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For many centuries, paper was considered the main support for recording cultural achievements all over the world. Archives represent the historical memory of our past, and the book conservation represents one main concern since many books and documents kept in libraries and archives are at risk because of their fragility. The use of portable, not destructive technique like NIR μ-Raman spectroscopy represents a valid instrument for monitoring the documentary heritage. In the present study, we investigated the degradation process, associated to the polymers breaking, in order to propose a successful kinetic model for determining the ageing time of cellulose. We compared the calculated results with respect to both experimental samples and literature data, covering a period of seven centuries, from XV to XXI centuries. Proposed model starts directly from Raman spectra, in particular by monitoring the band at 1100 cm − 1 ascribed to C-O-C inter-monomers bond, whose relative intensity is related to the cellulose chain length. We obtained a very good agreement with the experimental data with 8% of accuracy. Finally, with the help of Density Functional Theory (DFT) simulations, we confirmed our model by studying the structure and the grade of cellulose crystallinity in the paper. In particular, the reverse trend of the band at 900 cm − 1 , related to the crystallinity grade of the cellulose, and the band at 1100 cm − 1 , as a function of the dimer unit cell structure, supported the kinetic model, suggesting a shear stress like effect as the origin of the cellulose chain length decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]