Search

Corporate image, European Emission Trading System and Environmental Regulations, encourage pulp industry to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Kraft pulp mills produce CO2 mainly in combustion processes. The largest sources are the recovery boiler, the biomass boiler, and the lime kiln. Due to utilizing mostly biomass-based fuels, the CO2 is largely biogenic. Capture and storage of CO2 (CCS) could offer pulp and paper industry the possibility to act as site for negative CO2 emissions. In addition, captured biogenic CO2 can be used as a raw material for bioproducts. Possibilities for CO2 utilization include tall oil manufacturing, lignin extraction, and production of precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC), depending on local conditions and mill-specific details. In this study, total biomass-based CO2 capture and storage potential (BECCS) and potential to implement capture and utilization of biomass-based CO2 (BECCU) in kraft pulp mills were estimated by analyzing the impacts of the processes on the operation of two modern reference mills, a Nordic softwood kraft pulp mill with integrated paper production and a Southern eucalyptus kraft pulp mill. CO2 capture is energy-intensive, and thus the effects on the energy balances of the mills were estimated. When papermaking is integrated in the mill operations, energy adequacy can be a limiting factor for carbon capture implementation. Global carbon capture potential was estimated based on pulp production data. Kraft pulp mills have notable CO2 capture potential, while the on-site utilization potential using currently available technologies is lower. The future of these processes depends on technology development, desire to reuse CO2, and prospective changes in legislation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage (BECCS) is a promising negative emission technology (NET). When using sustainably produced biomass as fuel, BECCS allows the production of power and heat with negative CO2 emissions. The main technical challenges hindering the deployment of BECCS technologies include energy penalties associated with the capture process. This work evaluates the performance of an advanced CO2 capture technology, chemical looping with oxygen uncoupling (CLOU), replacing a conventional fluidized bed boiler in the power boiler role in a large, modern integrated pulp and paper mill. Results from a MATLAB/Simulink reactor model were incorporated in a plant and integration model developed in a commercial process simulation software to quantify the performance of the CLOU-integrated cogeneration plant. The results show that in this specific application, the typically already low efficiency penalty of CLOU-based carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems could be eliminated entirely, and actually even a very small efficiency gain could be obtained. The highly efficient operation is possible due to the high moisture and hydrogen contents of the biomass and the separation of combustion products and excess air streams in the CLOU process; this provides an opportunity to recover a significant amount of heat by flue gas condensation at a higher temperature level than what is possible in a conventional boiler. Together with abundant low-temperature heat sinks available at the pulp and paper application allows freeing a considerable amount of low-pressure steam for expansion in the condensing turbine. The resulting increase in gross generator output proved enough to not only match, but very slightly exceed the approximately 18 MW parasitic load introduced by the CLOU system in comparison to the conventional boiler. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyse role of forest industry in meeting energy and climate targets that aim to mitigating global change. Finland as an important forest industry country with the ambitious target of becoming carbon neutral by 2035 is selected to a target county. This study aims to present a plausible assessment of the future of the Finnish forest industry until 2035 based on literature and a scenario building approach. The focus is on energy use and fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The results suggest that electricity consumption will decrease, whereas electricity production will increase, which indicates that forest industry can provide more renewable electricity to the grid. Heat consumption may even increase as a result from building new biorefineries, but those mills can most probably meet their heat demand by combusting biofuels. Changes in forest industry's direct fossil CO2 emissions can reduce Finnish fossil CO2 emissions 2─4% in comparison to 2018. Biofuels production is likely to rise, but the extent remains to be seen. It is concluded that the Finnish forest industry can contribute significantly to meeting national climate policy targets, and forest industry in general can play a role in mitigating global change. Additionally, it was found that development of the Finnish forest industry will probably be limited by the requirement for sustainable wood harvesting, which may also be a problem for other forest industry countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the strong link between the implementation of a GHG emission mitigation policy and the reduction of human health risk related to air pollution in Russia. The human health risk analysis method was introduced in Russia in the late 1990s. After a few pilot studies, this method has been in studies in several Russian cities with high populations and high air pollution. These studies demonstrate that among the hundreds of pollutants controlled by Russian law, a handful are responsible for up to 90% of human health risk from air pollution (PM$_{10}$ and SO$_{2}$ contribute the most). Fossil fuel combustion is the main source of the aforementioned conventional pollutants. This paper provides an overview of local ancillary benefits studies in selected Russian cities. The countrywide energy study presented in this paper proves that reduction of GHG emissions in the power generation sector would result in the reduction of these conventional pollutants in all regions. A major challenge for Russia in this process is a potential increase of the share of coal in the fuel mix. Such a change would result in the additional loss of 118,000 years of life countrywide. In the Central and Volgo-Viatsky regions additional mortality could increase by more than 30%. As a result of a GHG mitigation policy that avoided an increase in the coal share of the fuel mix could produce ancillary benefits in 2010 around $60 per ton of CO2 emission reduction in power sector alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green roofs contribute to both climate change adaptation and mitigation. Promoting green roofs is thus a key element in urban strategies to address climate change. How to actually promote green roofs, however, has so far proven elusive: attempts to link specific policy instruments to a more or less successful diffusion of green roofs have been few and far between. The present paper relies on institutional economics to advance the present understanding of the link between policy instruments and green roofs. It argues that different green roofs are confronted with different social dilemmas, and thus require different policy instruments. Specifically, small green roofs face a free-rider problem, which is best addressed through regulations and incentives. Large green roofs face instead a collective action problem, which is best addressed through communications and network-building. This perspective is tested empirically through a comparative analysis of 18 global cities on the forefront in the promotion of green roofs. The policy instruments observed in these cities match with the theoretical expectations laid down in the paper. Implications emerge for both policy and research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of wood products is often promoted as a climate change mitigation option to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. In previous literature, we identified longevity and recycling rate as two determining factors that influence the carbon stock in wood products, but no studies have predicted the effect of improved wood use on carbon storage over time. In this study, we aimed at evaluating changes in the lifespan and the recycling rate as two options for enhancing carbon stock in wood products for different time horizons. We first explored the behaviour over time of both factors in a theoretical simulation, and then calculated their effect for the European wood sector of the future. The theoretical simulation shows that the carbon stock in wood products increases linearly when increasing the average lifespan of wood products and exponentially when improving the recycling rate. The emissions savings under the current use of wood products in Europe in 2030 were estimated at 57.65 Mt carbon dioxide (CO) per year. This amount could be increased 5 Mt CO if average lifespan increased 19.54 % or if recycling rate increased 20.92 % in 2017. However, the combination of both strategies could increase the emissions saving almost 5 Mt CO more by 2030. Incrementing recycling rate of paper and paperboard is the best short-term strategy (2030) to reduce emissions, but elongating average lifespan of wood-based panels is a better strategy for longer term periods (2046). