Search

Urbanization and climate change are together exacerbating water scarcity—where water demand exceeds availability—for the world's cities. We quantify global urban water scarcity in 2016 and 2050 under four socioeconomic and climate change scenarios, and explored potential solutions. Here we show the global urban population facing water scarcity is projected to increase from 933 million (one third of global urban population) in 2016 to 1.693–2.373 billion people (one third to nearly half of global urban population) in 2050, with India projected to be most severely affected in terms of growth in water-scarce urban population (increase of 153–422 million people). The number of large cities exposed to water scarcity is projected to increase from 193 to 193–284, including 10–20 megacities. More than two thirds of water-scarce cities can relieve water scarcity by infrastructure investment, but the potentially significant environmental trade-offs associated with large-scale water scarcity solutions must be guarded against. This paper quantifies global urban water scarcity in 2016 and 2050 and explores potential solutions. One third to nearly half of the global urban population is projected to face water scarcity problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Millions of skeletal remains from South Asia were exported in red markets (the underground economy of human tissues/organs) to educational institutions globally for over a century. It is time to recognize the personhood of the people who were systematically made into anatomical objects and acknowledge the scientific racism in creating and continuing to use them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cenozoic India-Eurasia collision has had profound impacts on shaping the Tibetan plateau, but its early history remains controversial due to uneven availability of constraints. Recent plate reconstructions reveal two prominent counterclockwise rotation (azimuthal change) rate peaks of the Indian plate at 52-44 and 33-20 Ma, respectively, which could bear key information about this collision history. Using fully dynamic three-dimensional numerical modeling, we show that the first rotation rate peak reflected the initial diachronous collision from the western-central to eastern Indian front, and the second peak reflected the full collision leading to strong coupling between India and Eurasia. Further comparison with observation suggests that the initial and complete India-Eurasia collision likely occurred at 55 ± 5 and 40 ± 5 Ma, respectively, an inference consistent with key geological observations. We suggest that this collision history is instructive for studying the tectonic history of the Tibetan plateau and its surrounding areas. Dynamic 3D modelling of counterclockwise rotation of the Indian plate, which peaked at 52-44 and 33-20 Ma, reveals the diachronous India-Eurasia collision from western-centre to east since 55 ± 5 Ma and complete collision since 40 ± 5 Ma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade affects CO2 emissions by redistributing production activities to places where the emission intensities are different from the place of consumption. This study focuses on the net emission change as the result of the narrowing gap in emission intensities between the exporter and importer. Here we show that the relocation of production activities from the global North (developed countries) to the global South (developing countries) in the early 2000s leads to an increase in global emissions due to the higher emission intensities in China and India. The related net emissions are about one-third of the total emissions embodied in the South-North trade. However, the narrowing emission intensities between South-North and the changing trade patterns results in declining net emissions in trade in the past decade. The convergence of emission intensities in the global South alleviates concerns that increasing South-South trade would lead to increased carbon leakage and carbon emissions. The mitigation opportunity to green the supply chain lies in sectors such as electricity, mineral products and chemical products, but calls for a universal assessment of emission intensities and concerted effort. International trade redistributes production activities to regions with varying emission intensities. This study finds that the convergence of emission intensities between the global South - North and changes in trade patterns have resulted in declining net emissions in trade in the past decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finger millet is a key food security crop widely grown in eastern Africa, India and Nepal. Long considered a 'poor man's crop', finger millet has regained attention over the past decade for its climate resilience and the nutritional qualities of its grain. To bring finger millet breeding into the 21st century, here we present the assembly and annotation of a chromosome-scale reference genome. We show that this ~1.3 million years old allotetraploid has a high level of homoeologous gene retention and lacks subgenome dominance. Population structure is mainly driven by the differential presence of large wild segments in the pericentromeric regions of several chromosomes. Trait mapping, followed by variant analysis of gene candidates, reveals that loss of purple coloration of anthers and stigma is associated with loss-of-function mutations in the finger