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The level of difficulty of mathematical test items is a critical aspect for evaluating test quality and educational outcomes. Accurately predicting item difficulty during test creation is thus significantly important for producing effective test papers. This study used more than ten years of content and score data from China's Henan Provincial College Entrance Examination in Mathematics as an evaluation criterion for test difficulty, and all data were obtained from the Henan Provincial Department of Education. Based on the framework established by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) for test item assessment methodology, this paper proposes a new framework containing eight features considering the uniqueness of mathematics. Next, this paper proposes an XGBoost-based SHAP model for analyzing the difficulty of mathematics tests. By coupling the XGBoost method with the SHAP method, the model not only evaluates the difficulty of mathematics tests but also analyzes the contribution of specific features to item difficulty, thereby increasing transparency and mitigating the "black box" nature of machine learning models. The model has a high prediction accuracy of 0.99 for the training set and 0.806 for the test set. With the model, we found that parameter-level features and reasoning-level features are significant factors influencing the difficulty of subjective items in the exam. In addition, we divided senior secondary mathematics knowledge into nine units based on Chinese curriculum standards and found significant differences in the distribution of the eight features across these different knowledge units, which can help teachers place different emphasis on different units during the teaching process. In summary, our proposed approach significantly improves the accuracy of item difficulty prediction, which is crucial for intelligent educational applications such as knowledge tracking, automatic test item generation, and intelligent paper generation. These results provide tools that are better aligned with and responsive to students' learning needs, thus effectively informing educational practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the occurrence of the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. unconventional monetary policy affected the Chinese market. Based on a monthly data sample from 2008M1 to 2015M12, in this paper we identify U.S. and Chinese monetary policy shocks by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with multi-external instrumental variables along with principal component analysis (PCA) combined with high-frequency financial market data. The empirical results show that the unconventional monetary policies had a negative effect on China's inflation and output due to the signal effect, and China's stock and commodity markets increased in the short term. During the same period, China's monetary policy had a greater impact on the domestic economy and financial markets. The conclusion of this paper provides a significant reference for relevant departments to make decisions amidst the new wave of unconventional U.S. monetary policies due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Solow residual method, traditionally pivotal for calculating total factor productivity (TFP), is typically not applied to green TFP calculations due to its exclusion of undesired outputs. Diverging from traditional approaches and other frontier methodologies such as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), this paper integrates undesired outputs and three types of spatial spillover effects into the conventional Solow framework, thereby creating a new spatiotemporal econometric Solow residual method (STE-SRM). Utilizing this novel method, the study computes the industrial green TFPs for 280 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2019, recalculates these TFPs using DEA-SBM and Bayesian SFA for the same cities and periods, and assesses the accuracy of the STE-SRM-derived TFPs through comparative analysis. Additionally, the paper explores the statistical properties of China's urban industrial green TFPs as derived from the STE-SRM, employing Dagum's Gini coefficient and spatial convergence analyses. The findings first indicate that by incorporating undesired outputs and spatial spillover into the Solow residual method, green TFPs are computable in alignment with the traditional Solow logic, although the allocation of per capita inputs and undesired outputs hinges on selecting the optimal empirical production function. Second, China's urban industrial green TFPs, calculated using the STE-SRM with the spatial Durbin model with mixed effects as the optimal model, show that cities like Huangshan, Fangchenggang, and Sanya have notably higher TFPs, whereas Jincheng, Datong, and Taiyuan display lower TFPs. Third, comparisons of China's urban industrial green TFP calculations reveal that those derived from the STE-SRM demonstrate broader but more concentrated results, while Bayesian SFA results are narrower and less concentrated, and DEA-SBM findings sit between these extremes. Fourth, the study highlights significant spatial heterogeneity in China's urban industrial green TFPs across different regions—eastern, central, western, and northeast China—with evident sigma convergence across the urban landscape, though absolute beta convergence is significant only in a limited subset of cities and time periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high-quality development of the industrial software industry is of strategic significance to enhancing the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and promoting the high-quality development of China's industrial economy. By integrating the "capital-technology-environment-human" production factor theory and configuration perspective, this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework that drives the total factor productivity (TFP) of the industrial software industry. This paper uses 40 typical industrial software firms in 2018–2020 as case samples and uses fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to empirically explore the influencing factors and complex mechanisms that achieve high-quality development of the industrial software industry. It is found that: (1) a single industrial factor is hardly a necessary condition to drive the industrial software industry; (2) there are four paths to achieving high TFP, which are summarized as "technical-human-environmental" balanced driving type, "capital-human-environmental" balanced driving type, "technical-capital" dual driving type, and "capital" single driving type. There are four driving mechanisms. There are also four not-high TFP configurations with asymmetric characteristics; (3) under certain conditions, the combination of capital factors, technical factors, environmental factors, and human factors can drive TFP in an "all roads lead to Rome". In this process, the government's attention plays a more universal role. The study not only expands the application scenarios of fsQCA but also provides decision guidelines for the practice of strategic emerging industrialization represented by the industrial software industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most important examinations in China, the National College Entrance Examination (commonly known as the Gaokao, hereafter denoted Gaokao) has a long history and has attracted attention from the Chinese educational community, among others. This study focused on mathematics test items of the Gaokao from the perspective of mathematical culture and examined the national papers (drafted by the Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China) of tests from 1978 to 2021 in order to investigate the content and time variation characteristics of mathematics test items reflecting mathematical culture since its restoration. A mathematical culture categorization conceptual framework was established based on previous studies and was applied to test item analysis. Mathematical culture in test items was classified using four categories: Historical Topics, Interdisciplinary Connections, Social Roles, and Aesthetics & Recreation. These were used for data coding and analysis. The results showed that mathematical culture in the mathematics test items of the Gaokao over a 44-year period, in terms of content categories, was diverse but uneven in distribution, with greater focus on demonstrating the social roles of mathematics and less on the historical development of mathematical knowledge. Moreover, the average number of items with mathematical culture during this period was small and fluctuated over time. The content of topics related to social context and technology also changed over time with the distinct characteristics of the times and changes in society. This study provides empirical evidence on how mathematical culture is integrated into test items and how they have changed over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transmission rate is an important indicator for characterizing a virus and estimating the risk of its outbreak in a certain area, but it is hard to measure. COVID-19, for instance, has greatly affected the world for more than 3 years since early 2020, but scholars have not yet found an effective method to obtain its timely transmission rate due to the fact that the value of COVID-19 transmission rate is not constant but dynamic, always changing over time and places. Therefore, in order to estimate the timely dynamic transmission rate of COVID-19, we performed the following: first, we utilized a rolling time series to construct a