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mitigation of climate change demands a transition to low-carbon power generation systems. To identify effective transition strategies and accelerate the transition process, decision-makers require comprehensive information that can best be obtained through an evaluation of transition trajectories. However, little work has been done to develop comprehensive analysis systems that can evaluate this process. This study presents an indicator system to evaluate power system transitions that include 13 indicators capturing the technical, economic, environmental and policy dimensions. To test its efficacy, the dynamic target framework is applied to the power system transition in China, and comparisons are drawn against global market leaders such as Germany, the USA and Japan. This paper finds that the framework enables a more rigorous comparative analysis of power system transitions between countries than is currently offered by the application of piecemeal indicators. This framework complements contextually rich qualitative case studies. Empirical analysis shows that China's transition trajectory has been convoluted because of its more severe environmental restrictions and policy guidance. Cooperation in the intelligent transition of the global power system can promote China's power system transition. This approach should foster both the mitigation of climate change and adaptation to China's resource constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, the power industry contributes significantly to carbon emissions, reducing carbon emissions in this industry is conducive to China's adaptation and mitigation of climate change. Researches on green and low-carbon power have attracted increasing attention. In this paper, we analyze and compare the carbon emissions from thermal power sector in 30 Chinese provinces, divided into three main regions. Based on the panel data over the period 2002–2016, we use a slacks-based measurement (SBM) model to measure the carbon emission efficiency of China's power sector. The results show that the carbon emission efficiency of the system is relatively low, with marked differences among regions. Based on the Moran's I, we further found spatial heterogeneity in carbon emission efficiency of provincial power sector. Policies for adaptation and mitigation of climate change should have regional differences. Interregional collaboration also plays a key role in adapting to and mitigating climate change. For China, it is an important issue to develop clean coal-fired power generation and vigorously develop renewable energy. From a global perspective, energy transformation needs to be continuously promoted. Promoting low-carbon transformation of global energy system requires deep technical cooperation and synergy. Global mitigation strategy should focus on the orientation of structural reform and constantly optimize the energy structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whilst mitigation has dominated policy and research agendas in recent years there is an increasing recognition that communities also need to be preparing for change that is unavoidable, partially a consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases already emitted to the atmosphere. The perceived need for adaptation has also received additional impetus through the high public profile now given to the impacts of current day weather variability, particularly the significant economic and social costs associated with recent extreme events. However, being a relatively new focus for both research and policy communities; practical evidence of the extent, feasibility, efficiency, and cost effectiveness of potential adaptation options remains largely lacking. In response, this paper seeks to make a contribution to this embryonic but evolving knowledge base by considering the theoretical underpinnings of adaptation and ultimately how this translates into practice 'in the real world'. The analytical commentary, based on a bottom-up approach involving iterative engagement with key stakeholders and experts, reflects on the identification of measures that are either innovative or examples of good practice in reducing or transferring climate risks, as well as considering those 'enabling' institutional structures and processes that act to support implementation on the ground. The paper concludes by synthesising the key findings to date in order to highlight some of the opportunities for, and barriers to, adaptation activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to examine the mitigation of climate change using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of developing countries. The effects of the CDM on developing countries' efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) pledged under the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France) are investigated. Data analysis reveals that the intensive hosting of CDM projects and the resultant higher marginal abatement costs led to fewer efforts by developing countries to mitigate climate change. A theoretical model from the literature of "low-hanging fruits" is applied to determine if rising prices of the CDM can be expected in the future. The results indicate that the benefits for developing countries must increase so as to keep the CDM attractive for them in an environment where they also have reduction commitments. To further ensure the effectiveness of the CDM under the Paris Agreement, policy should ensure that developing countries actually charge higher prices and, at the same time, contribute adequately to the global goal of GHG reductions. To this end, developing countries should be permitted to demand benefits that lie outside the current scope of the CDM, and non-compliance with their climate targets should also be sanctioned. In addition, fostering sustainable development should become more attractive for developed countries without the CDM, e.g., through sustainability labels, so as to reduce the trade-off for developing countries between the benefits of the CDM and compliance with their commitments to mitigate climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The public promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources coexists in many countries with the recent implementation of emissions trading schemes. As shown by several papers, this coexistence may lead to significant interactions between both instruments, in the form of synergies and conflicts. This paper provides an overview and analysis of the literature on such coexistence and interactions. A major conclusion is that policy measures aiming at exploiting the synergies between both instruments should be implemented. The greatest synergy effects from the use of both instruments take place through appropriate coordination of their targets. Another key finding is that, although some stylised facts can be inferred from the studies, some results from those complex interactions are context-specific since they depend on the design of the instruments in particular countries. In spite of the significant policy implications of such interactions for the effective and cost-effective functioning of both instruments, this is a surprisingly under searched field. It is so concerning, both, theoretical and empirical analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO2), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) with the multi-resolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urban-rural transitioning areas (90–100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission monitoring and mitigation activity under the Paris Climate Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). We highlight the importance of capacity building for EI development and coordinated research efforts of EI, atmospheric observations, and modeling to overcome the challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are fossil fuels with about 66% share of global electricity generation. Despite the challenges it faces today, nuclear energy is considered an effective technology that can be used in mitigating climate change with specific characteristics that underpin the commitment of some countries to maintain it as a future option. Several studies show the effects of investment minimization policies and the replacement of nuclear power plants with renewables. This implies economic impacts on the price of electricity, which increases the use of fossil fuels resulting in health problems related to air pollution and increasing costs to reduce the carbon emitted in the world. This paper addresses a systematic review of the prospects for nuclear energy investments adopted by countries as a strategic option to mitigate climate change and quantifies a range of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission values that can be avoided using as reference the emission factor of power plants at coal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are key actors in reducing both the causes of climate change (mitigation) and its impact (adaptation), and many have developed separate mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures. However, in order to maximize outcomes, both scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrated and synergetic approaches. Unfortunately, related research remains scarce and fragmented, and there is a lack of systematic investigation into the necessary institutional conditions and processes. Against