millet orthologs of the maize R1/B1 and Arabidopsis GL3/EGL3 anthocyanin regulatory genes. Proanthocyanidin production in seed is not affected by these gene knockouts. Finger millet is an orphan crop key to food security of people living in eastern Africa, India and Nepal. Here, the authors assemble its genome, conduct population genetics analyses to infer the diversification history, and reveal a candidate gene for purple coloration of anthers and stigma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The type of lithosphere subducted between India and Tibet since the Paleocene remains controversial; it has been suggested to be either entirely continental, oceanic, or a mixture of the two. As the subduction history of this lost lithosphere strongly shaped Tibetan intraplate tectonism, we attempt to further constrain its nature and density structure with numerical models that aim to reproduce the observed history of magmatism and crustal thickening in addition to present-day plateau properties between 83°E and 88°E. By matching time-evolving geological patterns, here we show that Tibetan tectonism away from the Himalayan syntaxis is consistent with the initial indentation of a craton-like terrane at 55 ± 5 Ma, followed by a buoyant tectonic plate with a thin crust, e.g., a broad continental margin (Himalandia). This new geodynamic scenario can explain the seemingly contradictory observations that had led to competing hypotheses like the subduction of Greater India versus largely oceanic subduction prior to Indian indentation. By evaluating model predictions with multiple geological data, the study shows that Tibetan tectonism is most consistent with the initial indentation of a cratonic terrane, followed by subduction of a buoyant tectonic plate resembling a continental margin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers options for a future Indian power economy in which renewables, wind and solar, could meet 80% of anticipated 2040 power demand supplanting the country's current reliance on coal. Using a cost optimization model, here we show that renewables could provide a source of power cheaper or at least competitive with what could be supplied using fossil-based alternatives. The ancillary advantage would be a significant reduction in India's future power sector related emissions of CO2. Using a model in which prices for wind turbines and solar PV systems are assumed to continue their current decreasing trend, we conclude that an investment in renewables at a level consistent with meeting 80% of projected 2040 power demand could result in a reduction of 85% in emissions of CO2 relative to what might be expected if the power sector were to continue its current coal dominated trajectory. India currently relies heavily on fossil-based sources for its power needs. Here the authors show that renewable energy in India could be cheaper than fossil-based alternatives and could reduce CO2 emissions by 85% by 2040. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation change can alter surface energy balance and subsequently affect the local climate. This biophysical impact has been well studied for forestation cases, but the sign and magnitude for persistent earth greening remain controversial. Based on long-term remote sensing observations, we quantify the unidirectional impact of vegetation greening on radiometric surface temperature over 2001–2018. Here, we show a global negative temperature response with large spatial and seasonal variability. Snow cover, vegetation greenness, and shortwave radiation are the major driving factors of the temperature sensitivity by regulating the relative dominance of radiative and non-radiative processes. Combined with the observed greening trend, we find a global cooling of −0.018 K/decade, which slows down 4.6 ± 3.2% of the global warming. Regionally, this cooling effect can offset 39.4 ± 13.9% and 19.0 ± 8.2% of the corresponding warming in India and China. These results highlight the necessity of considering this vegetation-related biophysical climate effect when informing local climate adaptation strategies. Using satellite observations over the recent two decades, the authors quantify the biophysical impact of earth greening on land surface temperature and show a considerable cooling effect in India and China, important for climate mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid pace of urbanization makes it imperative that we better understand the influence of climate forcing on urban malaria transmission. Despite extensive study of temperature effects in vector-borne infections in general, consideration of relative humidity remains limited. With process-based dynamical models informed by almost two decades of monthly surveillance data, we address the role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of epidemic malaria in two semi-arid cities of India. We show a strong and significant effect of humidity during the pre-transmission season on malaria burden in coastal Surat and more arid inland Ahmedabad. Simulations of the climate-driven transmission model with the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimates) of the parameters retrospectively capture the observed variability of disease incidence, and also prospectively predict that of 'out-of-fit' cases in more recent years, with high accuracy. Our findings indicate that relative humidity is a critical factor in the spread