time-varying transmission rate model and, based on the model, managed to obtain the dynamic value of COVID-19 transmission rate in mainland China; second, to verify the result, we used the obtained COVID-19 transmission rate as the explanatory variable to conduct empirical research on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's stock markets. Eventually, the result revealed that the COVID-19 transmission rate had a significant negative impact on China's stock markets, which, to some extent, confirms the validity of the used measurement method in this paper. Notably, the model constructed in this paper, combined with local conditions, can not only be used to estimate the COVID-19 transmission rate in mainland China but also in other affected countries or regions and would be applicable to calculate the transmission rate of other pathogens, not limited to COVID-19, which coincidently fills the gaps in the research. Furthermore, the research based on this model might play a part in regulating anti-pandemic governmental policies and could also help investors and stakeholders to make decisions in a pandemic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the first fully homomorphic encryption scheme was published in 2009, many papers have been published on fully homomorphic encryption and its applications. Machine learning is one of the most interesting applications and has drawn a lot of attention from researchers. To better represent and understand the field of Homomorphic Encryption in Machine Learning (HEML), this paper utilizes automated citation and topic analysis to characterize the HEML research literature over the years and provide the bibliometrics assessments for this burgeoning field. This is conducted by using a bibliometric statistical analysis approach. We make use of web-based literature databases and automated tools to present the development of HEML. This allows us to target several popular topics for in-depth discussion. To achieve these goals, we have chosen the well-established Scopus literature database and analyzed them through keyword counts and Scopus relevance searches. The results show a relative increase in the number of papers published each year that involve both homomorphic cryptography and machine learning. Using text mining of articles titles, we have found that cloud computing is a popular topic in this field, which also includes neural networks, big data, and the Internet of Things. The analysis results show that China, the US, and India have generated almost half of all the research contributions in HEML. The citation statistics, keyword statistics, and topic analyses give us a quick overview of the development of the field, which can be of great help to new researchers. It is also possible to apply our methodology to other research areas, and we see great value in this approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public capital plays a key role in national economic production in developing countries, and it has become the focus of factor reform in China. This paper aims at studying the dynamic characteristics of China's public capital and the return rate. To this end, this paper inventories the public capital stock from 1978 to 2017; constructs a two-sector model to derive the necessary condition for optimal investment related to the return rate, and empirically tests it; estimates the output shares of the two sectors and calculates the rate of return to capital; and illustrates the dynamic evolution of public capital and the return rate from the time and regional dimensions. The study shows that, first, public capital has grown significantly. The portion of public capital held in the form of state-holding is increasing year by year. However, the proportion of public capital to total capital has decreased from 81% to 35%. Second, the growth of public capital has effectively balanced the gap of capital between regions. Third, the rate of return to capital has been decreasing, with two sectors' return rates having converged in 1981 and in 2010–2013. This paper measures the stock of public capital and its return rate, which is beneficial for formulating the policy of public capital in economic production and distribution, as well as exploring the path to achieving common prosperity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microseismic data are widely employed for assessing rockburst risks; however, significant disparities exist in the monitoring capabilities of seismic networks across different mines, and none can capture a complete dataset of microseismic events. Such differences introduce unfairness when applying the same methodologies to evaluate rockburst risks in various mines. This paper proposes a method for assessing the monitoring capability of seismic networks applicable to heterogeneous media in mines. It achieves this by integrating three gradient boosting algorithms: Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost). Initially, the isolation forest algorithm is utilized for preliminary data cleansing, and feature engineering is constructed based on the relative locations of event occurrences to monitoring stations and the working face. Subsequently, the optimal hyperparameters for three models are searched for using 8508 microseismic events from the a Coal Mine in eastern China as samples, and 18 sub-models are trained. Model weights are then determined based on the performance metrics of different algorithms, and an ensemble model is created to predict the monitoring capability of the network. The model demonstrated excellent performance on the training and test sets, achieving log loss, accuracy, and recall scores of 7.13, 0.81, and 0.76 and 6.99, 0.80, and 0.77, respectively. Finally, the method proposed in this study was compared with traditional approaches. The results indicated that, under the same conditions, the proposed method calculated the monitoring capability of the key areas to be 11% lower than that of the traditional methods. The reasons for the differences between these methods were identified and partially explained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing prominence of the problem of censored data in various fields has made studying how to perform parameter estimation and variable selection in censored mixed-effects models one of the hotspots of current research. In this paper, considering the situation that the response variable is restricted by the bilateral limit, a double-penalty Bayesian Tobit quantile regression model was constructed to carry out parameter estimation and variable selection in the interval-censored mixed-effects model, and at the same time, the fixed-effects and random effects coefficients are compressed in Tobit's mixed-effects model, so as to reduce the estimation error of the model at the same time as the variable selection of the model is carried out. The posterior distribution of each unknown parameter was derived using the conditional Laplace prior and the mixed truncated normal distribution of interval-censored data, and then the Gibbs sampling algorithm for unknown parameter estimation was constructed. Through Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the new method is more advantageous than the classical method in terms of variable selection and parameter estimation accuracy in various situations, such as different model sparsity, different data censoring ratios and different random error distributions, and the model is able to realize automatic variable selection. Finally, the new method is used to analyze the correlation between the crime rate and various economic indicators in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long waiting times and crowded services are the current medical situation in China. Especially in hierarchic healthcare systems, as high-quality medical resources are mainly concentrated in comprehensive hospitals, patients are too concentrated in these hospitals, which leads to overcrowding. This paper constructs a game-theoretical queueing model to analyze the strategic queueing behavior of patients. In such hospitals, patients are divided into first-visit and referred patients, and the hospitals provide patients with two service phases of "diagnosis" and "treatment". We first obtain the expected sojourn time. By defining the patience level of patients, the queueing behavior of patients in equilibrium is studied. The results suggest that as long as the patients with low patience levels join the queue, the patients with high patience levels also join the queue. As more patients arrive at the hospitals, the queueing behavior of patients with high patience levels may have a negative effect on that of patients with low patience levels. The numerical results also show that the equilibrium behavior deviates from a socially optimal solution; therefore, to reach maximal social welfare, the social planner should adopt some regulatory policies to control the arrival rates of patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With respect to a traditional point-to-point (P-P) network, a hub-and-spoke (H-S) network not only uses a smaller number of links/paths but also utilizes the scale economy advantage on consolidated flows on hub–hub links and at hubs. However, the inevitable delays through hubs have always been a critical concern. Therefore, this paper develops an H-S model considering flow delay costs and applies the model to a logistics case in Eastern China. The integer quadratic term in the model's objective function is linearized using the algebraic method. Our model is applied to develop an H-S network for its 13-node express package delivery