this background, this paper develops a framework to assess and support the joint institutionalization of climate adaptation and mitigation—here called adaptigation—in city administrations. This pioneering framework draws upon four key features of bureaucracies: organizational structure, visions and goals, actors, and technology and tools. Illustrated by pilot applications to the cities of Würzburg (Germany) and Mwanza (Tanzania), the framework provides a robust basis for future research, policy recommendations, and the development of context-specific guidelines for national and local decision-makers and officials. It highlights the importance of (i) clearly defined procedures for the implementation of adaptigation into urban planning processes (e.g., with the active involvement of stakeholders in the form of working groups or roundtable discussions), (ii) locally relevant goals and visions, established in collaboration with stakeholders, and (iii) the creation of mitigation and adaptation structures that are supported by the appropriate level of human resources, both within and outside city administrations. In this context, global, supranational, and national institutions play an important role in supporting institutionalization by providing targeted funding and promoting adaptigation, which requires the development of integrated goals, visions, and legislation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy-duty vehicles contribute a significant and increasing portion of global greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this study is to provide an overview of heavy-duty vehicle efficiency policies in major markets to better inform the global evolution of climate mitigation measures. The paper compiles information from those four nations that have adopted some form of heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy standards-China Japan, United States of America (USA), and Canada-plus the European Union. Despite widespread differences, the study finds that each jurisdiction used simulation modeling to some extent to minimize the cost of chassis-based compliance testing. Further, the study identified several common elements under development for the next round of policies, including (1) how to incorporate trailer manufacturers into existing regulatory structures, (2) how to add new test procedures to fully account for potential benefits from hybrids and advanced transmissions, and (3) how to address the tension between separate test procedures for fuel economy and conventional pollutants. The paper concludes with a discussion of opportunities and challenges for aligning national policies in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will result in dramatic changes to energy and land systems and in turn alter the character of human requirements for water. We employ the global change assessment model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model, to explore the interactions of energy, land, and water systems under combinations of three alternative radiative forcing stabilization levels and two carbon tax regimes. The paper analyzes two important research questions: i) how large may global irrigation water demands become over the next century, and ii) what are the potential impacts of emissions mitigation policies on global irrigation-water withdrawals. We find that increasing population and economic growth could more than double the demand for water for agricultural systems in the absence of climate policy, and policies to mitigate climate change further increase agricultural demands for water. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occur in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions are priced (but not land use change emissions) and are primarily driven by rapid expansion in bio-energy production. Regions such as China, India, and other countries in South and East Asia are likely to experience the greatest increases in water demands. Finally, we test the sensitivity of water withdrawal demands to the share of bio-energy crops under irrigation and conclude that many regions have insufficient space for heavy bio-energy crop irrigation in the future-a result that calls into question the physical possibility of producing the associated biomass energy, especially under climate policy scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biofuels vary greatly in their carbon intensity, depending on the specifics of how they are produced. Policy frameworks are needed to ensure that biofuels actually achieve intended reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Current approaches do not account for important variables during cultivation that influence emissions. Estimating emissions based on biogeochemical models would allow accounting of farm-specific conditions, which in turn provides an incentive for producers to adopt low emissions practices. However, there are substantial uncertainties in the application of biogeochemical models. This paper proposes a policy framework that manages this uncertainty while retaining the ability of the models to account for (and hence incentivize) low emissions practices. The proposed framework is demonstrated on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the cultivation of winter barley. The framework aggregates uncertainties over time, which (1) avoids penalizing producers for uncertainty in weather, (2) allows for a high degree of confidence in the emissions reductions achieved, and (3) attenuates the uncertainty penalties borne by producers within a timescale of several years. Results indicate that with effective management, N2O emissions from feedstock cultivation may be < 5% of the carbon intensity of gasoline, whereas the existing policy approach estimates emissions > 20% of the carbon intensity of gasoline. If these emissions reductions are monetized, the framework can provide up to $0.002 per liter credits (0.8 cents per gallon) to fuel producers, which could incentivize emissions mitigation practices by biofuel feedstock suppliers, such as avoiding fall N application on silty clay loam soils. The conservatism in the current approach fails to incentivize the adoption of biofuels, while the lack of specificity fails to incentivize site-level mitigation practices. Improved uncertainty accounting and consideration of farm-level practices will incentivize mitigation efforts at landscape to global scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low Carbon Society (LCS) has emerged as a holistic approach to reduce carbon (C) emissions that result from human activities. Although there has been successful implementation of the LCS approach in some cities of developed countries, it is more difficult in developing countries like Thailand. The objectives of this paper are to present drivers and barriers affecting the abilities of three regional cities of Thailand to combine LCS activities with their strategies. Lessons learned from this study will allow for sharing these experiences with municipalities in other developing countries. This research was based on interviews of key informants representing state agencies and local public service associations. It was found that no particular driver significantly influenced local government agencies to implement LCS activities. Conversely, there were financial and managerial barriers to implementing (C) reduction activities. This paper identifies the need for more specific and tailor-made assistance to allow urban municipalities to shift towards LCS activities by considering their individual strengths and weaknesses. Moreover, stakeholders' understanding of the advantages of implementing LCS activities within locally governed areas was found to be critical for success. The paper concludes that climate change mitigation activities not only reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also produce tangible benefits such as improvement the quality of life of people. Such an approach can motivate stakeholders to pursue LCS as a shared goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the implications of climate change, and government policies to address it, for countries' fiscal systems at the national level. Given the uncertainties associated with climate change and countries' responses to it, the article can do no more than review and suggest some of the major issues of likely importance for fiscal sustainability and how they might be addressed. First the paper defines fiscal sustainability and addresses some general issues related to countries' attempts to adapt to or mitigate climate change. It then works through a number of more specific issues, discussing policies such as the implementation of environmental taxes or other instruments for the mitigation of climate change. The assessment of the impacts of such policies on fiscal sustainability requires the application of sophisticated economic models, and the paper briefly explores the relative advantages of different modeling approaches in relation to the assessment of fiscal sustainability under policies to mitigate climate change. The major research need identified by the paper is for the development of macroeconomic models that will enable countries identify the wider effects of environmental taxes and help them undertake multi-year budgeting processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to assess how policy goals in relation to the promotion of green growth, energy security, pollution