of urban malaria and potentially other vector-borne epidemics, and that climate change and lack of hydrological planning in cities might jeopardize malaria elimination efforts. Climate conditions and urbanization can be major drivers of vector-borne infections. Here the authors demonstrate that an often-neglected climate variable, humidity, is an important factor for malaria epidemics in two urban areas in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent events like heatwaves and abnormal rainfall are a glimpse of the devastating effects of human induced climate change. No country is immune to its effects, but a developing country like India is particularly vulnerable. This research, for the individual states of India, explores the technical feasibility and economic viability of a renewable transition pathway for the power sector. Based on the assumptions of this study, we show that a renewables-based power system by 2050 is lower in cost than the current coal dominated system, has zero greenhouse gas emissions and provides reliable electricity to around 1.7 billion people. Electricity generation will be based on solar PV, wind energy, and hydropower, while batteries and multi-fuel reciprocating internal combustion engines based on synthetic fuels provide the required flexibility to the power system. This transition would address multiple imperatives: affordability, accessibility, and sustainability without compromising economic growth. A new study assesses the feasibility of a fully renewable based power system by 2050 across India, finding this option to be cost competitive with the status quo and with zero GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hot extremes are anticipated to be more frequent and more intense under climate change, making the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, with a 400 million population, vulnerable to heat stress. Recent studies suggest that irrigation has significant cooling and moistening effects over this region. While large-scale irrigation is prevalent in the Indo-Gangetic Plain during the two major cropping seasons, Kharif (Jun-Sep) and Rabi (Nov-Feb), hot extremes are reported in the pre-monsoon months (Apr-May) when irrigation activities are minimal. Here, using observed irrigation data and regional climate model simulations, we show that irrigation effects on heat stress during pre-monsoon are 4.9 times overestimated with model-simulated irrigation as prescribed in previous studies. We find that irrigation increases relative humidity by only 2.5%, indicating that irrigation is a non-crucial factor enhancing the moist heat stress. On the other hand, we detect causal effects of aerosol abundance on the daytime land surface temperature. Our study highlights the need to consider actual irrigation data in testing model-driven hypotheses related to the land-atmosphere feedback driven by human water management. Pre-monsoon irrigation over the Indo-Gangetic Plain is often misrepresented in model-driven hypothesis. Using actual census-based data and realistic model simulations, the authors show that irrigation has limited role in enhancing heat stress in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many adults in India have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine with or without a prior history SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, there is limited information on the effect of prior immunity on antibody response upon vaccination in India. As immunization of individuals continues, we aimed to assess whether pre-existing antibodies are further boosted by a single dose of BBV152, an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, and, if these antibodies can neutralize SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants. Here we show that natural infection during the second wave in 2021 led to generation of neutralizing antibodies against other lineages of SARS-CoV-2 including the Omicron variant, albeit at a significantly lower level for the latter. A single dose of BBV152 boosted antibody titers against the Delta and the Omicron variants but the antibody levels remained low against the Omicron variant. Boosting of antibodies showed negative correlation with baseline neutralizing antibody titers. Serosurveillance studies show a heterogenous mix of the Indian population with immunity to COVID-19 due to vaccination or natural infection. Here, the authors enrol subjects representative of the general population, to assess whether pre-existing antibodies are further boosted by a single dose of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, BBV152. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant groundwater depletion in regions where grains are procured for public distribution is a primary sustainability challenge in India. We identify specific changes in the Indian Government's Procurement & Distribution System as a primary solution lever. Irrigation, using groundwater, facilitated by subsidized electricity, is seen as vital for meeting India's food security goals. Using over a century of daily climate data and recent spatially detailed economic, crop yield, and related parameters, we use an optimization model to show that by shifting the geographies where crops are procured from and grown, the government's procurement targets could be met on average even without irrigation, while increasing net farm income and arresting groundwater depletion. Allowing irrigation increases the average net farm income by 30%. The associated reduction in electricity subsidies in areas with significant groundwater depletion can help offset the needed spatial re-distribution of farm income, a key political obstacle to changes in the procurement system. Using optimization models with climate, crop & economic data, the authors show that India can stop groundwater depletion, reduce energy use and meet food/nutrition targets by changing where it sources crops for its food procurement and distribution system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dog-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people each year in India, representing one third of the estimated global rabies burden. Whilst the World Health Organization (WHO), World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have set a target for global dog-mediated human rabies elimination by 2030, examples of large-scale dog vaccination programs demonstrating elimination remain limited in Africa and Asia. We describe the development of a data-driven rabies elimination program from 2013 to 2019 in Goa State, India, culminating in human rabies elimination and a 92% reduction in monthly canine rabies cases. Smartphone technology enabled systematic spatial direction of remote teams to vaccinate over 95,000 dogs at 70% vaccination coverage, and rabies education teams to reach 150,000 children annually. An estimated 2249 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were averted over the program period at 526 USD per DALY, making the intervention 'very cost-effective' by WHO definitions. This One Health program demonstrates that human rabies elimination is achievable at the state level in India. Dog vaccination is an effective rabies prevention measure, but widespread vaccination campaigns are challenging in settings like India with large free-roaming dog populations. Here, the authors describe a One Health campaign in Goa state which led to a large reduction of cases in dogs and elimination in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Battery-electric vehicles (BEV) have emerged as a favoured technology solution to mitigate transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in many non-Annex 1 countries, including India. GHG mitigation potentials of electric 4-wheelers in India depend critically on when and where they are charged: 40% reduction in the north-eastern states and more than 15% increase in the eastern/western regions today, with higher overall GHGs emitted when charged overnight and in the summer. Self-charging gasoline-electric hybrids can lead to 33% GHG reductions, though they haven't been fully considered a mitigation option in India. Electric 2-wheelers can already enable a 20% reduction in GHG emissions given their small battery size and superior efficiency. India's electrification plan demands up to 125GWh of annual battery capacities by 2030, nearly 10% of projected worldwide productions. India requires a phased electrification with a near-term focus on 2-wheelers and a clear trajectory to phase-out coal-power for an organised mobility transition. India's plans to electrify transport is complicated by its reliance on coal-power. Here the authors call for diverse policy and technology solutions, including a focus on cleaner grids, electric 2-wheelers, and hybrid 4-wheelers in the near-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India as a hotspot for air pollution has heavy black carbon (BC) and dust (DU) loadings. BC has been identified to significantly impact the Indian climate. However, whether BC-climate interactions regulate Indian DU during the premonsoon season is unclear. Here, using long-term Reanalysis data, we show that Indian DU is positively correlated to northern Indian BC while negatively correlated to southern Indian BC. We further identify the mechanism of BC-dust-climate interactions revealed during COVID-19. BC reduction in northern India due to lockdown decreases solar heating in the atmosphere and increases surface albedo of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), inducing a descending atmospheric motion. Colder air from the TP together with warmer southern Indian air heated by biomass burning BC results in easterly wind anomalies, which reduces dust transport from the Middle East and Sahara and local dust emissions. The premonsoon aerosol-climate interactions delay the outbreak of the subsequent Indian summer monsoon. Black carbon produced by human activities impacts climate. Here, the authors find that black carbon-climate interactions regulate Indian dust during the premonsoon season and further affect the outbreak of the subsequent Indian summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Delta and Kappa variants of SARS-CoV-2 co-emerged in India in late 2020, with the Delta variant underlying the resurgence of COVID-19, even in countries with high vaccination rates. In this study, we assess structural and biochemical aspects of viral fitness for these two variants using cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM), ACE2-binding and antibody neutralization analyses. Both variants demonstrate escape of antibodies targeting the N-terminal domain, an important immune hotspot for neutralizing epitopes. Compared to wild-type and Kappa lineages, Delta variant spike proteins show modest increase in ACE2 affinity, likely due to enhanced