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Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately 1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial-interglacial cycles 2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

Between 34 and 15 million years (Myr) ago, when planetary temperatures were 3-4 degrees C warmer than at present and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were twice as high as today, the Antarctic ice sheets may have been unstable. Oxygen isotope records from deep-sea sediment cores suggest that during this time fluctuations in global temperatures and high-latitude continental ice volumes were influenced by orbital cycles. But it has hitherto not been possible to calibrate the inferred changes in ice volume with direct evidence for oscillations of the Antarctic ice sheets. Here we present sediment data from shallow marine cores in the western Ross Sea that exhibit well dated cyclic variations, and which link the extent of the East Antarctic ice sheet directly to orbital cycles during the Oligocene/Miocene transition (24.1-23.7 Myr ago). Three rapidly deposited glacimarine sequences are constrained to a period of less than 450 kyr by our age model, suggesting that orbital influences at the frequencies of obliquity (40 kyr) and eccentricity (125 kyr) controlled the oscillations of the ice margin at that time. An erosional hiatus covering 250 kyr provides direct evidence for a major episode of global cooling and ice-sheet expansion about 23.7 Myr ago, which had previously been inferred from oxygen isotope data (Mi1 event).