control and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions have been aligned in policies that have been implemented in selected countries during the last decades as a basis for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together in these countries, and in practice a mix of policies reflecting specific priorities and contexts have been pursued. In this way, climate-change mitigation has been aligned with other policy objectives and integrated into broader policy packages, though in many cases specific attention has not been given to the achievement of large GHG emission reductions. Based on these experiences with policy implementation, the paper highlights a number of key coordination and design issues that are pertinent to the successful joint implementation of several energy and climate-change policy goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By 2050, 75 % of the world's population will live in cities and the occurrence of heat wave events might have doubled. Mapping the climate and land use change impact for urban heat events should set the agenda for adaptation planning at the local scale. Literature on urban heat mapping does not reveal a clear indicator to visualise the urban heat impacts that includes consequences of land use and climate changes for planning purposes. This paper introduces a stepwise approach to develop a single complex indicator to map the urban heat impact for local climate adaptation planning processes. Information on climatic drivers and land use characteristics are combined and projected for future land use and climate change impacts. Next, several visualisation techniques are developed to investigate which techniques are most effective to visualise complex information with multiple variables in one visualisation. A usability test is performed to investigate how indicator and map meet the information and communication needs of policy makers. Our findings reveal that it is important to add information on future impacts to set the agenda for adaptation planning at the local scale. Applying cartographic techniques in a map series presentation has proven to be effective to map complex information in a single image and fulfil most of the identified information needs. Based on our finding, we introduce the information enrichment chain as a promising approach to support local adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Desertification is considered a global environmental problem with political and socioeconomic implications. Desertification, exacerbated by climate change, is the largest environmental problem in Chile affecting almost two third of the national territory. This study takes place in a latitudinal gradient of the north-central Chilean drylands, where desertification is a threat to agriculture, livestock and forestry (ALF). In the context of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the implementation of the Chilean National Action Programme (NAP), the country is conducting policies and investing in mitigation strategies to combat land degradation and desertification. The main objective of this paper is the development of an integrative methodological approach using real data of the territorial and socioeconomic indicators. With the proposed methodology we assess the impact of the mitigation and land degradation strategies supported by the ALF promotion agencies in the fight against desertification, projecting different scenarios of change. The data were collected in 2008 in Santiago, Chile. The results of the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) suggest that technical irrigation and the improvement of grasslands and pastures play an important role in the fight against desertification. The results of the model projections are consistent, suggesting that the efforts of the ALF promotion agencies have a positive impact in fighting desertification. Inaction of ALF mitigation strategies would increase desertification. This methodological approach, performed with real data, is a contribution for the development of integrative assessments, for replication and for forthcoming discussions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision-making for climate adaptation operates in an uncertain environment. Formal processes to decision-making under uncertainty weigh the ability of a decision rule to achieve multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives in an evaluation procedure. Increasingly, computer simulation models are being applied for this reason, so that the effectiveness of decisions can be evaluated before actually implementing them in reality. In this paper, we develop a simple stochastic simulation model of beach recession under climate change in Australia and evaluate decision rules for beach replenishment in the context of three management objectives: (i) to reduce beach recession, (ii) reduce variation in beach recession, and (iii) do so cost-effectively. Results indicate that a decision to intervene and replenish the beach based on a trigger level would be effective at maintaining shoreline position, with relatively little variation, but did so at a relatively high cost of multiple interventions. A decision procedure to intervene at a fixed period resulted in greater shoreline position variation but constrained management efforts and costs. This structured approach offers an evidence-based process to decision-making that lays bare the assumptions upon which decisions are made. This, in turn, allows for a more complete analysis of all the uncertainties and better outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving the quantification of nitrous oxide (NO) emissions from agricultural land has become an issue of major concern due to its strong contribution to the greenhouse effect and to the fact that NO is now the most significant ozone-depleting emission to the atmosphere. The aim of this paper is to describe the development of a new field-scale, simple and empirical model that simulates monthly nitrogen (N) flows in cropping systems based on site characteristics and management practices. We explored its sensitivity for a Basque region of Spain growing winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under humid Mediterranean conditions to varied weather conditions and different scenarios of: (i) fertiliser rates, (ii) soil texture, (iii) organic/mineral fertilisation, (iv) slurry injection/no injection and (v) tillage/no tillage. The model showed sensitivity to most of the changes in the tested parameters. On average, simulated NO emissions decreased: (i) with the decrease in N fertiliser rates, (ii) in lighter textured soils, (iii) with organic fertilisation, (iv) after non-injecting slurry and (v) under no-tillage. The model showed that it could be useful to simulate some of the potential trade-offs that may occur after implementation of specific N pollution mitigation measures (e.g. trade-offs in crop productivity and ammonia (NH) volatilisation after implementation of measures that target a reduction in NO emissions). In a validation exercise, simulated and measured yield and soil moisture showed reasonable agreement. Although the model showed discrepancies for monthly-averaged NO fluxes, the peak after fertilisation application was reasonably well simulated. These results and the simplicity and user-friendliness of the model suggest that its structure is appropriate and, if properly calibrated for different soil types and weather conditions, it could be a useful model to be used in carbon footprint studies or to develop site-specific emission factors for current or future climatic scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over recent decades, there has been increasing levels of research dedicated to assess drivers of farm-level uptake of adaptation strategies to climate change. The main purpose of this research being to determine how policy intervention can most effectively increase adoption. This paper aims to synthesise this past research in order to scale up uptake of farm-level adaptation strategies through a composite index of potential adoption in Africa. In doing so, we review the estimated coefficients of econometric regressions in 42 case studies published in peer-review journals to identify the factors that regularly explain adoption. We find that these common factors can be grouped into seven components, that is human capital, financial resources, infrastructure and technology, social interaction and governance, food security, dependence on agriculture and attitudes towards the environment. Using national-level indicators of these seven categories, we develop a composite index to inform potential adoption and test the robustness of the index in an in-depth sensitivity analysis. The results show that the highest likelihood of adoption of farm-level adaptation strategies is in Northern African countries namely Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco and in Southern African countries such as South Africa and Botswana. Conversely, they indicate that the lowest likelihood of adoption is situated in nations of the Sahel and Horn of Africa and in nations that have recently experienced conflict. We conclude that adoption is associated predominantly with governance, civil rights, financial resources and education. However, it is not necessarily driven by the magnitude of climate change impacts on agricultural production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper estimates and compares the level of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) payments required to compensate for the opportunity costs (OCs) of stopping the conversion of montane forest and miombo woodlands into cropland in two agro-ecological zones in Morogoro Region in Tanzania. Data collected from 250 households were used for OC estimation. REDD+ payment was estimated as the net present value (NPV) of agricultural rent and forest rent during land clearing, minus net returns from sustainable wood harvest, divided by the corresponding reduction in carbon stock. The median compensation required to protect the current carbon stock in the two vegetation types ranged from USD 1 tCOe for the montane forest to USD 39 tCOe for the degraded miombo woodlands, of which up to 70 % and 16 %, respectively, were for compensating OCs from forest rent during land clearing. The figures were significantly higher when the cost of farmers' own labor was not taken into account in NPV calculations. The results also highlighted that incentives in the form of sustainable harvests could offset up to 55 % of the total median OC to protect the montane forest and up to 45 % to protect the miombo woodlands, depending on the wage rates. The findings suggest that given the possible factors that can potentially affect estimates of REDD+ payments, avoiding deforestation of the montane forest would be feasible under the REDD+ scheme. However, implementation of the policy in villages around the miombo area would require very high compensation levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change may make extreme droughts more frequent with heavy economic losses in China. Thus, this study aims to evaluate China's regional vulnerability to drought and propose proper mitigation strategies for drought vulnerable areas. In this paper, an integrated index containing exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity is developed to measure regional vulnerability to drought, and it is calculated by the integrated approach which combines slacks-based measure (SBM) model in data envelopment analysis (DEA) with genetic algorithm-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Accordingly, 65 cities in Anhui, Henan, Jiangsu and Shandong provinces of China are chosen as the study area. The results show that Anhui and Henan are more vulnerable to drought, and the proportions of cities with inefficient resilience to drought in the two provinces are 64.7 % and 55.6 % respectively. Compared with coastal areas, the inland regions have more drought vulnerable cities. In addition, the cities in the south are less vulnerable to drought than those in the central and north regions. Meanwhile, we conclude that the integrated index can measure the efficiency of resilience to drought and reveal the causes of drought vulnerability. It also indicates that adequate investments in drought preparedness and promotion of water efficiency are the crucial ways for drought vulnerability reduction. Finally, this study proposes some policy recommendations to alleviate the impacts of drought under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barriers to adaptation have become an important concept in scientific and political discussions in the governance of climate change adaptation. Over the past years, these discussions have been dominated by one analytical lens in examining barriers and proposing ways to overcome them: the problem solving lens. In this paper, we aim to demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the choice of analytical lens influences how barriers to adaptation are constructed and the intervention strategies proposed. Drawing from recent governance literature, we explore the rationale of three dominant philosophies in the study of governance: the optimist, the realist, and the pessimist philosophy. Next, we demonstrate how these philosophies are operationalized and guide scientific inquiry on barriers to adaptation through four empirically rooted analytical lenses: i) governance as problem solving, ii) governance as competing values and interests, iii) governance as institutional interaction, and iv) governance as dealing with structural constraints. We investigate the Dutch government's Spatial Adaptation to Climate Change programme through each of the four lenses. We discuss how each analytical lens frames barriers in a specific way, identifies different causes of barriers, leads to competing interpretations of key events, and presents other types of interventions to overcome barriers. We conclude that it is necessary to increase analytical variety in order to critically engage in theoretical debates about barriers and to empower policy practitioners in their search for successful intervention strategies to implement adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effectively addressing the health risks of climate change necessitates an active crosssectoral approach because health risks arise predominantly via sectors such as water, agriculture and energy. Much has been written on climate change and its impact on health, but little attention has focused on the realpolitik of how to progress the development and implementation of health-relevant strategies and policies to reduce this impact. The objective of this paper is to propose three solutions to address current deficiencies: i) strengthening the capacity and understanding of health officials in relation to climate change and health; ii) improving cross-sectoral partnerships with sectors relevant to climate change and health, and iii) identifying organisations influential in the development of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies, with a view to better target advocacy efforts. Practical examples of each solution are provided. In conclusion, as a steward of public health, the health sector must take the initiative to encourage a cross-sectoral approach that includes capacity development, coupled with an understanding of influential organisations. If this is done effectively, health, social and economic development goals can be reached more efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on international climate finance got a new impetus from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Cancun Accords in 2010 which pledge to mobilize US dollars (USD) 100 billion in international climate financing annually by 2020. The Accords' specification that adaptation must be addressed with the same priority as mitigation is not reflected in current patterns of international climate finance where we face a strong bias towards mitigation finance. A recent study by Buchner et al. () ascertains a split between mitigation and adaptation finance of 95:5. In this paper, we investigate potential reasons for this bias. In our framework, we distinguish different decision layers and actors involved in international climate finance in order to categorize the causes responsible for the low priority of adaptation in international finance. The identification of obstacles for international adaptation funding is a first crucial step in the search for ways to overcome respective barriers. We find several different causes of the mitigation bias and these might offer starting points for policies aiming at raising adaptation finance and curing this bias. Furthermore, we describe interrelations between these causes which effective policies have to take into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an analysis of co-benefits for traditional air pollutants made possible through global climate policies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The impact analysis is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: the European Union (EU), China, India and the United States. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion € when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 occur in China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion (Euros) € is estimated for the EU if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. Health impacts of air pollution are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of fine particles, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of particulate matter are responsible for about 40 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the climate strategies reduce this indicator by 50 %. Decrease of ozone concentrations estimated for the climate scenario might save nearly 20,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leakage from policies to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) must be monitored, measured and mitigated to ensure their effectiveness. This paper reviews research on leakage at the large (international and national) and small (subnational and project) scales to summarize what we already know, and highlight areas where research is urgently needed. Most (11 of 15) studies published until 2005 estimated leakage of fossil-fuel-based emissions from large-scale interventions such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol. Many studies on leakage from landuse-based emissions more relevant for REDD+ emerged afterwards (11 of 15), mostly focusing on smaller-scale interventions (8 of the 11 studies). There is a deficiency in qualitative studies showing how leakage develops from an intervention, and the factors influencing this process. In-depth empirical research is needed to understand activities and actors causing