electrostatic complementarity at the RBD-ACE2 interface, which we characterize by cryo-EM. Unexpectedly, Kappa variant spike trimers form a structural head-to-head dimer-of-trimers assembly, which we demonstrate is a result of the E484Q mutation and with unknown biological implications. The combination of increased antibody escape and enhanced ACE2 binding provides an explanation, in part, for the rapid global dominance of the Delta variant. Saville, Mannar et al. provide a structural basis for enhanced antibody evasion and ACE2 binding by the Delta SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. They further identify a head-to-head dimer-of-trimers cryoEM reconstruction unique to the Kappa variant spike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine showed 50% (95%CI: 2–74%) efficacy in a phase 2B trial in preventing active pulmonary tuberculosis disease, but potential cost-effectiveness of adolescent immunisation is unknown. We estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of six scenarios of routine adolescent M72/AS01E-like vaccination in South Africa and India. All scenarios suggested an M72/AS01E-like vaccine would be highly (94–100%) cost-effective in South Africa compared to a cost-effectiveness threshold of $2480/disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. For India, a prevention of disease vaccine, effective irrespective of recipient's M. tuberculosis infection status at time of administration, was also highly likely (92–100%) cost-effective at a threshold of $264/DALY averted; however, a prevention of disease vaccine, effective only if the recipient was already infected, had 0–6% probability of cost-effectiveness. In both settings, vaccinating 50% of 18 year-olds was similarly cost-effective to vaccinating 80% of 15 year-olds, and more cost-effective than vaccinating 80% of 10 year-olds. Vaccine trials should include adolescents to ensure vaccines can be delivered to this efficient-to-target population. The M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine has shown 50% efficacy in preventing pulmonary TB disease in infected 18–50 year olds. Here, the authors demonstrate that, in most scenarios modelled, vaccination of adolescents would also be cost effective in two high incidence settings, South Africa and India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid pace of urbanization makes it imperative that we better understand the influence of climate forcing on urban malaria transmission. Despite extensive study of temperature effects in vector-borne infections in general, consideration of relative humidity remains limited. With process-based dynamical models informed by almost two decades of monthly surveillance data, we address the role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of epidemic malaria in two semi-arid cities of India. We show a strong and significant effect of humidity during the pre-transmission season on malaria burden in coastal Surat and more arid inland Ahmedabad. Simulations of the climate-driven transmission model with the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimates) of the parameters retrospectively capture the observed variability of disease incidence, and also prospectively predict that of 'out-of-fit' cases in more recent years, with high accuracy. Our findings indicate that relative humidity is a critical factor in the spread of urban malaria and potentially other vector-borne epidemics, and that climate change and lack of hydrological planning in cities might jeopardize malaria elimination efforts. Climate conditions and urbanization can be major drivers of vector-borne infections. Here the authors demonstrate that an often-neglected climate variable, humidity, is an important factor for malaria epidemics in two urban areas in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India has the world's highest number of undernourished children and the largest school feeding program, the Mid-Day Meal (MDM) scheme. As school feeding programs target children outside the highest-return "first 1000-days" window, they have not been included in the global agenda to address stunting. School meals benefit education and nutrition in participants, but no studies have examined whether benefits carry over to their children. Using nationally representative data on mothers and their children spanning 1993 to 2016, we assess whether MDM supports intergenerational improvements in child linear growth. Here we report that height-for-age z-score (HAZ) among children born to mothers with full MDM exposure was greater (+0.40 SD) than that in children born to non-exposed mothers. Associations were stronger in low socioeconomic strata and likely work through women's education, fertility, and health service utilization. MDM was associated with 13--32% of the HAZ improvement in India from 2006 to 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep Earth degassing is a critical forcing factor for atmospheric CO2 variations and palaeoclimate changes in Earth's history. For the Cenozoic, the key driving mechanism of atmospheric CO2 variations remains controversial. Here we analyse three stages of collision-related magmatism in Tibet, which correspond temporally with the three major stages of atmospheric CO2 variations in the Cenozoic and explore the possibility of a causal link between these phenomena. To this end we present geochemical data for the three stages of magmatic rocks in Tibet, which we use to inform a model calculating the continental collision-induced CO2 emission flux associated with the evolving Neo-Tethyan to continental subduction over the Cenozoic. The correlation between our modelled CO2 emission rates and the global atmospheric CO2 curve is consistent with the hypothesis that the India-Asia collision was the primary driver of changes in atmospheric CO2 over the Cenozoic. "Earth degassing is a critical carbon source, but its contribution to Cenozoic atmospheric CO2 variations is not well known. Here, the authors analyse CO2 fluxes on the Tibetan Plateau and suggest that the India-Asia collision was the primary driver of changes in atmospheric CO2 over the past 65 Ma." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Naturally-occurring membranes in the xylem tissue of gymnosperm sapwood enable its use as an abundantly-available material to construct filters, with potential to facilitate access to safe drinking water in resource-constrained settings. However, the material's behavior as a filter is poorly understood, and challenges such as short shelf life have not been addressed. Here, we characterize the operational attributes of xylem filters and show that the material exhibits a highly non-linear dependence of flow resistance on thickness upon drying, and a tendency for self-blocking. We develop guidelines for the design and fabrication of xylem filters, demonstrate gravity-operated filters with shelf life >2 years, and show that the filters can provide >3 log removal of E. coli, MS-2 phage, and rotavirus from synthetic test waters and coliform bacteria from contaminated spring, tap, and ground waters. Through interviews and workshops in India, we use a user-centric approach to design a prototype filtration device with daily- to weekly-replaceable xylem filters, and uncover indicators of social acceptance of xylem as a natural water filter. Our work enhances the understanding of xylem as a filtration material, and opens opportunities for engineering a diverse range of low-cost, biodegradable xylem-based filtration products on a global scale. Gymnosperm sapwood is an abundantly available material to construct water filters but the material's behaviour as a filter is poorly understood and challenges such as short shelf live have not been addressed. Here, the authors develop guidelines for the design and fabrication of xylem filters and demonstrate gravity-operated filters with a shelf life of more than two years for the removal of contaminants from spring, tap and ground water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis that poses a great challenge to the public health system of affected countries. Safe and effective vaccines are needed to overcome this crisis. Here, we develop and assess the protective efficacy and immunogenicity of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in rhesus macaques. Twenty macaques were divided into four groups of five animals each. One group was administered a placebo, while three groups were immunized with three different vaccine candidates of BBV152 at 0 and 14 days. All the macaques were challenged with SARS-CoV-2 fourteen days after the second dose. The protective response was observed with increasing SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG and neutralizing antibody titers from 3rd-week post-immunization. Viral clearance was observed from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, nasal swab, throat swab and lung tissues at 7 days post-infection in the vaccinated groups. No evidence of pneumonia was observed by histopathological examination in vaccinated groups, unlike the placebo group which exhibited interstitial pneumonia and localization of viral antigen in the alveolar epithelium and macrophages by immunohistochemistry. This vaccine candidate BBV152 has completed Phase I/II (NCT04471519) clinical trials in India and is presently in phase III, data of this study substantiates the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of the vaccine candidates. SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are needed to fight the pandemic. Here, authors show protective efficacy and immunogenicity of the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine BBV152 in rhesus macaques. This vaccine is currently in clinical development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty, the quintessential denominator of a developing nation, has been traditionally defined against an arbitrary poverty line; individuals (or countries) below this line are deemed poor and those above it, not so! This has two pitfalls. First, absolute reliance on a single poverty line, based on basic food consumption, and not on total consumption distribution, is only a partial poverty index at best. Second, a single expense descriptor is an exogenous quantity that does not evolve from income-expenditure statistics. Using extensive income-expenditure statistics from India, here we show how a self-consistent endogenous poverty line can be derived from an agent-based stochastic model of market exchange, combining all expenditure modes (basic food, other food and non-food), whose parameters are probabilistically estimated using advanced Machine Learning tools. Our mathematical study establishes a consumption based poverty measure that combines labor, commodity, and asset market outcomes, delivering an excellent tool for economic