operation, using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The results show using the H-S can save more than 14.1% of the total cost annually. The model also provides an applied case to the H-S configuration, especially for urban express delivery logistics in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic operation of hydropower stations has the potential to increase water use efficiency. However, there are some challenges, such as the fixed and unchangeable flow characteristic curve of the hydraulic turbines, and the large number of variables in optimal load distribution, which limit the progress of research. In this paper, we propose a new optimal method of the economic operation of hydropower stations based on improved Long Short-Term Memory neural network (I-LSTM) and Random Forest (RF) algorithm. Firstly, in order to accurately estimate the water consumption, the LSTM model's hyperparameters are optimized using improved particle swarm optimization, and the I-LSTM method is proposed to fit the flow characteristic curve of the hydraulic turbines. Secondly, the Random Forest machine learning algorithm is introduced to establish a load-distribution model with its powerful feature extraction and learning ability. To improve the accuracy of the load-distribution model, we use the K-means algorithm to cluster the historical data and optimize the parameters of the Random Forest model. A Hydropower Station in China is selected for a case study. It is shown that (1) the I-LSTM method fits the operating characteristics under various working conditions and actual operating characteristics of hydraulic turbines, ensuring that they are closest to the actual operating state; (2) the I-LSTM method is compared with Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM). The prediction results of SVM have a large error, but compared with ELM and LSTM, MSE is reduced by about 46% and 38% respectively. MAE is reduced by about 25% and 21%, respectively. RMSE is reduced by about 27% and 24%, respectively; (3) the RF algorithm performs better than the traditional dynamic programming algorithm in load distribution. With the passage of time and the increase in training samples, the prediction accuracy of the Random Forest model has steadily improved, which helps to achieve optimal operation of the units, reducing their average total water consumption by 1.24%. This study provides strong support for the application of intelligent low-consumption optimization strategies in hydropower fields, which can bring higher economic benefits and resource savings to renewable energy production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of China's express delivery industry, the number of express packaging has proliferated, leading to many problems such as environmental pollution and resource waste. In this paper, the process of reverse logistics network design for express packaging recycling is given as an example in the M region, and a four-level network containing primary recycling nodes, recycling centers, processing centers, and terminals is established. A candidate node selection model based on the K-means algorithm is constructed to cluster by distance from 535 courier outlets to select 15 candidate nodes of recycling centers and processing centers. A node selection model based on the NSGA-II algorithm is constructed to identify recycling centers and processing centers from 15 candidate nodes with minimizing total cost and carbon emission as the objective function, and a set of Pareto solution sets containing 43 solutions is obtained. According to the distribution of the solution set, the 43 solutions are classified into I, II, and III categories. The results indicate that the solutions corresponding to Class I and Class II solutions can be selected when the recycling system gives priority to cost, Class II and Class III solutions can be selected when the recycling system gives priority to environmental benefits, and Class III solutions can be selected when the society-wide recycling system has developed to a certain extent. In addition, this paper also randomly selects a sample solution from each of the three types of solution sets, conducts coding interpretation for site selection, vehicle selection, and treatment technology selection, and gives an example design scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, e-commerce allows consumers access to a wide range of products on the global market, quick and convenient selection, purchase, ordering, and payment of products. Consumers expect to receive the products they bought online, very quickly, at favorable prices and delivery conditions. However, it is often not possible, because global supply chains are realized over large geographical distances, with a whole range of disruptions and challenges that need to be successfully overcome. With the aim of efficiently delivering products and meeting consumer expectations, retailers often leave this job to specialized and resilient logistics companies better known as fourth-party logistics (4PL) providers. On this occasion, it is necessary to conduct a very thorough evaluation of the logistics provider based on appropriate scientific approaches and models. In this paper, a new hybrid approach for the evaluation of resilient 4PLs was proposed, with the aim of providing appropriate support for the decision-making system on product delivery in e-commerce. The hybrid approach is based on the fuzzy full consistency method (FUCOM), evidence theory (ET), rule-based transformation (RBT), and weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS) methods. The proposed model was tested and applied to an example of an online retailer, which sells and delivers products originating from China and the countries of the Far East to the market of the Western Balkans and Southeastern Europe. Five 4PL providers were evaluated and ranked according to 10 criteria. According to the results, the most important criterion was IT capabilities, while the least important was cooperation. Additionally, sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine whether the final ranking will change. The obtained results showed that the proposed methodology represents a valuable decision support tool that can be used for solving not only the problem described in this paper but also similar problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With technological transformations such as big data, blockchain, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing, digital techniques are infiltrating the field of finance. Digital finance (DF) is a resource-saving and environmentally friendly innovative financial service. It shows great green attributes and can drive the flow of financial resources towards environmentally-friendly enterprises, thereby promoting green low-carbon circular development (GLCD). However, few studies have explored the coupling mechanism between DF and GLCD. To fill this gap, this paper explores the effect of DF on GLCD, and established a mediating effect model to investigate the mechanism of DF in promoting GLCD. Additionally, this paper established a random forest model and a CatBoost model based on machine learning to examine the relative importance of DF and the factors affecting GLCD. The results show that DF has significant positive effects on GLCD, and technological innovation plays a key role in the effect of DF on GLCD; meanwhile, the effect of DF on GLCD shows nonlinear features with an increasing "marginal effect"; moreover, both DF and conventional factors have significant impacts on GLCD. Our study highlights the effect of DF on GLCD and underscores the importance of developing policies for DF and GLCD. This study provides an empirical basis and path reference for DF to achieve "carbon peak, carbon neutralization" in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree of informatization of coal mine safety management is becoming higher and higher, and a large amount of information is generated in this process. How to convert the existing information into useful data for risk control has become a challenge. To solve this challenge, this paper studies the mathematical model of coal mine risk early warning in China based on data mining. Firstly, the coal mine risk data was comprehensively analyzed to provide basic data for the risk prediction model of data mining. Then, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was optimized twice to build the coal mine risk prediction model. By optimizing the calculation method of the control chart, the coal mine risk early warning system was proposed. Finally, based on the coal mine risk early warning model, the software platform was developed and applied to coal mines in China to control the risks at all levels. The results show that the error of the optimized ANFIS was reduced by 66%, and the early warning error was reduced by 57%. This study aimed to provide implementation methods and tools for coal mine risk management and control, and data collected has reference significance for other enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's policies about reducing carbon emissions mainly focus on saving energy and reducing pollutant emissions. However, the carbon emissions of the logistics industry remain high. Thus, logistics companies should not only reduce distribution costs, but also consider the impact of carbon emissions when planning distribution routes. This paper studies the supermarket delivery distribution route planning problem considering carbon emissions. Aiming at the lowest economic operating cost composed of fixed cost, driving cost, and carbon emission cost, we propose a grey wolf optimized genetic