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Q-vector partitioning has proven to be a useful tool for the understanding of the frictionless, adiabatic processes responsible for the generation of synoptic-scale vertical motion in the extratropical atmosphere. Partitioning of Q into components parallel and normal to the isotherms on an isobaric surface is standard practice in studies dealing with vertical motion and frontogenesis. This paper is concerned with vertical motion only and examines the consequences of projecting Q onto isohypses, instead of isotherms, on an isobaric surface. Specifically, the Q vector is partitioned in the natural coordinate system that follows the geostrophic wind. The novelty with this partitioning is that it naturally leads to the evaluation of different vertical motion forcing mechanisms, among which are those related to flow curvature and to confluence or diffluence. This evaluation is illustrated by applying the new Q-vector partition to a gridded analysis of a real weather situation. An important conclusion is that the thermal advection by horizontal geostrophic shear is as significant to the forcing of vertical motion as the geostrophic confluence/diffluence. While this result has previously been obtained in the study of frontal dynamics, this is the first application of this finding to the synoptic scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a condensation scheme is implemented in a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MEMO). An overview of the model and the modified Sundqvist condensation scheme are given. The model, including condensation (MEMOIC), is tested on two well-known phenomena that are likely to produce clouds in humid atmospheres: sea breeze and flow over a mesoscale mountain. First the sea-breeze simulations are used to show the effect increased horizontal resolution has on the results (wind velocities, cloud water, and precipitation pattern). It is concluded that the circulation generally increases due to increased resolution and that the Sundqvist condensation scheme performs well with horizontal model resolution as high as 2.5 km. Second, a number of simulations of flow over mountain are discussed. Upstream flow parameters and the shape of the mountain are changed to test the usability of MEMOIC. Also, for this flow pattern, MEMOIC performs well. It is shown that it is able to handle released instabilities and that it gives reasonable results for horizontal grid resolution as high as 500 m. For the discussed flow patterns it is hard to give a lower horizontal-resolution limit for MEMOIC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines papers presented by D. J. Parker and C. Liu and M. W. Moncrieff regarding interaction between a cold pool of low-level air and an ambient flow. Information on two-dimensional flow from a fixed-temperature source; Details of three-dimensional flow away from a source of fixed cooling rate; Problems in the application of ideas from the study of bouyant plumes to atmospheric down drafts forced by evaporation and precipitation.

In this paper, the sensitivity of precipitation associated with ordinary baroclinic continental winter storms to small variations in the synoptic-scale circulation is explored using ensembles of observed regional analogs. When seeking time-coherent analogs for periods of 1--2 days in length on the basis of anomaly correlation scores at both the surface and 500 hPa, the observed precipitation structures are strongly dependent on circulation details, reflecting subtle differences at both the synoptic scale and mesoscale. It has also been found that when seeking time-coherent regional analogs on the basis of the observed precipitation distributions, such analogs cannot be identified. However, coherent precipitation structures that are identified for shorter periods (order 1 day) are found to occur in association with highly dissimilar circulations. Thus, the sensible weather that results from a particular circulation is crucially dependent on the details of the flow. The authors believe that these findings provide some explanation for the relatively slow advance of precipitation forecast skill in the face of continuously improving forecasts of the large-scale circulation. The study of the evolution of the base case and its closest circulation analog is split into two successive 24-h periods. During the first 24 h, the substantial differences in the observed precipitation are linked to the complex interplay between precipitation events prior to the period of interest (which led to the generation of upwind sources of moisture) and synoptic-scale dynamics (primarily differences in the structure and intensity of the subtropical jet, which led to slight deviations in the low-level flow between the two cases and subsequent differences in moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico and moisture convergence). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is designed to be an annual summary of the Eastern Hemisphere tropical cyclones of 1995. The tropical cyclone statistics presented are those of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam. The text focuses primarily upon the tropical cyclones that occurred in the western North Pacific during 1995; however, since the area of responsibility of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center covers the entire Eastern Hemisphere, brief summaries of the tropical cyclone activity within the north Indian Ocean, south Indian Ocean, and the southwest Pacific are also presented. Overall, 1995 was a relatively quiet year in the Eastern Hemisphere: the 22 tropical cyclones of the Southern Hemisphere were only one shy of the record low of 21, and for the first time since 1988 the number of tropical storms and typhoons in the western North Pacific was below normal. In the western North Pacific, there was a marked shift to the west of the preferred region for the genesis and development of tropical cyclones. This is consistent with the end of persistent large-scale circulation anomalies characteristic of the warm phase of the El Nino--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the onset (during 1995) of weak ENSO cold-phase anomalies (i.e., La Nina conditions). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection frequently occurs on the eastern side of upper-level troughs, or potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. This is consistent with uplift ahead of a cyclonic PV anomaly, and consequent reduction in static stability and increase of convective available potential energy (CAPE). Nevertheless, the causal link between upper-level PV and deep convection has not been proven, and given that lift, moisture, and instability must all be present for deep convection to occur it is not clear that upper-level forcing is sufficient. In this paper a convective rainband that intensified ahead of a cyclonic PV anomaly in an environment with little CAPE (~10 J kg−1) is examined to determine the factors responsible for its intensification. The key feature was a low-level convergence line, arising from the remnants of an occluded front embedded in the low-level cyclonic flow. The rainband's intensity and morphology was influenced by the remnants of a tropopause fold that capped convection at midlevels in the southern part of the band, and by a reduction in upper-level static stability in the northern part of the band that allowed the convection to reach the tropopause. Ascent ahead of the trough appears to have played only a minor role in conditioning the atmosphere to convection: in most cases the ascending airstream had previously descended in the flow west of the trough axis. Thus, simple 'PV thinking' is not capable of describing the development of the rainband, and it is concluded that preexisting low-level wind and humidity features played the dominant role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamics of low-level flows in the eye of Typhoon Haishen (2020) in its late phase of intensification are investigated with a special rapid-scan observation of the Himawari-8 geosynchronous satellite conducted every 30 s. This is accomplished by deriving storm-relative atmospheric motion vectors at an unprecedentedly high spatiotemporal resolution by tracking clouds across five consecutive visible-light reflectivity. The overall low-level circulation center was situated several kilometers away from the storm center defined in terms of the inner edge of the lower part of eyewall clouds. The shift direction is rearward of the storm translation, consistently with a numerical study of the tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer. Over the analysis period of 10 h, azimuthal-mean tangential wind around this center was increased at each radius within the eye, and the rotational angular velocity was nearly homogenized. The instantaneous low-level circulation center is found to orbit around the overall circulation center at distances around 5 km. Its orbital angular speed was close to the maximum angular speed of azimuthal-mean tangential winds. This rotating transient disturbance is found to transport angular momentum inward, which explains the tangential wind increase and the angular velocity homogenization in the eye. These features are consistent with an algebraically growing wavenumber-1 barotropic instability, whose impact on TC structures has not been explored. This instability enhances wavenumber-1 asymmetry in ring-shaped vorticity, which can be induced by various processes such as translation, environmental shear, and exponential barotropic