policy formulation. Current inequality and market consumption modelling appears to be subjective. Here the authors combined all three axes of poverty modelling - Engel-Krishnakumar's microeconomics, Aoki-Chattopadhyay's mathematical precept and found that multivariate construction is a key component of economic data analysis, implying all modes of income and expenditure need to be considered to arrive at a proper weighted prediction of poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India is located at a critical geographic crossroads for understanding the dispersal of Homo sapiens out of Africa and into Asia and Oceania. Here we report evidence for long-term human occupation, spanning the last ~80 thousand years, at the site of Dhaba in the Middle Son River Valley of Central India. An unchanging stone tool industry is found at Dhaba spanning the Toba eruption of ~74 ka (i.e., the Youngest Toba Tuff, YTT) bracketed between ages of 79.6 ± 3.2 and 65.2 ± 3.1 ka, with the introduction of microlithic technology ~48 ka. The lithic industry from Dhaba strongly resembles stone tool assemblages from the African Middle Stone Age (MSA) and Arabia, and the earliest artefacts from Australia, suggesting that it is likely the product of Homo sapiens as they dispersed eastward out of Africa. When modern humans colonized India is debated. Here, Clarkson and colleagues report an archaeological site in India that has been occupied for approximately 80,000 years and contains a stone tool assemblage attributed to Homo sapiens that matches artefacts from Africa, Arabia, and Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF 3 ), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF 2 ). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 ± 0.9 Gg y r − 1 ). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg CO 2 -equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017. International agreements have been implemented to reduce emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) to reduce their radiative forcing. Even though reported HFC-23 emissions are at a historical low, observations indicate that emissions have actually increased over recent years to higher levels than previously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To predict how monsoons will evolve in the 21st century, we need to understand how they have changed in the past. In paleoclimate literature, the major focus has been on the role of solar forcing on monsoons but not on the amplification by feedbacks internal to the climate system. Here we have used the results from a transient climate simulation to show that feedbacks amplify the effect of change in insolation on the Indian summer monsoon. We show that during the deglacial (22 ka to 10 ka) monsoons were predominantly influenced by rising water vapor due to increasing sea surface temperature, whereas in the Holocene (10 ka to 0 ka) cloud feedback was more important. These results are consistent with another transient simulation, thus increasing confidence despite potential model biases. We have demonstrated that insolation drives monsoon through different pathways during cold and warm periods, thereby highlighting the changing role of internal factors. Past Indian summer monsoon (ISM) changes are not well understood. The application of an energetic framework to a transient model simulation shows that ISM influences have changed in the past, with rising water vapor more important during deglaciation, whereas cloud feedbacks dominated during the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fate of the enormous amount of reactive nitrogen released to the environment by human activities in India is unknown. Here we show occurrence of seasonal stratification and generally low concentrations of dissolved inorganic combined nitrogen, and high molecular nitrogen (N2) to argon ratio, thus suggesting seasonal loss to N2 in anoxic hypolimnia of several dam-reservoirs. However, 15N-experiments yielded low rates of denitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium--except in the presence of methane (CH4) that caused ~12-fold increase in denitrification. While nitrite-dependent anaerobic methanotrophs belonging to the NC10 phylum were present, previously considered aerobic methanotrophs were far more abundant (up to 13.9%) in anoxic hypolimnion. Methane accumulation in anoxic freshwater systems seems to facilitate rapid loss of reactive nitrogen, with generally low production of nitrous oxide (N2O), through widespread coupling between methanotrophy and denitrification, potentially mitigating eutrophication and emissions of CH4 and N2O to the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading contributor to diseases in India. Previous studies analysing emission source attributions were restricted by coarse model resolution and limited PM2.5 observations. We use a regional model informed by new observations to make the first high-resolution study of the sector-specific disease burden from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India. Observed annual mean PM2.5 concentrations exceed 100 μgm−3 and are well simulated by the model. We calculate that the emissions from residential energy use dominate (52%) population-weighted annual mean PM2.5 concentrations, and are attributed to 511,000 (95UI: 340,000–697,000) premature mortalities annually. However, removing residential energy use emissions would avert only 