algorithm to generate delivery route plans, where the social rank and hunting behavior of the grey wolf optimization algorithm are integrated into the selection operation of the genetic algorithm. Finally, a real case of a large third-party logistics enterprise in Beijing is studied. The case study results verify the effectiveness and applicability of the model and algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Semi-variable Coefficient Spatial Lag Model (SVC-SLM) not only addresses the "dimension disaster" associated with the Varying Coefficient Spatial Lag Model(VC-SLM), but also overcomes the non-linear problem of the variable coefficient, and fully explores the hidden information of the model. In this paper, INLA is firstly used to estimate the parameters of (SVC-SLM) by using B-spline to deal with the non-parametric terms, and the comparative experimental results show that the INLA algorithm is much better than MCMCINLA in terms of both time efficiency and estimation accuracy. For the problem of identifying the constant coefficient terms in the SVC-SLM, the bootstrap test is given based on the residuals. Taking the PM2.5 data of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2015 to 2020 as an empirical example, parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric perspectives establish three models of Spatial Lag Model (SLM), VC-SLM, SVC-SLM, which explore the relationship between the covariate factors and the level of urbanization as well as their impacts on the concentration of PM2.5 in the context of increasing urbanization; among the three models, the SVC-SLM has the smallest values of DIC and WAIC, indicating that the SVC-SLM is optimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest pests and diseases can diminish forest biodiversity, damage forest ecosystem functions, and have an impact on water conservation. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the interaction mechanism between plants and pests. In this paper, the prevention and control of a specific pest—namely the larva of Paranthrene tabaniformis (Rott.) (hereinafter referred to as larva)—are studied. Based on the invasion mechanism of the larva in poplar, we establish a delayed differential equation and analyze the existence and stability of equilibria. Next, we assess the existence of a Hopf bifurcation to determine the range of parameters that ensures that the equilibria are stable. Then, we select a set of parameters to verify the results of the stability analysis. Finally, we provide biological explanations and effective theoretical control methods for poplar pests and diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government clearly put forward a strategy to speed up the development of the digital economy in "the 14th Five-Year" Plan, which will become the booster of China's development. China has a vast territory and the state of development of the digital economy varies greatly across different regions. It is crucial to clarify the reasons for these differences and take measures to narrow them. Therefore, the evaluation and analysis of the current situation are conducive to the further development of the digital economy. Taking 30 provinces (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) of China as the research objects, this paper constructs an index system taking digital infrastructure, digital technology and digital talent as input variables and taking digital industrialization and industrial digitization as output variables. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) cross-efficiency model is constructed to calculate and compare the cross-efficiency of the digital economies in each province. The results show the following: (1) The development efficiency of China's digital economy has generally been low, and there is a large "digital divide" between provinces. (2) The input of digital talents is crucial for the digital economy in order to achieve high output and high efficiency, and high output is often accompanied by high efficiency. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the development of China's digital economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been widely applied to evaluate the performance of banks, enterprises, governments, research institutions, hospitals, and other fields as a non-parametric estimation method for evaluating the relative effectiveness of research objects. However, the composition of its effective frontier surface is based on the input-output data of existing decision units, which makes it challenging to apply the method to predict the future performance level of other decision units. In this paper, the Slack Based Measure (SBM) model in DEA method is used to measure the relative efficiency values of decision units, and then, eleven machine learning models are used to train the absolute efficient frontier to be applied to the performance prediction of new decisions units. To further improve the prediction effect of the models, this paper proposes a training set under the DEA classification method, starting from the training-set sample selection and input feature indicators. In this paper, regression prediction of test set performance based on the training set under different classification combinations is performed, and the prediction effects of proportional relative indicators and absolute number indicators as machine-learning input features are explored. The robustness of the effective frontier surface under the integrated model is verified. An integrated models of DEA and machine learning with better prediction effects is proposed, taking China's regional carbon-dioxide emission (carbon emission) performance prediction as an example. The novelty of this work is mainly as follows: firstly, the integrated model can achieve performance prediction by constructing an effective frontier surface, and the empirical results show that this is a feasible methodological technique. Secondly, two schemes to improve the prediction effectiveness of integrated models are discussed in terms of training set partitioning and feature selection, and the effectiveness of the schemes is demonstrated by using carbon-emission performance prediction as an example. This study has some application value and is a complement to the existing literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green finance is a sustainable force in promoting green development. China's social financing structure determines the key role that green credit plays in sustainable development. Under the dual pressure of future economic downturn and huge capital gaps, it is worth exploring whether to continue promoting green credit that conforms to the long-term market mechanism. From the perspective of Chinese commercial banks, this paper analyzes whether promoting green credit is compatible with the incentives and their profit maximization goals. To this end, the research in this paper is based on the following three aspects: (1) Based on financial analysis, this paper reveals the different pricing of green industries in the capital market and credit market and explains the mechanism through which green credit policies improve the operating conditions of commercial banks; (2) combined with the conclusions from the literature and financial analysis, the influence of different index types on the modeling results is analyzed, and it is determined that the main reasons causing a decline in the return on assets are the excessive expansion of capital and the decline in internal resource-use efficiency; (3) a data envelopment model (more accurately, SBM-DDF) with undesirable outputs is established to dynamically analyze the operating efficiency of Chinese commercial banks, and the role of green credit in improving efficiency is studied. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: if Chinese commercial banks increase their proportion of green credit, they can not only increase their profit scale but also improve and optimize the allocation of their internal resources, thus improving their operating efficiency. The main sample of this study comprises 43 commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Self-rated health (SRH) serves as an important indicator for measuring the physical and mental well-being of older adults, holding significance for their health management and disease prevention. In this paper, we introduce a novel classification method based on oversampling and neural network with the objective of enhancing the accuracy of predict the SRH of older adults. Utilizing data from the 2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we included a total of 6596 participants aged 60 years and above in our analysis. To mitigate the impact of imbalanced data, an improved oversampling was proposed, known as weighted Tomek-links adaptive semi-unsupervised weighted oversampling (WTASUWO). It firstly removes the features that are not relevant to the classification by ReliefF. Consequently, it combines undersampling and oversampling. To improve the prediction accuracy of the classifier, an improved multi-layer perception (IMLP) for predicting the SRH was constructed based on bagging and adjusted learning rate. Referring to the experimental results, WTASUWO can effectively improve the prediction performance of a classifier when being applied on an imbalanced dataset, and the IMLP using WTASUWO achieves a higher accuracy. This method can more objectively and accurately assess the health status and identify factors affecting the SRH of older adults. By mining relevant information related the health status of older adults and constructing the prediction model, we can provide policymakers