emissions (Emissions), the way those activities move spatially in response to policies (Displacement), the way policies affect carbon (C) emitting activities (Attribution) and the amount of resulting emissions produced (Quantification). The cart is thence before the horse: the knowledge necessary to form practical and accurate working definitions, typologies and characterizations of leakage is still absent. Despite this, there is a rush to measure, monitor and mitigate leakage. The concept of leakage has not matured enough, leading to vague definitions of leakage, its components, and scale. We suggest ways to improve the concept of leakage and argue for more empirical research and at various scales to add to our collective knowledge of Emissions, Displacement, Attribution and Quantification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative for the northeastern states of the U.S. allows for terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration offsets generated by afforestation activities only. This paper estimates the maximum potential quantity and associated costs of increasing the storage of carbon by afforestation of existing agricultural land in the 11 states of the Northeast United States. The focus of the work was to describe location, the quantity, and at what cost it would be economically attractive to shift agricultural production to afforestation to increase carbon storage in the region. Widely available data sets were used to (1) identify spatially-explicit areas for lower costs carbon offsets and (2) estimate carbon supply curves related to afforestation of agricultural land over three time periods (10, 20, and 40 years). Carbon accumulation and total carbon offset project costs were estimated at a county scale and combined to identify expected costs per ton of carbon dioxide equivalents (COe). Large variation in estimated costs per ton of COe are driven by varying carbon accumulation potentials and opportunity costs of taking land out of agricultural production, as well as the duration of the project activity. Results show that the lowest cost carbon offset projects will be in certain counties of Maine, Vermont, and New York. Pasture land, with lower opportunity costs, generally presents the opportunity for lower cost carbon offset projects relative to cropland. This analysis estimates that afforestation of pasture land in the northeast will not become economically attractive until the price rises above $10 per metric tonne (MT) COe and that up to 583 million MT could be economically sequestered if the price were to rise to $50 per MT COe, based on a 40-year project life. With regard to cropland in the northeast, afforestation does not become economically advantageous for land owners until the price rises above $40 per MT COe. It is estimated that up to 487,000 MT could be sequestered from cropland if the price were to rise to $50 per MT COe, based on a 40-year project life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within national greenhouse gas inventories, many countries now use widely-accepted methodologies to track carbon that continues to be stored in wood products and landfills after its removal from the forest. Beyond simply tracking post-harvest wood carbon, expansion of this pool has further been suggested as a potential climate change mitigation strategy. This paper summarizes data on the fate of carbon through the wood processing chain and on greenhouse gas emissions generated by processing, transport, use and disposal of wood. As a result of wood waste and decomposition, the carbon stored long-term in harvested wood products may be a small proportion of that originally stored in the standing trees-across the United States approximately 1% may remain in products in-use and 13% in landfills at 100 years post-harvest. Related processing and transport emissions may in some cases approach the amount of COe stored in long-lived solid wood products. Policies that promote wood product carbon storage as a climate mitigation strategy must assess full life-cycle impacts, address accounting uncertainties, and balance multiple public values derived from forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol, countries have significant latitude to define a forest. The most important parameter affecting area designated as forest is the minimum crown cover which can be set between 10 and 30%. The choice will have implications for the amount of land available in a country for afforestation and reforestation activities within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM-AR). In this paper, we present an analysis of the regional differences in land availability for CDM-AR projects. We then examine how the choice of a high or low threshold value for crown cover will affect the area available for CDM activities and how the limitations imposed by this element of the definition compares to other factors that are likely to limit CDM activities. Results represent a global analysis that included all countries not included in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol, and examined the effect on land availability of a range of crown cover thresholds ranging from 10-30%. Of the 140 Non-Annex One countries, 107 countries were found to have a potential for CDM-AR projects. Asia had the largest amount of combined area suitable for CDM-AR at the 10% crown cover threshold level. However, at 30%, South America had the greatest amount of land available, and a large change in available land area, which increased by almost five times compared to what was available at the 10% threshold. The area available in Africa increased by a factor of 5.5. Central America showed the largest increase, to almost 10 times more at the 30% threshold. By contrast, within Asia, the area increase was comparatively less, but still the area nearly doubled. Globally, a low threshold of 10% crown cover excluded almost 2/3 of the land identified that was eligible at 30%, over 5 million km2. The spatial analyses showed not only the effects of the choice of the crown cover criterion, but also where the land was available for CDM activities within each country at different thresholds. Protected areas account for 10-20% of the CDM-AR eligible area in most countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most stringent emission scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would result in the stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) at concentrations of approximately 550 ppm which would produce a global temperature increase of at least 2°C by 2100. Given the large uncertainties regarding the potential risks associated with this degree of global warming, it would be more prudent to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at or below current levels which, in turn, would require more than 20-fold reduction (i.e.,≥95%) in per capita carbon emissions in industrialized nations within the next 50–100 years. Using the Kaya equation as a conceptual framework, this paper examines whether CO2 mitigation approaches such as energy efficiency improvements, carbon sequestration, and the development of carbon-free energy sources would be sufficient to bring about the required reduction in per capita carbon emissions without creating unforeseen negative impacts elsewhere. In terms of energy efficiency, large improvements (≥5-fold) are in principle possible through aggressive investments in R&D and the removal of market imperfections such as corporate subsidies. However, energy efficiency improvements per se will not result in a reduction in carbon emissions if, as predicted by the IPCC, the size of the global economy expands 12-26-fold by 2100. Terrestrial carbon sequestration via reforestation and improved agricultural soil management has many environmental advantages, but has only limited CO2 mitigation potential because the global terrestrial carbon sink (ca. 200 Gt C) is small relative to the size of fossil fuel deposits (≥4000 Gt C). By contrast, very large amounts of CO2 can potentially be removed from the atmosphere via sequestration in geologic formations and oceans, but carbon storage is not permanent and is likely to create many unpredictable environmental consequences. Renewable energy can in theory provide large amounts of carbon-free power. However, biomass and hydroelectric energy can only be marginally expanded, and large-scale solar energy installations (i.e., wind, photovoltaics, and direct thermal) are likely to have significant negative environmental impacts. Expansion of nuclear energy is highly unlikely due to concerns over reactor safety, radioactive waste management, weapons proliferation, and cost. In view of the serious limitations and liabilities of many proposed CO2 mitigation approaches, it appears that there remain only few no-regrets options such as drastic energy efficiency improvements, extensive terrestrial carbon sequestration, and cautious expansion of renewable energy generation. These promising CO2 mitigation technologies have the potential to bring about the required 20-fold reduction in per capita carbon emission only if population and economic growth are halted without delay. Therefore, addressing the problem of global warming requires not only technological research and development but also a reexamination of core values that equate material consumption and economic growth with happiness and wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, efforts