256,000 (95UI: 162,000–340,000), due to the non-linear exposure–response relationship causing health effects to saturate at high PM2.5 concentrations. Consequently, large reductions in emissions will be required to reduce the health burden from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premature mortality from current ambient fine particulate (PM2.5) exposure in India is large, but the trend under climate change is unclear. Here we estimate ambient PM2.5 exposure up to 2100 by applying the relative changes in PM2.5 from baseline period (2001–2005) derived from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to the satellite-derived baseline PM2.5. We then project the mortality burden using socioeconomic and demographic projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Ambient PM2.5 exposure is expected to peak in 2030 under the RCP4.5 and in 2040 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Premature mortality burden is expected to be 2.4–4 and 28.5–38.8% higher under RCP8.5 scenario relative to the RCP4.5 scenario in 2031–2040 and 2091–2100, respectively. Improved health conditions due to economic growth are expected to compensate for the impact of changes in population and age distribution, leading to a reduction in per capita health burden from PM2.5 for all scenarios except the combination of RCP8.5 exposure and SSP3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite its importance for the targeting of interventions, little is known about the degree to which cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors cluster within different socio-geographic levels in South Asia. Using two jointly nationally representative household surveys, which sampled 1,082,100 adults across India, we compute the intra-cluster correlation coefficients (ICCs) of five major CVD risk factors (raised blood glucose, raised blood pressure, smoking, overweight, and obesity) at the household, community, district, and state level. Here we show that except for smoking, the level of clustering is generally highest for households, followed by communities, districts, and then states. On average, more economically developed districts have a higher household ICC in rural areas. These findings provide critical information for sample size calculations of cluster-randomized trials and household surveys, and inform the targeting of policies and prevention programming aimed at reducing CVD in India. Despite its importance for the targeting of interventions, little is known about the degree to which cardiovascular risk factors cluster within different socio-geographic levels in South Asia. Here the authors report on a cross-sectional study identifying wide variations in the clustering between risk factors and socio-geographic levels in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Irrigation has been pivotal in wheat's rise as a major crop in India and is likely to be increasingly important as an adaptation response to climate change. Here we use historical data across 40 years to quantify the contribution of irrigation to wheat yield increases and the extent to which irrigation reduces sensitivity to heat. We estimate that national yields in the 2000s are 13% higher than they would have been without irrigation trends since 1970. Moreover, irrigated wheat exhibits roughly one-quarter of the heat sensitivity estimated for fully rainfed conditions. However, yield gains from irrigation expansion have slowed in recent years and negative impacts of warming have continued to accrue despite lower heat sensitivity from the widespread expansion of irrigation. We conclude that as constraints on expanding irrigation become more binding, furthering yield gains in the face of additional warming is likely to present an increasingly difficult challenge. Irrigation buffers crop yields from extreme weather, but comes at environmental costs. Here the authors show that in India irrigation has improved wheat yield and reduced its sensitivity to heat, yet further increases are unlikely to offset the impact of warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Situated at over 5,000 meters above sea level in the Himalayan Mountains, Roopkund Lake is home to the scattered skeletal remains of several hundred individuals of unknown origin. We report genome-wide ancient DNA for 38 skeletons from Roopkund Lake, and find that they cluster into three distinct groups. A group of 23 individuals have ancestry that falls within the range of variation of present-day South Asians. A further 14 have ancestry typical of the eastern Mediterranean. We also identify one individual with Southeast Asian-related ancestry. Radiocarbon dating indicates that these remains were not deposited simultaneously. Instead, all of the individuals with South Asian-related ancestry date to ~800 CE (but with evidence of being deposited in more than one event), while all other individuals date to ~1800 CE. These differences are also reflected in stable isotope measurements, which reveal a distinct dietary profile for the two main groups. Remains of several hundred humans are scattered around Roopkund Lake, situated over 5,000 meters above sea level in the Himalayan Mountains. Here the authors analyze genome-wide data from 38 skeletons and find 3 clusters with different ancestries and dates, showing the people were desposited in multiple catastrophic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]