and healthcare professionals with targeted intervention techniques to focus on the health needs of older adults. Meanwhile, this method provides a practical research basis for improving the health level of older adults in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question of how to effectively alleviate the financial pressure on pension insurance due to the increase in life expectancy has become an important issue in the reform of China's social security system. This paper introduced two life expectancy-related delayed retirement schemes, namely the fixed expected retirement residual life and the fixed life burden ratio. We modeled the financial balance of the employee pension fund and the pension wealth of employees with a dynamic retirement age according to pension policy. Using the population mortality data, the dynamic retirement age under the two schemes was estimated under the stochastic mortality model. Following this, the impact of the two delayed retirement schemes was quantitatively assessed from the perspectives of the financial sustainability of the pension fund and the pension wealth of employees using insurance actuarial methods. This study found that the two life expectancy-related delayed retirement schemes have obvious effects on reducing the gap between the income and expenditure of the pension fund and increasing the pension wealth of employees. Moreover, it found that the fixed expected retirement residual life program contributes more than the fixed life burden ratio program to improve the financial sustainability of the pension fund and the pension wealth benefits of employees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the behavior of coal companies and miners under the government's safety special rectification action is significant for maintaining social stability. In this paper, we constructed a dynamic evolutionary game model involving the government, coal companies, and miners. We analyzed the asymptotic stability conditions of the behavioral strategies of the participants in the game through phase diagrams and conducted a simulation analysis using Matlab R2021b to explore the impact of the key parameters in the model on the strategic choices of the game participants. The research findings indicated: (1) intricate interactive dynamics exist among the three stakeholders in safety rectification endeavors, with diverse intervention strategies manifesting varying impacts on participants' conduct and outcomes; (2) setting reasonable reward and punishment mechanisms for safety behaviors by the government toward coal companies and miners helps to increase the probability of both choosing proactive safety behaviors. Coal companies that set reasonable reward and punishment mechanisms for the safety behaviors of miners can promote miners' willingness to cooperate. Additionally, reducing safety rectification costs and enhancing the social reputation benefits of safety rectification can facilitate the optimal strategic choices of the three parties; and (3) the simulation analysis results corroborate the conclusions on the stability of strategies across all stakeholders, affirming the validity of the research outcomes and furnishing pertinent recommendations for enhancing the safety rectification framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Group train operation (GTO) applications have reduced the tracking intervals for overloaded trains, and can affect the efficiency of rail transport. In this paper, we first analyze the differences between GTO and traditional operation (TO). A new mathematical model and simulated annealing algorithm are then used to study the problem of mixed group train operation. The optimization objective of this model is to maximize the transportation volume of special heavy-haul railway lines within the optimization period. The main constraint conditions are extracted from the maintenance time, the minimum ratio of freight volume, and the committed arrival time at each station. A simulated annealing algorithm is constructed to generate the mixed GTO plan. Through numerical experiments conducted on actual heavy-haul railway structures, we validate the effectiveness of the proposed model and meta-heuristic algorithm. The results of the first contrastive experiment show that the freight volume for group trains is 37.5% higher than that of traditional trains, and the second experiment shows a 30.6% reduction in the time during which the line is occupied by trains in GTO. These findings provide compelling evidence that GTO can effectively enhance the capacity and reduce the transportation time cost of special heavy-haul railway lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a promising measure to reduce shipping emissions and alleviate air pollution problem, especially in coastal areas. Currently, the lack of a complete infrastructure system is preventing the extensive application of dual-fueled ships that are mainly LNG-powered. Given that groups of LNG bunkering stations are under establishment in various countries and areas, the construction plan becomes critical. In this paper, we focus on the LNG bunkering station deployment problem, which identifies the locations of the stations to be built. A large-scale case study of China's container shipping network was conducted. The problem scale of this case paper exceeds those in previous academic studies. Thus, this study better validates the model and solution method proposed than numerical experiments that are randomly generated. Sensitive analyses on the LNG price, bunkering station construction costs, and total budget were carried out. The results yielded provide practical suggestions and managerial insights for the competent department. In addition to building a complete bunkering system, subsidies to ship operators for consuming LNG and higher production efficiency in bunkering station construction also help promote the application of LNG as marine fuel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Management consulting (MC) has been heavily involved in emerging business opportunities in mainland China. However, there are no well-known local MC project management models to help evaluate whether an MC project can be successful or not. This paper reports a model for the self-assessment of management consulting projects, which has been validated by 15 experts and 13 cases. The new model, with seven factors that are critical to the success of MC projects, was developed from a literature review. The model was then verified by developing a questionnaire that was sent to 15 experts and using Dempster–Shafer theory to obtain the weight of each part of the model. The model was applied to 13 real cases to verify its effectiveness in evaluating an MC project. This new MC model can help consulting teams to conduct assessments in the early and middle stages, and evaluate in the late stage, of consulting projects, and also can help teams improve the probability of project success and client satisfaction. It can be used by consultants, client companies, or both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant and composite indices for infectious disease can have implications for developing interventions and public health. This paper presents an investment for developing access to further analysis of the incidence of individual and multiple diseases. This research mainly comprises two steps: first, an automatic and reproducible procedure based on functional data analysis techniques was proposed for analyzing the dynamic properties of each disease; second, orthogonal transformation was adopted for the development of composite indices. Between 2000 and 2019, nineteen class B notifiable diseases in China were collected for this study from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The study facilitates the probing of underlying information about the dynamics from discrete incidence rates of each disease through the procedure, and it is also possible to obtain similarities and differences about diseases in detail by combining the derivative features. There has been great success in intervening in the majority of notifiable diseases in China, like bacterial or amebic dysentery and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, while more efforts are required for some diseases, like AIDS and virus hepatitis. The composite indices were able to reflect a more complex concept by combining individual incidences into a single value, providing a simultaneous reflection for multiple objects, and facilitating disease comparisons accordingly. For the notifiable diseases included in this study, there was superior management of gastro-intestinal infectious diseases and respiratory infectious diseases from the perspective of composite indices. This study developed a methodology for exploring the prevalent properties of infectious diseases. The development of effective and reliable analytical methods provides special insight into infectious diseases' common dynamics and properties and has implications for the effective intervention of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The partial correlation coefficient (Pcor) is a vital statistical tool employed across various scientific domains to decipher intricate relationships and reveal inherent mechanisms. However, existing methods for estimating Pcor often overlook its accurate calculation. In response, this paper introduces a minimum residual sum of squares Pcor estimation method (MRSS), a high-precision approach tailored for high-dimensional scenarios. Notably, the MRSS algorithm reduces the estimation bias encountered with positive Pcor. Through simulations on high-dimensional