instability. Therefore, it may appear broadly in TCs to affect wind distribution in their eyes. Significance Statement: Axially asymmetric transient features in the inner cores of tropical storms have been suggested to profoundly affect the structures and the time evolutions of tropical storms. However, the scarcity of observations has hindered studying such processes observationally. By using a specially conducted high-frequency satellite imaging of Typhoon Haishen (2020), we derived atmospheric motion vectors nearly homogeneously at an unprecedentedly high spatiotemporal resolution. Various kinds of asymmetric motions in low-level flows in the eye were found. Of particular interest is a special type of wavenumber-1 instability whose role has not drawn much attention; the instability was found to provide angular momentum transport consistent with the measured homogenization of the rotation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observing system experiments were undertaken within the 4D-Var data assimilation of the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. A 6-month period was chosen (October 2019–March 2020) where 40 million observations per day were assimilated. The importance of in situ observations provided by aircraft, radiosondes, and surface weather stations, despite their small fractional amount (7%), has been confirmed particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Moreover, the largest impact over Europe in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) scores comes from surface observations. Satellite data play a dominant role over tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere. Microwave radiances have a more pronounced impact on the long range and on the humidity field than infrared radiances, despite being less numerous (10% versus 80%). Bending angles impact significantly the quality of the upper-troposphere–lower-stratosphere temperature of the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are beneficial in wind forecasts at low and high levels in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere, but also in the humidity field. Such impacts are only significant during the first 48 h of the forecasts. Scatterometer winds have an impact restricted to low levels that is kept at longer ranges. A comparison with forecast sensitivity–observation impact studies over a 3-month period using the same measure of short-range (24-h) forecast errors reveals that the ranking between the major observing systems is kept between these two ways of measuring observation impact in NWP. From our conclusions, recommendations are provided on possible evolutions of the global observing system for NWP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of assimilating enhanced atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) on mesoscale analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones (TC) is investigated. AMVs from the geostationary Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) are processed by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS, University of Wisconsin-Madison) for the duration of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008), which included a rapid intensification phase and a slow, meandering track. The ensemble Kalman filter and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are utilized within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed. In addition to conventional observations, three different groups of AMVs are assimilated in parallel experiments: CTL, the same dataset assimilated in the NCEP operational analysis; CIMSS(h), hourly datasets processed by CIMSS; and CIMSS(h+RS), the dataset including AMVs from the rapid-scan mode. With an order of magnitude more AMV data assimilated, the CIMSS(h) analyses exhibit a superior track, intensity, and structure to CTL analyses. The corresponding 3-day ensemble forecasts initialized with CIMSS(h) yield smaller track and intensity errors than those initialized with CTL. During the period when rapid-scan AMVs are available, the CIMSS(h+RS) analyses offer additional modifications to the TC and its environment. In contrast to many members in the ensemble forecasts initialized from the CTL and CIMSS(h) analyses that predict an erroneous landfall in China, the CIMSS(h+RS) members capture recurvature, albeit prematurely. The results demonstrate the promise of assimilating enhanced AMV data into regional TC models. Further studies to identify optimal strategies for assimilating integrated full-resolution multivariate data from satellites are under way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northwestern Canada is a genesis region of arctic air masses often considered to be formed primarily through radiative processes. However, the details of their life cycle are poorly understood. This paper examines the formation, maintenance, and dissipation of an intense and long-lived arctic air mass, using a thermodynamic budget analysis. The airmass formation is characterized by a deep-layer, multistage process that begins with snow falling into a nascent air mass. Radiative cooling from cloud tops begins the process. After the snow abates and clear skies are observed, the surface temperature drops rapidly, aided by the high emissivity of fresh snow cover, falling 17°C in two days, creating an intense but shallow temperature inversion. Once the surface temperature falls below the frost point, ice crystals form. Afterward, although the surface temperature remains constant, the height of the inversion rises, as radiative cooling at the top of the ice fog layer decreases temperatures. During the maintenance phase, a cold-air damming structure is present with an anticyclone in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, and an intense baroclinic zone parallel to the mountains, separating warmer maritime air from colder continental air. The air mass persists for 12 days, undergoing several cycles of deep-layer weakening and intensification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event's progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a new scheme based on geopotential height fields to detect cutoff lows starting in the preexisting trough stage. The intensity and scale derived from the proposed scheme will allow for a better understanding of the cutoff low life cycle. These cutoff lows often accompany mesoscale disturbances, causing adverse weather-related events, such as intense torrential rainfall and/or tornadoes. The proposed scheme quantifies the geometric features of a depression from its horizontal height profile. The height slope of a line intersecting the depression bottom and the nearest tangential point (optimal slope) locally indicates the intensity and scale of an isolated depression. The strength of the proposed scheme is that, by removing a local background height slope from a geopotential height field, the cutoff low and its preexisting trough are seamlessly detected as an identical depression. The distribution maps for the detected cutoff lows and preexisting troughs are illustrated along with their intensities, sizes, and local background flows estimated from snapshot height fields. We conducted climatological comparisons of cutoff lows to determine the utility of the proposed scheme. Significance Statement: We propose a new automated numerical scheme for upper-tropospheric cyclones (cutoff lows) and their earlier developmental stage as troughs (preexisting troughs). Cutoff lows are frequently associated with much smaller-scale hazardous phenomena at the surface, such as tornadoes. The proposed scheme can extract locations with transitions that are as smooth as possible and estimate their intensities, sizes, and even the local background flows behind them using nonpreprocessed (snapshot) basic weather data consisting of geopotential height fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple observation and analysis datasets are used to demonstrate two key features of the atypical rapid intensification (ARI) process that occurred in Atlantic Hurricane Dorian (2019): 1) precession and nutations of the vortex tilt and 2) blocking of the impinging upper-level environmental flow by the outflow. As Dorian came under the influence of an upper-level anticyclone, traditional methods of estimating vertical wind shear all indicated relatively low values were acting on the storm; however, high-spatiotemporal-resolution atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) indicated that the environmental flow at upper levels was actually impinging on the vortex core, resulting in a vertical tilt. We employ a novel ensemble of centers of individual swaths of dual-Doppler radar data from WP-3D aircraft to characterize the precession and wobble of the vortex tilt. This tilting and wobbling preceded a sequence of outflow surges that acted to repel the impinging environmental flow, thereby reducing the shear and permitting ARI. We then apply prior methodology on satellite imagery for distinguishing ARI features. Finally, we use the AMV dataset to experiment with different shear calculations and show that the upper-level cross-vortex flow approaches zero. We discuss the implication of these results with regard to prior works on ARI and intensification in shear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A detailed investigation about the effects of the Microwave Humidity Sounder-2 (MWHS-2) radiances on board the Fengyun-3D (FY-3D) satellite is combined with developments within the Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system and analyses on the evolution of the heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Ampil during 23-24 July 2018. In the analysis field, the position of Typhoon Ampil is found out to be distinctly affected by the MWHS-2 assimilation. The experiment that assimilates MWHS-2 radiances through hybrid-3DVAR generates the best analysis with large increments around the typhoon, which contributes to the typhoon moving inland to the southwest. In the forecast fields, the MWHS-2 assimilation improves the rainfall in not only the accumulated amount, but also the evolution characteristics. The hybrid-3DVAR experiment reduces the RMSE of the rainfall amount, and enhances the spatial correlation and the fractions skill score of the rainfall evolution to the greatest extent, followed by the 3DVAR MWHS-2 experiment. As for the cause of the rainfall improvements, analyses suggest that it could be closely connected with the characteristics of the circulation structures related to the typhoon evolution. On one hand, the increases of the rainfall amount and intensities in the MWHS-2 assimilation experiments (previously underestimated) correspond to the strengthened typhoon structures with strong anomalies in both the upper-layer temperature and the lower-layer geopotential height. On the other hand, the better rainfall evolution in the hybrid-3DVARexperiment could be explained by its clearer evolution of the structure of typhoon under the effects of an approaching upper trough, and its smallest typhoon track errors around the middle time period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale cloud features referred to as cloudbands are known to be related to widespread and heavy rain via the transport of tropical heat and moisture to higher latitudes. The Australian northwest cloudband is such a feature that has been identified in simple searches of satellite imagery but with limited investigation of its atmospheric dynamical support. An accurate, long-term climatology of northwest cloudbands is key to robustly assessing these events. A dynamically based search algorithm has been developed that is guided by the presence and orientation of the subtropical jet stream. This jet stream is the large-scale atmospheric feature that determines the development and alignment of a cloudband. Using a new 40-yr dataset of cloudband events compiled by this search algorithm, composite atmospheric and ocean surface conditions over the period 1979–2018 have been assessed. Composite cloudband upper-level flow revealed a tilted low pressure trough embedded in a Rossby wave train. Composites of vertically integrated water vapor transport centered around the jet maximum during northwest cloudband events reveal a distinct atmospheric river supplying tropical moisture for cloudband rainfall. Parcel backtracking indicated multiple regions of moisture support for cloudbands. A thermal wind anomaly orientated with respect to an enhanced sea surface temperature gradient over the Indian Ocean was also a key composite cloudband feature. A total of 300 years of a freely coupled control simulation of the ACCESS-D system was assessed for its ability to simulate northwest cloudbands. Composite analysis of model cloudbands compared reasonably well to reanalysis despite some differences in seasonality and frequency of occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, reanalysis data and a long-term simulation with the regional climate model WRF (1982–2017; 10 km resolution) is used to analyze synoptic and regional processes associated with rainfall events in the Atacama Desert. Five composites, each with 10 WRF-simulated rainfall events, are studied. They are selected based on a clustering and comprise the top winter events in South Atacama (23°–26°S), Southeast Atacama, and North Atacama (18°–23°S), and the top summer events in North Atacama and Northeast Atacama. Winter rainfall events in South Atacama are mostly associated with strong low pressure systems over the southeast Pacific and atmospheric rivers at their foreside, while cutoff lows occurring anomalously far north facilitate strong rainfall in North Atacama. Accordingly, tropical continental areas and the remote tropical and subtropical Pacific are identified as primary moisture sources, and moisture transport toward the Atacama Desert mainly takes place in the free troposphere (above 800 hPa). Strong summer rainfall events in North Atacama and Northeast Atacama are associated with a southward displaced Bolivian high. During rainfall events in North Atacama the high is shifted westward when compared to the Northeast Atacama events. Consequently, northern Chile is located at the northern periphery of the Bolivian high and the resulting strong easterlies may push strong convective systems from the Altiplano, toward the Atacama coast. Detailed analyses of individual rainfall events reveal that the most important synoptic patterns associated with rainfall not only control the synoptic-scale moisture transport into the Atacama Desert, but also decisively influence the regional atmospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) has long been associated with summertime nocturnal convection over the central Great Plains of the United States. Destabilization effects of the LLJ are examined using composite fields assembled from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System for June and July 2008–12. Of critical importance are the large isobaric temperature gradients that become established throughout the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere in response to the seasonal heating of the sloping Great Plains. Such temperature gradients provide thermal wind forcing throughout the lower atmosphere, resulting in the establishment of a background horizontal pressure gradient force at the level of the LLJ. The attendant background geostrophic wind is an essential ingredient for the development of a pronounced summertime LLJ. Inertial turning of the ageostrophic wind associated with LLJ provides a westerly wind component directed normal to the terrain-induced orientation of the isotherms. Hence, significant nocturnal low-level warm-air advection occurs, which promotes differential temperature advection within a vertical column of atmosphere between the level just above the LLJ and 500 hPa. Such differential temperature advection destabilizes the nighttime troposphere above the radiatively cooled near-surface layer on a recurring basis during warm weather months over much of the Great Plains and adjacent states to the east. This destabilization process reduces the convective inhibition of air parcels near the level of the LLJ and may be of significance in the development of elevated nocturnal convection. The 5 July 2015 case from the Plains Elevated Convection at Night field program is used to demonstrate this destabilization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is regarded as one of the most important factors for onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). Previous studies generally indicated that an El Niño event tends to result in a late onset of the SCSSM monsoon. However, this relationship has not been true in recent years, particularly when an extremely early SCSSM onset (1 May 2019) occurred following the 2018/19 El Niño event in the preceding winter. The processes of the second earliest SCSSM onset in the past 41 years were investigated using NCEP–DOE reanalysis, OLR data, and ERSST. A negative sea surface temperature and associated anticyclonic anomalies were absent over the western North Pacific in the late spring of 2019 following an El Niño event in the preceding winter. Thus, the mean circulation in the late spring of 2019 does not prevent SCSSM onset, which is in sharp contrast to the composited spring of the El Niño decaying years. The convective active and westerly phases of a 30–60-day oscillation originating from the Indian Ocean provided a favorable background for the SCSSM onset in 2019. In addition, the monsoon onset vortex over the Bay of Bengal and the cold front associated with a midlatitude trough over East Asia also played important roles in triggering the early onset of the SCSSM in 2019. No tropical cyclone appeared over the western North Pacific during April and May, and the enhancement of quasi-biweekly oscillation mainly occurs after the SCSSM onset; thus, these two factors contribute little to the SCSSM onset in 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale atmospheric circulation regime structures are used to diagnose subseasonal forecasts of wintertime geopotential height fields over the North American sector, from the NCEP CFSv2 model. Four large-scale daily circulation regimes derived from reanalysis 500-hPa geopotential height data using K-means clustering are used as a low-dimensional basis for diagnosing the model's forecasts up to 45 days ahead. On average, hindcast skill in regime space is found to be limited to 10–15 days ahead, in terms of anomaly correlation of 5-day averages of regime counts, over the 1999–2010 period. However, skill up to 30 days ahead is identified in individual winters, and intraseasonal episodes of high skill are identified using a forecast-evolution graphical tool. A striking vacillation between the West Coast and Pacific ridge patterns during December–January 2008/09 is shown to be predicted 20–25 days in advance, illustrating the possibility to identify "forecasts of opportunity" when subseasonal forecast skill is much higher than the average. The forecast-evolution tool also provides insight into the poor seasonal forecasts of California precipitation by operational centers during the 2015/16 El Niño