to increase land sector contributions to net-zero emissions are pursued. Harvested wood products may retain carbon, and substitute emission-intensive products. The emission reductions achieved through substitution, or substitution benefits, can inform the design of climate-effective wood-use strategies. Mitigation analyses of a wood-based bioeconomy therefore need to include substitution to evaluate the mitigation outcomes across sectors. Substitution benefits can be estimated using displacement factors, which quantify the emissions avoided per unit of wood use. Here, we calculated the displacement factors of timber constructions and wood-derived biofuels to be around 1.03 and 0.45 tCO2e/tCO2e, respectively. Assuming substitution was achieved when changes in human behavior increased the share of wood use relative to the reference market share, we added the substitution benefits to a previous analysis that focused on biogenic emissions in British Columbia, Canada. At projected declining harvest rates, the theoretical maximum reduction that forest products can contribute over the period 2016 to 2050 is 66 MtCO2e·year−1 with an uncertainty range of 45–79 MtCO2e·year−1, relative to the baseline, by focusing on long-lived, high-displacement construction applications. However, because construction uses of wood in foreign markets are not guaranteed, and constrained by market access, the practical strategy that combines construction and biofuel uses can achieve 17.4 MtCO2e·year−1, equivalent to 30% of British Columbia’s 2050 target. Although a transformation of the bioeconomy may help achieve both climate and socio-economic benefits, potential conflict exists between maximizing regional and global benefits. How and where wood will be used can influence the desired mitigation outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide emissions from households are substantial. Therefore, mitigating climate change requires household-level behavioral changes. However, mitigation behaviors have predominantly been examined at the individual level. Fewer studies have even addressed intrahousehold interactions that drive decision-making in relation to household climate change mitigation behaviors. Therefore, this study investigated the relative influence exerted by husbands and wives on the four-stage process of decision-making (i.e., problem initiation, information search and evaluation, final decisions, and practice) regarding household climate change mitigation behaviors. The sample comprised 152 married heterosexual couples living in Taipei City, Taiwan. The results revealed that the majority of surveyed couples employed joint decision-making throughout the four stages, and the percentage of joint decisions made gradually increased from problem initiation (61%) through to practice (82%). By contrast, the percentage of individual decisions gradually decreased from problem initiation (38%) through to practice (17%). Wives had considerably more influence than husbands across the four stages, and the dominance of wives in decision-making was related to wives’ characteristics such as educational attainment, gender roles, environmental attitudes, and self-efficacy, as well as husbands’ characteristics such as educational attainment and environmental attitudes. However, there was no difference between husbands and wives in the level of engagement in the three kinds of mitigation behaviors and four types of decision-making influences across the four stages. These results will help inform policies about communicating climate change information and promoting household mitigation activities to limit climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By January 2022, 156 countries had submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated unconditional and conditional NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.8 and 3.9 GtCO2eq, respectively, compared to the previously submitted NDCs as of October 2020. However, this total reduction must be about three times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even seven times greater for 1.5 °C. Nine G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.3 GtCO2eq, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies and largely depend on the emission reduction effort included in the NDCs. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2eq, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCO2eq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCO2eq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCO2eq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCO2eq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Farmers in rural Africa use a number of adaptive strategies to cope with observed climatic changes and their impacts on agriculture. Most studies on adaptive capacity focus on socio-economic parameters (such as poverty or education), and few provide detailed analysis on the role played by different institutions at local level, and the effects of how these institutions are perceived on farmers' adaptation. Semi-structured interviews were conducted among 46 households from seven villages in southern Benin (West Africa), and among representatives of several institutions at the local level. Half the participants were involved in Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) development projects and half were independent farmers. Results indicate that independent farmers mostly use non-agricultural coping strategies (loans, work in town) while project farmers mainly use agricultural adaptive strategies (improved seed varieties). Lack of adaptive capacity of independent farmers is linked to weak State institutions at the local level. Due to their lack of efficiency and high corruption rates, local State representatives are mistrusted. NGOs are trusted and seek for help, even by independent farmers. Even if NGOs do not have climate change adaptation in their agendas, they promote activities, which help reduce farmers' vulnerability. Although our results are limited to south-western Benin, they question the way adaptation is promoted today, for instance through the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (through the National Adaptation Programmes of Action). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forests in countries like the Philippines are important sources and sinks of carbon (C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippine forests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s, deforestation of 20.9 M ha (106 ha) of Philippine forests contributed 3.7 Pg (1015 g) of C to the atmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg (1012 g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr while releasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation and harvesting. In the year2015, it is expected that the total C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) and total rate of C sequestration will increase by 17% (35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline in natural forest area accompanied by an increase in tree plantation area. We have shown that uncertainty in national C estimates still exists because they are readilyaffected by the source of biomass and C density data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by: conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, and substituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here we analyze the possible implications of the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, we present current research and development efforts on tropical forests and climate change in the Philippines to improve assessments of their role in the nations C budgets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the growing threats of climate change, in addition to mitigation strategies, it is highly and equally critical to understand the socio-economic determinants of climate adaptation in order to develop climate adaptation policies. This study makes a first attempt to explore the determinants of adaptation to climate change and choices of adaptation strategies at a larger spatial scale of the south-west coastal areas in Bangladesh, which is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world. We employ both qualitative and quantitative approaches in order to examine farmers' perception of climate risks, determinants and choices of adaptation strategies to climate change in six coastal districts of Bangladesh. Farmers are adapting to these situations using their knowledge and experience. The study reveals that a number of adaptation strategies have been taken to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. These adaptation strategies are categorized into four groups: crop management, water management, land management, and income diversification. Availability of inputs, high production cost, agricultural extension service, and proper adaptation knowledge and experiences were noted as the main non-climatic challenges, as well as different climatic factors in agricultural adaptation strategies. Statistical analysis indicates that the different socio-economic determinants of farmers significantly influence their choices of adaptation to climate change. Farmers adopt these adaptations mostly autonomously rather than on the advice of government. This study could be useful for developing national adaptation policies in Bangladesh and other similar developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global