data, encompassing both sparse and non-sparse conditions, MRSS consistently mitigates the arithmetic bias for positive Pcors, surpassing other algorithms discussed. For instance, for large sample sizes ( n ≥ 100 ) with Pcor > 0, the MRSS algorithm reduces the MSE and RMSE by about 30–70% compared to other algorithms. The robustness and stability of the MRSS algorithm is demonstrated by the sensitivity analysis with variance and sparsity parameters. Stocks data in China's A-share market are employed to showcase the MRSS methodology's practicality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geostatistics data in regions always have highly spatial heterogeneous, yet the regional features of the data itself cannot be ignored. In this paper, a novel latent Bayesian spatial model is proposed, which incorporates the spatial dependence of different subjects and the spatial random effects to further analysis the influence of spatial effect. The model is verified to be compatible with the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) framework and is fitted using INLA and stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE). The posterior marginal distribution of parameters is estimated with high precision. Additionally, a practical application of the model is presented using tuberculosis (TB) incidence data in China from 2015 to 2019. The results show that the fitting accuracy of our model is higher than the general Bayesian spatial model using INLA-SPDE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest pests and diseases have been seriously threatening ecological security. Effective prevention and control of such threats can extend the growth cycle of forest trees and increase the amount of forest carbon sink, which makes a contribution to achieving China's goal of "emission peak and carbon neutrality". In this paper, based on the insect-vector populations (this refers to Monochamus alternatus, which is the main vector in Asia) in pine wilt disease, we establish a two-dimensional delay differential equation model to investigate disease control and the impact of time delay on the effectiveness of it. Then, we analyze the existence and stability of the equilibrium of the system and the existence of Hopf bifurcation, derive the normal form of Hopf bifurcation by using a multiple time scales method, and conduct numerical simulations with realistic parameters to verify the correctness of the theoretical analysis. Eventually, according to theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, some specific suggestions are put forward for prevention and control of pine wilt disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the factors influencing the passenger flow of rail transit stations in Shanghai of China are studied by using the entropy weight-grey correlation model. The model assumptions and the corresponding variables are proposed, including traffic accessibility, built environment, regional characteristics of the district to which the rail transit station belongs, conditions of the station and spatial location, which affect the passenger flow of rail transit stations. Based on the assumptions and the variables, the entropy weight-grey correlation model for analyzing the passenger flow of urban rail transit stations is presented. By collecting the data of passenger flow of rail transit stations and corresponding influencing factors in Shanghai, the results of the entropy weight-grey correlation model are obtained. It is shown that the influencing factors, such as the distances from the rail transit station to the adjacent third-class hospital and the adjacent large commercial plazas, district committees, parking areas and the transaction price of important plots, and the gross output value of the tertiary industry, have significant impacts on the passenger flow of a subway station. Finally, some suggestions are proposed for the local governments to formulate improved policies for rail transit development. The conclusions can provide a reference for the development of rail transit in other large cities and countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a large volume of literature in international business on multinationality. There is an equally large volume of literature in finance on stock price crash risk. However, very few studies have attempted to provide a link between these two research areas. Using an unbalanced panel data consisting of 473 multinational corporations (MNCs) publicly listed in the Chinese stock markets during 2004 to 2020, this paper is one of the first to empirically investigate whether and to what extent multinationality affects stock price crash risk. The paper finds strong evidence that multinational operation is negatively related to stock price crash risk. In addition, MNCs with better corporate governance quality experience larger decline in stock price crash risk when the degree of multinationality increases. Furthermore, MNCs with higher stock market liquidity experience lower crash risk. An important implication is that companies should strengthen their corporate governance and market liquidity while "going global". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, due to the growth in machine learning and data mining, for scheduling applications in China's industrial intelligence, we are quite fortunate to witness a paradigm of evolutionary scheduling via learning, which includes a new tool of evolutionary transfer optimization (ETO). As a new subset in ETO, single-objective to multi-objective/many-objective optimization (SMO) acts as a powerful, abstract and general framework with wide industrial applications like shop scheduling and vehicle routing. In this paper, we focus on the general mechanism of selection that selects or gathers elite and high potential solutions towards gathering/transferring strength from single-objective problems, or gathering/transferring storms of knowledge from solved tasks. Extensive studies in vehicle routing problems with time windows (VRPTW) on well-studied benchmarks validate the great universality of the SMO framework. Our investigations (1) contribute to a deep understanding of SMO, (2) enrich the classical and fundamental theory of building blocks for genetic algorithms and memetic algorithms, and (3) provide a completive and potential solution for VRPTW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By constructing a technology spillover connectedness index and connectedness matrix, this paper studies the technology spillover connectedness among innovation agents in China from the perspective of network topology. An empirical study based on invention patent data finds that there is noticeable technology spillover connectedness among the six innovation agents: central enterprises, other domestic enterprises, universities and scientific research institutes, troops, individuals and other organizations, and foreign-funded enterprises. Other domestic enterprises are the hub of technology spillover connectedness among these agents, while foreign-funded enterprises play a limited role. The study of further subdividing foreign-funded enterprises according to their sources finds that the United States, South Korea, and Japan are the centers of technology spillover connectedness in China. The dynamic evolution of technology spillover connectedness shows that the total technology spillover connectedness among innovation agents presents an obvious downward trend, which is closely related to the complex and changeable international economic situation and the uncertainty of China's economic policy in recent years. This paper concludes with insights into how China uses the spillover connectedness among innovation agents to spur agents' innovation performance and promote the nation's economic growth and competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The achievement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets requires the adjustment of the energy structure, in which the dual-carbon progress of the power industry will directly affect the realization process of the goal. In such terms, an accurate demand forecast is imperative for the government and enterprises' decision makers to develop an optimal strategy for electric energy planning work in advance. According to the data of the whole social electricity consumption in Jiangsu Province of China from 2015 to 2019, this paper uses the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm to calculate the fractional-order r of the FGM (1, 1) model and establishes a metabolic FGM (1, 1) model to predict the whole social electricity consumption in Jiangsu Province of China from 2020 to 2023. The results show that in the next few years the whole social electricity consumption in Jiangsu Province will show a growth trend, but the growth rate will slow down generally. It can be seen that the prediction accuracy of the metabolic FGM (1, 1) model is higher than that of the GM (1, 1) and FGM (1, 1) models. In addition, the paper analyzes the reasons for the changes in the whole society electricity consumption in Jiangsu Province of China and provides support for government decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fintech has not changed the nature and risk attributes of financial business. Its openness, interoperability, and other characteristics trigger the concealment, infectivity, universality and sudden characteristics of financial risk more obviously, and the potential systemic risk more complexly. This paper adopts fuzzy set analysis to conduct a comprehensive review of Fintech risk. It is found that the technology risk, moral hazard and legal risk, with a weight of