensemble learning model. The experimental results demonstrate that GERPM outperforms other models in terms of prediction performance. Furthermore, the model's effectiveness and robustness are validated by applying it to other major cities in China, such as Shanghai and Hangzhou. Overall, GERPM shows promising potential in accurately predicting urban residential rents and contributing to the advancement of the rental market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Portfolio management has long been one of the most significant challenges in large- and small-scale investments alike. The primary objective of portfolio management is to make investments with the most favorable rate of return and the lowest amount of risk. On the other hand, time series prediction has garnered significant attention in recent years for predicting the trend of stock prices in the future. The combination of these two approaches, i.e., predicting the future stock price and adopting portfolio management methods in the forecasted time series, has turned out to be a novel research line in the past few years. That is, to have a better understanding of the future, various researchers have attempted to predict the future behavior of stocks and subsequently implement portfolio management techniques on them. However, due to the uncertainty in predicting the future, the reliability of these methodologies is in question, and it is unclear to what extent their results can be relied upon. Therefore, probabilistic approaches have also entered the research arena, and attempts have been made to incorporate uncertainty into future forecasting and portfolio management. This issue has led to the development of probabilistic portfolio management for future data. This review paper begins with a discussion of various time-series prediction methods for stock market data. Next, a classification and evaluation of portfolio management approaches are provided. Afterwards, the Monte Carlo sampling method is discussed as the most prevalent technique for probabilistic analysis of stock market data. The probabilistic portfolio management method is applied to future Shanghai Stock Exchange data in the form of a case study to measure the applicability of this method to real-world projects. The results of this research can serve as a benchmark example for the analysis of other stock market data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to predict stock prices is essential for informing investment decisions in the stock market. However, the complexity of various factors influencing stock prices has been widely studied. Traditional methods, which rely on time-series information for a single stock, are incomplete as they lack a holistic perspective. The linkage effect in the stock market, where stock prices are influenced by those of associated stocks, necessitates the use of more comprehensive data. Currently, stock relationship information is mainly obtained through industry classification data from third-party platforms, but these data are often approximate and subject to time lag. To address this, this paper proposes a time series relational model (TSRM) that integrates time and relationship information. The TSRM utilizes transaction data of stocks to automatically obtain stock classification through a K-means model and derives stock relationships. The time series information, extracted using long short-term memory (LSTM), and relationship information, extracted with a graph convolutional network (GCN), are integrated to predict stock prices. The TSRM was tested in the Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, with results showing an improvement in cumulative returns by 44% and 41%, respectively, compared to the baseline, and a reduction in maximum drawdown by 4.9% and 6.6%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of global trade, ports and terminals are playing an increasingly important role, and automatic guided vehicles (AGVs) have been used as the main carriers performing the loading/unloading operations in automated container terminals. In this paper, we investigate a multi-AGV dynamic scheduling problem to improve the terminal operational efficiency, considering the sophisticated complexity and uncertainty involved in the port terminal operation. We propose to model the dynamic scheduling of AGVs as a Markov decision process (MDP) with mixed decision rules. Then, we develop a novel adaptive learning algorithm based on a deep Q-network (DQN) to generate the optimal policy. The proposed algorithm is trained based on data obtained from interactions with a simulation environment that reflects the real-world operation of an automated in Shanghai, China. The simulation studies show that, compared with conventional scheduling methods using a heuristic algorithm, i.e., genetic algorithm (GA) and rule-based scheduling, terminal the proposed approach performs better in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) data are widely used to estimate land surface PM 2.5 concentrations in areas not covered by ground PM 2.5 monitoring stations. However, AOD data obtained from satellites are typically at coarse spatial resolutions, limiting their applications on small or medium scales. In this paper, we propose a new two-step approach to estimate 1-km-resolution PM 2.5 concentrations in Shanghai using high spatial resolution AOD retrievals from MODIS. In the first step, AOD data are refined to a 1 × 1 km 2 resolution via a Bayesian AOD retrieval method. In the second step, a hierarchical Gaussian process model is used to estimate PM 2.5 concentrations. We evaluate our approach by model fitting and out-of-sample cross-validation. Our results show that the proposed approach enjoys accurate predictive performance in estimating PM 2.5 concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to achieve carbon peak and neutrality goals, many low-carbon operations are implemented in ports. Integrated energy systems that consist of port electricity and cooling loads, wind and PV energy devices, energy storage, and clean fuels are considered as a future technology. In addition, ports are important hubs for the global economy and trade; logistics optimization is also part of their objective, and most port facilities have complex logistics. This article proposes an energy–logistics collaborative optimization method to fully tap the potential of port-integrated energy systems. A logistics–energy system model is established by deeply examining the operational characteristics of logistics systems and their corresponding energy consumption patterns, considering ships' operational statuses, quay crane distribution constraints, and power balances. To better represent the ship–energy–logistics optimization problem, a hybrid system modeling technique is employed. The case of Shanghai Port is studied; the results show that costs can be reduced by 3.27% compared to the traditional optimization method, and a sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arrival interval at high-speed railway stations is one of the key factors that restrict the improvement