effort to mitigate climate change, the parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are committed to producing annual reports on their national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These reports are a valuable source of information. Among others, they can be used to measure the effectiveness of climate mitigation strategies over time. However, large parts of GHG inventories rely on estimated quantities and consequently, the reported figures are uncertain. Quantifying this uncertainty is crucial as it may affect our ability to distinguish the true trends from the intrinsic variability. In this study, five statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification, two of them being recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), were evaluated as to their ability to correctly estimate the variance. The standard Monte Carlo estimator, which is one of the two techniques recommended by the IPCC, tended to overestimate the true variance. It was no better than a naïve estimator. The propagation-based estimator, which is the other technique recommended by the IPCC, also tended to overestimate the true variance but to a lesser extent. Goodman's estimator and a rescaled Monte Carlo estimator were both unbiased and consequently, they should be preferred when evaluating the performance of national climate mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation, the concept of the water-energy-food nexus (WEF nexus) has resulted in an increased focus on the long-neglected potential trade-offs between the water, energy, and food sector. In this study, we obtained 3077 publications from the Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE) and the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI) in the Web of Science. A bibliometric method was used to characterize the publications, the participating countries, and the research trends in the field of the WEF nexus. The results show (i) the number of scientific publications increased exponentially from 2011 to June 2019, with an average annual growth rate of 27.87%. (ii) The Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres had the most publications related to WEF nexus research. (iii) Environmental Sciences Ecology was the subject category with the most publications. (iv) WEF nexus research was led by the USA, which produced 40.14% of the publications in this field, and five of the ten most influential institutions are American institutions. (v) China ranked in second place regarding publication volume and exceeded the UK in 2016 in annual publications. The Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive research institution. (vi) Academic collaboration between countries was widespread in the WEF nexus field; the top 10 most productive countries all had high proportions of collaborative publications (> 40%), and Austria had the highest percentage (91.49%). (vi) Co-word analysis indicated that the term map had three clusters in 1988–2011 focusing on biological production, climate and meteorology, and land surface research. In 2012–2019, the term map also had three clusters, including experimental research on recyclables, resource management, and land-atmosphere interactions. Frequency analysis of the keywords in different countries showed different research emphases in the top 10 most productive countries. The analyses of frequently used keywords also revealed the research hotspots and trends. "Climate change" was the second most frequently used keyword in these countries. The interpretation of climate change mitigation and adoption strategies from the WEF nexus perspective is an important research direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climatic and non-climatic stresses impacted adversely to the functioning and productivity of the forests, resulting in disturbing the existing carbon flow in the atmosphere. Cedrus deodara occurs in pure forest stands throughout the Western Himalayas and has high biomass and soil carbon sequestration potential. The present study aims to provide the contribution of the Cedrus deodara forests under the current stresses for climate mitigation by analysing the three elevation ranges of the Dhanaulti forest division of Garhwal Himalaya, India. The results report that soil organic carbon (SOC) was adversely and bulk density favourably related with elevation. Moreover, SOC as CO2eq also decreased significantly with an increase in soil depths. Biomass carbon for various parts of the plant was also estimated for the three elevations of the Cedrus deodara forests. The trend in total carbon stock (bole, branch, twig, foliage and soil) decreased significantly with an increase in altitude. The carbon stock of Cedrus deodara forests was maximum (545 t ha−1) at upper altitude (2350 m.a.s.l) and minimum (330 t ha−1) at a lower altitude (2050 m.a.s.l). The difference in litter production between the seasons is significant with maximum production in summer followed by rainy and winter seasons. This study provides inputs for greenhouse gas (GHG) estimation for national communication to various platforms. The information on the soil is crucial for understanding about the ecology of the forests assisting prediction of functioning and productivity of forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worldwide tree cover increase (TCI) is one the most important climate change mitigation strategies, given the role of the ecosystems as carbon (C) reservoirs. Reforestation could be key to achieving TCI. However, there is still a knowledge gap about its real mitigation effects when it is applied through its replacement approach (REP-app). We evaluate the REP-app effects (replace native forest cover—NFC—by forestry plantation cover—FPC) on magnitude and direction of ecosystem C stock changes. By means of a field study, we quantified the C stock through a space-for-time substitution method, using eight paired sites (NFC/FPC) in a northern Argentinian subtropical forest (SAY). We studied C in saplings, lianas, above and belowground biomass, dead organic biomass, and soil. Through a metaanalysis, we evaluated the reliableness within the response of C sequestration (gain or loss) in international study cases and, therefore, the robustness of outcomes analyzing some main moderator variables that may influence the result. A significant effect of C loss was revealed by both, the field study (− 50%) and the metaanalysis (− 20.4%), and this response was consistent through stands of ages and species different. SAY sequestered 285 MgC ha−1. Only 35-year-old Eucalyptus stand reached similar values, but they are reservoirs of doubtful permanence with functional attributes that could affect long-term ecosystem functioning. Given that the TCI strategy seek to achieve interconnected efforts in relation to climate, biodiversity, and sustainable development, the REP-app must not be considered a mitigation strategy in subtropical ecosystems. Global programs promoting TCI must be redirected urgently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The net increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion contributes significantly to the global warming and climate change. CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in geological formations, specifically in deep saline aquifers, is among the very promising strategies to control and mitigate emissions into the atmosphere. Injection of CO2 into a reservoir may result in the formation of pore pressure which can initiate cracks and trigger fault activities. CO2 may leak into the atmosphere and invade shallow groundwater sources. Release of CO2 into the atmosphere has enormous effects on the environment and significantly contributes to global climate change. Therefore, storage safety, injection efficiency, and monitoring remain crucially important considerations in CO2 injection. This study attempts to establish an optimal CO2 injection strategy that aims at enhancing CO2 storage with an increased safety at Ordos basin. Furthermore, it establishes the safety limits of CO2 plume migration from the central axis of the injection well. In the investigation, injection parameters such as injection rate and bottom hole pressure were analyzed. The CO2 plume migration analysis was performed, and migration limits were determined. Simulation results revealed that different formation layers have varying storage capacities and pressure withstanding ability. The site maximum storage rate goal of storing 100,000 t of CO2 per year was attained. It is advised to perform injection at the Majiagou layer due to sufficient storage capacity and greater depth of over 2400 m from the surface. This study recommends that an optimum CO2 sequestration strategy which does not result into excessive migration of injected CO2 plume and limit formation pressure buildup should be adopted. Therefore, deep underground storage at an average depth of above 2400 m is optimum, because it has an adequate storage space to accommodate the desired rate of 100,000 t/year. Besides, its geological settings favor storage safety in the event of significant uplift that may cause induced seismicity. Furthermore, it will also limit CO2 plume that may come into contact with shallow groundwater sources. Likewise, investing in low carbon and carbon-free energy technologies and enhancement of energy efficiency systems around the site is also recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]