up to 80%, are the dominant factors affecting the Fintech risk, while other prominent credit risk, market risk and operational risk in the traditional financial field account for a small proportion, but they still cannot be ignored. The research of this paper enriches the relevant research on the quantification of Fintech risk, and helps to strengthen risk prevention from the aspect of enhancing the safety of Fintech infrastructure, improving the legal system, sound the regulatory framework and strengthening industry self-discipline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing the working conditions of a dam using safety monitoring indices (SMIs) is a relatively intuitive and effective method for dam safety evaluation. Therefore, a reasonable and accurate method for determining the SMIs of a dam is of vital importance for dam safety assessment. However, the current methods for determining the SMIs of dams, especially roller-compacted concrete (RCC) dams, have many shortcomings, such as ignoring the construction process of the dam, the coupling effect among multiple physical fields, etc. In this paper, a novel SMI determination method considering the seepage–stress coupling effects was proposed for RCC dams with the assistance of a constructed seepage and stress coupling model so as to address the deficiency of existing RCC dams in determining SMIs. The coupled mathematical model was developed in COMSOL Multiphysics to establish a finite element analysis model of an RCC gravity dam in Henan Province, China. Moreover, the seepage anisotropy of the RCC construction layers was also considered in the model. Finally, the seepage, stress, and deformation characteristics of the RCC dam were analyzed based on the model, and the seepage and deformation SMIs of the dam were determined and compared with traditional methods. The results show that seepage, stress, and displacement fields are distributed similarly for both coupled and uncoupled models. However, in contrast to the uncoupled model, the hydraulic head contour distribution is more dispersed in the coupled model. Additionally, the stress and displacement simulated by the coupled model increase at different rates, with a more pronounced stress concentration near the dam heel. Comparing the seepage and stress SMIs of RCC dam obtained from different methods, it was found that the indices of dam seepage discharge and crest displacement that are calculated by considering the seepage–stress coupling effect and anisotropic characteristics of RCC construction layers are 34.78% and 31.98% lower than results obtained by ignoring these two effects, respectively. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the seepage–stress coupling effect and the anisotropic characteristics of RCC when determining the SMIs for RCC dams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on government service quality can help ensure the success of digital government services and has been the focus of numerous studies that proposed different frameworks and approaches. Most of the existing studies are based on traditional researcher-led methods, which struggle to capture the needs of citizens. In this paper, a citizen-feedback-based analysis framework was proposed to explore citizen demands and analyze the service quality of digital government. Citizen feedback data are a direct expression of citizens' demands, so the citizen-feedback-based framework can help to obtain more targeted management insights and improve citizen satisfaction. Efficient machine learning methods used in the framework make data collection and processing more efficient, especially for large-scale internet data. With the crawled user feedback data from the Q&A e-government portal of Luzhou, Sichuan Province, China, we conducted experiments on the proposed framework to verify its feasibility. From citizens' online feedback on Q&A services, we extracted five service quality factors: efficiency, quality, attitude, compliance, and execution of response. The analysis of five service quality factors provides some management insights, which can provide a guide for improvements in Q&A services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on China's summary of three years of experience and measures in the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic, we have built a COVID-19 prevention and control model integrating health and medical detection, big data information technology to track the trend of the epidemic throughout the whole process, isolation of key epidemic areas, and dynamic prevention and control management throughout the whole process. This model provides a simple, feasible, and theoretically reliable prevention and control model for future large-scale infectious disease prevention and control. The Lyapnov functional method is replaced by the global exponential attractor theory, which provides a new mathematical method for studying the global stability of the multi parameter, multi variable infectious disease prevention and control system. We extracted mathematical methods and models suitable for non-mathematical infectious disease researchers from profound and difficult to understand mathematical theories. Using the results of the global exponential Attractor theory obtained in this paper, we studied the global dynamics of the COVID-19 model with an epidemiological investigation. The results demonstrated that the non-constant disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when λ * < 0 , and the COVID-19 epidemic is persisting uniformly when λ * > 0 . In order to understand the impact of the epidemiological investigation under different prevention and control stages in China, we compare the control effects of COVID-19 under different levels of epidemiological investigation policies. We visually demonstrate the global stability and global exponential attractiveness of the COVID-19 model with transferors between regions and epidemiological investigation in a temporal-spatial heterogeneous environment with the help of numerical simulations. We find that the epidemiological investigation really has a significant effect on the prevention and control of the epidemic situation, and we can also intuitively observe the relationship between the flow of people (including tourism, shopping, work and so on) and epidemiological investigation policies. Our model is adapted to different stages of prevention and control; the emergency "circuit breaker" mechanism of the model is also consistent with actual prevention and control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the global outbreak of COVID-19, the panic-buying incidents triggered by the variants of the Omicron strain have severely affected the normal social order. This paper considers the complex interest game and interactive relationship among multiple subjects in the mass-panic buying event caused by rumors and constructs a three-party evolution game model of local government, rumor-monger, and public. The strategy-selection process of each subject based on evolutionary game theory is studied, and the strategy selection of three game subjects in different situations and related influencing factors are analyzed. Taking the example of the montmorillonite powder panic buying caused by the XBB virus strain rumor in China, the evolutionary game model constructed in this study is simulated and analyzed. The study shows that the evolutionary process of the mass panic-buying event is characterized by six stages: the initial stage; the outbreak stage; the spread stage; the climax stage; the relief stage; and the recovery stage. There are four stable points in the evolutionary game of the three game subjects, namely (no intervention, no rumor, no panic buying), (no intervention, rumor, no panic buying), (intervention, no rumor, no panic buying), and (intervention, rumor, no panic buying). The strategy of government intervention will be adjusted according to the strategy selection of the public and the rumor-monger. Under the mechanism of reward and punishment of the higher-level government, increasing the punishment and reward intensity of the higher-level government will promote the local government to intervene in the rumor-mongering event faster, but increasing the reward intensity has a more significant impact on the intervention behavior of the local government than punishment, and increasing punishment intensity has a more significant impact on the non-rumor-mongering behavior of the rumor-monger than reward. The parameters of social risk-bearing cost, risk transmission coefficient, rumor-mongering income and cost, and public drug purchase cost have different degrees of influence on the evolutionary behavior of game subjects. Therefore, this study provides new ideas for effectively responding to mass panic buying events in the context of public emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) model with fixed effects is extended to a non-parametric form by relaxing the linear or nonlinear parameter structure of explanatory variables. The non-parametric spatial dynamic panel data (NSDPD) model with fixed effects not only retains the advantages of the SDPD model which can deal with spatial and/or temporal individual characteristics and spatio-temporal dependencies but also solves the limitation that may lead to specification errors. It also enhances the flexibility and practicability of the spatial econometric model. Since the model to be estimated contains unknown functions, we propose this profile maximum likelihood (PML) method to solve the problem of the incidental parameters in the estimation. Under the assumption that the spatial coefficients are known, we first