winter. The Pacific trough regime is shown to be greatly overpredicted beyond 1–2 weeks in advance during the 2015/16 winter, with weather-scale features dominating the forecast evolution at shorter lead times. A similar though less extreme situation took place during the weaker El Niño of 2009/10, with the Pacific trough overforecast at S2S lead times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and predicting midlatitude cold spells is of scientific and public interest, given often associated severe impacts. However, large-scale atmospheric dynamics related to these events are not fully understood. The winter of 2017/18 was characterized by several cold spells affecting large parts of North America and Eurasia. Here, the role of stratosphere–troposphere coupling for the occurrence of cold spells in this winter is investigated using different wave propagation diagnostics. While the European cold spell in late February 2018 was influenced by a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) associated with wave absorption, the cold spells over North America at the end of December 2017 and early February 2018 were related to downward reflected waves over the North Pacific. Previously proposed wave reflection indices, however, either miss these reflection events or are not able to distinguish them from the major SSW related to wave absorption. To overcome this, a novel simple index based on eddy heat flux is proposed here, capturing regional wave reflection over the North Pacific. Reflection events detected with this index are shown to be followed by North Pacific blocking and negative temperature anomalies over North America. An improved understanding of the contribution of wave reflection for cold spells is crucial to better predict such events in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the assimilation of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts has been investigated. The high-resolution AMVs are derived from the full disk scan of the new generation geostationary satellite Himawari-8. Forecast experiments for three TCs in 2016 in a western North Pacific basin are performed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF). Two different ensemble–variational hybrid data assimilation configurations (using background error covariance created by global ensemble forecast and HWRF ensemble forecast), based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI), are used for the sensitivity experiments. The results show that the inclusion of high-resolution Himawari-8 AMVs (H8AMV) can benefit the track forecast skill, especially for long-range lead times. The diagnosis of optimal steering flow indicates that the improved track forecast seems to be attributed to the improvement of initial steering flow surrounding the TC. However, the assimilation of H8AMV increases the negative intensity bias and error, especially for short-range forecast lead times. The investigation of the structural change from the assimilation of H8AMV revealed that the following two factors are likely related to this degradation: 1) an increase of inertial stability outside the radius of maximum wind (RMW), which weakens the boundary layer inflow; and 2) a drying around and outside the RMW. Assimilating H8AMV using background error covariance created from HWRF ensemble forecast contributes to a significant reduction in negative intensity bias and error, and there is a significant benefit to TC size forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dropsondes released during the Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field campaign provide high-resolution kinematic and thermodynamic measurements of tropical cyclones within the upper-level outflow and inner core. This study investigates the impact of these upper-level TCI dropsondes on analyses and prediction of Hurricane Patricia (2015) during its rapid intensification (RI) phase using an ensemble–variational data assimilation system. In the baseline experiment (BASE), both kinematic and thermodynamic observations of TCI dropsondes at all levels except the upper levels are assimilated. The upper-level wind and thermodynamic observations are assimilated in additional experiments to investigate their respective impacts. Compared to BASE, assimilating TCI upper-level wind observations improves the accuracy of outflow analyses verified against independent atmospheric motion vector (AMV) observations. It also strengthens the tangential and radial wind near the upper-level eyewall. The inertial stability within the upper-level eyewall is enhanced, and the maximum outflow is more aligned toward the inner core. Additionally, the analyses including the upper-level thermodynamic observations produce a warmer and drier core at high levels. Assimilating both upper-level kinematic and thermodynamic observations also improves the RI forecast. Compared to BASE, assimilating the upper-level wind induces more upright and inward-located eyewall convection, resulting in more latent heat release closer to the warm core. This process leads to stronger inner-core warming. Additionally, the initial warmer upper-level inner core produced by assimilating TCI thermodynamic observations also intensifies the convection and latent heat release within the eyewall, thus further contributing to the improved intensity forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sampling errors and model errors are major drawbacks from which ensemble Kalman filters suffer. Sampling errors arise because of the use of a limited ensemble size, while model errors are deficiencies in the dynamics and underlying parameterizations that may yield biases in the model's prediction. In this study, we propose a new time-adaptive posterior inflation algorithm in which the analyzed ensemble anomalies are locally inflated. The proposed inflation strategy is computationally efficient and is aimed at restoring enough spread in the analysis ensemble after assimilating the observations. The performance of this scheme is tested against the relaxation to prior spread (RTPS) and adaptive prior inflation. For this purpose, two model are used: the three-variable Lorenz 63 system and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). In CAM, global refractivity, temperature, and wind observations from several sources are incorporated to perform a set of assimilation experiments using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The proposed scheme is shown to yield better quality forecasts than the RTPS. Assimilation results further suggest that when model errors are small, both prior and posterior inflation are able to mitigate sampling errors with a slight advantage to posterior inflation. When large model errors, such as wind and temperature biases, are present, prior inflation is shown to be more accurate than posterior inflation. Densely observed regions as in the Northern Hemisphere present numerous challenges to the posterior inflation algorithm. A compelling enhancement to the performance of the filter is achieved by combining both adaptive inflation schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glacier (the 79 fjord, henceforth referred to as 79N) has been thinning and accelerating since the early 2000s, as a result of calving episodes at the front of the glacier. As 8% of the Greenland Ice Sheet area drains into 79N, changes in the stability of 79N could propagate into the interior of Greenland. Despite this concern, relatively little is known about the atmospheric conditions over 79N. We present the surface atmospheric processes and climatology of the 79N region from analyses of data from four automatic weather stations (AWS) and reanalysis data from ERA-Interim. Over the floating section of the glacier, the annual average air temperature is −16.7°C, decreasing to −28.5°C during winter. Winds over the glacier are predominantly westerly and are of katabatic origin. Over the last 39 years the near-surface air temperature has increased at a rate of +0.08°C yr−1. In addition, we find that large, rapid (48 h) temperature increases (>10°C) occur during the five-month dark period (November–March). Eight (±4) warm-air events occur annually from 1979 to 2017. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to simulate a particular warm-air event with above-freezing air temperatures between 30 November and 2 December 2014. The warm event was caused by warm-air advection from the southeast and a subsequent increase in the longwave radiation toward the surface due to low-level cloud formation. The frequent nature of the temperature jumps and the magnitude of the temperature increases are likely to have an impact on the surface mass balance of the glacier by bringing the skin temperatures to the melting point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A climatology of extreme cold season precipitation events in Norway from 1979 to 2014 is presented, based on the 99th percentile of the 24-h accumulated precipitation. Three regions, termed north, west, and south are identified, each exhibiting a unique seasonal distribution. There is a proclivity for events to occur during the positive phase of the NAO. The result is statistically significant at the 95th percentile for the north and west regions. An overarching hypothesis of this work is that anomalous moisture flux, or so-called atmospheric rivers (ARs), are integral to extreme precipitation events during the Norwegian cold season. An objective analysis of the integrated vapor transport illustrates that more than 85% of the events are associated with ARs. An empirical orthogonal function and fuzzy cluster technique is used to identify the large-scale weather patterns conducive to the moisture flux and extreme precipitation. Five days before the event and for each of the three regions, two patterns are found. The first represents an intense, southward-shifted jet with a southwest–northeast orientation. The second identifies a weak, northward-shifted, zonal jet. As the event approaches, regional differences become more apparent. The distinctive flow pattern conducive to orographically enhanced precipitation emerges in the two clusters for each region. For the north and west regions, this entails primarily zonal flow impinging upon the south–north-orientated topography, the difference being the latitude of the strong flow. In contrast, the south region exhibits a significant southerly component to the flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate for South Pacific island nations and territories. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short- and long-term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its position and strength is strongly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), leading to large interannual variability in rainfall across the southwest Pacific including seasonal droughts and pluvials. Currently much of the analysis about SPCZ activity has been restricted to the satellite observation period starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), which is a three-dimensional atmospheric reconstruction based only on surface observations, is discussed for the period since 1908. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (version 2 and version 2c) in the satellite era is compared with other reanalyses and climate observation products. The 20CR performs well in the satellite era. Extra surface observations spanning the SPCZ region from the longitude of the Cook Islands has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908–57 between 20CRv2 and 20CRv2c. The well-established relationship with ENSO is observed in both the representation of mean SPCZ position and intensity, and this relationship remains consistent through the entire 1908–2011 period. This suggests that the ENSO–SPCZ relationship has remained similar over the course of the past century, and gives further evidence that 20CRv2c performs well back to 1908 over the southwest Pacific region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently develop over the Great Plains in the presence of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ), which contributes to convective maintenance by providing a source of instability, convergence, and low-level vertical wind shear. Although these nocturnal MCSs often dissipate during the morning, many persist into the following afternoon despite the cessation of the LLJ with the onset of solar heating. The environmental factors enabling the postsunrise persistence of nocturnal convection are currently not well understood. A thorough investigation into the processes supporting the longevity and daytime persistence of an MCS was conducted using routine observations, RAP analyses, and a WRF-ARW simulation. Elevated nocturnal convection developed in response to enhanced frontogenesis, which quickly grew upscale into a severe quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). The western portion of this QLCS reorganized into a bow echo with a pronounced cold pool and ultimately an organized leading-line, trailing-stratiform MCS as it moved into an increasingly unstable environment. Differential advection resulting from the interaction of the nocturnal LLJ with the topography of west Texas established considerable heterogeneity in moisture, CAPE, and CIN, which influenced the structure and evolution of the MCS. An inland-advected moisture plume significantly increased near-surface CAPE during the nighttime over central Texas, while the environment over southeastern Texas abruptly destabilized following the commencement of surface heating and downward moisture transport. The unique topography of the southern plains and the close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico provided an environment conducive to the postsunrise persistence of the organized MCS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Astrong African easterly wave (AEW) left the West African coast in early September 2014 and operational global numerical forecasts suggested a potential for rapid tropical cyclogenesis of this disturbance in the eastern Atlantic, despite the presence of a large region of dry air northwest of the disturbance. Analysis and in situ observations show that after leaving the coast, the closed circulation associated with the AEW trough was not well aligned vertically, and therefore, low-level or midlevel dry air was advected below or above, respectively, areas of closed circulation. GPS dropwindsonde observations highlight the dry air undercutting the midlevel recirculation region in the southwestern quadrant. This advection of dry air constrains the spatial extent of deep convection within the AEW trough, leading to the vortex decaying. As the column continues to be displaced horizontally, losing vertical alignment, this enables increased horizontal advection of dry air into the system further limiting convective activity. Ensemble forecasts indicate that short-term errors in precipitation rate and vorticity generation can lead to an over intensified and well-aligned vortex, which then interacts less with the unfavorable environment, allowing for further convection and intensification. The stronger vortex provides more favorable conditions for precipitation through a more vertically coherent closed circulation and thus a positive feedback loop is initiated. The short-term forecasts of precipitation were shown to be sensitive to lower-tropospheric moisture anomalies around the AEW trough through ensemble sensitivity analysis from Global Ensemble Forecast System real-time forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important to understand the dynamical processes that cause heat waves at regional scales. This study examined the physical mechanism that was responsible for a heat wave in South Korea in August 2016. Unlike previous August heat waves over the Korean Peninsula, the intensity of the geopotential height over the Kamchatka Peninsula in August 2016 was the strongest since 1979, which acted as an atmospheric blocking in the downstream region of the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, the anomalous high geopotential height in Mongolia, where the surface temperature was quite high, was observed persistently in August 2016. This anomalous high in Mongolia induced northerly winds with warm temperatures onto the Korean Peninsula, which contributed to a heat wave in August 2016. We further showed that the anomalous high geopotential height over the Kamchatka Peninsula in August 2016 was triggered by strong convection in the western-to-central subtropical Pacific through atmospheric teleconnections, which was quite different from a typical heat wave over the Korean Peninsula, in which convective forcing around the South China Sea is strong. This implies that convective forcing in the subtropical Pacific should also be monitored to predict heat wave events in East Asia, including South Korea. On the other hand, the zonal wave train associated with the circumglobal teleconnection pattern is also associated with the anomalous high geopotential height around Mongolia and the Kamchatka Peninsula, which may have contributed to the heat wave in August 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The skill of the Arctic stratospheric retrospective ensemble forecasts (hindcasts) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts extended-range system is analyzed with a focus on the predictability of the major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) during the period 1993-2016. Thirteen SSWs took place during this period. It is found that forecasts initialized 10-15 days before the SSWs show worse skill in the stratosphere than forecasts initialized during normal conditions in terms of root-mean-square errors but not in terms of anomaly correlation. Using the spread of ensemble members to estimate forecasted SSW probability, it is shown that some SSWs can be predicted with high (.0.9) probability at lead times of 12-13 days if a difference of 3 days between actual and forecasted SSW is allowed. Focusing on SSWs with significant impacts on the tropospheric circulation, on average, the forecasted SSW probability is found to increase from nearly 0 at 1-month lead time to 0.3 at day 13 before SSW, and then rapidly increases to nearly 1 at day 7. The period between days 8 and 12 is when most of the SSWs are predicted, with a probability of 0.5-0.9, which is considerably larger than the observed SSW occurrence frequency. Therefore, this period can be thought of as an estimate of the SSW predictability limit in this system. Indications that the predictability limit for some SSWs may be longer than 2 weeks are also found; however, this result is inconclusive and more studies are needed to understand when and why such long predictability is possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled data assimilation is emerging as a target approach for Earth system prediction and reanalysis systems. Coupled data assimilation may be indeed able to minimize unbalanced air-sea initialization and maximize the intermedium propagation of observations. Here, we use a simplified framework where a global ocean general circulation model (NEMO) is coupled to an atmospheric boundary layer model [Cheap Atmospheric Mixed Layer (CheapAML)], which includes prognostic prediction of near-surface air temperature and moisture and allows for thermodynamic but not dynamic air-sea coupling. The control vector of an ocean variational data assimilation system is augmented to include 2-m atmospheric parameters. Cross-medium balances are formulated either through statistical cross covariances from monthly anomalies or through the application of linearized air-sea flux relationships derived from the tangent linear approximation of bulk formulas, which represents a novel solution to the coupled assimilation problem. As a proof of concept, themethodology is first applied to study the impact of in situ ocean observing networks on the near-surface atmospheric analyses and later to the complementary study of the impact of 2-m air observations on sea surface parameters, to assess benefits of strongly versus weakly coupled data assimilation. Several forecast experiments have been conducted for the period from June to December 2011. We find that especially after day 2 of the forecasts, strongly coupled data assimilation provides a beneficial impact, particularly in the tropical oceans. In most areas, the use of linearized air-sea balances outperforms the statistical relationships used, providing a motivation for implementing coupled tangent linear trajectories in four-dimensional variational data assimilation systems. Further impacts of strongly coupled data assimilation might be found by retuning the background error covariances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intraseasonal tropical variability has important implications for the mid- and high-latitude atmosphere, and in recent studies has been shown to modulate a number of weather processes in the Northern Hemisphere, such as snow depth, sea ice concentration, precipitation, atmospheric rivers, and air temperature. In such studies, the extratropical atmosphere has tended to respond to the tropical convection of the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), with a time lag of approximately 7 days. However, the time lag between the MJO and the Antarctic atmosphere has been found to vary between less than 7 and greater than 20 days. This study builds on previous work by further examining the time-lagged response of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation to tropicalMJO forcing, with specific focus on the latitude belt associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, during the months of June (austral winter) and December (austral summer) using NCEP-DOEReanalysis 2 data for the years 1979-2016. Principal findings indicate that the time lag with the strongest height anomalies depends on both the location of theMJO convection (e.g., theMJO phase) and the season, and that the lagged height anomalies in the Antarctic atmosphere are fairly consistent across different vertical levels and latitudinal bands. In addition, certain MJO phases in December displayed lagged height anomalies indicative of blocking-type atmospheric patterns, with an approximate wavenumber of 4, whereas in June most phases were associated with more progressive height anomaly centers resembling a wavenumber-3-type pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new version of the dynamic Smagorinsky model is presented that applies for nonisotropic momentum diffusion in high-resolution atmospheric circulation models. While the horizontal mixing length is computed in accordance with scale invariance in the mesoscale regime of the horizontal energy cascade, the associated dynamic vertical mixing length (DVML) is based on a recently developed scale invariance criterion and represents an application of the scaling laws of stratified macroturbulence. The DVML is validated in highresolution simulations with theKühlungsborn mechanistic general circulation model, using triangular spectral truncation at wavenumber 330 and a vertical level spacing of about 200m in the upper troposphere. For a proper choice of the test filter, the model simulates a realistic horizontal kinetic energy spectrum in the troposphere along with a realistic intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle. This result is obtained without any hyperdiffusion, and it depends only little on whether the vertical mixing length is prescribed or set to the DVML. The globally averaged Smagorinsky parameter is about cS ≅ 0.53. The latitude-height cross sections show that cSmaximizes in regions of strong mesoscale kinetic energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthlong hindcasts of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) from the atmospheric Flow-following Icosahedral Model coupled with an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (FIM-iHYCOM), and from the coupled Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), are evaluated over the 12-yr period 1999-2010. Two sets of FIM-iHYCOM hindcasts are run to test the impact of using Grell-Freitas (FIM-CGF) versus simplified Arakawa-Schubert (FIM-SAS) deep convection parameterizations. Each hindcast set consists of four time-lagged ensemble members initialized weekly every 6 h from 1200 UTC Tuesday to 0600 UTC Wednesday. The ensemble means of FIM-CGF, FIM-SAS, and CFSv2 produce skillful forecasts of a variant of the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index out to 19, 17, and 17 days, respectively; this is consistent with FIM-CGF having the lowest root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) for zonal winds at both 850 and 200 hPa. FIM-CGF and CFSv2 exhibit similar RMSEs in RMM, and their multimodel ensemble mean extends skillful RMM prediction out to 21 days. Conversely, adding FIM-SAS-with much higher RMSEs-to CFSv2 (as a multimodel ensemble) or FIM-CGF (as a multiphysics ensemble) yields either little benefit, or even a degradation, compared to the better single-model ensemble mean. This suggests that multiphysics/multimodel ensemble mean forecasts may only add value when the individual models possess similar skill and error. An atmosphere-only version of FIM-CGF loses skill after 11 days, highlighting the importance of ocean coupling. Further examination reveals some sensitivity in skill and error metrics to the choice of MJO index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fast and slow Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) episodes have been identified from 850- and 200-hPa zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for 32 winters (16 October-17 March) 1980/81-2011/12. For 26 fast cases the OLR took no more than 10 days to propagate from phase 3 (convection over the Indian Ocean) to phase 6 (convection over the western Pacific). For 8 slow cases the propagation took at least 20 days. Fast episode composite anomalies of 500-hPa height (Z500) show a developing Rossby wave in the mid-Pacific with downstream propagation through MJO phases 2-4. Changes in the frequency of occurrence of the NAO+ weather regime are modest. This Rossby wave is forced by anomalous cooling over the Maritime Continent during phases 2 and 3 (seen in phase-independent wave activity flux). The upper-level anticyclonic response to phase-3 heating is a secondary source of wave activity. The Z500 slow episode composite response to MJO phases 1 and 2 is an enhanced Aleutian low followed by a North American continental high. Following phase 4 the development of an NAO+ like pattern is seen over the Atlantic, transitioning to a strong NAO− pattern by phase 8. A dramatic increase in frequency of the NAO+ weather regime follows phases 4 and 5, while a strong increase in NAO− regime follows phases 6 and 7. The responses to MJO-related heating and cooling over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans in phases 1-4 provide a source for wave activity propagating to North America, augmented by storm-track anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that global numerical model analyses and forecasts benefit from the routine assimilation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) derived from meteorological satellites. Recent studies have also shown that the assimilation of enhanced (spatial and temporal) AMVs can benefit research-mode regional model forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity. In this study, the impact of direct assimilation of enhanced (higher resolution) AMV datasets in the NCEP operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) system is investigated. Forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone track and intensity are examined for impact by inclusion of enhanced AMVs via direct data assimilation. Experiments are conducted for AMVs derived using two methodologies ("HERITAGE" and "GOES-R"), and also for varying levels of quality control in order to assess and inform the optimization of the AMV assimilation process. Results are presented for three selected Atlantic tropical cyclone events and compared to Control forecasts without the enhanced AMVs as well as the corresponding operational HWRF forecasts. The findings indicate that the direct assimilation of high-resolution AMVs has an overall modest positive impact on HWRF forecasts, but the impact magnitudes are dependent on the 1) availability of rapid scan imagery used to produce the AMVs, 2) AMV derivation approach, 3) level of quality control employed in the assimilation, and 4) vortex initialization procedure (including the degree to which unbalanced states are allowed to enter the model analyses). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study categorized blocking high (BH) episodes during the boreal summer in northeast Asia (40°-70°N, 100°-150°E) into four types according to their wave-breaking features at the dynamic tropopause on the initial day: anticyclonic warm, cyclonic warm, anticyclonic cold, and cyclonic cold. Based on the results of a statistical analysis, it was shown that 1) the anticyclonic-warm type tended to occur in eastern Russia (55°-70°N, 127.5°-142.5°E), whereas the other three types preferentially occurred in the vicinity of Lake Baikal; 2) the two cold types generally were more common than the two warm types; and 3) the average life spans of the two anticyclonic types were longer than those of the two cyclonic types. According to a composite analysis, the four BH types were preceded by different wave train-like anomalies over the Eurasian continent over approximately one week. Correspondingly, each BH type was characterized by distinct Rossby wave propagation features. Interestingly, a northeastward propagation of the Rossby waves around the BHs was evident in the two cyclonic types. This feature differs from the quasi-meridional propagation of Rossby waves originating from suppressed convection activity over subtropical regions documented in previous studies. This study also found that every BH type was accompanied by distinct precipitation anomaly patterns over East Asia, highlighting the necessity of classifying BHs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using ensemble hindcasts made with a seasonal prediction system based on the atmosphere and ocean general circulation model, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5). Particular attention is paid to differences in predictive skill in terms of the prediction error for two prominent types of El Niño: the conventional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and the central Pacific (CP) El Niño, the latter having a maximum warming around the date line. Although the system adopts ocean anomaly assimilation for the initialization process, it maintains a significant ability to predict ENSO with a lead time of more than half a year. This is partly due to the fact that the system is little affected by the 'spring prediction barrier,' because increases in the error have little dependence on the thermocline variability. Composite analyses of each type of El Niño reveal that, compared to EP El Niños, the ability to predict CP El Niños is limited and has a shorter lead time. This is because CP El Niños have relatively small amplitudes, and thus they are more affected by atmospheric noise; this prevents development of oceanic signals that can be used for prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the atmospheric circulation characteristics of dust outbreaks (DOs) over the central Arabian Peninsula. Based on a 12-yr (1999-2011) Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) database over the Solar Village in Saudi Arabia and criteria pertinent to the aerosol optical depth at 500 nm and the Ångström exponent, 177 DOs have been identified. Factor and cluster analysis are further applied on the 1000- and 700-hPa geopotential height daily patterns of the days preceding the onset of the DOs and the days of the DOs' initiation, revealing four main types (clusters) of the atmospheric circulation evolution leading to DOs. During the winter season, the anticyclonic circulation intensifies over the Middle East causing the strengthening of the pressure gradient over the Arabian Peninsula, inducing northerly winds over the study region, thereby favoring dust entrainment in the atmosphere (cluster 1, 16 DOs, 9%). The passage of midlatitude cyclones over the northern or central Arabian Peninsula is frequently accompanied by postfrontal northerly winds also promoting the presence of DOs in the region (cluster 2, 41 DOs, 23%). The DOs during spring are likely favored by the enhancement of convective activity, as the thermal low over the Arabian Peninsula further influences the dynamics of the upper troposphere (cluster 3, 73 DOs, 41%). During summer the pressure gradient over the study region is greatly enhanced due to the extension of the subtropical Azores anticyclone over the Mediterranean. The latter is the main driver triggering the DOs in this cluster category (cluster 4, 46 DOs, 27%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have shown that assimilating enhanced satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) has improved mesoscale forecast of tropical cyclones (TC) track and intensity. The authors conduct data-denial experiments to understand where the TC analyses and forecasts benefit the most from the enhanced AMV information using an ensemble Kalman filter and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin provides enhanced AMV datasets with higher density and temporal resolution using shorter-interval image triplets for the duration of Typhoon Sinlaku and Hurricane Ike (both 2008). These AMV datasets are then spatially and vertically subsetted to create six parallel cycled assimilation-forecast experiments for each TC: all AMVs; AMVs withheld between 100 and 350 hPa (upper layer), between 350 and 700 hPa (middle layer), and between 700 and 999 hPa (lower layer); and only AMVs within (interior) and outside (exterior) 1000-km radius of the TC center. All AMV subsets are found to be useful in some capacity. The interior and upper-layer AMVs are particularly crucial for improving initial TC position, intensity, and the three-dimensional wind structure along with their forecasts. Compared with denying interior or exterior AMVs, withholding AMVs in different tropospheric layers had less impact on TC intensity and size forecasts. The ensemble forecast is less certain (larger spread) in providing accurate TC track, intensity, and size when upper-layer AMVs or interior AMVs are withheld. This information could be useful to potential targeting scenarios, such as activating and focusing satellite rapid-scan operations, and decisions regarding observing system assessments and deployments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the climatological features of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in Hong Kong in association with different TC-related parameters, and investigates the changes in TC rainfall, non-TC rainfall, and total rainfall during the past few decades in Hong Kong. On average, rainfall induced by TCs can account for about 25% of the total precipitation during summer and fall, and the contribution can be even greater in extreme cases. Composite analysis suggests that extreme TC rainfall is often related to TCs in closer proximity to Hong Kong, with higher intensity, and is associated with stronger convection and moisture convergence in the vicinity of Hong Kong. Evaluations of the observed trends of different rainfall indices suggest that the rainfall variability in Hong Kong is considerably affected by the TC rainfall, which has a decreasing trend in frequency and intensity in recent decades. Taking out the TC rainfall from the total rainfall reveals that there is an increasing trend in daily rainfall frequency and intensity for non-TC rainfall in Hong Kong. Moreover, time-dependent generalized extreme value analysis of non-TC rainfall also reveals an increase in the return values of the maximum daily rainfall in Hong Kong. Results of this study suggest that, in order to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the long-term rainfall variations in Hong Kong, the contributions of TC rainfall should definitely be taken into account in the analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to investigate the response of precipitation over the Lake Victoria basin (LVB) to the changes of lake surface temperature (LST) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. It is shown that the default LST initialized from NCEP FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis is deficient for simulating the rainfall over the LVB. Comparative experiments demonstrate the unambiguous impact of LST on the intensity and pattern of the precipitation over LVB. Intensification/weakening of precipitation over the lake occur with increasing/decreasing LST for both uniform and asymmetrical LST distribution. However, the relationship between rainfall anomalies and LST variations is nonlinear. Replacing the LST directly derived from global weather forecast models by the mean area-averaged LST of Lake Victoria (approximately 24°C) leads to improved rainfall simulation. However, LST with realistic cross-basin gradient is necessary to obtain a rainfall pattern consistent with the observations. The fact that rainfall and wind patterns over the lake are sensitive to LST distribution suggests the need to monitor the mesoscale LST pattern for accurate weather and climate prediction over LVB. It is also found that although the LST distribution exerts significant impact on the observed rainfall pattern, the area and location of the rainband are quite persistent under different LST forcing. This suggests that although the details of the rainfall pattern over LVB are strongly influenced by LST, the broad rainfall pattern is likely controlled by the atmospheric circulation and orography in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecast sensitivity of an April 2012 severe convection event in northern Texas is investigated with a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model-based ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Through ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA), which relates a forecast metric to initial and early forecast errors by linear regression, features of the flow are