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Canada is committed to managing its resources using a Precautionary Approach (PA). However, when applying this approach to Arctic marine mammals, the Government of Canada must also respect the land claims agreements it has signed with Canada’s Inuit. Under these agreements the co-management boards are responsible for wildlife management within the land claim area. In addition to protecting the rights of hunters to harvest, the land claims agreements also call for the development of management systems that respect the principles of conservation and ensure sustainability of the resource, potentially resulting in a management paradox. We present criteria by which the status of a population can be assessed, and an appropriate PA framework applied. If sufficient data are available to understand the population dynamics of a given stock (i.e., a Data Rich situation), management decisions can be based upon an appropriate population model with quantitatively estimated reference levels. In cases where the population dynamics are poorly understood (i.e., Data Poor), a more conservative approach, referred to as the Potential Biological Removal (PBR) should be used to provide advice on sustainable harvest levels. Generally, only the most recent estimate of abundance is used in the PBR calculation which may ignore other data. We propose that if sufficient data are available to fit a population model, while still not sufficient to be considered Data Rich, the modelled estimate of current abundance can be used for a more robust PBR estimate. We also review guidelines for the choice of the recovery factor which is part of the PBR calculation. The apparent management paradox can be addressed within the context of a Management Procedure or Management Strategy Evaluation where Indigenous Knowledge and Western Science can contribute to setting management objectives, decision rules and appropriate time-frames that can be evaluated within a simulation environment.

The hunting of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) is an integral part of Inuit culture. An up-to-date abundance estimate of the entire Eastern Canada – West Greenland (EC-WG) bowhead population is necessary to support sustainable management of this harvest. The High Arctic Cetacean Survey (HACS) was conducted in August 2013, primarily to update abundance estimates for known stocks of Baffin Bay narwhal (Monodon monoceros). As the ranges of narwhal and bowhead largely overlap, the survey area was expanded to cover the summer range of bowhead whales. Bowhead whale abundance was estimated using 3 aircraft to cover the large survey area within a short time frame. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection probability away from the track line. Double platform with mark-recapture methods were used to correct for the proportion of whales missed by visual observers on the track line (perception bias). Abundance in Isabella Bay, an area known for high bowhead density, was estimated using density surface modelling to account for its complex shape and uneven coverage. Estimates were corrected for availability bias (whales that were not available for detection because they were submerged when the aircraft passed overhead) using a recent analysis of satellite-linked time depth recorders transmitting information on the diving behaviour of bowhead whales in the study area in August of the same survey year. The fully corrected abundance estimate for the EC-WG bowhead whale population was 6,446 (95% CI: 3,838–10,827). Possible sources of uncertainty include incomplete coverage and the diving behaviour of bowhead whales. These results confirm earlier indications that the EC-WG stock is continuing to recover from past overexploitation.

In summer, narwhals (Monodon monoceros) migrate from Baffin Bay to northeastern Canada and northwest Greenland, where they are hunted by Inuit for subsistence. To prevent localized depletion, management of narwhals is based on summer stocks. The High Arctic Cetacean Survey (HACS), conducted in August 2013, was the first survey to estimate abundance of all 4 Canadian Baffin Bay narwhal summer stocks, as well as putative stocks in Jones Sound and Smith Sound, in the same summer. Narwhal abundance was estimated using a double-platform aerial survey. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection probability away from the track line. Mark-recapture methods were used to correct for the proportion of narwhals missed by visual observers on the track line (i.e., perception bias). We used a data-driven approach to identify single and duplicate sightings, using 4 covariates to compare differences in sightings made by front and rear observers based on: time of sighting, declination angle, group size, and species identity. Abundance in fjords was estimated using density surface modelling to account for their complex shape and uneven coverage. Estimates were corrected for availability bias (narwhals that are not available for detection because they are submerged when the aircraft passes overhead) using a new analysis of August dive behaviour data from narwhals equipped with satellite-linked time depth recorders. Corrected abundance estimates were 12,694 (95% CI: 6,324–25,481) for the Jones Sound stock; 16,360 (95% CI: 3,833–69,836) for the Smith Sound stock; 49,768 (95% CI: 32,945–75,182) for the Somerset Island stock; 35,043 (95% CI: 14,188–86,553) for the Admiralty Inlet stock; 10,489 (95% CI: 6,342–17,347) for the Eclipse Sound stock; and 17,555 (95% CI: 8,473–36,373) for the East Baffin Island stock. Total abundance for these 6 stocks was estimated at 141,908 (95% CI: 102,464–196,536). Sources of uncertainty arise from the high level of clustering observed, in particular in Admiralty Inlet, Eclipse Sound, and East Baffin Island, as well as the difficulty in identifying duplicate sightings between observers when large aggregations were encountered.