eliminate the influence of the time effect by substitution and then use the local polynomial estimation to preliminarily estimate the unknown function so as to transform the model into the parametric form for solving. We derive the asymptotic properties of PMLEs and find that under certain regularity conditions, both parametric and non-parametric estimators are consistent. The Monte Carlo results show that the estimators have good finite sample performance. We illustrate the empirical relevance of the model by applying it to examine the impact of tourism dynamics on economic development in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In landslide disaster warning, a variety of monitoring and warning methods are commonly adopted. However, most monitoring and warning methods cannot provide information in advance, and serious losses are often caused when landslides occur. To advance the warning time before a landslide, an innovative advance landslide prediction and warning model based on a stacking fusion algorithm using Baishuihe landslide data is proposed in this paper. The Baishuihe landslide area is characterized by unique soil and is in the Three Gorges region of China, with a subtropical monsoon climate. Based on Baishuihe historical data and real-time monitoring of the landslide state, four warning level thresholds and trigger conditions for each warning level are established. The model effectively integrates the results of multiple prediction and warning submodels to provide predictions and advance warnings through the fusion of two stacking learning layers. The possibility that a risk priority strategy can be used as a substitute for the stacking model is also discussed. Finally, an experimental simulation verifies that the proposed improved model can not only provide advance landslide warning but also effectively reduce the frequency of false warnings and mitigate the issues of traditional single models. The stacking model can effectively support disaster prevention and reduction and provide a scientific basis for land use management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Out-of-gauge trains are trains with loading freight that exceeds the loading limitation border. Considering collision avoidance, the out-of-gauge trains have speed restriction of their own, and the trains running on the parallel track. Therefore, it is necessary to execute a train rescheduling procedure to rearrange the train paths of the out-of-gauge trains and the affected trains based on the fundamental timetable. For rescheduling the timetable, considering the blockades and the speed restrictions caused by the out-of-gauge trains, this paper proposed a time-space-state network representation for describing the out-of-gauge train rescheduling problem. A novel concept, speed allowance, is introduced to describe the train speed restriction due to the out-of-gauge trains. An integer programming model based on the time-space network is proposed to minimize the total train delay when running the out-of-gauge trains. The model can be solved by the rolling-time horizon approach for reducing computational time. A numerical example is conducted based on the conventional railway in China, demonstrating the solution performance of the model and the practical use of the methodology. Gurobi solver cannot obtain an optimal solution within 1 h when the planning-time horizon is greater than 120 min. With the rolling-time horizon approach, the rescheduled timetable can be obtained within 124 s for the 300 min planning-time horizon using 180 min rolling-time window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling the effects and paths of systemic financial risk contagion is significant for financial stability. This paper focuses on China's systemic financial risk from the perspective of dynamic networks. First, we construct a high-dimensional dynamic financial network model to capture risk contagion effects. Second, considering the ripple effect of financial risk contagion, we introduce and improve the basic model of the ripple-spreading network. Finally, small- and medium-sized banks and economic policy uncertainty are selected as the internal and external contagion source, respectively, to simulate the risk of ripple-spreading paths. The results show that financial contagion is more likely to occur within the same industry. The contagion triggered by internal shock first spreads within the same industry, and then to other industries. The contagion triggered by external shock first spreads to banks, then to diversified financial institutions, securities and insurance institutions, successively. Moreover, some small- and medium-sized commercial banks show strong abilities to spread risk ripples. The securities industry is the intermediary layer of the ripple network and plays a leading role in the ripple-spreading process. Therefore, systemic financial risk regulation should focus not only on large financial institutions but also on financial institutions with strong ripple effects. During major risk events, isolating risk intermediary nodes can cut off the paths of risk contagion and mitigate the impact on the whole financial system effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies quantile regression for spatial panel data models with varying coefficients, taking the time and location effects of the impacts of the covariates into account, i.e., the implications of covariates may change over time and location. Smoothing methods are employed for approximating varying coefficients, including B-spline and local polynomial approximation. A fixed-effects quantile regression (FEQR) estimator is typically biased in the presence of the spatial lag variable. The wild bootstrap method is employed to attenuate the estimation bias. Simulations are conducted to study the performance of the proposed method and show that the proposed methods are stable and efficient. Further, the estimators based on the B-spline method perform much better than those of the local polynomial approximation method, especially for location-varying coefficients. Real data about economic development in China are also analyzed to illustrate application of the proposed procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the operational period, unexpected upstream deformation has been observed in several super-high arch dams located in the alpine and gorge regions. In addition, the phenomenon of the downstream dam deformation monitoring values being apparently smaller than the numerical simulation results appears in some super-high arch dams. This paper focuses on the genetic mechanism of a super-high arch dam's special deformation characteristics. The finite element method (FEM) was used to analyze the effects of solar radiation, valley contraction, and overhanging on super-high arch dam's deformation behavior. First, the influences of solar radiation on the temperature field and deformation characteristics of the super-high arch dam under the shading effects of the mountain and the dam body were investigated. Second, the impacts of valley contraction on the deformation characteristics of the super-high arch dam during the storage period were studied. Subsequently, the impact of the overhanging effect on the super-high arch dam's deformation was explored. Finally, a case study was conducted on the basis of the Jinping I super-high arch dam to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed analytical method. It is indicated that the dam's special deformation can be explained reasonably. Above all, in order to accurately analyze and predict the deformation characteristics of super high-arch dams in the alpine and gorge regions of Southwest China, solar radiation, valley contraction, and the dam-overhanging effect need to be considered as influencing factors of dam deformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper establishes a shareholder-stock bipartite network based on the data of large shareholders' shareholding in the Shanghai A-share market of China in 2021. Based on the shareholder-stock bipartite network, the statistically validated network model is applied to establish a shareholder projected network and a stock projected network, whose structural characteristics can intuitively reveal the overlapping portfolios among different shareholders, as well as shareholder allocation structures among different stocks. The degree of nodes in the shareholder projected network obeys the power law distribution, the network aggregation coefficient is large, while the degree of most nodes in the stock projected network is small and the network aggregation coefficient is low. Furthermore, the two projected networks' community structures are analyzed, respectively. Most of the communities in the shareholder projected network and stock projected network are small-scaled, indicating that the majority of large shareholders hold different shares from each other, and the investment portfolios of large shareholders in different stocks are also significantly different. Finally, by comparing the stock projected sub-network obtained from the shareholder-stock bipartite sub-network in which the degree of shareholder nodes is 2 and the original stock projected network, the effectiveness of the statistically validated network model, and the community division method on the research of the shareholder-stock bipartite network are further verified. These results have important implications for understanding the investment behavior of large shareholders in the stock market and contribute to developing investment strategies and risk management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]