of the train following intervals. In the process of practical railway operation, sudden conflicts occur sometimes. Especially when the conflict arises at the station, because the home signal cannot be opened in time, the emergency may affect the adjustment of the train operation under the scheduled timetable, resulting in a longer train following interval or even delay. With the development of artificial intelligence and the deep integration of big data, the architecture of train operation control and dispatch integration is gradually improving from the theoretical point. Based on this and inspired by the Green Wave policy, we propose an integrated operation method that reduces the arrival interval by avoiding unnecessary stops in front of the home signal and increasing the running speed of trains through the throat area. It is a two-step optimization method combining both intelligent optimization and mathematical–theoretical analysis algorithms. In the first step, the recommended approaching speed and position are obtained by analytical calculation. In the second step, the speed profile from the current position to the position corresponding to the recommended approaching speed is optimized by intelligent optimization algorithms. Finally, the integrated method is verified through the analysis of two distinct case studies. The first case study utilizes data from the Beijing–Shanghai high-speed railway line, while the second one is based on the field test. The numerical result shows that the proposed method could save the entry running time effectively, compared with the normal strategy given by the train driver. The method can mitigate controllable conflict events occurring at the station and provides theoretical support for practical operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the price correlation effect between domestic and foreign copper futures contracts. The VAR-BEKK-GARCH (1,1) spillover effect model and the BN-S class non-parametric model based on the jumping perspective are used. The co-integration test shows a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three copper futures markets, and the Granger causality test shows that copper futures contracts have significant two-way spillover effects between different periods in Shanghai for New York copper and unidirectional mean spillover effects for London copper. The BEKK model shows significant bidirectional fluctuation spillover effects between the futures contracts of the Shanghai, London, and New York copper markets before the stock market crash. After the crash, Shanghai and New York copper have significant one-way fluctuation spillover effects on London copper futures contracts. There are jumps within a single market, and the number of joint jumps between markets increases with the significance level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon trading has been deemed as the most effective mechanism to mitigate carbon emissions. However, during carbon trading market operation, competition among market participants will inevitably occur; hence, the precise forecasting of the carbon trading price (CTP) has become a significant element in the formulation of competition strategies. This investigation has established a hybrid CTP forecasting framework combining complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), sample entropy (SE) method, improved salp swarm algorithm (ISSA), and multi-kernel extreme learning machine (MKELM) methods to improve forecasting accuracy. Firstly, the initial CTP data sequence is disintegrated into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual sequence by a CEEMDAN method. Secondly, to save calculation time, SE method has been utilized to reconstruct the IMFs and the residual sequence into new IMFs. Thirdly, the new IMFs are fed into the MKELM model, combing RBF and the poly kernel functions to utilize their superior learning and generalization abilities. The parameters of the MKELM model are optimized by ISSA, combining dynamic inertia weight and chaotic local searching method into the SSA to enhance the searching speed, convergence precision, as well as the global searching ability. CTP data in Guangdong, Shanghai, and Hubei are selected to prove the validity of the established CEEMDAN-SE-ISSA-MKELM model. Through a comparison analysis, the established CEEMDAN-SE-ISSA-MKELM model performs the best with the smallest MAPE and RMSE values and the highest R2 value, which are 0.76%, 0.53, and 0.99, respectively, for Guangdong,. Thus, the presented model would be extensively applied in CTP forecasting in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earnings management refers to a company's use of either accounting techniques (accrual-based earnings management) or real economic activities (real earnings management) to manipulate reported earnings and mislead users of financial information. It often indicates serious ethical issues in a company's management, which will affect the reliability and sustainability of a firm's services in the supply chain. Using A-share listed Chinese firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, we investigated the impacts of state ownership on management's decision to select real or accrual-based earnings management strategies. We found that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) tend to favor real earnings management over accrual-based earnings management more than non-SOEs. Furthermore, those SOEs that are controlled by the central government engage in real earnings management more often than those controlled by local governments. We also examined whether media attention and litigation interact with state ownership to affect earnings management. We found that SOEs, especially central SOEs, with a high level of media attention or an incidence of litigation, are more likely to use real earnings management. Our research can assist firms in making better decisions in selecting business partners and service suppliers in an emerging market through the assessment of management integrity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patent classification has long been regarded as a crucial task in patent information management and patent knowledge mining. In recent years, studies combining deep learning automatic patent classification methods with deep neural networks have significantly increased. Although great efforts have been made in the patent deep classification task, they mainly focus on information extraction from a single view (e.g., title or abstract view), but few studies concern multi-view deep patent classification, which aims to improve patent classification performance by integrating information from different views. To that end, we propose a reliable multi-view deep patent classification method. Within this method, we fuse multi-view patent information at the evidence level from the perspective of evidence theory, which not only effectively improves classification performance but also provides a reliable uncertainty estimation to solve the unreliability of classification results caused by property differences and