revealed that reflect dynamical relationships with the forecast convection. Results indicate that ESA can be successfully applied to high-resolution forecasts of convection, and the most important features are related to the synoptic-scale flow such as positioning of an upper-level low and lower-level thermodynamic characteristics of air masses. Comparisons of the maximum and minimum convectively active members in the region of interest show that the fields generated by ESA are consistent with the actual evolution of the event: members with more eastward progression of the synoptic-scale system produced a stronger convection forecast. The forecast metric of interest is modified in several ways to further evaluate the strength of the results of the sensitivity analysis. Three different variables acting as convection proxies (reflectivity, vertical velocity, and precipitation) are tested along with changing the location of the forecast metric and its spatial size. These additional tests highlight the same synoptic features of the flow with the only major differences reflecting the importance of magnitude versus position of the convective forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The West African monsoon (WAM) is a vital source of rainfall for the African Sahel. In addition to the agricultural benefit of its rains, it benefits public health because bacterial meningitis outbreaks end with the monsoon onset. Outbreaks occur between December and May, a period of low humidity. Knowledge of the onset of high humidity could aid in predicting where the outbreaks will cease. Therefore, this study investigates the variability of atmospheric moisture during the spring over West Africa, characterizing the sources of moisture, as well as circulation patterns and relative influences of tropical and midlatitude systems. A conceptual model of the evolution of the premonsoon period is presented. The meridional and temporal variability of surface moisture during the spring is modulated by multiscale interactions, as illustrated for the period from mid-April to early May 2009. As westward-propagating, synoptic disturbances move across West Africa, a corresponding peak occurs in the surface relative humidity. With the passage of each disturbance a new and more humid regime is established. Filtered anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) indicate that Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby waves, and possibly the MJO contributed to the initiation and intensification of the synoptic disturbances. During the last of the disturbances, whose passage raised the relative humidity above 40%, a critical threshold for meningitis, an extratropical cyclone also contributed to moisture influx over the Sahel. Analysis of the period 2000-09 shows the relative influences of synoptic and subseasonal circulations on the onset of high relative humidity over the Sahel during the spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the circulation patterns of the summer monsoon associated with monsoon rainfall in southern Taiwan were analyzed and two types of monsoon patterns were defined. The first type was characterized by a broad low pressure area extending northeastward from a low pressure center near southern China to southern Japan. Strong southwesterly flows were observed over the southern flank of the monsoon trough. The second type of monsoon pattern was characterized by a strong westward-extending anticyclone in the area north of Taiwan (including central China, South Korea, and Japan), and a weaker east-west-elongated monsoon trough south of Taiwan, driving the easterly flow to southern Taiwan. The modulating effect of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) on these monsoon flow patterns indicates that as ISOs propagate northwestward toward southern China, they create favorable conditions for developing and strengthening southwesterly flows and convection. However, because of the latitudinal limit of northwestward-propagating ISOs, only the edge of the strongest convection over the southern flank of the ISO cyclonic circulation reaches southern Taiwan during the westerly phase. Thus, although the westerly ISO pattern appears to be stronger than the easterly pattern, it brings less rainfall to southern Taiwan. Through the tightening of pressure gradients, the ISO typically generates anomalous cyclones (anticyclones) that can affect the southwesterly and northeasterly flows near its southern (northern) and northern (southern) rims. Therefore, fluctuations in the low-frequency background flow can exert a notable effect on the monsoon rainfall and associated circulation systems near Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A case study of orographic convection initiation (CI) that occurred along the eastern slopes of the Vosges Mountains in France on 6 August 2007 during the Convective and Orographically-Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) is presented. Global positioning system (GPS) receivers and two Doppler on Wheels (DOW) mobile radars sampled the preconvective and storm environments and were respectively used to retrieve three-dimensional tomographic water vapor and wind fields. These retrieved data were supplemented with temperature, moisture, and winds from radiosondes from a site in the eastern Rhine Valley. High-resolution numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were used to further investigate the physical processes leading to convective precipitation. This unique, time-varying combination of derived water vapor and winds from observations illustrated an increase in low-level moisture and convergence between upslope easterlies and downslope westerlies along the eastern slope of the Vosges Mountains. Uplift associated with these shallow, colliding boundary layer flows eventually led to the initiation of moist convection. WRF reproduced many features of the observed complicated flow, such as cyclonic (anticyclonic) flow around the southern (northern) end of the Vosges Mountains and the east-side convergent flow below the ridgeline. The WRF simulations also illustrated spatial and temporal variability in buoyancy and the removal of the lids prior to convective development. The timing and location of CI from the WRF simulations was surprisingly close to that observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A climatology of tornadoes in Turkey is presented using records from a wide variety of sources (e.g., the Turkish State Meteorological Service, European Severe Weather Database, newspaper archives, Internet searches, etc.). The climatology includes the annual, diurnal, geographical, and intensity distributions of both mesocyclonic and nonmesocyclonic tornadoes. From 1818 to 2013, 385 tornado cases were obtained. The tornadoes range from F0 to F3, with F1 being the most frequently reported or inferred intensity. Mesocyclonic tornadoes are most likely in May and June, and a secondary maximum in frequency is present in October and November. Nonmesocyclonic tornadoes (waterspouts) are most common in the winter along the (southern) Mediterranean coast and in the fall along the Black Sea (northern) coast. Tornadoes (both mesocyclonic and nonmesocyclonic) are most likely in the afternoon and early evening hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new application of the Helmholtz theorem that divides the horizontal wind into purely rotational, purely divergent, and harmonic deformational flow is put forward in this study. The formulas and methods, with consideration of avoiding the nonunique problem in solving the two Poisson equations with coupled boundary conditions, are constructed and tested for applicability and accuracy in an ideal experiment. Numerical tests show that the three extracted components together with the reconstructed wind almost recover the ideal fields by using the extended Helmholtz theorem, while other methods fail. The physical meaning of the extracted externally induced deformational flow is explained in the context of its connection to frontogenesis in a real weather event. It may provide potential usage in analyzing certain types of real weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gradient wind is defined as a horizontal wind having the same direction as the geostrophic wind but with a magnitude consistent with a balance of three forces: the pressure gradient force, the Coriolis force, and the centrifugal force arising from the curvature of a parcel trajectory. This definition is not sufficient to establish a single way of computing the gradient wind. Different results arise depending upon what is taken to be the parcel trajectory and its curvature. To clarify these distinctions, contour and natural gradient winds are defined and subdivided into steady and nonsteady cases. Contour gradient winds are based only on the geostrophic streamfunction. Natural gradient winds are obtained using the actual wind. Even in cases for which the wind field is available along with the geostrophic streamfunction, it may be useful to obtain the gradient wind for comparison to the existing analyzed or forecast wind or as a force-balanced reference state. It is shown that the nonanomalous (normal) solution in the case of nonsteady natural gradient wind serves as an upper bound for the actual wind speed. Otherwise, supergradient wind speeds are possible, meaning that a contour gradient wind or the steady natural gradient wind used as an approximation for an actual wind may not be capable of representing the full range of actual wind magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]