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Forest fires constitute a major environmental and socioeconomic hazard in the Mediterranean. Weather and climate are among the main factors influencing forest fire potential. As fire danger is expected to increase under changing climate, seasonal forecasting of meteorological conditions conductive to fires is of paramount importance for implementing effective fire prevention policies. The aim of the current study is to provide high-resolution (∼9 km) probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts, utilizing the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) for the Attica region, one of the most fire-prone regions in Greece and the Mediterranean, employing the fifth-generation ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5). Results indicate that, depending on the lead time of the forecast, both the FWI and ISI (Initial Spread Index) present statistically significant high discrimination scores and can be considered reliable in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions. When comparing the year-by-year fire danger predictions with the historical fire occurrence recorded by the Hellenic Fire Service database, both seasonal FWI and ISI forecasts are skilful in identifying years with a high number of fire occurrences. Overall, fire danger and its subcomponents can potentially be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management regarding preparedness and resources allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An integrated modeling approach for forecasting flood events is presented in the current study. An advanced flood forecasting model, which is based on the coupling of hydrological and atmospheric components, was used for a twofold objective: first to investigate the potential of a coupled hydrometeorological model to be used for flood forecasting at two medium-size drainage basins in the area of Attica (Greece) and second to investigate the influence of the use of the coupled hydrometeorological model on the precipitation forecast skill. For this reason, we used precipitation and hydrometric in situ data for six flood events at two selected drainage regions of Attica. The simulations were carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (WRF-only) and the WRF-Hydro system in a fully coupled mode, under which surface, subsurface, and channel hydrological processes were parameterized at a fine-resolution grid of 95 m approximately. Results showed that the coupled WRF-Hydro system was capable of producing the observed discharge during the flood episodes, after the adequate calibration method applied at the studied basins. This outcome provides confidence that the model configuration under the two-way atmospheric–hydrological coupling is robust and, thus, can be used for operational flood forecasting purposes in the area of Attica. In addition, the WRF-Hydro model showed a tendency to slightly improve the simulated precipitation in comparison to the precipitation produced by the atmospheric-only version of the model (WRF), demonstrating the capability of the coupled WRF-Hydro model to enhance the precipitation forecast skill for operational flood predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]