inconsistencies in the different patent information sources. In addition, we theoretically prove that our approach can reduce the uncertainty of classification results through the fusion of multiple patent views, thus facilitating the performance and reliability of the classification results. The experimental results on 759,809 real-world multi-view patent data in Shanghai, China, demonstrate the effectiveness, reliability, and robustness of our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of bridge service performance is essential for bridge maintenance, operation, and decision making. As a key component of the superstructure, the performance of the main girders is critical to the structural safety of the bridge. This study makes full use of the inspection records from the Bridge Management System (BMS) in Shanghai and performs pre-processing work on a large amount of data. Recent advances in survival analysis were utilized to investigate the inspection records of over 40,000 reinforced concrete bridge main girders over a 14-year period. Survival analysis methods based on the Weibull distribution were used to predict the service performance of the main girders, and, in addition, a COX proportional hazards model was used to analyze the effect of different covariates on the survival of the main girders. The results show that the deterioration rate of main girders increases with age, with an average life of 87 years for main girders in Shanghai. The grade of the road on which the bridge is located and the position of the main girder in the bridge superstructure have a significant impact on the probability of survival of the main girder. It can be concluded that more attention should be paid to the inspection and maintenance of side girders on branch roads to reduce the pressure on bridge management in the future. Furthermore, the analysis in this study found that the deterioration rate of the main girders is faster than the deterioration rate of the whole bridge and superstructure, and, therefore, more attention and necessary preventive maintenance measures should be taken in the maintenance and management of the main girders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent price crash of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract, which occurred on 20 April 2020, has caused history-writing movements of relative prices. For instance, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) experienced a negative price. Explosive heteroskedasticity is also evidenced in associated products, such as the Intercontinental Exchange Brent (BRE) and Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) crude oil futures. Those movements indicate potential non-stationarity in the conditional volatility with an asymmetric influence of negative shocks. To incorporate those features, which cannot be accommodated by the existing generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, we propose a threshold zero-drift GARCH (TZD-GARCH) model. Our empirical studies of the daily INE returns from March 2018 to April 2020 demonstrate the usefulness of the TZD-GARCH model in understanding the empirical features and in precisely forecasting the volatility of INE. Robust checks based on BRE and WTI over various periods further lead to highly consistent results. Applications of news impact curves and Value-at-Risk (VaR) analyses indicate the usefulness of the proposed TZD-GARCH model in practice. Implications include more effectively hedging risks of crude oil futures for policymakers and market participants, as well as the potential market inefficiency of INE relative to WTI and BRE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In times of crisis, the vulnerability of global financial markets can be considered as an element in the analysis of economic stability and sustainable development, which also indicates significant differences in the recognition of economic capital. We aimed to analyse the convergence of accounting systems within a global context under the influence of economic crises and uncertainty, which was based on an observational study of the major financial markets in Paris, New York and Shanghai during the period of 2015–2022. A dedicated database was built using official information. The main objective of the study was to develop a volatility matrix of the gravity development model in relation to the characteristics of the accounting systems on which economic capital recognition is based. The proposed model highlights regional disparities according to relevant statistical grounds and quantifies the volatility issues that are induced by the application of economic capital recognition rules on the global model. The methods that were used consisted of a critical study of the literature to substantiate the research hypotheses and an application of analytical procedures to define, test and validate the proposed statistical model. The usefulness of the model is all the more important because its development took into account the pandemic period and the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine, which helped to create pragmatic tools to ensure the faster convergence of accounting systems and limit the spread of vulnerabilities through open transactions on the global market. The results of the research can support decision makers in accessing regional financial markets and achieving a better convergence of accounting information. The study and its approach were new and original and the results represent a good base for accounting policy adjustments from a global perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present article proposes a methodology for modeling the evolution of stock market indexes for 2020 using geometric Brownian motion (GBM), but in which drift and diffusion are determined considering two states of economic conjunctures (states of the economy), i.e., non-crisis and financial crisis. Based on this approach, we have found that the GBM proved to be a suitable model for making forecasts of stock market index values, as it describes quite well their future evolution. However, the model proposed by us, modified geometric Brownian motion (mGBM), brings some contributions that better describe the future evolution of stock indexes. Evidence in this regard was provided by analyzing the DAX, S&P 500, and SHANGHAI Composite stock indexes. Throughout the research, it was also found that the entropy of these markets, analyzed in the periods of non-crisis and financial crisis, does not differ significantly for DAX—German Stock Exchange (EU) and S&P 500—New York Stock Exchange (US), and insignificant differences for SHANGHAI Composite—Shanghai Stock Exchange (Asia). Given the fact that there is a direct link between market efficiency and their entropy (high entropy—high efficiency; low entropy—low efficiency), it can be deduced that the analyzed markets are information-efficient in both economic conjunctures, and, in this case, the use of GBM for forecasting is justified, as the prices have a random evolution (random walk). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]